Michele Casati: Oaxaca Earthquake successfully predicted

Posted: March 20, 2012 by tallbloke in Astronomy, Astrophysics, Earthquakes, Energy, Geomagnetism, methodology, solar system dynamics, Tides, volcanos

Two days ago on March 18th, Talkshop correspondent and science blogger Michele Casati posted this graphic, along with a stark warning:

Planetary configuration dangerous

Click image for animation

Today a magnitude 7.6 earthquake struck Acapulco the Oaxaca region around a hundred miles east of Acapulco; our hearts go out to all those affected by this Earth shaking event.

Map of locations of quake and aftershocks: Click image for full size

[ Link to earthquakereport web site which has extensive coverage ]


Magnitude 7.6 – OAXACA, MEXICO
2012 March 20 18:02:48 UTC

Initial quake:
7.4: 16.66°N -98.19°W 20Km Deep
2012-03-20 18:02:48 UTC

5.1: 16.53°N -98.01°W 10Km Deep
2012-03-20 20:14:39 UTC


Michele has been working on developing the methods originated by Rafaele Bendandi in the early half of the C20th.

These additional graphics are Michele’s record of important events, indices and prediction tools over the last 27 months:

click the images for full size versions

Just a few days ago, Leif Svalgaard was telling our friend Vukcevic that earthquake prediction using geomagnetic data was “nonsense”.

It is nonsense to those who won’t open their eyes to understanding. If the bigger quakes such as this one can be successfully predicted with planetary and geomagnetic data, lives can be saved.

  1. http://books.google.it/books?id=O1Y0dpN6MIoC&printsec=frontcover&hl=it#v=onepage&q&f=false

    Jakubcová and Pick, 1987 I. Jakubcová and M. Pick, Correlation between solar motion, earthquakes and other geophysical phenomena.

  2. […] Comments Michele Casati on Michele Casati: Acapulco Earth…Michele Casati on Magnitude 7.2, Van, Turkey, de…tallbloke on Magnitude 7.2, Van, Turkey, […]

  3. tallbloke says:

    Bravo Michele! Fortissimo!

  4. Roger Andrews says:

    Chandeliers swung here, but that was about it.

    So far we’re getting no reports of significant damage or casualties. I hope that’s right, but it seems optimistic for a shallow magnitude 7.4 in a populated area.

  5. adolfogiurfa says:

    According to Michele we are still on alert until the 22th….on South America (see animation above) 😦

  6. Stephen Wilde says:

    I’ve not given much thought to this aspect of matters but have noted various suggestions that the Earth seems to be more seismically active when the sun is less active.

    It does seem plausible that if there is a planetary gravitational effect it might be a common cause of changes in the fluid interiors of both sun and Earth at the same time.

  7. vukcevic says:

    Here is my topence in:
    Vukcevic on WUWT 10th March 2011 ( 8 hours before Japan’s earthquake )
    Currently geomagnetic field is getting seriously shaken


  8. Tenuc says:

    Very good result, Michele, well done!

    We are currently lucky enough to be alive at a time when the sun’s climate seems to be going through a regime change. Who knows what effects we will observe here on Earth and perhaps it will provide learning moments for us as we begin to get clues as to how the universe works. The science is never settled.

  9. tallbloke says:

    Vuk, I’m trying to find the thread on WUWT where Svalgaard recently trash talked your work on seismic activity links with geomag. Any idea which it was?

  10. tallbloke says:

    One of Rafaele Bendandi’s charts which I annotated with moon phases.

  11. http://www.ncgt.org/newsletter.php?action=download&id=98

    excellent research

    Vinayak G. KOLVANKAR
    Former scientist, BARC, Mumbai 400051, India

    There is linear, predictions is not impossible !

    Abstract: During a study conducted to find the effect of Earth tides on the occurrence of earthquakes, for small areas of high-seismicity regions, it was noticed that the Sun’s position in terms of universal time (GMT) shows links to the earthquake-lunar distance together with Sun-Earth-Moon angle. This paper provides the details of this relationship after
    studying earthquake data for over forty high-seismicity regions of the world. It was found that nearly 98% of the earthquakes for these different regions, examined for the period 1973-2008, show a direct relationship between the Sun’s position and the earthquake-moon distance together with the Sun-Earth-Moon angle. As the time changes from 00-24 hours, the sum of the earthquake-moon distance and the Sun-Earth-Moon angle changes through 360o, and plotting these two variables for different earthquakes reveals a simple 45o straight-line relationship between them.

  12. tchannon says:

    Added link the earthquake report web site to post.
    “Earthquake in Guerrero – Oaxaca, Mexico – 500 houses severely damaged at least – but slight damage for such a quake”

  13. vukcevic says:

    tallbloke says:
    March 20, 2012 at 9:32 pm
    Vuk, I’m trying to find the thread on WUWT where Svalgaard recently trash talked your work on seismic activity links with geomag. Any idea which it was?


  14. Leif Svalgaard say :

    “….that earthquake prediction using geomagnetic data was “nonsense”….”

    Leif buy time-machine!


    SN low —- > IMF low —- > geophysical events up

    Eruption VEI5/VEI6
    9365BP – 9665 BP / 10105BP – 10325 BP /11315BP – 11615BP

    See sector n°2 and n°3

  15. Hans says:

    Very good work and for sure interesting to follow

  16. tallbloke says:

    Thanks Tim, I’ve added a map. The quake was around 100 miles from Acapulco, my mistake, I followed WUWT”s lead. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/03/20/earthquake-in-acapulco/

    Vuk: Thanks, that’s the one. I can’t wait for an opportunity for you to throw some of the links Michele is coming up with at him. 🙂

  17. tallbloke says:

    Michele: I made a comment in reply to the moderator at volcanocafe

    tallbloke says:
    March 20, 2012 at 23:21

    Hi, just to mention that Michele Casati made that specific prediction for the correct longitude and timeframe two days ago on my website. See the forecast link in the latest thread.


  18. Thanks,

    Administrator blog volcanocafe
    deleted your and me comments

    I have a question …..
    What is “method galilean”?


  19. tallbloke says:

    I have a question …..
    What is “method galilean”?

    I think it where they decided to make Galileo as blind as themselves.

    I left another comment for ‘volcanocafe’ to think about.

    “Congrats on your 1/2 million views, I passed that a few months before I won ‘Best European Weblog’ at the 2012 bloggies.

    I get around 3000 visits a day so quite a few people will see the screenshots of the comments from Michele Casati and myself which you censored.”

  20. adolfogiurfa says:

    BTW: A pedestrian bridge falls on bus,during the mexican earthquake:

  21. @ Rog

    I agree …

  22. Quick update to let you know Lurking replied


    He does look at it and, as Lurking always does, has done some plots for illustration although he does not see the correlation (due to declination I think but read for yourself). Had nice words to say about you too Rog.

  23. David Appell says:

    It’s easy to make earthquake predictions, simply based on probability.

    There are about 120 earthquakes/yr of magnitude 6 or higher:

    So the chances are good that there will be one in any particular 3-day period. How good?

    With 120 earthquakes/yr of magnitude higher than 6, randomly distributed, on any given day the probability of a M6+ EQ is about 120/365.
    So the probability of a day without such an EQ is 1-120/365 = 245/365.
    So in any 3-day period, the probability of not having an M6+ EQ is (245/365)^3 = 0.302
    So in any 3-day period, the probability of having at least one M6+ EQ is 1-0.302 = 0.698
    So if you say there will be an M6+ EQ in the next three days, you will be right about 70% of the time.


  24. tallbloke says:

    David, how many quakes of 7.4 and above are there annually?
    Planetary alignments (with 15 and 30o degree resonant angles) also cause quakes on the solar surface. See the work of NASA scientist Ching Cheh Hung.

    Click to access apparent-relations-between-solar-activity-and-solar-tides-ching-cheh-hung.pdf

    I’d agree it’s a young and underdeveloped area of science. However, that should spur us to investigate further, rather than dismiss it with facile statistical argument in my view.

  25. tallbloke says:

    Gingerzilla, welcome, and thanks.
    I tried to add a comment in reply to ‘Lurking’ but it seems my post went straight to the bit bucket. It seems I got added to the ‘blocked’ list for the heinous crime of confirming that Michele had posted his prediction on my site two days in advance of the event. 🙂

    Here’s what I said:

    “There are some successful predictions of ‘sunquakes’ (Large flares) related to angular relationships with planets in the appendices to this paper by NASA scientist Ching Cheh Hung:

    Click to access apparent-relations-between-solar-activity-and-solar-tides-ching-cheh-hung.pdf

    My conjecture is that electromagnetism is involved as well as gravity. I say this because I found that the relationship gets a lot higher R^2 value if you look at planetary alignments along the curve of the Parker Spiral and allow for changing solar wind speed.
    I can provide a link to my own study on that if the moderator will allow it.”

    It’s here by the way:

    Something worth noting regarding the plots done by ‘Lurking’ is that from Earth’s perspective, Mercury was on a tight epicyclic loop when the Moon passed between Mercury and Earth with the Sun directly behind. Lurking hadn’t picked up on the Lunar conjunction.

