On taking a break from working on unpublished data after discovering two unexpected curiosities it crossed my mind a spot of twiddling with fantasy might go down well.
Brief explanation: what happens to extrapolation when withholding known data, so input is through end 1979, through end 1989 and so on, then see what is forecast to 2030 based on the shape. Four coefficients have been allowed (one more than sensible). For compare there is a signal processed end corrected low pass filtered version of the input monthly Hadcrut4. All done on “automatic”, no prompting by me.
The result is the same as from Hadcrut3 gridded when I compute from that (did this ages ago) without the stats messing. Same flat then second ramp up @2060, suggesting not a lot has changed.
Do I get a 10% cut from the savings? (insert grin)
We seem to have some new faces on the blog, writes the co-moderator and contributor, so I had better not run too fast. I am using an unpublished tool, many thousands of lines of C, where one thing it can do is create a non-discrete Fourier model of a dataset and write out the magic incantation to recreate a discrete time series which is not constrained to the input timeframe. Involves a lot of random numbers and fast code. And other stuff.
I hate misleading anyone so please do not take this work any more seriously than “Hmm, how curious”
A lot of data passes by me but until today I had never looked at Hadcrut4, of no interest because in my view it is so dire underneath is a waste of time. Decision: omit justification and background, too long and involved.
My background is more from signal processing.
As a taster from work in progress
Scale is Kelvin, dates are dates, 4ft ground temperature through air min/max, no time skew. What data is published is wrong, this is largely corrected, reverse engineering incorrect homogenisation arising from a lack of understanding of physics, perfectly understandable back then. (although few today seem to get it)
Roughly speaking it takes 14 days for heat to travel 4 feet (just over 1 metre) in the ground at this site, maybe a couple of days to 1 foot. A solid acts as a thermal delay line, heat flows in and out, so there is time delay. Something mind bending has turned up to do with the relationship with air temperature. Let this sulk at the back of what passes for a brain.
From a sampling point of view you can’t sample temperature using a min/max thermometer, nor is meteorological maths correct. Lots of awkward problems where pragmatics comes into it. On the other hand a deep ground temperature thermometer is integrating, it can produce valid data except the technology and reading method was poor.
This is also the true Earth temperature as a body: in ephemeral air as human seem to think is the temperature is not.
Oh, in case you were wondering, the joke at the start of this article expands to this
This isn’t rational yet perhaps it gives a feel. That is the point of this stuff, trying to get an understanding rather than any final answer.
A brief look a the official Hadrut4 global plot suggests the Met Office have at long last moved slightly on end correction. I might write on this later and note: I have no particular bone with these people when they do the right thing, difficult with all eyes watching. I would far prefer they lost the climate arm, put work into improving operational, which shows signs of lack of care, probably starving. They also have to take on board Hurst when it comes to statistics.
If my English seems strange, is how it comes out unless I spend an inordinate time refining. (ie. saves anyone complaining)
Post by Tim Channon