
Ian Laidlaw (left) with old colleague Prof Julian Dowdeswell, Head of the Scott Polar Research Institute
Yesterday I was privileged to make a visit to meet Prof. Julian Dowdeswell, the head of the Scott Polar Research Institute in Cambridge. This was enabled by one of Julian’s former colleagues at Aberystwyth University, Ian Laidlaw who now lives in my home town of Leeds. Along with another friend, Susan, we made the four hour journey down in atrocious rain conditions in Ian’s car, battling through near zero visibility as we passed trucks throwing huge spray plumes off the motorway road surface. Julian had an equally difficult drive from his home in Bristol. We laughed it off, when I commented that it wasn’t so bad in comparison to the conditions Scott and his party suffered in the Antarctic.
The Institute houses a superb new museum exhibition, endowed by the lottery fund (“too much paperwork!” says Julian). The first hour of our visit consisted of a full tour, accompanied by Julian’s in depth knowledge of the fascinating and evocative exhibits, which range from a fully equipped Inuit seal hunting kayak to Captain Scott’s personal camera and some haunting relics of the ill fated final expedition, including Captain Oates fur sleeping bag, letters from the team to their loved ones, and notebooks of meterological observations.

The entrance hall is topped by two domed ceilings, with painted friezes of the polar regions commemorating the ships and explorers.
Herbert Ponting’s photography was strongly featured, with many proprietary images available to view via interactive displays which used clever context sensitive systems to pull up ranges of photos to choose from. The other Polar explorers were well represented too, with personal artifacts belonging to Ernest Shackleton, and those of earlier explorers of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, including this ivory scaled thermometer from the 1820’s. The lighting is kept fairly low to protect the colours of fabrics and old photos, notebooks etc. Flash photography isn’t allowed either. Consequently my photos are not super bright and detailed, but I did my best.
Julian has spent a lot of time organising and making sense of in depth studies of old meteorological data, and explained how it is possible to track weather systems moving between simultaneously established camps in the Canadian arctic by comparing their data, including barometric readings, thermometer readings and wind direction and strength records. Fascinating stuff!
The ‘modern times’ section of the museum contains interactive displays and story boards covering why we still explore and measure the polar regions, climate change, and the international political aspects. We didn’t have much time to look at the interactive content on climate change, but it was standard fare by the look of it, without being too far over the top.
Prof Dowdeswell then showed us round the rooms of the institute the general public don’t get to see. The main reading and meeting rooms and libraries. The sense of history was almost overpowering, beautiful models of ships, an original broken spar timber over the door to the Shackleton memorial library was used as a signal flag pole by those awaiting rescue on Elephant Island, Scott’s own photographs, recently acquired by the institute, glass fronted cases containing rare books by Nansen, and hundreds of other polar explorers.
Then it was time for coffee in the prof’s office, and a discussion which went well beyond the cryosphere, and its original time allotment. I asked about satellite altimetry and airborne radar measurements. Julian explained in depth how on the ground measurements of the absorptive, reflective and diffusive behaviour of particular snow surfaces affects the bounceback energies of the radar and laser pulses, and how he and his team perform in-situ checks with portable equipment to enable the accurate calibration of the satellite data. Real empirical science which informs the models used to interpret the electrical impulses received back by aircraft radar dishes and satellite borne laser signal dishes. Resolution can range from 200 meters to many kilometers depending on conditions and equipment. Some serious number crunching goes on upstairs in the server room, judging by the array of cooling fans I spotted in the inner courtyard.
Then I asked about the causes of the glacial/interglacial cycles, which led to liveley discussion on the magnitude of temperature changes in the polar regions, Milankovitch cycles, solar variability, cloud cover, and ice rafted debris. The prof spoke of a swing of between 15-19C in the Arctic, which took me by surprise. I’m going to ask for more information about that by email. I have promised not to bombard him though. UPDATE: Prof. Dowdeswell has responded to say this was a slip ‘o’ the tongue:
“the glacial-interglacial temperature changes inferred from Dome C and
Vostok ice-core records are about 7-9 degrees C – I just checked. ”