  26. example

    parallelogram planetary forces
    Bendandi work

    Kern County, California
    1952 07 21 11:52:14 UTC
    Magnitude 7.3

  27. origin studies…


    Rudolf falb


    Nicola Scafetta say :

    November 10, 2011 alle 9:51 pm


    I see that some persons insist with the thesis that a finding would be scientific only if everything is already fully understood and clear. However, I need to say that in scientific research one does not start with a full and complete knowledge about an issue. The full and complete knowledge of an issue is the conclusive step of a scientific research not its beginning. In scientific research people start with the data and try to understand what the data tell us. Then they try to model the phenomenon and/or propose possible mechanisms. This is what makes a theory. A specific proposed theory may then be further supported or rejected by additional research on the topic. This is the way in which science, in every field, progresses. So, there is nothing wrong if a single paper on an ongoing research does not explain in detail every possible issue related to the studied phenomenon, in particular if, as it is in this case, the phenomenon under study is extremely complex. And there is nothing wrong is such a kind of paper may contain some conjectures which may also be found wrong in the future.

    About the comments from Leif Svalgaard, I need again to invite him to read my paper before criticize it and to do that with a little bit of open mind (of course he does not need to open it too much because we do not want that his brain get lost somewhere).

    About the tides Svalgaard does not really appear to understand the issue. Time ago he was claiming that nobody in the past, before Newton, knew that the tides were induced by the moon. I needed to prove to him that in the past, on the contrary, everybody knew that the tides were induced by the moon even if the people did not know about Newtonian mechanics.

    Now he insists that I do not understand Kelvin’s argument about the tides because in his opinion I ignore Doodson’s work, which by the way I have referenced in my paper together with the work of Kelvin.

    Svalgaard does not understand the fact that it is not possible accurately calculate and predict the tides using the fundamental law of physics because of the enormous physical complexity of the problem, which is not limited to only know the existence of the gravity but also requires a detailed knowledge of a lot of other things including thermodynamics, fluido-dynamics and the fundamental local resonances. To overcome this ignorance issues Kelvin proposed a harmonic model based on astronomical cycles without putting any physics in it, but using astronomical geometry. Doodson simply expanded the argument of Kelvin.

    That the method of Kelvin does not require any modern quantitative physics but only a qualitative argumentation based on empirical astronomy is proven not only in the same works of Kelvin on the topic but also by the fact that an equivalent methodology was adopted since ancient times to predict the tides. One medieval work that addresses the issue and explains quantitatively how the tides could be predicted based on astronomical cycles is the De temporum ratione (The Reckoning of Time) by the Northumbrian monk Bede in AD 725: quasi 1000 years before Newton.

    big nicola

  28. vukcevic says:

    Svalgaard is very clever scientist, he does understand, but that doesn’t mean he is for progress, he is for the ‘settled science’ at best, or to be less generous, he is actively engaging in obscurantism.

  29. Wayne Job says:

    Ok, the time has come I feel to speak of many things, this post on Rogers blog and many more like it are starting to find the real causes of our Earth cycles. The AGW flawed science, if indeed it is science is crumbling, as it should and the last report at the IPCC will go down in history as an infamy.

    That said it is with great delight that I read these peoples scientific endeavours here about the roll played by our entire solar system and its harmonic nature, one is reminded of the harmony of the spheres of centuries past.

    It would easily noticed that the harmonies are tied to tangible effects by the data supplied by these people. Michele Casati posted about an Indian study that mentioned angles of declination.

    This blog post give many correlations of harmonic numbers that are somewhat like a musical scale. The true creative and destructive harmonics that actually cause earth quakes and perturb the sun in to behavioural differences can be found in the harmonics of nuclear physics.

    The angular displacement and declination angle of the solar bodies to the sun and to one another can give rise to the same harmonics as used in nuclear physics, for the triggers for nuclear weapons. The declination angle of the sun to the planetary bodies and the harmonics involved are the triggers of earth quakes and volcanoes.

    It would seem that some scientists are now getting the timing of earth quakes within days, you will need the harmonics of gravity and light speed in the derivation equations used in nuclear physics a good computer and it will be found that using your planetary alignments you can nail both earthquakes and volcanoes within an hour or two. They go off for the same reason.

    A nuclear weapon is a harmonic alignment of pure substances, such is the sun and as such is affected by harmonics.

  30. adolfogiurfa says:

    @Wayne Job:
    According to some people such “sound of music” is that of the realm of charge, electricity in waves and “tempos” determined by “size”, “wavelength”, dimension.

