Gerry Pease: A Syzygy pattern emerges!

Posted: February 6, 2012 by tallbloke in Astrophysics, Solar physics, solar system dynamics
A Syzygy Pattern Emerges!  by G.E. Pease
For this follow-up post I decided to re-examine, edit, re-tabulate, and extend the previously listed major solar-planetary syzygies. As in the previous post, I use the U.S. date format of month/day/year. These syzygies are still each limited to alignments of the Sun and at least three planets. I again start with the two syzygies straddling the solar cycle 23 peak in April 2000 and end with an 8/27/2027 syzygy that is probably later than cycle 25 maximum.  The current tabulation includes Uranus-resonant and Neptune-resonant syzygies, for reasons I will explain later in this post.  I have also eliminated syzygies that I had previously characterized as poorly or imperfectly aligned and even found some that I had not noticed previously. The latest SIDC sunspot number (SSN) plot and two consecutive syzygy delta t magnitude plots that I made are shown below.

The largest Delta t magnitudes in the first Delta t scatter plot roughly coincide with solar cycle 23 SSN maximum in 2000 and with cycle 24 anticipated maximum possibly as early as late 2012 or as late as 2014.  The second plot also shows cycle 25 indicated maximum to be possibly as late as 2027.  In addition, the plots show a pattern of declining Delta t magnitudes following cycles 23 and 24 max. The first Delta t plot shows the declining Delta t intervals ending in 2011, about two years after cycle 23 min.  Those two years encompass many cycle 24 slow-ramp-up SSN points. If the increase in frequency of the Delta t intervals through 2011 turns out to be a causation factor behind the prolonged cycle 23 minimum, it could also explain the observed slow ramp-up to cycle 24 max following cycle 23 min. The last plot shows a Delta t decline ending in 2019, only about six years after cycle 24 max. This may be a possible indication that the minimum following cycle 24 max and preceding cycle 25 max will be very short.  The large Delta t amplitude of 1.339 years in 2023 may, however, portend cycle 25 max as late as 2027 because the next syzygy occurs on 8/10/2027, 1.3616 years later than the 3/31/2026 syzygy.
Now for my reason for adding the Uranus-resonant and Neptune-resonant syzygies. I realize that Uranus and Neptune have negligible tide-producing effects on the Sun because of their great distance from old Sol. However, resonance theory dictates that in any given solar cycle, these particular three-planet-and-Sun syzygies are unlikely to exist at random, nor would the associated alignments of the other two planets and Sun also exist randomly if Uranus and Neptune did not exist. The three-planet-and-Sun Uranus-resonant and Neptune-resonant syzygies need to be included in the tabulation because they contain non-random two-planet-and-Sun alignments that have possible solar tachyline interaction properties. The main reason I restricted syzygies to three-planet syzygies in the first place is that syzygies of just two planets and the Sun are likely to occur by chance alone, and there are a huge number of these random alignments that would just add noise to a plot. Even if one of the two planets happens to be Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, or Neptune it is probably not possible to know which of those particular two-planet-and-Sun syzygies are resonant syzygies and which are random syzygies, but, again, the total number of random two-planet-and-Sun syzygies during any particular solar cycle is huge. I don’t know if anyone has determined what percentage of two-planet-and-Sun syzygies might be resonant as opposed to random when one of the planets is Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, or Neptune. If the correlation of Delta t magnitude to SSN development holds through cycles 24 and 25, this percentage might be a good statistical quantity to determine and try to take into account in the future for the purpose of estimating solar activity prediction uncertainties.
As before, the syzygies can be examined graphically using
