Fenbeagle’s Christmas message

http://fenbeagleblog.wordpress.com/2012/12/22/we-see-things/

First Measurements in Polar Regions

Atmospheric temperature profile and structure from Antarctica, figure 8 daytime, figure 9 nighttime showing a severe temperature inversion which is misrepresented in radiosonde data, is too coarse. I point out this implies surface cooling failure and is to be expected from a radiative regime which is contrary to the convective, scoured dayside. This also fits with the Leroux MPH which are more prevalent during polar night.

2003 paper

A New Microwave Temperature Profiler – First Measurements in Polar Regions

E. N. Kadygrov, A. V. Koldaev, and A. S. Viazankin
Central Aerological Observatory, Moscow, Russia

A. Argentini, and A. Conidi
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CNR, Italy

“Temperature inversions are a ubiquitous feature of the high latitude atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). In Polar Regions, the temperature inversion is a complicated phenomenon involving interactions between surface radiative cooling, subsidence and warm air advection. …”
PDF here

BBC 28 Gate, Helen Boaden remounts saddle

In the wake of the Pollard report Helen Boaden of fighting a pensioner with 6 heavies in support has been allowed back by the BBC.
Original story at The Register which later turned into 28gate, completely unresolved, festering.

Daily Telgraph
“BBC Pollard Review: BBC accused of multiple failings but executives keep jobs…

But Helen Boaden, the BBC’s head of news, who was criticised for the “casual” way in which she mentioned the Newsnight investigation into Savile to George Entwistle, the then head of BBC Vision, keeps her job and will be back at her desk tomorrow.”

The report

“Jimmy Savile report: Full text

An inquiry by former head of Sky News Nick Pollard into…”

First look at filtered Hovmoller 1850 onwards, what does this mean?

[UPDATE AT END]
I had no intention of doing a post when I remembered late what I had meant to do today but the result is I think important.

This is a hovmuller plot plus two incidentals which come along for the ride, existing code, lots in involved here.

North at top, South at bottom. Month slices side by side vertically.

Pier review, horsing around with sea level

Bishop Hill has picked up a fascinating horsie tail from The Washington Times written by Soon and Morner mentioning how crowds peering dead horse style drove a pier into the silt. The rising snag for the sea-level paternalists came when the horses didn’t sink into the waves, no event, no pier sink. Reckon 150 tons did it.

Bishop Hill

Photography corner: Beautiful Andalucia

After a slightly delayed flight (awaiting our consignment of lemon soaked paper napkins) I met up with Tim Cullen at Malaga airport we spent some hours wandering the old centre enjoying tapas and bebidas. Today we took a drive up to a spot I found some years ago; the upper reservoir of the hydro-electric system in El Chorro. It’s a spectacular spot, where the marriage of nature’s spectacle and human ingenuity form a perfect compliment to each other.

Hadcrut 3, innovative view

Figure 1

Hadcrut 3 was last updated October 2012 so I assume it is still active.

I was looking at something else but updated Hadcrut 3 at the same time then took a quick look. The innovation is the first time I have shown a novel presentation of annual data where opinions are wanted.

As you can see this seems to highlight some curiosities about the Hadcrut data.

IPCC log jam breaks, another AR5 reviewer breaks ranks

From WUWT “… I asked a prominent climate scientist if I should release my review early in view of the release of the entire second draft report.

He suggested that I do so, and links to the official IPCC spreadsheet version and a Word version of my review are now posted near the top of my homepage at www.forrestmims.org.”

WUWT post here

Andrew Orlowski: Frack me! UK shale gas bonanza ‘bigger than North Sea oil’

Here’s an entertaining and informative piece from the Register’s Andrew Orlowski on the new dash for shale gas:

Frack me! UK shale gas bonanza ‘bigger than North Sea oil’
Andrew Orlowski – Dec 14 2012

The government has given the go-ahead for further exploration of the UK’s shale gas reserves. Independent surveys suggest these reserves may yield more energy for the nation than North Sea oil.

The shale gas will be collected using induced hydraulic fracturing, known as “fracking”, which splits rocks thousands of feet below ground using high-pressure liquid.

