Been a bit of a fuss and since I haven’t looked at UAH data for quite some time I decided to take a quick look.
Correction 10th Nov: I used the gridded data before it had been updated, Oct 2012 is missing. This has no material effect. Currently vortex server at uha is not responding.
I didn’t have current UAH data here. Turned out to be the usual pain of having to handle yet another version (goes into a database here in a common gridded format). TLS is unchanged, TMT and TLT have moved to version 5.5, more difficult than the “silent” dataset changes which do not get version bump but at least it is obvious there is change.
I don’t trust the dataset, keeps on changing. RSS is no more useful. And what shows up next time?
Seems to me that doing your best, at least trying and doing things, is right.
Figure includes 10 year low pass but to get up the nose of folks is end corrected. (about -60dB @ 10y) and much longer than the data.
The figure also shows two simple models, which are data driven (I just showed the data to software set to default apart from need to know and limiting size). This too involves a unique work. In this case it is a Fourier model but do you comprehend when I say it is non-discrete? Can’t do this with DFT or DFFT.
Experience tells me pushing past 4 terms on this data is unwise.
Such a model is time free (time and discrete output are arbitrary Nyquist excepting) hence it can sometimes extrapolate. Result here is moot, who knows, I don’t.
Seems to overlay reasonably… my data is computed from the published gridded version.
That should leave room for the unwary to have a go at me.
Now what does w/h mean? Withhold. This was arbitrary, guessed a sensible figure and used that. To end 2009.
(I’m very busy on other things, taking a break, so I probably won’t respond much, oddly perhaps I have not read the WUWT post or thread so maybe I am misunderstanding: seems Spencer was doing stats stuff without much warning yet he has done that often enough to make comment superfluous on a casual, I don’t like splines)