Unprecedented Third Consecutive La Nina

Posted: January 15, 2013 by tallbloke in atmosphere, Cycles, general circulation, Natural Variation, Ocean dynamics, solar system dynamics

An unmistakable tongue of cooler water forming off equatorial Peru signifies La Nina.

Real Science

Trenberth says that El Nino is caused by global warming, so we can officially say that global warming is dead as a doornail. Just in time for NOAA and NASA to make fools of themselves lying about the global temperature.

ScreenHunter_405 Jan. 14 21.10

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  1. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/wm/wm_forecast_weather_noscript.html
    UK Outlook for Tuesday 29 Jan 2013 to Tuesday 12 Feb 2013:
    Colder than average conditions are favoured across many parts of the UK, especially in the north and east. Whilst there is no strong signal for rainfall patterns through this period, drier than average conditions are more likely in the north, whereas the south may have near or even slightly above average rainfall. The frequency of snow events through this period may be more than experienced so far this winter.
    Updated: 1139 on Mon 14 Jan 2013

    Another “forecast” from our beloved weather forecasters. Notice how they have found out it’s usually colder in the North.

  2. […] Unprecedented Third Consecutive La Nina « Tallbloke’s Talkshop. […]

  3. oldbrew says:

    Monthly ENSO update due tomorrow (16 Jan) on the Australian BoM site, which lists 7 model forecasts including the Met Office.


  4. Paul Vaughan says:

    Note average January SouthEast Trade Winds — from the totally awesome JRA-25 Atlas:

    = how cold water gets stirred up

  5. Joe's World {Progressive Evolution} says:


    Here is a water mystery you probably have never seen.
    Pretty cool actually…

    [Reply] Does shaking the bottle add the energy necessary to cause a change of state? Interesting video, thanks.

  6. Green Sand says:

    “…Third Consecutive….” – Way too early to call.

    NOAA latest, yesterday, predicting ENSO 3.4 SSTs back above average for the second half of the year:-

    OLR is interesting, for the last 10 months it has just bounced around the average, can’t be doing much to recharge the “warm pool” so maybe the “warm pool” just hasn’t got the energy to come out to play?

  7. Max™ says:

    Very pure water can be cooled well below the freezing point without crystal formation being triggered, tapping the bottle breaks the symmetry and everything falls into the “easiest” state to reach.

  8. Roger Andrews says:

    “A liquid below its standard freezing point will crystallize in the presence of a seed crystal or nucleus around which a crystal structure can form creating a solid. However, lacking any such nuclei, the liquid phase can be maintained all the way down to the temperature at which crystal homogeneous nucleation occurs.”


    And the temperature at which nucleation occurs is reportedly -48C:


    The real mystery here is why anyone would be carrying around supercooled bottles of drinking water in the middle of the Canadian winter, particularly when beverages more appropriate to sub-zero temperatures are freely available. 😉

  9. Bob Tisdale says:

    Well, it’s not quite a La Nina yet. There are La Nina conditions now, but how will they last? And how strong will the next downwelling (warm) Kelvin wave be?

    I feel a blog post coming on.

    Paul Vaughan, does JMA have an archive of those wind vector maps? If so, please provide a link. I find that animating things like that can be educational.


  10. Paul Vaughan says:

    Bob Tisdale (January 16, 2013 at 12:42 am) wrote:
    “Paul Vaughan, does JMA have an archive of those wind vector maps? If so, please provide a link. I find that animating things like that can be educational.”

    Everything’s accessible from there.

    I did a bunch of APNGs awhile back. They won’t cycle in some browsers. They stick on the first month. They run fine in Mozilla Firefox. The ones I can quickly find:

    — — —

    Column-integrated Water Vapor Flux with their Convergence:

    Near-Surface (850hPa) Wind:

    Near-Surface (850hPa) Wind & GPH — Polar View:

    Zonal Wind Vertical Profile:

    200hPa Wind:

    200hPa Wind & GPH — Polar View:

    Net Surface Heat Flux:

    Column-Integrated Heating:

    Precipitable Water:

    Net Surface Solar Radiation:

    2m Temperature:

    Zonal Mean Temperature Vertical Profile:

    Kinetic Energy of High Frequency Variation at 500 hPa:

    Isotachs & Pressure at 550K:

    Number of Tropical Cyclone Days:

    Omega @ 700hPa:

    Vertical Velocity:

    Mean Sea Level Pressure:

    10m Wind:

    Net Surface Solar Radiation

    Evaporation Minus Precipitation

    Monthly Maximum of Daily Precipitation

    Snow Depth:


    Low Level Cloud Cover:

    Total Cloud Cover

    Column-integrated Ozone

    Credit: Climatology animations have been assembled using JRA-25 Atlas [ http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/jra/atlas/eng/atlas-tope.htm ] images. JRA-25 long-term reanalysis is a collaboration of Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) & Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI).

    — — —

    I totally agree that they’re educational …and that’s quite an understatement.

