Major Arctic Oscillation Imbalance Predicted for the New Year

Posted: December 26, 2012 by tallbloke in Forecasting, general circulation, weather, wind

My thanks to Michele Casati for alerting me to this model run result from the French Meteo Service.

gfsnh-10-192

 

This would indicate things are likely to be warm and windy over the US and UK, and get very cold over Siberia and Russia.

Comments
  1. tchannon says:
    December 26, 2012 at 10:14 pm

    Well, Meteox disagree for the UK.

    This Friday a blow for north west Scotland.
    (don’t go near Iceland)

    Continues much the same as recently for most of us until change 1st/2nd Jan when a ridge of high pressure comes up from the south, little wind, chilly.

    My guess is we are at a switch point. Wait and see.

    Or here
    Storm
    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=84&mode=0
    High pressure
    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=0

  2. tallbloke says:
    December 27, 2012 at 12:18 am

    http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/12/26/cold-weather-across-europe-asia-kills-hundreds/

  3. Gray says:
    December 27, 2012 at 12:40 am

    Northern Hemisphere Snow and Ice Cover:

    http://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/northern_hemisphere_multisensor.html

  4. Doug Proctor says:
    December 27, 2012 at 3:34 am

    The planetary ying and yang.
    So
    In Calgary, where I am not, it is -32C. But in two weeks I will be. Warm is good. Cold kills the pine beetles that infest our forests, but even they take weeks of -35C. Everything else about cold is not good.

    So this warm-cold pair will chase themselves around the hemisphere until they merge?

  5. donald penman says:
    December 27, 2012 at 6:27 am

    How cold was it in January 1963 in the UK?
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_of_1962%E2%80%931963_in_the_United_Kingdom

  6. Stephen Richards says:
    December 27, 2012 at 9:11 am

    The french Meteo service is the worst in Europe. It is my experience that they ar rarely correct 24hr ahead and never correct 5 days ahead.

  7. Michele Casati says:
    December 27, 2012 at 12:36 pm

    Stephen, this post is a stratospheric dynamics, the implications for the local weather…next future … 3,4 January in troposphere