Archive for February, 2012

Model planet, pure radiative

Posted: February 15, 2012 by tchannon in atmosphere, climate, Solar physics

planet-asym-pure-rad

This magic planet cannot exist but illustrates a simple thermal radiation only scenario, which is exactly linear, heating and cooling act the same.

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Here is a short interview with Ferenc Miskolczi conducted by the Examiner.com’s Kirk Myers. Kirk left this link on an article I posted here at the Talkshop at the start of 2010. It is followed by a copy of the letter Ference sent to the EPA during their ‘endangerment’ hearings.
The black line is the annual variation in atmospheric “aborbing power” over a 61-year period. The red trend line shows the greenhouse aborbing power remaining constant (in equilibrium) during that period. Greenhouse absorption increases (blue trend line) only when H20 levels are kept constant.
Examiner.com: Has there been global warming?
Dr. Miskolczi: No one is denying that global warming has taken place, but it has nothing to do with the greenhouse effect or the burning of fossil fuels.

The Hoff takes a novel approach to explaining the way energy moves through the Earth’s climate system and raises surface temperature above the theoretical limit of Holder’s Inequality without the need for any radiative ‘greenhouse effect’; illustrated by a simple electrical circuit.

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This paper pretty much refutes co2 driven global warming. We all owe a debt of thanks to Doug Proctor, who has put a huge amount of work into this paper over the last months. Some of the images have suffered in resizing, so download the pdf for reference too. It’s a long read, but then, you didn’t really expect the issue to be resolved with a couple of paragraphs and a plot done with Microsoft Paint did you? 🙂

Attribution of Variations in Maximum Temperature Records 1932 – 2010 Central United Kingdom, with Implications for Global Warming

D.Proctor, P.Geol.
Calgary, Alberta; December 30, 2011

Abstract

Previously sourced and plotted data for averaged annual maximum temperature and hours of bright sunshine covering the period 1932 to 2010 for the Central United Kingdom were analyzed. Changes in the two relative to a stable period (1962 – 1973) amounted to increases of 0.98C and 108 hours in 2010.

Three factors were found to be associated with all temperature changes:

  1. The duration of bright sunshine, such that C = 9.27E-3C X Sunshine hour – 0.10C. This factor was constant with time, but the changes in bright sunshine hours followed (with time) a quasi-sinusoidal pattern with indeterminate amplitude, but a peak-to-peak cycle of 62 years.
  2. A quasi-sinusoidal (with time) Pacific Decadal Oscillation-Atlantic Multidecadal Occillation-like variation, with a cycle length of 56 years and amplitude of 0.31C.
  3. A linear (with time), consistent increase of temperature, such that C = 9.53E-4 (Yr-1873) – 0.1425 C.

The majority of temperature change was due to the sunshine duration factor. The PDO-AMO-like varying factor contributed the second most significant portion of the temperature change record, sometimes adding and sometimes subtracting from the temperature changes associated with increased/decreased bright sunshine. The third factor was tied to the PDO-AMO-like factor as a long-term warming, but added only a minor amount, 0.095C/century.

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My apologies to Pål Brekke for the long time it has taken me to review this book. The last seven weeks have been a blur of intense activity for me, dealing with the aftermath of the police raid on my home, finishing and launching the new website for the University of Leeds faculty of Education where I work, and handling the publication and discussion of the Unified Theory of Climate.

Our Explosive Sun: A Visual Feast of Our Source of Light and Life
Pål Brekke

Click the image to visit Amazon and open a preview of this book

This book is lavishly illustrated with many images and diagrams which make it a pleasure to read. The sections on star formation and the solar system are delivered as plain fact, consonant with the standard model, with no hint of the possibility that we may not know as much as we think we do about the processes in the deep past which brought about the formation of the planets and our Sun. There is a minor error which may have been corrected since the proof version I read which has a caption concerning Venus directly below an image of Mercury.

Sections on the aurorae seen at Earth’s northerly latitudes and the solar eruptions which cause the goemagnetic storms which generate them are nicely woven together to give a good general overview of the links between the Sun, space weather, and terrestrial effects. Christian Birkeland gets a mention, along with a couple of really interesting photos of the laboratory in which he created his model planet.

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GREENHOUSE CONFUSION RESOLVED –

by Stephen Wilde.

First published 2008. Revised 2011 and 2012.

Foreword:

This latest revision of my 2008 article for ClimateRealists.com has been inspired by the recent paper from Nikolov and Zeller discussed here:

https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2011/12/28/unified-theory-of-climate-nikolov-and-zeller/

That paper appears to have taken the long established science involving gravity and the Gas Laws and refined it so as to show that the AGW theory relating to the supposed radiative capabilities of so called greenhouse gases is incorrect and unnecessary as an explanation for Earth’s surface temperature.

It also appears that other experienced and reputable scientists such as Hans Jelbring, Harry Dale Huffman and many others have previously pointed out the errors of the climate consensus in failing to give due weight to the Gas Laws which represent much longer established settled science than the relatively recent speculations about the supposed thermal properties of greenhouse gases.

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planet-rad-a

This is a very simplified conceptual drawing of a planet with atmosphere and lumped albedo, a partially reflecting layer in a thermal flux. (semi-silvered mirror if you like)

Why is the planet at the same temperature for any sane albedo? (more…)

Anthony Watts has kindly offered the Talkshop the exclusive on Ned Nikolov and Karl Zeller’s reply to the article by Willis Eschenbach published at WUWT, which we accept, gladly.

Reply to: ‘The Mystery of Equation 8’ by Willis Eschenbach

Ned Nikolov, Ph.D. and Karl Zeller, Ph.D.

