Figure 1
Figure 1 centre trace has just crossed zero, solar axial magnetic dipole, another measure pointing to solar max.
However…
Figure 2
however the polar field strength continues to behave strangely, seeming to be zero avoidant.
Any new ideas on what is going on?
Sorry there has been a pause in blog activity, we are busy, in my case writing software, hedgecutting and so on (not sure either is sheer fun ;).
Takes time and effort putting together serious blog posts.
Posted, Tim Channon, co-moderator
Tallbloke's Talkshop 
Takes time and effort putting together serious blog posts.…And this is quite serious. Nobody knows if there will be another maximum and if magnetic polarity will change.
Vukcevic´s formula expected this crossing in 2012:
Figure 2 is one Vuk is showing but is not co-operating. This is what I mentioned previously, the possibility the sun is going into some kind of unipolar mode, yet the axial field (Fig 1) seems normal.
The sun is magnetically pretty complex so I expect all this is far too simplistic.
Or it could be following what happened in the previous cycle 23:
[Figure 1 from PDF]
“The most recent sunspot cycle thus presents us with the
interesting fact that the axial dipole-moment reversal occurred about a year before cycle
maximum (cf., Figure 1)”
Source:
.
Click to access schrijver08.pdf
.
According to fig 2, the polar magnetic field showed a ‘bump’ in 1982 and 1991 (during which the average polar magnetic field didn’t change) after which the polar magnetic field changed rapidly. We could now be in a similar ‘bump’ and so might expect to observe a rapid reversal of the polar magnetic field. (In 1982 and 1991 the magnetic reversals occured prior to the ‘bump’)
Well, I would say that reversals occur at cycle maximums ±3 years:). However, the black smoothed line has not crossed to the other side yet.
Patience, long cycles hesitate a lot – that’s why they’re long.
Tim – please check your inbox for an email from me re: blocking javascript on specified pages using a Firefox addon, “Yesscript”. Please feel free to delete this post.
10.7cm radio flux is also very low, and as this is a good proxy for UV and soft X-ray photons, could have a big effect on Earth climate through changes in the upper atmosphere chemistry, including less ozone production.
NASA f107 flux forecast here…
[Copy taken and is here]
[original live link here which will change when a new prediction is published by nasa –Tim]
As to what happens next, we seem to be in uncharted waters. My guess if for a prolonged period of quiet punctuated with sporadic sunspot activity and the occasional large flare/CME events. I also don’t think there will be a clear transition between SC24 and SC25, as the sun seems to be missing the usual polar magnetic field timing signal.
So to summarise, long period of low solar activity ahead, punctuated by large energy release events. Just hope these are not Earth directed!
Question to Lief about this with plot and his reply.
Guess we’ll just have to wait and see.
Yesterday’s SDO/HMI:
[ click for sinc resized 1024×1024 local image ]
[ Original 4096×4096 image here ]
Tim, you need the bigger image to see the difference at the poles.
What happens next? I think it will be a long cycle (longer than 12 years min-to-min, very likely longer than sc23), some indices are uncharted, others not really (ssn, timing of minimums…). My prediction is similar to that NASA Radio Flux prediction, only a bit more elongated (maximum in ~2014). Global temperatures will plummet in the 2nd half of this decade. Sorry for being alarmist.
Just came across an interesting plot of sunspots by solar latitude, courtesy Rob Bateman. This shows that the NH spots are drifting towards the solar equator in an orderly fashion, while SH spots advance then retreat from the equator.
The chart also shows the number of spots without a prominent umbra, which explains the reduction in the number of high energy UV and soft X-ray photons being produced this supposed maximum.
It almost looks like that since 2010/11 both polar fields are moving in unison towards the +ve:
as if a diode had reversed 🙂
There are two alternatives: Either we are witnessing, again, the 4th-5th solar cycle (the missing one) or the passing from the 5th Sun to the 6th 🙂
Ulric Lyons says:
May 29, 2012 at 12:51 am
It almost looks like that since 2010/11 both polar fields are moving in unison towards the +ve…
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They are – as shown clearly on this single graphic: