Tatiana Barlyaeva: External forcing on air-surface temperature: Geographical distribution of sensitive climate zones

Posted: January 23, 2013 by tallbloke in Analysis, climate, Cycles, Electro-magnetism, solar system dynamics, volcanos

H/T to Michele Casati who flagged up this paper on suggestions. I don’t have time to read it all through but it looks interesting, and hopefully people with knowledge of wavelet analysis might take a look and report their views. Looks to me like Joanna Haigh might start re-educating herself with papers like this.



In this paper we analyze the geographical distribution of the climate response to external forcing (solar, volcanic and geomagnetic) on the periods of 11 and 22 years. As a climate characteristic we use the data of the air-surface temperature (regional data sets). The analysis is performed by the wavelet phase/coherence technique which is applied to the solar (sunspot numbers), volcanic (Dust Veil Index), geomagnetic (C9-index) activities and the temperature data on interannual timescales for the common time interval covering most of the 20th century. Besides, we analyze the statistics of the temperature response to the solar and geomagnetic factors on the periods of 11 and 22 years for different geographical sectors. In particular, we find the existence of a combined forcing of solar and volcanic activity on the Earth temperature on the 11-year period in the second half of the 20th century over the globe, whereas a set of stations (mostly in North Atlantic) shows a coherence between solar activity and the Earth temperature on the 11-year periodicity even in absence of the combined effect; it was found that the maximal number of stations demonstrating statistically significant amplitudes of wavelet spectra corresponds to the wavelet cross coherence between geomagnetic activity and the Earth air-surface temperature on the periods about 22 years during the time interval without intensive volcanic eruptions capable to change significantly the level of DVIGlobal.

Full paper download here

  1. Paul Vaughan says:

    As Jean Dickey (NASA JPL) has cautioned us:
    Temperature, mass, & velocity are coupled.

    Framing temporally-global solar-terrestrial time series analysis around spatially-localized or globally-averaged temperature time series in an ENSO-dominated (i.e. strongly interannually, inter-regionally spatiotemporally-turbulent) context illuminates at most shadows.

    Shadows can be marginally informative, but we can do much better by looking directly at the objects casting the shadows. This requires attention to better-constrained markers (e.g. earth orientation parameters) using methods able to see through ENSO, for example by focusing on multi-extent clustering of annual & semi-annual spikes.

    In a follow-up study, Barlyaeva’s analysis could be refined for attention to gradients using quaternion wavelets. That would demand serious funding (for adequate computing hardware and a team of capable programmers). It might render insights from EOP digestible by a lay audience (possibly including the very large, culturally-dominant pool of climate & solar scientists who aren’t currently sufficiently aware of aggregate constraint fundamentals to engage in sensible discussion).

    Translation into simple terms …

    I wouldn’t recommend that anyone look to Joanna Haigh for solar-terrestrial leadership.
    She shows no discernible quantitative awareness of aggregate constraint fundamentals.