No sunspots at solar ‘max’

Posted: December 27, 2012 by tallbloke in cosmic rays, Cycles, data, Energy, Solar physics, solar system dynamics

Here’s an image of the Sun taken yesterday:



I wonder what the ‘official’ sunspot number will be…

  1. Bart Leplae says:

    Prior images for this month published on:
    Planning to update my paper : “Does the current Sunspot Cycle stagnate?” early January to include the December data and forward predictions for the coming months.
    I assume the forward predictions will be downwards adjusted for the 11 month on a row.

  2. Joe's World {Progressive Evolution} says:


    This is where I am trying to tell people that:

    Do not make ANY predictions UNLESS you totally understand the system.
    This does not mean the following of statistical data as if it were a god so that you can generate an projection of the future based on the past.
    There is NO actual repeating oscillation…

  3. Max™‮‮ says:

    Solar Max sounds like a pretty cool guy, shame he’s been so depressed.

  4. vukcevic says:

    December the SIDC non-smoothed (still five days to go) stands at 41.5, while the annual 2012 non-smoothed around 57.6 (2011 was 55.6).

  5. J Martin says:

    Time I invested in double glazing. Though surely insulation should be VAT exempt. How does paying a 20% tax on measures to insulate my house encourage me to adopt those measures. It would probably be cheaper to just burn more natural gas instead.

    HM government gives lip service to reducing co2 output on the one hand but encourages co2 production on the other.

    Domestic energy tariffs encourage consumption by giving a reduced tariff above a certain consumption, so the more you use, the cheaper it gets, the exact opposite of what is need to encourage a reduction in the use of energy.

    Pensioners and other lower income groups pay higher prices per unit of energy than the better off, courtesy of the standing charge pricing mechanism.

  6. Sparks says:

    A weaker solar maximum could be very good news for seeing a spectacular comet ISON, because it may not break up as it approaches the sun (as previously thought lol), it’s also the first time it has entered the inner solar system so it will have all that dirt and Ice locked up ready to put on a show, Fingers crossed!!

  7. oldbrew says:

    This 2011 paper proposes a link between low solar activity and a particular type of volcanic activity.

    ‘An anti-correlation of silica-rich magma eruptions and solar magnetic activity is found: Eight out of eleven eruptions took place in the period when the sun is not active’

    Pushing the boat out, it also offers this:

    ‘ We also speculate that the snowball Earth event was triggered by successive large-scale volcanic eruptions triggered by increased cosmic-ray flux due to nearby supernova explosions.’

  8. Kelvin Vaughan says:

    Max™‮‮ says:

    December 27, 2012 at 2:28 pm

    Solar Max sounds like a pretty cool guy, shame he’s been so depressed

    Did ever meet his wife Solar Min? She’s a bit of a cold soul.

  9. Max™‮‮ says:

    She got a little clingy from what I heard.

  10. Gail Combs says:

    For what it is worth Dr. S seems to be having rather heavy going over on WUWT as he continues to push his “The Sun does not vary, we are adjusting the data to show it” …er mmm stance.

    It is quite delightful watching him try to defend his position as the evidence against him piles up.

    A special thanks to Vukcevic for giving Dr. S. a run for his money all these years.

    One almost hopes for a 2C plunge within a decade to shut him and the rest up, though no doubt it would STILL be blamed on CO2.

    That the temperature is going to plunge is no longer in doubt since it has already started.

    Arctic- length of melt season – graph

    Shortening of the N. Hemisphere summer: N.H. October Snow Cover graph

    Ice Age Now: Winter storm listing

    The Russia and China are well aware of it and are making plans NOW, while our traitorous politicians continue to wreck our economies and any chance we have of surviving the coming cold decades in comfort.

    Canada also has woken up because she too can not afford to ignore the coming cold weather. The EU and the USA are going to get caught flatfooted and that is going to be very very bad politically.

  11. Gray says:

    As vukcevic says, yearly sunspot number provisionally 57.7 * and December’s count the lowest of the year at 40.8*.