  31. adolfogiurfa says:

    @Dear Vuk:

    It is perfectly justifiable to protest if someone comes to remove the cornerstone of your home: Your house will be demolished!.
    So our duty is to show to the homeowner in question all the required details, then he will be able to know that he will build a more beautiful, simple and stronger new house.

  32. Roger Andrews says:

    I don’t think David Appell owes us an apology at all. He brings up an important point, albeit indirectly.

    And that is, at what Richter threshold can we consider a successful three-day forward earthquake prediction to be a “real” success and not a result of random chance?

    Here are the probabilities that the “success” is a result of random chance, based on earthquake frequency of occurrence:.

    Magnitude 6: 0.698
    Magnitude 7: 0.118
    Magnitude 8: 0.008

    Eyeballing a line through these numbers shows the 90% confidence level at around 7.1, the 95% confidence level at around 7.5 and the 99% confidence level at around 7.9. The 7.4 Guerrero quake misses the 95% confidence by only about a percent. Not bad at all.

    Incidentally, I’m scheduled to go to Guerrero next week. Is this OK?

  33. steveta_uk says:

    Sorry if I’m being stupid, but I cannot find the original prediction.

    The linked posting just says this:

    Low value of the heliosphere.
    High probability….
    No coronal hole, no sunspots, no CME.
    New moon and alignament Sun-Mercury-moon-earth

    I hope not exceeding magnitude M7
    Now …. solar maximum approach.

    There’s no location/date/time info that I can find.

  34. @ steveta_uk

    See date of the animation.

    20-21 march 2012

    48h global temporal window.
    No Actual area or continent.

    I am working on the methodology….
    working in progress.

  35. Earthquake over angular zone Moon-mercury
    See time and longitudine / latitudine.

    16.662°N, 98.188°W
    March 20, 2012 at 18:02:48 UTC

  36. tallbloke says:

    Michele: Wow! right in the zone. What is the angular relationship between mercury/moon/Earth in your graphic?

  37. Roger Andrews says:

    Exactly how does a planetary alignment like this trigger a 7.4 earthquake, which releases roughly the same amount of energy as a two-megaton nuke?

  38. tallbloke says:

    Nobody knows. What kind of energy continues to power an extended earthquake rumble anyway? Does anyone know that?

    Here’s a contour map of crustal thickness to be thinking about:

  39. Roger Andrews says:

    “What kind of energy continues to power an extended earthquake rumble anyway?” I can answer that from experience. It’s the high-energy terror waves emanating from the people being rumbled. 🙂

  40. Big post ……

    @ Talkshop
    I tihnk….the optimal situation for lightning.


    @ Roger Andrews
    What is the energy ?

    Magnitude 9.2 in the March 27, 1964
    Perfect alignment Uranus-Venus-Mercury-Mars

    Carrington event
    10 days before
    August 22, 1859
    Perfect alignment Earth, Venus, Mars and Saturn …..137°

    Tunguska event
    June 30, 1908
    Perfect alignment Sun,Venus,Mercury,Moon,Earth,Neptune

  41. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/usc0008mye.php

    Magnitude 6.7 – NEW GUINEA, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
    2012 March 21 22:15:05 UTC

  42. adolfogiurfa says:

    On this applet, which appeared at NIA:
    Set coordinates of the Mexican earthquake and time at 12:02:48 and you´ll see where all planets Sun and Moon were at the time of the earthquake

  43. Wayne Job says:

    When the harmonics of the solar system come close to alignment and the suns declination angle is close to a harmonic for a volcanoes position on the world the magma will heat and grow.

    If the alignments get close enough the volcano will erupt. If the harmonics become very close to alignment especially if two harmonics are close to alignment the volcano will catastrophically explode as some times occurs.

    Earth quakes also are triggered in this way, when these eruptions or earth quakes happen, you will also notice on the reciprocals of the harmonics an event on the opposite side of the world in sympathetic alignment, usually also occurs.

  44. Magnitude 7.1 – MAULE, CHILE
    2012 March 25 22:37:06 UTC

  45. mmmhhhhh…..
    I’m thinking …..
    Planetary configuration dangerous…
    Not only earth….