  11. Joe's World {Progressive Evolution} says:


    I am forwarding a letter I received on this…

    The biggest factor to have this supercooled water phenomenon occur is the purity of the water. Many bottled waters undergo a reverse-osmosis process to remove any impurities. In order to freeze as temperatures drop below zero, water needs a nucleation point to start the freezing process…in impure water like tap water which as different particles in it (specks of dust etc…)…these particles act as the required nucleation points and so a bottle of tap water would start to freeze as temperatures drop below 0 deg C. However, a bottle of water that has no impurities will not have anything in it that can act as a nucleation point. Pure water can exist in liquid form down to about -40 deg C before it will freeze. Irregularities in the bottle (i.e. scratch on inside of bottle) can also be used as a nucleation point to start the freezing process…if the bottles sides are smooth then that reduces the chance of a nucleation point being found.

    With respect to the banging of the bottle to start the freezing process…one website I found theorizes that hitting the bottle creates microscopic air bubbles in the bottle of water and these bubbles then act as the nucleation points. Here is the website that discusses this phenomenon and the reasons behind it…


    So, in your Kilimanjaro experience, by opening your water bottle you introduced tiny dust or frost particles into the bottle and they then acted as nucleation points to start the freezing process of your previously pure water.

    TB, Seems quite reasonable.

  12. Craig M says:

    Green Sand said on January 15, 2013 at 2:36 pm“…Third Consecutive….” – Way too early to call.

    NOAA latest, yesterday, predicting ENSO 3.4 SSTs back above average for the second half of the year”

    I wouldn’t pay too much attention to those forecasts. They have been predicting positive values returning non stop for months but the waters are doing their own thing. I can’t find the page Ryan Maue had up but it showed the prev forecasts which would show if my recall is faulty! A bell is ringing in my head also that 2012 was predicted to a strong El Nino…a prediction in line with the UK drought *coughs* 😉

  13. oldbrew says:

    Australian BoM summarises 7 ENSO models and concludes with its latest forecast:

    ‘the general consensus among the models is for neutral conditions to continue throughout the remainder of the southern summer and autumn.’

    Its own model says ‘neutral/cool’.


  14. Hansen suggests a five year ENSO cycle now about to turn to positive El Nino state:

    ‘Moreover, our interpretation of the larger role of unforced variability in temperature change of the past decade suggests that global temperature will rise significantly in the next few years as the tropics moves inevitably to the next El Nino phase.’

    I’m glad that Judith Curry thinks differently:

    ‘However Hansen’s simplistic reasoning about what can be expected in the next decade is, well, simplistic. GWPF reports on the latest decadal simulation from the UKMO, which predicts basically no warming for the next 5 years. Should we believe the UKMO model prediction? Well, I have more confidence in the UKMO prediction than in Hansen’s back of the envelope reasoning.

    JC’s ‘forecast’ for the next 5 years: It looks like the AMO may have peaked, and we remain in the cool phase of the PDO with a predominance of La Nina events expected (unlikely to see a return to do El Nino dominance in the next decade). I predict we will see continuation of the ‘standstill’ in global average temperature for the next decade, with solar playing a role in this as well.’

  15. Paul Vaughan says:

    @ Lord Beaverbrook (January 16, 2013 at 10:18 pm)

    Curry’s too sensible to be conned by all the “sun has no effect” BS.

  16. tallbloke says:

    This may only be a conceit, but I would like to think the solar matters I discussed with Judy and Peter at Lisbon in Jan 2011 and at the Royal Soc last year had some effect. 🙂

  17. Paul Vaughan says:

    [snip] Meanwhile even NOAA is sensibly realigning with nature to acknowledge that observation is consistent with universal laws (of conservation of angular momentum & large numbers):

    Semi-Annual Westerlies & Ozone:

    “Issues in Climate Science Underlying Sun/Climate Research
    Isaac M. Held, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
    11-year solar cycle
    Strengthening the horizontal temperature gradient alters in turn the fluxes of angular momentum by midlatitude eddies. The angular momentum budget of the troposphere controls the surface westerlies.

    Pamela Gray will no doubt be throwing a hissy fit in support of the thought-policing not-so-stealth-activist god of stanford-sponsored ignorance & denial of universal laws (…just when they’re too inconvenient, mind you (/sarc) – e.g. in solar-terrestrial-climate relations).


    R. Gates | January 13, 2013 at 3:56 pm | wrote: “Some of you may be interested in the summary report from the recent workshop on the connection between Solar Variability and Climate:


    You can download the report for free if you register with the NAP at the link above. One of the more interesting presentations at the workshop was given by Isaac Held. In his panel discussion remarks he made the following (I think excellent) comments/suggestions: [………]”

    …… http://judithcurry.com/2013/01/12/open-thread-weekend-6/#comment-285489

    Keep going TB…

    [Reply] I hope Paul will forgive the small snip. We can find a way to influence rather than confront the direction things have taken. An old adage of T’ai Chi is to use the opponents energy to be their own undoing by using it to unbalance them, rather than to attempting to neutralise their energy in a head-on confrontation.