UK Rainfall 2012-The Report The Met Office Should Have Produced

Posted: January 10, 2013 by tchannon in Analysis, climate, weather

Reblog from WUWT
Guest post by Paul Homewood

Image

According to the Met Office, UK has just had the second wettest year on record, just behind 2000. These claims, however, are based on records dating back to 1910. The Met Office also keep a rainfall series for England & Wales, which date back to 1766, and these cast a slightly different light on the matter.

(As Scotland and N Ireland have been drier than normal, the England & Wales portion becomes particularly relevant).

Figures 1 and 2 show the annual rainfall for this series, with 10 and 30 year running averages.

The article at WUWT

This is a fine article by Paul Homewood which deserves wide coverage and perhaps longer discussion on the Talkshop.

The Talkshop seems overloaded with content at the moment but this is a good one on a subject I have been planning to cover in a different way, particularly to do with variabilty.

Rain gauges are dotted around in their thousands, with station churn at a furious rate. I’ll be revealing how I know soon as part of the surface stations project. Oh and the Leroy WMO recommendations cover rain gauges too. These too are supposed to be well exposed, so what for example is the effect of high dense fences?

Possibly more important is consistency, a variability matter again.

Apology to anyone who saw a brief actual reblog, it went bad so I have near enough cloned and reposted. Don’t think I’ll try the reblog facility again.

Tim

Comments
  1. oldbrew says:

    Before 1998 (1267mm.) you have to go back to 1954 (1309mm.) for an annual figure over 1200mm. On the other hand, 1998-2010 has six figures over 1200mm. and two below 1000mm.

    Taken from a 2011 Guardian article with the headline:
    ’100 years of UK rainfall: when was it this dry before?’

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2011/jun/10/data-store-drought

    The article lists all the figures from 1910-2010. Awaiting more analysis from TC’s surface stations project.

  2. Joe's World {Progressive Evolution} says:

    Paul,

    For Climate Science to follow exclusively temperature data was a very bad approach. They ignored many areas including the movement of evaporation and precipitation patterns.
    An orb has very unique properties that cannot use the mathematical averaging our current models use due to the velocity differences, height of land differences, atmospheric thickness differences, etc.
    Water is completely different properties on the planet surface to the difference of the density of the atmosphere.

  3. Ceri Phipps says:

    After seeing the met office claims I had a very quick look at the historical station data on their website for Oxford, for no other reason than it is central and has a long record. 2012 was second wettest at 954.2mm after 1960 with 964.7mm. In third was 1903 with 913.8mm. Only 3 other years had totals of more than 850mm, 1924, 1927 and 1951.

    Looking at the entire record from 1853 shows no trend.

  4. Rick K says:

    You may (or may not – it’s OK) remember a song from the mid-60s called “Ringo.”

    “Ringo” became a hit single performed by the Canadian actor, Lorne Greene, in 1964. The song tells the tale of a lawman and his relationship with a gunfighter he had nursed back to health.
    “Ringo” was written by Don Robertson and Hal Blair.

    As a result of all this… YOU… get a poem. I thank Lorne Greene and Julia Slingo for their inspiration.

    First, to refresh your memory: “Ringo” lyrics as performed by Lorne Greene.

    Followed by my original composition, “Slingo,” performed by no one.

    Ringo (by Don Robertson and Hal Blair)

    He lay face down in the desert sand
    Clutching his six-gun in his hand
    Shot from behind, I thought he was dead
    But under his heart was an ounce of lead
    But a spark still burned so I used my knife
    And late that night I saved the life of Ringo

    I nursed him till the danger passed
    The days went by, he mended fast
    Then from dawn till setting sun
    He practiced with that deadly gun
    And hour on hour I watched in awe
    No human being could match the draw of Ringo

    One day we rode the mountain crest
    And I went east and he went west
    I took to law and wore a star
    While he spread terror near and far
    With lead and blood he gained such fame
    All through the West they feared the name of Ringo

    I knew someday I’d face the test
    Which one of us would be the best
    And sure enough the word came down
    That he was holed up in the town
    I left the posse out in the street
    And I went in alone to meet Ringo

    They said my speed was next to none
    But my lightning draw had just begun
    When I heard a blast that stung my wrist
    The gun went flying from my fist
    And I was looking down the bore
    Of the deadly .44 of Ringo

    They say that was the only time
    That anyone had seen him smile
    He slowly lowered his gun and then
    He said to me “We’re even, friend”
    And so at last I understood
    That there was still a spark of good in Ringo

    I blocked the path of his retreat
    He turned and stepped into the street
    A dozen guns spit fire and lead
    A moment later, he lay dead
    The town began to shout and cheer
    Nowhere was there shed a tear for Ringo

    The story spread throughout the land
    That I had beaten Ringo’s hand
    And it was just the years, they say
    That made me put my guns away
    But on his grave they can’t explain
    The tarnished star above the name of Ringo

    Slingo (by Rick K)
    She said straight-up the sceptered land
    Would soon turn into desert sand
    She heard others say global warming was dead
    But under her skull was a brain of lead
    My brain burned as I grabbed my knife
    And was sorely tempted to free my life from Slingo

    I listened to her till the urge had passed
    But listen hard because she talks fast
    Then from dawn till setting sun
    She spoke of relentless deadly sun
    And hour on hour I watched in awe
    No human alive could build a house of straw like Slingo

    One day we met on a mountain crest
    We both did what we thought best
    I took to science and used my brain
    While she spread terror for selfish gain
    With models and forecasts she gained such fame
    All through the West they fear the name of Slingo

    I knew someday I’d face the test
    Would brains or models be the best
    And sure enough the temps came down
    And water flowed all through the town
    I watched my car float down the street
    And I went in alone to meet Slingo

    They said my brain was next to none
    And my cogent thought had just begun
    When I felt a blast that stung my wrists
    As she beat her chest with both her fists
    Clutching her forecast in her hand
    “Britain will be an isle of sand!” said Slingo

    They say that was the only time
    That anyone had seen her smile
    She slowly lowered her arms and then
    She said to me “This drought won’t end”
    And so at last I understood
    Talking sense would do no good with Slingo

    “Julia!” I said, “Your forecast’s a bust!
    It’s the only thing that’s turned to dust”
    A dozen taxis flowed down the road
    She hopped on one as would a toad
    The Met began to shout and cheer
    They alone offered to buy a beer for Slingo

    Julia’s drought spread throughout the land
    As rain-soaked Britons could barely stand
    And it was just her hubris, they say
    That made me want to run away
    I screamed, “Julia! On you is the onus!”
    But she ignored me and went off to collect the bonus of Slingo

  5. Brian H says:

    Now we need an Aus version, using “Dingo” …