    This suggests we are at the plateau of Cycle 24. For comparison I’ve posted the closest peak examples from the SIDC sunspot record below. Any guesses for 2013…

    1802.5 45.0
    1803.5 43.1
    1804.5 47.5

    1815.5 35.4
    1816.5 45.8
    1817.5 41.0

    1828.5 64.2
    1829.5 67.0
    1830.5 70.9

    1881.5 54.3
    1882.5 59.7
    1883.5 63.7

    1905.5 63.5
    1906.5 53.8
    1907.5 62.0

    1926.5 63.9
    1927.5 69.0
    1928.5 77.8

    2011.5 55.7
    2012.5 57.7*

  12. Craig M says:

    Piers Corbyn said of SC24 a few days back

    “Low solar cycles generally are longer than strong ones so even though some are saying the peak of 24 may have now passed it is reasonable to expect another (low) peak in this cycle – maybe around turn of 2013-14.”

    I recall Leif S expects a second peak and the levels are within his predictions lol. I’ve also enjoyed Vuk’s jousting with our esteemed solar specialist who believes knowing just 5% deserves a round of applause and back slapping. 🙂

    Gray interesting you pulled up

    1881.5 54.3
    1882.5 59.7
    1883.5 63.7

    That period SC14 is my pet interest. I previously commented on CET/EWP in relation to the Venus transit although my interest was initially based on looking back at Hale cycles. The 130yr diff would be 65 x2. I started looking at this period as precipitation records were standardised around then although the exact date eludes me I read it from Phillip Eden (MetOffice EWP is from 1910). He also commented in the same book that a dry patch in early spring is often averaged out soon afterwards – something I’ve observed in my own lifetime and why I had no confidence in the predicted drought.

    From Booty

    “A notably wet year by the EWP series – in the ‘top-10’ by that measure with a total of 1146 mm/~125% LTA. However, in the Kew Observatory record, the anomaly for the whole year was just 107%, with only four months having above average rainfall. This suggests that the southeastern counties of England fared rather better than elsewhere.”

    Now look at the Met Office map for 2012 RAINFALL ANOMALY 1 JAN TO 26 DEC

    A similar relatively average pocket/tongue/triangle exists over the SE, nothing like the strip of wet sitting sw-ne. The values for the low countries would be interesting to compare.

    I’m not saying Venus is causing these cycles but rather the Transits fits/proxies with other cycles and seem to be coming into phase again.

    Again from Booty

    “After the wet summer…and a brief ‘average’ respite in September 1882, the rains returned with a vengeance in October (EWP 163 mm/~180% LTA / in the ‘top-10’ of such-named wettest months), and marked the start of a significantly wetter-than-average period lasting until February 1883. The total for autumn (SON) was 370 mm (~140%) & that for winter (DJF) was 332 mm (~130%). Flooding was reported nation-wide, and farmers in particular had a bad time, both in trying to rescue that year’s ripe crops from the wet summer/autumn weather and trying to plant crops ready for 1883.”

    Analogues of past hale cycles (i.e. ’47 ’69 ’91) suggest to me a back loaded winter lasting until equinox. 1883 had a cold March in CET and a cold March is ‘overdue’ not that it means anything but who knows? The MWW and SSW tagged to hit the polar vortex this month hint at the possibility emerging.

    As a final thought 1883 + 1816 had well known volcanic eruptions could we have one this year? The two large Indonesian quakes in 2012 could be a precursor/trigger for an eruption. Activity in that area appears to be more active of late.

    Of note 1817 is also a period when there was melting of the N polar regions as noted by the admiralty.

    Not sure how my thoughts fit with others but to me the above chimes with what Stephen Wilde has said of jetstream shifts and movement of the strato/tropobands in relation to solar/planetary cycles.

    Interesting times :-)kc

  13. Gray says:

    Interesting stuff Wayne, it’s broadly in line with my own thoughts though I’m more particularly interested in the potential cold. Nonetheless, I’m suspecting winter wheat is not enjoying the wet conditions we (the UK) currently have.

    On the volcano front some of the Kamchatkan Peninsular volcanoes are erupting in the Northern Hemisphere at the moment and would certainly add to the effect that the two earlier Icelandic eruptions had.

  14. Gray says:

    Sorry Craig I meant…

  15. Craig M says:

    Lol no problems Gray. As an after thought I did also think of Kamchatkan Peninsula which has shown an uptick as has most of the ring of fire