Original photo by Capt. Scott of the Antarctic base where he and his team prepared for their fateful journey to the south pole.
We moved on to discussing climate science in general, and I put some sceptical viewpoints forward, which Julian listened to and gave considered replies, saying he thought my contentions regarding the need to await nature to perform a crucial experiment by giving us a climate inflection point which would enable us to separate possibly conflated and mis-proportioned forcings was a valid position to take. By giving us his own anecdotal accounts of his rejection of the infamous “Himalayan glaciers to melt by 2035” debacle, and his discovery of complexity in the subsurface geology he had studied which falsified long taught paradigms, we were left with a very favourable impression of a data led scientist who is open minded about attribution and the quality of model predictions. He wasn’t naysaying scientists who are experts in areas in which he is not, but he has a realistic point of view on how much we don’t know and are currently unable to model adequately. He believes we must continue to work on and improve models, but also accepts that the empirical lessons nature can teach may settle the matter before they become sufficiently accurate to accurately determine the relative strengths of the various causes of climate change.
We left with the strong feeling we had met a true scientist, passionately interested in his subject area, with a strong empirical leaning which keeps him travelling to make arduous onsite measurements. These qualities, along with his broad expertise in modern techniques coupled with an astonishing depth of historical knowledge gave us confidence that this institute of science at least is in good hands. He’s also a very nice guy.












Did you talk about the recent low level of Arctic ice? It would be interesting to add his take on the story.
We did. Julian is as well aware as we are that changes in wind conditions make a big difference to annual ice amounts. However, we all agreed that there has been a strong downward trend in Arctic sea ice, although this is in contrast to the Antarctic situation.
The question of the cause of that trend was left open, we didn’t see any need to belabour uncertainty about cloud or ocean currents, since we had already discussed various ways in which changing subsurface topography and other climate variables make attribution impossible.
I asked him about GRACE measurements, and he told us that he wasn’t an expert in that area, although he “had made some comments”, which he didn’t enlarge on, apart from to observe that the resolution is so poor it makes the data hard to interpret. He also noted that because various teams had used a variety of models to try to deal with issues such as land masking, there was a broad spread of uncertainty.
“Detail of the Arctic frieze,…”
I spotted that. Not becoming a ‘merchant of doubt’ are you, TB? 🙂
Folks we get to see a real world report and photos not usually seen. (which I like)
Reality is that certainty about much at all is the stuff of fiction or delusion. Nothing was going to be said on the record..
Question: what thermometer scale was used?
Tim, correct. Everyone needs to read between the lines a bit, and not get carried away while they do it. 😉
Tim, close up of the thermometer:
Fahrenheit on the left, Centigrade on the right
close up:
Now that is a surprise, dual scale in the 1820s.
It appears to be empty, a shame. Presumably was alcohol.
The glass stem is snapped about an inch above the bulb. No idea what the working fluid was. It’s hard to gauge the size of the capillary.
Mercury freezes.
Where are these measurements taken? If a site is normally kept close to zero Celsius all summer by locally melting ice then that range starts to look less surprising. The sodium chloride-ice eutectic is at -21 C, so local salinity, currents and mixing rates could also have a profound effect. That’s why I take all Arctic temperatures with a large pinch of salt…
Water will also help keep the temperature higher than otherwise as it freezes in winter.
freezing point of Mercury −38.83 °C
Range of scale
-68f to 108f
-56 to 42C
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcohol_thermometer
What a beautiful exhibition, right down to the timber from Shackleton’s crew!
But what’s this?
“…his discovery of complexity in the subsurface geology he had studied which falsified long taught paradigms…” That’s it? (;
Dr. Robert Ballard made some interesting remarks in an interview. He said that “No one is going to listen to you if you don’t have a PhD,” so he completed his doctorate as a matter of form. But then he said that most of what they taught was incorrect – an observation he was able to make as someone who had already extensively studied ocean floors in submersibles and through the Navy.
I’d like to find that interview somewhere.
Hi Zeke, I wish we’d had much more time. The prof is a veritable mine of knowledge, and many things were only touched upon. I guess we’ll have to look up his publication record and then choose a couple of interesting abstracts to start with.
http://www.spri.cam.ac.uk/people/dowdeswell/
TB wrote: ‘However, we all agreed that there has been a strong downward trend in Arctic sea ice, although this is in contrast to the Antarctic situation….The question of the cause of that trend was left open’
Solar variability? According to Fred Bailey regional forecasts of solar wattages are not a problem.
Quote:
“we also know the relative dynamic positioning between the Earth and the Sun, therefore we can calculate the solar chord length and thereby calculate the wattages received upon Earth, but not only that, we will know which areas of the Earth’s surface, will receive what wattages, thereby giving us Regional forecasts”
http://www.solarchords.com/solar-chord-science/3/climate-forecasting–overview/34311/
He also has an interesting slant on one of Franklin’s expeditions, including a prediction of cooling from 2019-2026, with his reasons.
http://www.solarchords.com/solar-chord-science/3/franklin-anecdote/33719/