in heliocentric ecliptic longitude and latitude as a function of time in JPL’s HORIZON ephemeris tool.
In the tabulation below, S,M,V,E,J,U,N denote Sun, Mercury, Venus, Earth, Jupiter, Uranus, Neptune
10/24/1998 1998.813699 10/24/1998 Saturn&ESV
5/9/2000 2000.355191 5/9/2000 JMSE
5/9/2000 2000.355191 5/9/2000 SMSE
6/17/2000 2000.461749 6/17/2000 Saturn&JSM
7/9/2000 2000.521858 7/9/2000 EMS&Mars
9/19/2000 2000.718579 9/19/2000 JSME
6/14/2001 2001.452055 6/14/2001 JSME&Mars
4/18/2002 2002.29589 4/18/2002 Mars&VMS
7/20/2002 2002.550685 7/20/2002 JMSE
11/27/2002 2002.906849 11/27/2002 Saturn&VSM
12/12/2002 2002.947945 12/12/2002 NSMJ
12/27/2002 2002.989041 12/27/2002 NSVJ
8/21/2003 2003.638356 8/21/2003 JVSE
10/10/2003 2003.775342 10/10/2003 USMJ
3/4/2004 2004.174863 3/4/2004 JESM
10/2/2004 2004.754098 10/2/2004 J&Mars&MS
3/29/2005 2005.241096 3/29/2005 EMSV
4/1/2005 2005.249315 4/1/2005 JMSV
4/3/2005 2005.254795 4/3/2005 JESV
6/13/2005 2005.449315 6/13/2005 N&Mars&SM
6/15/2005 2005.454795 6/15/2005 N&Mars&SV
1/27/2006 2006.073973 1/27/2006 Saturn & ESM
1/29/2006 2006.079452 1/29/2006 NMSV
6/5/2006 2006.427397 6/5/2006 UVSM
11/11/2006 2006.863014 11/11/2006 JVSM
11/24/2006 2006.89863 11/24/2006 Saturn&MSN
12/31/2006 2007 12/31/2006 NVS&Saturn
8/17/2007 2007.627397 8/17/2007 EVSM&Saturn
11/2/2007 2007.838356 11/2/2007 JSMV
12/21/2007 2007.972603 12/21/2007 JMSE
4/5/2008 2008.262295 4/5/2008 Saturn & SMV
6/8/2008 2008.437158 6/8/2008 EMSV
10/23/2008 2008.811475 10/23/2008 JVSM
11/29/2008 2008.912568 11/29/2008 ESM&Mars
3/29/2009 2009.241096 3/29/2009 EVSM
8/10/2009 2009.608219 8/10/2009 Mars&VSM
9/11/2009 2009.69589 9/11/2009 NJMS
1/5/2010 2010.013699 1/5/2010 EMSV
4/13/2010 2010.282192 4/13/2010 JSM&Mars
6/9/2010 2010.438356 6/9/2010 JMSV
10/6/2010 2010.764384 10/6/2010 UJVS
10/12/2010 2010.780822 10/12/2010 Saturn&MSV
2/3/2011 2011.093151 2/3/2011 Saturn&VSJ
2/23/2011 2011.147945 2/23/2011 N& Mars&MS
3/5/2011 2011.175342 3/5/2011 Saturn&SMJ
8/16/2011 2011.624658 8/16/2011 EMSV
5/24/2012 2012.396175 5/24/2012 JMSV
8/22/2012 2012.642077 8/22/2012 JMS&Mars
5/10/2013 2013.356164 5/10/2013 Saturn&SM&Mars
8/14/2013 2013.619178 8/14/2013 J&Mars&MS
5/8/2014 2014.350685 5/8/2014 JMSV
10/15/2014 2014.789041 10/15/2014 UMSV
10/17/2014 2014.794521 10/17/2014 EMSV
12/30/2014 2014.99726 12/30/2014 JSMV
2/14/2015 2015.123288 2/14/2015 U&Mars&SM
3/1/2015 2015.164384 3/1/2015 Saturn&MSV
11/29/2015 2015.912329 11/29/2015 NS&Mars&J
5/2/2016 2016.336066 5/2/2016 UVSM
9/27/2016 2016.740437 9/27/2016 Saturn&VSM
12/16/2016 2016.959016 12/16/2016 UVMS
3/3/2017 2017.169863 3/3/2017 NMSE
7/15/2017 2017.536986 7/15/2017 USMJ
7/29/2017 2017.575342 7/29/2017 UVSJ
10/21/2017 2017.805479 10/21/2017 NSV&Mars
3/4/2018 2018.172603 3/4/2018 J&Mars&SM
6/9/2018 2018.438356 6/9/2018 Saturn&Mars&SM
7/5/2018 2018.509589 7/5/2018 USMV
10/25/2018 2018.816438 10/25/2018 UEVS
2/16/2019 2019.128767 2/16/2019 UMSV
2/24/2019 2019.150685 2/24/2019 JSM&Mars
8/23/2019 2019.643836 8/23/2019 ESV&Mars
9/3/2019 2019.673973 9/3/2019 ESM&Mars
1/12/2020 2020.032787 1/12/2020 Saturn&MSE
5/15/2020 2020.371585 5/15/2020 J&Mars&SM
9/4/2020 2020.677596 9/4/2020 UVSM
11/8/2020 2020.855191 11/8/2020 Saturn&JSM
5/4/2021 2021.339726 5/4/2021 Saturn&SM&Mars
8/2/2021 2021.586301 8/2/2021 Saturn&ESM
11/9/2022 2022.857534 11/9/2022 UESM
3/12/2024 2024.196721 3/12/2024 UJMS
9/13/2024 2024.702186 9/13/2024 U&Mars&SV
1/19/2025 2025.052055 1/19/2025 JVSM
3/31/2026 2026.246575 3/31/2026 UVSM
8/10/2027 2027.608219 8/10/2027 ESMV

The second and third of the above syzygies are interesting examples of two syzygies that occur on the same day.  A close examination of their heliocentric ecliptic longitudes and latitudes using JPL’s HORIZONS planetary ephemeris web-interface enables more precise determination of the syzygy times and of angular accuracies associated with each alignment, if such information is desired.  In this case, it is evident that the JMSE syzygy is a better alignment than the SMSE syzygy that occurs later on May 9.  Notice also how the rapid motion of Mercury compared with the other planets largely determines both syzygy times.

Target body name: Mercury (199)
****************************************
$$SOE
Date__(UT)__HR:MN     hEcl-Lon hEcl-Lat
****************************************
2000-May-08 22:00      47.4096  -0.1131
2000-May-08 23:00      47.6603  -0.0823
2000-May-09 00:00      47.9112  -0.0515
2000-May-09 01:00      48.1622  -0.0207
2000-May-09 02:00      48.4135   0.0102
2000-May-09 03:00      48.6649   0.0411
2000-May-09 04:00      48.9165   0.0720
2000-May-09 05:00      49.1683   0.1030
2000-May-09 06:00      49.4203   0.1339
2000-May-09 07:00      49.6725   0.1649
2000-May-09 08:00      49.9248   0.1959
2000-May-09 09:00      50.1774   0.2269
2000-May-09 10:00      50.4301   0.2579
2000-May-09 11:00      50.6830   0.2890
2000-May-09 12:00      50.9361   0.3201
2000-May-09 13:00      51.1893   0.3511
2000-May-09 14:00      51.4427   0.3822
2000-May-09 15:00      51.6963   0.4133
2000-May-09 16:00      51.9501   0.4445
2000-May-09 17:00      52.2040   0.4756
Target body name: Earth (399)
Date__(UT)__HR:MN     hEcl-Lon hEcl-Lat
****************************************
$$SOE2000-May-08 08:00     228.0322   0.0002
2000-May-08 09:00     228.0725   0.0001
2000-May-08 10:00     228.1128   0.0001
2000-May-08 11:00     228.1531   0.0001
2000-May-08 12:00     228.1934   0.0001
2000-May-08 13:00     228.2337   0.0001
2000-May-08 14:00     228.2740   0.0001
2000-May-08 15:00     228.3143   0.0001
2000-May-08 16:00     228.3546   0.0001
2000-May-08 17:00     228.3949   0.0001
2000-May-08 18:00     228.4352   0.0001
2000-May-08 19:00     228.4755   0.0001
2000-May-08 20:00     228.5158   0.0001
2000-May-08 21:00     228.5561   0.0001
2000-May-08 22:00     228.5964   0.0001
2000-May-08 23:00     228.6367   0.0001
2000-May-09 00:00     228.6770   0.0001
2000-May-09 01:00     228.7173   0.0001
2000-May-09 02:00     228.7576   0.0001
2000-May-09 03:00     228.7979   0.0001
2000-May-09 04:00     228.8382   0.0001
2000-May-09 05:00     228.8785   0.0001
2000-May-09 06:00     228.9188   0.0001
2000-May-09 07:00     228.9590   0.0001
2000-May-09 08:00     228.9993   0.0001
2000-May-09 09:00     229.0396   0.0001
2000-May-09 10:00     229.0799   0.0001
2000-May-09 11:00     229.1202   0.0001
2000-May-09 12:00     229.1605   0.0001
2000-May-09 13:00     229.2008   0.0001
2000-May-09 14:00     229.2410   0.0001
2000-May-09 15:00     229.2813   0.0001
2000-May-09 16:00     229.3216   0.0001
2000-May-09 17:00     229.3619   0.0001
Target body name: Jupiter (599)
Date__(UT)__HR:MN     hEcl-Lon hEcl-Lat
****************************************
$$SOE
2000-May-08 00:00      47.8672  -1.0368
2000-May-08 01:00      47.8710  -1.0368
2000-May-08 02:00      47.8747  -1.0367
2000-May-08 03:00      47.8785  -1.0367
2000-May-08 04:00      47.8823  -1.0366
2000-May-08 05:00      47.8860  -1.0366
2000-May-08 06:00      47.8898  -1.0365
2000-May-08 07:00      47.8936  -1.0365
2000-May-08 08:00      47.8973  -1.0364
2000-May-08 09:00      47.9011  -1.0364
2000-May-08 10:00      47.9048  -1.0363
2000-May-08 11:00      47.9086  -1.0363
2000-May-08 12:00      47.9124  -1.0362
2000-May-08 13:00      47.9161  -1.0362
2000-May-08 14:00      47.9199  -1.0361
2000-May-08 15:00      47.9237  -1.0361
2000-May-08 16:00      47.9274  -1.0360
2000-May-08 17:00      47.9312  -1.0359
2000-May-08 18:00      47.9350  -1.0359
2000-May-08 19:00      47.9387  -1.0358
2000-May-08 20:00      47.9425  -1.0358
2000-May-08 21:00      47.9463  -1.0357
2000-May-08 22:00      47.9500  -1.0357
2000-May-08 23:00      47.9538  -1.0356
2000-May-09 00:00      47.9576  -1.0356
2000-May-09 01:00      47.9613  -1.0355
2000-May-09 02:00      47.9651  -1.0355
2000-May-09 03:00      47.9689  -1.0354
2000-May-09 04:00      47.9726  -1.0354
2000-May-09 05:00      47.9764  -1.0353
2000-May-09 06:00      47.9802  -1.0353
2000-May-09 07:00      47.9839  -1.0352
2000-May-09 08:00      47.9877  -1.0352
2000-May-09 09:00      47.9915  -1.0351
2000-May-09 10:00      47.9952  -1.0351
2000-May-09 11:00      47.9990  -1.0350
2000-May-09 12:00      48.0028  -1.0350
2000-May-09 13:00      48.0065  -1.0349
2000-May-09 14:00      48.0103  -1.0349
2000-May-09 15:00      48.0141  -1.0348
2000-May-09 16:00      48.0178  -1.0347
2000-May-09 17:00      48.0216  -1.0347
2000-May-09 18:00      48.0253  -1.0346