This is a defeat for environmentalist activists and the powerful renewables lobby – but they have a valuable consolation prize few have noticed. Under the proposed regulatory regime, during the fracking process any tremors that measure 0.5 or higher on the Richter scale may trigger an automatic halt to operations under a “traffic light” scheme outlined by the Lib Dem energy minister Ed Davey.

What does this mean? Well, tremors below magnitude 3.0 are considered to be barely noticeable, and bear in mind that the Richter scale is logarithmic: the energy released by a tremor of magnitude 0.5 is equivalent to the energy released by a large hand grenade.

But since the “epicentre” is thousands of feet below the surface, a 0.5 event escapes the detection of all but the most sensitive seismic monitoring equipment.

Yet one 0.5 event alone will be enough to halt fracking and it can only be restarted by the minister. Which, in practice, means it’s in the hand of the fanatically pro-wind Whitehall bureaucrats at the Department of Energy and Climate Change.

Emissivity puzzle: energy exchange in non-vacuums

I haven’t had time to delve into this, but there seems to be a general interest in emissivity through several lines of investigation on the talkshop recently. Physics makes definitions of things in ideal conditions. Emissivity is defined as the radiation a body will emit at a specific temperature. This quantity is crucial to our understanding of the way Earth balances its energy budget of incoming solar energy with emission from various parts of the system. However, emissivity at different wavelengths forms a curve, it isn’t the same at all wavelengths for a specific material. Moreover, in a non-vacuum, radiation isn’t the only means by which energy can leave a body. Conduction, latent heat of vaporisation (evaporation) and convection also play a role, and dominate over radiation in the Earth’s troposphere.

The most important material to consider so far as Earthj’s energy balance is concerned is seawater, since it covers 70% of the planet.

Contributor ‘Max’ turned up some interesting plots for the emissivity of seawater (and land) the other day, which seem to contradict each other. Here are two of them:

MODIS satellite image showing emissivity of around 0.7 at 0.83um for the ocean

Stephen Wilde: The ignoring of Adiabatic Processes – Big Mistake

My Thanks to Stephen Wilde, who has submitted this article containing a hypothesis on energy flow in Earth’s climate system.

The Ignoring Of Adiabatic Processes – Big Mistake
Stephen Wilde – December 2012

Abstract:
An attempt is made to reconcile the diabatic and adiabatic processes within a planetary atmosphere and in doing so show how changes in the radiative characteristics of constituent molecules in an atmosphere might not have an effect on the equilibrium temperature of the atmosphere and of the surface beneath it.

Applying the proposed scenario would appear to indicate why and how planetary atmospheres adjust themselves to the ideal lapse rate set by gravity despite divergences from that ideal lapse rate within the vertical temperature profile of the atmosphere.
Essentially, the adiabatic and diabatic processes must always match each other on any given planet at equilibrium because they are then of equal size and run at equal speed but are of opposite sign.

The diabatic process results in warming and the adiabatic process rations the supply of PE in the atmosphere flowing back to the surface in the form of KE thereby maintaining the equilibrium temperature set by mass, gravity and insolation.

AR5 draft leaks, cheers, too young, but there is a sunshine backtaste

WUWT has posted with details of a leak by Alec Rawls of the AR5 WG1 draft suggesting some kind of solar effect is acknowledged.

Link to WUWT on AR5 draft entitled “IPCC AR5 draft leaked, contains game-changing admission of enhanced solar forcing”

The IPCC mentioning the possibility of a GCR link to clouds is important here. Prof Nir Shaviv in his JGR paper on Using the Oceans as a Calorimeter found a large amplification by empirical study. Cloud change is likely to be proportional to solar change because otherwise our solar planetary model wouldn’t successfully hindcast a good match to the paleo reconstructions.

The inverse complimentary phenomenon of decreasing cloud cover is increased sunshine hours. Willie Soon and Doug Proctor have been on the case there.

Geminids meteor showers on show tonight – cloud cover permitting.

From the BBC:

The annual Geminids meteor shower will reach its peak late on Thursday night and into early Friday morning.

The meteors will appear to radiate from a point near the star Castor, in the constellation Gemini.