February 07,2012

In a recent article entitled ‘The Mystery of Equation 8’ published at WUWT on January 23 2012, Mr. Willis Eschenbach claims to have uncovered serious mathematical and conceptual flaws with two principal equations in our paper ‘Unified Theory of Climate‘. In his ‘analysis’, Mr. Eschenbach makes several fundamental errors, the nature of which were so elementary that our initial reaction was to not respond. However, after 10 days of observing the online discussion, it became clear that a number of bloggers have fallen victim to the same confusion as Mr. Eschenbach. Hence, we decided to prepare this official reply in an effort to set the record straight. This will be the only time that we respond to such confused criticism, since we believe that the climate science community has much more serious issues to discuss.

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DRAFT 5, 8/Feb/12. by Bob Fernley-Jones AKA Bob_FJ

Here is the Trenberth et al energy budget diagram as extracted from their 2009 paper, it being an update of that in the IPCC report of 2007 (& also 2001):


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Over on our discussion of the mysterious planet Neptune, Talkshop contributor ‘Anything is Possible’ put up a comment noting a serious inconsistency regarding Wikipedia’s entry on the planet Mercury concerning surface temperature.

Anything is possiblesays:

Hey, everyone check this out :

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercury_(planet)

Compare the average surface temperatures given in the text :

“The mean surface temperature of Mercury is 442.5 K,[3] but it ranges from 100 K to 700 K”

with those given in the table )top RHS) :

Surface temperature
lat long min mean max
0°N 0°W 100K 340K 700K
85°N 0°W 80K 200K 380K

Explanations, anyone?
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A Syzygy Pattern Emerges!  by G.E. Pease
For this follow-up post I decided to re-examine, edit, re-tabulate, and extend the previously listed major solar-planetary syzygies. As in the previous post, I use the U.S. date format of month/day/year. These syzygies are still each limited to alignments of the Sun and at least three planets. I again start with the two syzygies straddling the solar cycle 23 peak in April 2000 and end with an 8/27/2027 syzygy that is probably later than cycle 25 maximum.  The current tabulation includes Uranus-resonant and Neptune-resonant syzygies, for reasons I will explain later in this post.  I have also eliminated syzygies that I had previously characterized as poorly or imperfectly aligned and even found some that I had not noticed previously. The latest SIDC sunspot number (SSN) plot and two consecutive syzygy delta t magnitude plots that I made are shown below.

Greg Elliott has kindly sent me the second part of his work on using flow diagrams to understand energy flow in the Earth’s climate system and the role of carbon dioxide in it, Part 1 aroused a lot of debate, and Greg has addressed some points raised and clarified his argument here in Part 2.

Use of flow diagrams in understanding energy balance – Part 2
by Greg Elliott

Introduction

In Part 1 of this paper we examined the use of flow diagrams in analyzing a planets energy balance and arrived at the following conclusions:

  1. Flow analysis shows that, CO2 back-radiation does exist, but is no different than conduction from the atmosphere back to the surface. If one warms the surface, then both warm the surface. If one doesn’t warm the surface, then neither can warm the surface.

This paper examines this question in terms of a more traditional “cause and effect” approach and in doing so shows the method by which non GHG warms the atmosphere.

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Winter Wonderland Open Thread

Posted: February 5, 2012 by tallbloke in Philosophy, Photography

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Chris Huhne, the Energy Secretary, has been charged with perverting the course of justice and now faces a criminal trial and the loss of his Cabinet position.

Mr Huhne and his ex-wife Vicky Pryce have both been charged with the same offence amid allegations that he asked her to take speeding points on his behalf. The pair now face the prospect of a criminal trial over allegations that they conspired to pervert the course of justice. The offence carries a maximum life sentence.

Miss Pryce, who separated from Mr Huhne in June 2010 following his affair with aide Carina Trimingham, told the Sunday Times that her husband had asked “someone” to take his penalty points following a speeding offence in March 2003.

This morning, less than an hour after the charges were announced by the Criminal Prosecution Service (CPS), Mr Huhne resigned from his position as Energy Secretary.

They will appear before Westminster Magistrates Court on February 16th.

Read the rest of the story

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Spot of bother at climateaudit

Posted: February 2, 2012 by tchannon in Blog

Site as it appeared 3rd Jan 2013

Seems as though Steve M.  needs a coin in the meter, alternatively there is more domain name finger trouble somewhere.

Oh dear, these things happen.

[UPDATE 5.30pm]

Well did you expect this?

From comments “tallbloke says:
February 2, 2013 at 5:24 pm

Anthony just posted:

My inbox has exploded in the short time I went out for coffee this morning. Steve McIntyre’s Climate Audit is now going to a park page for Aplus.net

1. No, it hasn’t been hacked.

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A Response to Certain Criticisms of the Unified Theory of Climate

By AusieDan,   February 2012

Summary

The Unified Theory of Climate has been developed by Drs. Ned Nikolov & Karl Zeller and demonstrates that the surface temperature (Ts) of eight different planets and moons is defined by a combined function of solar irradiance (So) and the atmospheric pressure at the surface (Ps). Willis Eschenbach has made a number of criticisms of this theory and while his attack has been vigorous, it has been easily withstood and has actually strengthened the basic argument. The theory emerges more robust than before. It is indeed a General Theory of MacroClimatology. Incidentally, by using the N&Z methodology, it is shown that annual average near surface temperature is independent of the level of atmospheric carbon dioxide. (more…)

The Talkshop makes it to the Bloggies finals!

Posted: February 1, 2012 by tallbloke in Blog, media

This is unexpected. It appears that the Talkshop has received sufficient nominations to make it into the final voting round for the 2012 Bloggies awards, in the ‘Best European Blog’ category. If you rate the Talkshop then head over to the Bloggies website and vote!

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