2000-May-09 19:00      48.0291  -1.0346
2000-May-09 20:00      48.0329  -1.0345
2000-May-09 21:00      48.0366  -1.0345
2000-May-09 22:00      48.0404  -1.0344
2000-May-09 23:00      48.0442  -1.0344
2000-May-10 00:00      48.0479  -1.0343
2000-May-10 01:00      48.0517  -1.0343
2000-May-10 02:00      48.0555  -1.0342
2000-May-10 03:00      48.0592  -1.0342
2000-May-10 04:00      48.0630  -1.0341
2000-May-10 05:00      48.0668  -1.0341
2000-May-10 06:00      48.0705  -1.0340
2000-May-10 07:00      48.0743  -1.0340
2000-May-10 08:00      48.0781  -1.0339
2000-May-10 09:00      48.0818  -1.0339
2000-May-10 10:00      48.0856  -1.0338
2000-May-10 11:00      48.0893  -1.0338
2000-May-10 12:00      48.0931  -1.0337
2000-May-10 13:00      48.0969  -1.0337
2000-May-10 14:00      48.1006  -1.0336
2000-May-10 15:00      48.1044  -1.0335
2000-May-10 16:00      48.1082  -1.0335
2000-May-10 17:00      48.1119  -1.0334
2000-May-10 18:00      48.1157  -1.0334
2000-May-10 19:00      48.1195  -1.0333
2000-May-10 20:00      48.1232  -1.0333
2000-May-10 21:00      48.1270  -1.0332
2000-May-10 22:00      48.1308  -1.0332
2000-May-10 23:00      48.1345  -1.0331
2000-May-11 00:00      48.1383  -1.0331
Target body name: Saturn (699)
Date__(UT)__HR:MN     hEcl-Lon hEcl-Lat
****************************************
$$SOE
2000-May-08 00:00      50.3421  -2.2205
2000-May-08 01:00      50.3437  -2.2205
2000-May-08 02:00      50.3452  -2.2205
2000-May-08 03:00      50.3467  -2.2204
2000-May-08 04:00      50.3482  -2.2204
2000-May-08 05:00      50.3497  -2.2204
2000-May-08 06:00      50.3512  -2.2204
2000-May-08 07:00      50.3528  -2.2203
2000-May-08 08:00      50.3543  -2.2203
2000-May-08 09:00      50.3558  -2.2203
2000-May-08 10:00      50.3573  -2.2202
2000-May-08 11:00      50.3588  -2.2202
2000-May-08 12:00      50.3603  -2.2202
2000-May-08 13:00      50.3618  -2.2202
2000-May-08 14:00      50.3634  -2.2201
2000-May-08 15:00      50.3649  -2.2201
2000-May-08 16:00      50.3664  -2.2201
2000-May-08 17:00      50.3679  -2.2200
2000-May-08 18:00      50.3694  -2.2200
2000-May-08 19:00      50.3709  -2.2200
2000-May-08 20:00      50.3724  -2.2199
2000-May-08 21:00      50.3740  -2.2199
2000-May-08 22:00      50.3755  -2.2199
2000-May-08 23:00      50.3770  -2.2199
2000-May-09 00:00      50.3785  -2.2198
2000-May-09 01:00      50.3800  -2.2198
2000-May-09 02:00      50.3815  -2.2198
2000-May-09 03:00      50.3830  -2.2197
2000-May-09 04:00      50.3846  -2.2197
2000-May-09 05:00      50.3861  -2.2197
2000-May-09 06:00      50.3876  -2.2197
2000-May-09 07:00      50.3891  -2.2196
2000-May-09 08:00      50.3906  -2.2196
2000-May-09 09:00      50.3921  -2.2196
2000-May-09 10:00      50.3936  -2.2195
2000-May-09 11:00      50.3952  -2.2195
2000-May-09 12:00      50.3967  -2.2195
2000-May-09 13:00      50.3982  -2.2194
2000-May-09 14:00      50.3997  -2.2194
2000-May-09 15:00      50.4012  -2.2194
2000-May-09 16:00      50.4027  -2.2194
2000-May-09 17:00      50.4043  -2.2193
2000-May-09 18:00      50.4058  -2.2193
2000-May-09 19:00      50.4073  -2.2193
2000-May-09 20:00      50.4088  -2.2192
2000-May-09 21:00      50.4103  -2.2192
2000-May-09 22:00      50.4118  -2.2192
2000-May-09 23:00      50.4133  -2.2192
2000-May-10 00:00      50.4149  -2.2191
2000-May-10 01:00      50.4164  -2.2191
2000-May-10 02:00      50.4179  -2.2191
2000-May-10 03:00      50.4194  -2.2190
2000-May-10 04:00      50.4209  -2.2190
2000-May-10 05:00      50.4224  -2.2190
2000-May-10 06:00      50.4239  -2.2189
2000-May-10 07:00      50.4255  -2.2189
2000-May-10 08:00      50.4270  -2.2189
2000-May-10 09:00      50.4285  -2.2189
2000-May-10 10:00      50.4300  -2.2188
2000-May-10 11:00      50.4315  -2.2188
2000-May-10 12:00      50.4330  -2.2188
2000-May-10 13:00      50.4345  -2.2187
2000-May-10 14:00      50.4361  -2.2187
2000-May-10 15:00      50.4376  -2.2187
2000-May-10 16:00      50.4391  -2.2186
2000-May-10 17:00      50.4406  -2.2186
2000-May-10 18:00      50.4421  -2.2186
2000-May-10 19:00      50.4436  -2.2186
2000-May-10 20:00      50.4452  -2.2185
2000-May-10 21:00      50.4467  -2.2185
2000-May-10 22:00      50.4482  -2.2185
2000-May-10 23:00      50.4497  -2.2184
2000-May-11 00:00      50.4512  -2.2184
Comments
  1. tallbloke says:

    Hi Gerry, and thanks for this update to your research. It’s very interesting to see the approaches and reasoning behind them that other people employ in the hunt for planetary-solar relationships.

    My own work on the possible electro-magnetic relationship employs the analysis of alignments along the curve of the Parker Spiral, allowing for changes in solar windspeed. That gave me accurate timings for solar max and min over from 1880 using a composite reconstruction of solar wind speed variation. It didn’t tell me much about amplitudes though, and it will be interesting to see if your inclusion of the outer gas giants helps in that regard. They have a big effect on solar inertial motion, so I would think they should be involved, at least indirectly, if not in simple geometrical relationships.

  2. Fine work Gerry. I apply the synthesis of Sun, Mercury, Venus, Earth, Jupiter, Uranus and Neptune in my astrometeorological long-range climate forecasts.

    The solar activity prediction uncertainties are based on estimating the solar phase maximums in tandem with planetary configurations relative to the Sun of the outer planets, mainly those from Jupiter to Neptune.

    We appear to be headed climate-wise to global cooling. This estimation is from my own planetary calculations that show the next global cooling regime to begin in 2017 and last 36 years – to about 2052 – which is a number to be used when estimating climate phases.

    The solar phases within each 36-yr. cycle can then be ascertained according to minima/maxima – thus telling us how far we are, or will go into either global warming or global cooling.

  3. tallbloke says:

    T. White: Welcome. Your namesake Theodor Landscheidt also found the 36 year period to be of high significance in relation to solar cyclicities. The ~179 year quasi return period for the outer planets divided by his five-fold ‘big finger cycle’ gives that period. He made some uncannily accurate predictions using it.

  4. TG McCoy says:

    John Daly’s “Still Waiting for Greenhouse .” introduced me to Landschiedt’s ideas. I find them worth a look….
    Things are not what they seem…

  5. Ninderthana says:

    Gerry Pease and Tallbloke,

    The synodic period of Saturn and Neptune is 35.87 years. It is the alignment of Saturn and Neptune once every 36 years that produces the largest asymmetric motion of the Sun about about the centre-of-mass of the Solar System. The last few alignments where roughly in the years 1792, 1828, 1864, 1899,1935, 1971, and 2007/8. The next should be in about 2044.

  6. Ninderthana says:

    Gerry and Tallbloke,

    The time required for the syzygies of Saturn/Neptune/Sun to realign with the syzygies of Jupiter/Saturn/Sun is roughly 44.5 years. Given the elliptical nature of the orbits of teh outer planets, this alignment period shifts around a bit in time with only the long term average approximating 44.5 years.