Why Offshore Windfarms are Underperforming

From Reuters By Gerard Wynn:

Garrad Hassan’s report, “Offshore wind: Economies of scale, engineering resource and load factors”, sought to “provide a supported opinion on the likely load factors for offshore wind power in the UK Round 1 and 2 offshore wind farms”.

Government studies have since cited it as a reference.

The report calculated a range of load factors from 33 to 38 percent, for wind speeds ranging from 8.5 to 9.5 metres per second (See Chart 4).

Actual annual average load factors in fact only passed 35 percent for the first time last year, according to the Department of Energy and Climate Change’s (DECC) “Digest of United Kingdom Energy Statistics 2012”.

For previous years they were in the range 26-30 percent, or 28-35 percent depending on whether they are measured including or excluding turbines under construction.

DECC provided figures

Deutsche-Bank Raided: Many Computers Taken: The Carbon Cred Scam Unravels

Well! Soon after HSBC are rapped for their illegal dealings, Deutsche-Bank are in troubl over Carbon Credits. Has their past evangelising on climate change caught up with them? Noble cause corruption on a massive scale is being uncovered it seems. This from Reuters:

Deutsche-Bank Headquarters in Frankfurt

Deutsche Bank co-CEO drawn into C02 tax evasion probe

By Edward Taylor

FRANKFURT | Wed Dec 12, 2012 7:09pm GMT

(Reuters) – Deutsche Bank co-chief executive Juergen Fitschen was drawn into a widening tax evasion probe linked to carbon trading at Germany‘s biggest lender on Wednesday as police and tax inspectors raided its offices.

Prosecutors said they were investigating 25 bank staff on suspicion of severe tax evasion, money laundering and obstruction of justice, and searched the headquarters and private residences in Berlin, Duesseldorf and Frankfurt.

 

“Two of Deutsche Bank’s Management Board members Juergen Fitschen and Stefan Krause are involved in the investigations as they signed the value-added tax statement for 2009,” Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) said in a statement.

Back in 2009, Fitschen was Germany chief and Krause was chief financial officer, a post he retains to this day.

Deutsche Bank said it voluntarily corrected its 2009 tax return, but noted that authorities disagreed over whether this had been done in a timely fashion.

“Unlike the Public Prosecutor’s Office, Deutsche Bank is of the opinion that this correction took place in due time,” it said.

Around 500 police and tax inspectors raided Deutsche Bank, arresting five staff in a probe linked to a tax scam involving the trading of carbon permits.

Ultralight blogging: tallbloke style

Success. I’m heading down to Malaga on a Ryanair flight in a few days to meet Tim Cullen and get out into the limestone serrania around the Sierra de las Nieves for some scrambling and rambling. I  travel hand baggage class these days, so everything has to be light. But typing on phone screens is a pain, so I hacked a sony e-reader to blog on this evening. I just wrote this post with it. 🙂



And after saving the post as a draft online, I can edit it with the WordPress app on the phone and insert a photo or two.

How cool is that?

An excellent article by E.M. Smith, the ‘Chiefio’

.

Musings from the Chiefio

The title is a bit of a play on words. In common U.S. English, there’s a frequent phrase that came, I think, from High School Sports (and eventually made it into movies). In one movie, it involves cats vs. dogs. “Cats Rule, Dogs Drool”.

But I could have causality backwards here. Perhaps the movie came first?

At any rate, this posting has two ‘themes’, if you will. First, the Tropopause dominates what happens (i.e. it “rules” while the rest of the atmosphere is along for the ride). Second, that there are things that drive the tropopause, just like there are “rules of the road”, there are physics rules that tell us how the tropopause will behave. Two sides of one coin. What are the rules that drive the tropopause, and why does that dominate the meaning of the air?

Atmosphere, Stratosphere, Mesosphere, Troposphere

My kingdom for a sphere…

We all…

View original post 4,883 more words

A short lesson in simple logic

In his recent thread  ‘ A simple argument supporting a radiative greenhouse effect’,  Tim Folkerts opened with this statement:

This is about the simplest, most intuitive, most irrefutable argument I can come up with for why gases like CO2 and H20 in the atmosphere (“greenhouse gases”) must warm the surface.