    21 march 2012



  46. http://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&sl=it&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fdaltonsminima.altervista.org%2F%3Fp%3D20936


    I said,
    April 18, 2012
    3° Configuration 19-20/05/2012

    Entry into New Moon (21), entry into alignment projection (Transit) Sun-Venus-Earth



    Magnitude 6.0 – NORTHERN ITALY
    2012 May 20 02:03:52 UTC

  47. […] Comments Phil on Nicola Scafetta: Does the Sun …Michele Casati on Michele Casati: Oaxaca Earthqu…Tenuc on Nation at the crossroads: Japa…gallopingcamel on Nicola Scafetta: Does the Sun […]

  48. Update graph 2012

  49. Entropic man says:

    Perhaps we should not get too excited. According to this record ten earthquakes occured in the region in four months, an average of one every 12 days. Picking a random date and predicting that an earthquake will occur soon is easy for a region alongside such an active subduction zone.


  50. Gray says:

    Hi Entropic Man

    I shall not be getting too excited either. Both pieces of evidence have alternative explanations. Perhaps Michele would like to offer a celestial viewpoint…

  51. Entropic man says:

    Gray, the maker of that video seems to be watching cloud forming downwind of the ridge lines East of the Salton Sea and identifying it as steam released from a fault line. More pseudoscience.

  52. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-246X.1986.tb04346.x/abstract

    Lunar and solar tidal components in the occurrence of earthquakes in Italy

    A. Palumbo

    Article first published online: 2 APR 2007

    DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.1986.tb04346.x

    A method for the determination of lunar and solar daily components of earthquakes is proposed. Its application to the most intense earthquakes with epicentres in Italy (from 1900 to 1983) provides for the first time large and significant lunar and solar tidal terms. The absence of significant results from the analysis of 9157 world-wide large shocks processed according to the proposed method and to routine spherical harmonic techniques indicates that the Italian earthquakes are locally tidally triggered.

    13 & 14 October
    11 & 12 November

    Concomitance input :new moon & lunar perigee
    High risk great big earthquakes
    Monitor the solar wind these days:
    If S.wind <350/400Km/s.

  53. Read previous post

    (Trigger lunar (13-14 October) ……….. Concomitance input: new moon & lunar perigee
    High risk great big earthquakes Monitor the solar wind These Days: If S.wind 400 km / s
    No trigger but solar EM trigger (CME & corona hole)
    See :

    Update from the Italian project
    seismic precursors


  54. Read previous post 12 September 2012

    “….. Monitoring 13 & 14 October and 11 & 12 November , Concomitance input :new moon & lunar perigee high risk great big earthquakes Monitor the solar wind these days: If S.wind <350/400Km/s.
    http://img222.imageshack.us/img222/3233/perigeonewmoonnovember2.gif ………."


    M5.9 Central Peru 10-11-12 h.:14:57
    M6.8 Myanmar 11-11-12 h.:1:12
    M6.2 Guatemala 11-11-12 h.:22:15

  55. tallbloke says:

    Well done Michele!

    What is the next prediction? I am concerned about the apogee at full moon later this month.

  56. https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2012/03/20/michele-casati-acapulco-earthquake-successfully-predicted/#comment-35280

    I agree Rog.
    We have to monitor the solar wind.

    See animation:

    24-25 November input new moon and
    input linee Saturn-Venus-earth
    very dangerous if solar wind is less than 400 Km/s.

    Important note

    The dates written in this post are :

    – General indication of global big earthquakes with Magnitude greater than 6.5

    – Interaction electromagnetic or tidal inside the solar system

    – geological impact events disclosure

    – MOST IMPORTANT : It’s not earthquake prediction.
    Currently, It is not possible to indicate the location of the next earthquake.
    Local or regional ….working in progress.

    can you update (important note) on this article (top) ?


  57. Very low solar wind
    295 Km/s.


    September 24, 2012
    I say :
    9-10 Input New Moon and lunar perigee of 13 and 12 respectively

    2012 December 07 08:18:24 UTC

    A tsunami alert has been issued after an earthquake off the coast of northeastern Japan shook buildings as far away as Tokyo.

  58. 29-30 December 2013

    The big earthquake is coming?
    Atypical region ?

    Input alignment Jupiter-Earth-Venus-Sun
    Input new moon and perigee (356.923km) for January 1, 2014

  59. Forecasting solar wind :

    It’s very low, confirms risk !

  60. My quote :

    “29-30 December 2013
    The big earthquake is coming?
    Atypical region ?
    Input alignment Jupiter-Earth-Venus-Sun
    and Input new moon and perigee (356.923km) for January 1, 2014”

    It’s started in my country !
    M 5.0 – SOUTHERN ITALY – 2013-12-29 17:08:44 UTC


    Minor Energy released ( currently large earthquake M<7) because a small magnetic storm in progress, and earth facing sunsposts magnetic growling and because the solar wind not very low (sw<300km/s.)

    It's continue next days.