    Remarkably, the realignment period between the Jupiter/Saturn alignment and the planet Neptune is extremely close to the time it takes the three largest terrestrial planets to realign with Jupiter.

    If we let SVE = synodic period of Venus and Earth then

    28 × SVE = 7 x (6.3946 yrs) = 44.763 yrs
    69 × SVJ = 44.770 yrs = synodic period of Venus & Jupiter
    41 × SEJ = 44.774 yrs = synodic period of Earth & Jupiter
    20 × SMJ = 44.704 yrs = synodic period of Mars & Jupiter

    This is why I think Jovian planets are primarily responsible for synchronizing the orbital periods of the Terrestrial planets and that it is the combined tidal influences of Venus/Earth alignments coupled with the gravitational influence of Jupiter that drives the level of Solar cycle activity.
    The tidal/gravitational influences of Jupiter/Venus/Earth upon the Sun just happen to be synchronized with the influences of Jupiter/Saturn/Neptune upon the inertial motion of the Sun.

    You can see my paper at:

    http://www.wbabin.net/Science-Journals/Research%20Papers-Astrophysics/Download/3811

  7. Ninderthana says:

    Of course, I think that the link between the periods of the Jovian planets and the Earth’s Climate is at least in part due to the fact that the long-term (more than ~ 5 years) changes in the shape and tilt of the lunar orbit are synchronized with the orbital periods of Jupiter and Venus. I recognize that there there is an important solar contribution to the Earth’s climate (e.g. the vorticity (i.e. wind speed) of the high pressure cells in the sub-tropics vary is step with the solar cycle. However, I believe that a lunar tidal effect upon the Earth’s atmosphere, oceans and solid surface (via the LOD) also influences the Earth’s climate. This tidal effect acts in resonance with the more dominant solar influence.

  8. AusieDan says:

    Ninderthana- what you are saying seems to link up with what Piers Corbyn hints at without giving too much commercial property away.
    I will certainly look at your paper although I am very much an outside, but it is this type of thing that first attracted me to the Talkshop.

    As an aside, I am at present very much attracted to the N&Z United Theory of Climate.
    I think that it is likely that they have identified what controls the long run average temperature on earth and other planets.

    Within that, I feel that it is quite possible that what you and others say on this site explains why the temperature varies up and down on a human scale and a historical scale as well.
    So I’ll keep on trying to learn more.

  9. AusieDan says:

    TallBloke – hi Rog,

    I find this fascinating, but all but unintelligible for an outsider.
    Is there anywhere an Idiot’s Guide to this stuff?
    I don’t even know what it’s called, but my intuition is picking up its ears and wants to know more.

    (I’m thinking astrology here as well, not the MSM type, but why did people like Newton study it for a longish time?)
    I’m also thinking about a famous share trader from the early 20th century, said to have made a fortune and his writings are replete with astronomical charts as well as rather unusual but conventional charting tools as well.

    And I’m a sceptic here as well, but not yet a denier.
    (Names will never hurt me – sticks and stones wise).

  10. Gerry says:

    I have a lot of mixed feelings about the solar cycle 25 indications. Certainly not what I expected, but it wouldn’t be the first time the Sun surprises. Maybe Landscheidt was right about how the Sun will behave after 2030. I guess the next syzygy Delta t plot should be for 2027 to 2041:-)

    In the meantime, I still regard cycle 25 to be very much an unknown. I’ll take the syzygy results with a big grain of salt – until I find what I’ve been looking for, of course 😉

  11. tallbloke says:

    Ninderthana: Hi Ian, yes, the Jupiter Earth Venus syzygies are the ones in which I found the strong correlation with the timing of the solar cycle, which improved a lot once I considered the electromagnetic alignments along the curve of the Parker Spiral (solar wind speed affected – and adjusted for) the most exciting results I got are found in this post.

    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2010/08/21/breakthrough-major-discovery-on-planetary-solar-connection/

    This plot down int he comments was the best developed:

    The ~45 year cycle is very strong, and manifests on Earth in the beach ridges found in places like Hudson bay and northern Siberia where the uplifting caused by eustatic bounce leaves a record of high tide points on that sort of timescale. Other longer cyclicities are evident too.
    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2011/06/30/further-terrestrial-evidence-of-planetary-cycles-affecting-climate/

    Dan: An overview of what we’re after can be found here:
    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2012/02/06/2010/01/15/what-is-the-solar-planetary-theory/

  12. Ninderthana says:

    Tallbloke,

    You might be right about the electromagnetic link through the solar wind Parker spiral and the planetary alignment. It is certainly an idea that needs to be followed up in more detail.