He then goes on to attempt proofs of two propositions.

For a given surface temperature, less radiation leaves a world with cool greenhouse gases than a world with no greenhouse gases.

and

A warmer world with GHGs can radiate away the same energy as a cooler world with no GHGs.

Grandmother Mounts Legal Challenge to Scotland’s ‘Dash for Wind’

An Argyll grandmother is headed to Geneva to obtain a ruling on whether Government and planning authorities are overstepping their powers and failing to perform legally binding duties to citizens in their rush to build windfarms.

In an interview with The Independent, Mrs Metcalfe said: “Our challenge is a democratic one: the UK and EU are by-passing the proper environmental and economic assessments and legally-binding procedures related to democratic accountability. Scotland, she said, is being turned into a ‘hedgehog’ as a result, being covered with more than 3,500 wind turbines without due regard for the growing scientific evidence which shows they have a profoundly damaging effect on the local ecology and on people’s health. “Such devastating changes might be merited if we had the information to enable us to understand the benefits. Many of the supposed claims by government are now proving to be the opposite of what they say.”

“Instead, the onus should be on the developers to prove the positive. No wind farm developer has ever had to explain the benefits of wind. Evidence tells us that wind power performance shows not only no reduction in CO 2 and other harmful emissions, but the very reverse. But Alex Salmond is driving an aggressive green agenda like an express train across Scotland, bludgeoning anyone who gets in the way as being a Luddite and anti-green.

Boris Johnson: ‘We Should Get Fracking Right Away’

UPDATE: 12/12/12 The UK’s Prime Minister David Cameron has put his weight behind the dash for shale gas.
From the Independent:

Britain must be at the heart of a “shale gas revolution”, David Cameron has said, which could bring down energy prices and help “re-industrialise” the economy.

Giving his public backing for plans to exploit the country’s onshore gas reserves – which is expected to be given the go-ahead by the Government very shortly – Mr Cameron said the new technology could transform our energy supplies.

But his stance was attacked by climate change scientists and energy experts who warned his dash-to-gas policy was “misleading and dangerous”.

Giving evidence to MPs Mr Cameron pointed to America where fracking for shale gas had allowed the country to become virtually self-sufficient in gas.

He said he wanted Britain to play a full part in the “revolution underway” and criticised environmentalists who were opposed to exploiting the technology.

“I think some in the green movement really want us to rule out gas and opt right now for nuclear plus renewables plus energy efficiency. Zip. That’s it,” he said.

“I think that would be a mistake. It maybe that this gas revolution is really quite transformative and there is going to be a lot more gas and the price won’t be as expensive as some people think.

“We should take part in fracking because this might be a revolution and if we ignored it completely we could be giving our economy much higher energy prices than would otherwise be necessary.”

 

In his Daily Telegraph Column, London Mayor Boris Johnson speaks out for shale gas, and examines why the Greens, LibDems and bEUrocrats are against its exploitation. He also tells a couple of home truths along the way about nuclear and renewable energy. Go Boris.

Ignore the doom merchants, Britain should get fracking
Boris Johnson in the Daily Telegraph

If it were not so serious there would be something ludicrous about the reaction of the green lobby to the discovery of big shale gas reserves in this country. Here we are in the fifth year of a downturn. We have pensioners battling fuel poverty. We have energy firms jacking up their prices. We have real worries about security of energy supply – a new building like the Shard needs four times as much juice as the entire town of Colchester.

Our nukes are so high-maintenance that the cost of disposing of their spent fuel rods is put at about £100 billion – more than the value of all the electricity they have produced since the Fifties. The hills and dales of Britain are being forested with white satanic mills, and yet the total contribution of wind power is still only about 0.4 per cent of Britain’s needs. Wave power, solar power, biomass – their collective oomph wouldn’t pull the skin off a rice pudding. We are prevented from putting in a new system of coal-fired power stations, since that would breach our commitments under Kyoto. We are therefore increasingly and humiliatingly dependent on Vladimir Putin’s gas or on the atomic power of the French state.