    In the paper that I cited below, it is not the tides of Jupiter that are important.

    http://www.wbabin.net/Science-Journals/Research%20Papers-Astrophysics/Download/3812

    [which was finished in 2007/8 long before the references you cite and it does not seem to be mentioned by anyone who subsequently has discussed this topic. And it would appear that a lot of my ideas were preempted by Desmoulins, J. P. in 1989 and again no one seems to cite him as well.]

    http://pagesperso-range.fr/jpdesm/sunspots/sun.html

    The direct gravitational force of Jupiter upon the Sun is much larger than all of the other planets
    and so I do not base my ideas on its tidal effects.

    My idea relies on a combination of the next two biggest planetary tidal forces acting on the Sun i.e. those of Venus and Earth. The combined tidal forces of Venus and Earth peak when these two planets [and not Jupiter] align on the same [or opposite sides of the Sun]. If you plot the angle that the Jupiter-Sun line makes with the Earth-Sun-Venus [or Earth-Venus-Sun] at the time of the Earth/Venus/Sun syzygy, you find that this angle varies in lock step with the Sunspot cycle. Not only that, the variation of this angle seems to intrinsically have most of the six major features of the solar sunspot cycle.

    In other words, all you need to describe the solar cycle timing [and possibly its amplitude] is the combined peak tidal force of Venus and the Earth acting on the Sun at the time of Earth/Venus syzygies – this produces a tidal bulge in the outer equatorial convective layer of the Sun, and the strength of the gravitational force of Jupiter acting on this tidal bulge, either in the direction of, or the direction opposing, the rotation of the surface layers of the Sun.

    This model shares many of the properties of models of Desmoulin (1989) and Hung:[2007], however, I developed my model in 2007, totally unaware of Desmoulin and Hung’s work

    2007, NASA report/TM−2007−214817, available at http://gltrs.grc.nasa.org

  13. Tenuc says:

    Thanks for a thought provoking post, Gerry, and for Ninderthana’s insightful comments.

    The paper, “Apparent Relations Between Solar Activity & Solar Tides Caused by the Planets” is no longer present on the above link, but I managed to find it available for free download here…

    Click to access 20070025111_2007025207.pdf

  14. Ninderthana says:

    You can also get to my paper via:
    \
    http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com.au/

    Cheers,

    Ian WIlson

  15. Wayne Job says:

    Thanks Tallbloke, the music of the spheres is found in the harmonies. Harmonics and their periods are dominant in the entire universe, the harmonics overpower the normal physics we apply to calculate the forces involved in the dance that is our solar system.

    A finely tuned voice can shatter a crystal glass. Thus are harmonics, they will effect and magnify electro-magnetic forces between the various planetary bodies depending on the alignments and the harmonics. To understand harmonics is the first step to understanding our universe and not just our solar system and our suns behaviour.

    To quote a scientist from way back ” an atomic bomb is a harmonic alignment of pure substances”

    The mathematical harmonic numbers that run the universe and our solar system are known and the reciprocals are used in atomic weapons for the destruction of matter.

    The harmonic numbers are found by distance, mass, declination from the sun and angular displacement from one another derived from the sine the cosine or the tangent and oft their reciprocals. If you can find the numbers and apply them to when the planets are affecting the sun you may be surprised.

  16. tallbloke says:

    Perceptive comment Wayne.

    I’ve found a couple of interesting reciprocal relationships here:

    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2011/08/05/jackpot-jupiter-and-saturn-solar-cycle-link-confirmed/

    The rate of rotation of the solar surface is linked by reciprocals to various orbital parameters of Jupiter and Saturn.

  17. Gray says:

    I have to echo what tallbloke has said in that an electromagnetic connection along the Parker Spiral offers a plausible explanation for the solar cycle timing and amplitude. The main problem has been deciding the optimum relative positions of the planets along that spiral. Given varying solar wind speeds, changing planetary distances and the differing latitudinal rotation of the Solar surface any researcher has a considerable challenge ahead in isolating a methodology for the process.

    For the outer planets particularly the syzygy positions are at odds with the optimum positions of planets on the Parker Spiral. However, the synodic cycle timings still show up in the sunspot record as they are merely based on different relative planetary positions but still at synodic cycle timings.

  18. tallbloke says:

    Gray, I said timings but not amplitude. I think Amplitude is likely more generally set by the solar inertial motion induced mainly by the outer planets, and the electromagnetic effects associated with the inner planets and Jupiter give detail ontop of the amplitude wave created by the big heavyweights.

    I forsee a ‘unified theory of solar planetary relationships’ on the horizon which will include all the mechanisms and effects discussed by everyone who has been researching this area.

  19. Gray says:

    Hi tallbloke thanks for the clarification. I’m not sure whether this process is wholly driven by the electromagnetic connection as the positions of the outer planets are certainly included in that connectivity. I guess the solar inertial motion may spark the electromagnetic connection in some way as part of a whole system. Or, does the Sun constantly send out a solar wind that is only stirred into activity when a pathway to the outer solar system occurs. I need to think about this.

  20. J Martin says:

    Ninderthana said

    The synodic period of Saturn and Neptune is 35.87 years. It is the alignment of Saturn and Neptune once every 36 years that produces the largest asymmetric motion of the Sun about about the centre-of-mass of the Solar System. The last few alignments where roughly in the years 1792, 1828, 1864, 1899,1935, 1971, and 2007/8. The next should be in about 2044.

    ————————–

    I notice that the Dalton minimum at 1810 (?) is exactly halfway between 1792 and 1828. So a cold spell in 2026 then ?

  21. Ninderthana says:

    J Martin,

    The cold spell has already started (~ 2008) and will continue into the late 2030’s, so it should be coldest between 2025 and 2030.

    START: 2008 COLDEST: 2026 to 2032 WARM UP late 2030’s END: 2044
    START: 1792 COLDEST: 1810 to 1816 WARM UP: early 1820’s END:1828

  22. tchannon says:

    Ninderthana, I’m not convinced it was generally cold back then.

    What I suspect is more of very bad weather without anything sustained. I’ve been working on some major posts which might shed some light. Still incomplete.

  23. Ninderthana says:

    Virtually the only no proxy record of temperature is the CET time series which is not representative of global conditions at the time. Hence, unless you a willing to base your arguments on proxies you must rely upon historical reports. Anyone who does this must learn to chew gum and walk at the same time i.e. cooling periods like the Dalton Minimum are often associated with an up tic in large near- equatorial Plinian eruptions which enhance the weaker solar cooling.

    1792 + 20 years = 1812 – synonymous with Napoleon’s winter retreat from Russia
    2008 + 20 years = 2028

    1792 + 24 years = 1816 – this was a cold period that was exacerbated by April 2015 Tambora volcanic eruption that resulted in the year without a summer (1816).
    2008 + 24 years = 2030

    The period 1812-1817 was one of exceptional volcanic activity, and the sheer volume of volcanic dust pumped into the atmosphere by these volcanic eruptions caused a general, temporary cooling in the earth’s climate around this time [particularly noticeable in Nth America And Europe].

    Reference: http://www.dandantheweatherman.com/Bereklauw/yearnosummer.html

  24. Brian H says:

    Ninderthana says:
    February 8, 2012 at 3:50 am

    …a general, temporary cooling in the earth’s climate around this time

    I misread/scanned “climate” as “crust” on first pass. Which makes me wonder: if the crust temporarily cools, would it open more vents/cracks for volcanoes as it contracted?

  25. Ninderthana says:

    Brian H,

    The actual mechanism that causes these periods of increases volcanic activity is still open to investigation. Maybe tchannon’s major posts will shed some light on this supplementary cooling mechanism. I look forward tchannon’s posts.

  26. Michele says:

    @ Ninderthana

    say:

    “The actual mechanism that causes these periods of increases volcanic activity is still open to investigation”

    Page 21

    Click to access invankacharcova.pdf

    heliosphere disharmony

  27. Ninderthana says:

    Michele,

    Thanks for highlighting Ivanka’s work. You will see that she cites one of my papers in her presentation: Wilson, I. et al., PASA J. (2008)

    Even she admits that there is no proven mechanism to connect SIM motion to volcanic activity.

    I take a stab at a possible connection between the Earth’s rotation rate and SIM in:

    http://www.wbabin.net/Science-Journals/Research%20Papers-Astrophysics/Download/3811

    and I believe that following two parallel sequence of events could explain the apparent link between the SIM motion and the level of vulcanism:

    Motion of Jovian planets ==> SIM ==> Solar Activity ==> (?) Earth’s rotation ==> Vulcanism

    Motion of Jovian planets ==> Long-term variation in the shape and tilt of the lunar orbit
    ==> Long-term variation in the Lunar tides
    ==> Long-term variation in the Earth’s rotation rate
    ==> Vulcanism

    It is possible that one or both of these mechanisms come into play. If both are operating, then it is likely that one reinforces the other.

  28. Ulric Lyons says:

    Ninderthana says:
    February 7, 2012 at 10:16 am

    Yes I found the Ju/Ea/Ve pattern in 2004. The big question in my mind is, are the alternate superior and inferior Ea/Ve conjunctions (in line with Ju) responsible for the solar dipole reversal around each maximum??

    On volcanoes, note the cold winter/s previous to the eruptions, they then blow on a stronger warm period after the chill, that`s the pattern.

  29. Ninderthana says:

    Ulric Lyons,

    Sorry Ulric, I should have mentioned that you were one of the original pioneers of the Ju/Ea/Ve pattern [2004] along with J. P. Desmoulins [1989]. I independently came up with the idea around 2007 only to quickly discover that you and Desmoulins had already proposed this idea earlier on.

    I agree that you are correct on the volcanic eruptions clustering towards the end of a cooling period. Does this mean that we could expect a few large eruptions around the2030’s?