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Important new update on global temperature metrics from Paul Homewood.
By Paul Homewood
While Obama is imploring us to stop the global warming that is bringing us “the devastating impact of raging fires, and crippling drought, and more powerful storms”, it would seem to be a good idea to see exactly what global temperatures have been doing in the last year.
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Got that Joanna?
WASHINGTON, Jan. 23, 2013 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ — A group of 20 ex-NASA scientists have concluded that the science used to support the man-made climate change hypothesis is not settled and no convincing physical evidence exists to support catastrophic climate change forecasts.
Beginning in February 2012, the group of scientists calling themselves The Right Climate Stuff (TRCS) team received presentations by scientists representing all sides of the climate change debate and embarked on an in-depth review of a number of climate studies.
Employing a disciplined approach of problem identification and root cause analysis honed from decades of dealing with life threatening safety issues in successfully sending astronauts up through Earth’s atmosphere and returning them safely home, the TRCS team concluded that no imminent threat exists from man-made CO2.
TRCS team is comprised of renowned space scientists with formal educational and decades career involvement in engineering, physics, chemistry, astrophysics, geophysics, geology and meteorology. Many of these scientists have Ph.Ds. All TRCS team members are unpaid volunteers who began the project after becoming dismayed with NASA’s increasing advocacy for alarmist man-made climate change theories.
H/T to Michele Casati who flagged up this paper on suggestions. I don’t have time to read it all through but it looks interesting, and hopefully people with knowledge of wavelet analysis might take a look and report their views. Looks to me like Joanna Haigh might start re-educating herself with papers like this.
H/T Paul Matthews for spotting this on the telegraph website. It seems that this is what to expect from mainstream scientists these days. Sad really:
SIR – As a professor of atmospheric physics, at Imperial College London, I’m delighted that Boris Johnson maintains his interest in weather and climate (“It’s snowing, and it really feels like the start of a mini ice age”, Comment, January 21), but he should be wary of drawing generalised conclusions from his observations. He suggests that the cold weather is due to declining solar activity – but the sun is more active now than it has been since 2009, and about the same as it was in 2004 and 1998. What we have is the lovely variability of British weather sitting on top of a long-term global average warming due to greenhouse gas increases. This is not an issue of opinion, but one of basic physics.
We don’t need to invoke mysterious solar particles to understand long-term trends.
Professor Joanna Haigh
London SW7
So let’s have a look at the cherry picked dates Joanna uses:
I was surprised and delighted to see Guardian Eco-Journo Leo Hickman propose this on Twitter this morning. However, by the time I’d typed two words of congratulation, he’d already had second thoughts. Who else here would like to see a referendum on whether to take climate science seriously or not? Join our poll below the break.
The first part of this post found a statistical relation between the planetary period of rotation [in days] and the diameter [in kilometres] for the Gas Giants of the Solar System.
However, describing this statistical relationship in more detail is problematical because of our limited understanding of the Gas Giants.
There are various observations, theories, models and calculations in the published literature regarding the Gas Giants. Unfortunately [for me], I find it impossible to separate fact from fiction [speculation] in the literature. This is especially true when the author liberally quotes from other sources that may [or may not] be equally speculative.
Wikipedia [for example] generally provides plenty of introductory bluster that can easily be mistaken for “fact” while their more detailed “small print” is littered with speculation, uncertainty and doubt.
Tim Cullen continues his investigation of the secret life of the solar system, and makes a very interesting discovery. To find his previous articles, use this search.
Planetary Rotation – Atmospheric Corotation
Tim Cullen – MalagaBay – January 2013
Atmospheric Corotation is one of those “dark corners” of science where mainstream scientists “fear to tread”. Physics and the Earth sciences seem to [currently] avoid the subject “like the plague”.
Generally, atmospheric corotation is relegated to the fringes of Astronomy and Astrophysics:
Corotation – Joint rotation of the atmosphere and a planet.
http://www.spaceweather.eu/en/glossary
Atmospheric corotation is a very real, everyday phenomenon.
Atmospheric corotation is probably the most [unknowingly] talked about subject on Earth because local variations in atmospheric corotation drive weather systems around the globe.
The spheroid Earth rotates around its axis every day and this causes the surface of the Earth to rotate at a speed of 1,674.4 kilometres per hour at the equator.
However, we do not experience wind speeds of 1,674.4 kilometres per hour at the equator because the atmosphere of the Earth [basically] corotates with the planet.
Last year, Swiss investment house UBS released a damning report about the $287 Billion wasted propping up the ETS, the European Carbon Cred Scheme. They pointed out at that time that if the money had been used to renovate Europe’s power generation fleet, CO2 emissions would have been cut by 42%. Now they have more bad news for already overburdened taxpayers across the E.U.
From Bloomburg.com
Carbon-dioxide permits in the European Union emissions trading system, the world’s largest, are “worthless” without a change in the rules to tighten supply and curb a record glut, according to UBS AG.
EU allowances for delivery in December sank to a record 4.79 euros ($6.37) a metric ton on the ICE Futures Europe exchange today. The contract was at 4.86 euros as of 9:51 a.m. in London, extending its losses to 27 percent this year after low bids from utilities, factories and banks forced Germany on Jan. 18 to cancel a sale of permits for the first time.
“With current rules ETS won’t work until 2045, thus carbon is worthless,” Per Lekander, a Paris-based analyst at UBS, said in a research note today.
There aren’t many jobs on offer at the MET Office these days, maybe belt tightening is the order of the day as they ready for privatisation. But it seems that having shot their mouths off about the Sudden Stratospheric Warming that we already knew was linked to the current cold snap, they’ve realised they need someone who knows something about the subject before they get made to look silly. Again. Finding a bright young astrophysics/Earth sciences graduate with Fortran skills might be a bit of a challenge though:
Space Weather Research Scientist
Salary: Starting £25,500 and for exceptional candidates up to £29,100 + competitive benefits, including Civil Service Pension
Generic role: Scientist
Profession: Science and Engineering
12 month fixed-term, Full time at Met Office, Exeter
Closing date for applications: 8 February 2013
Background information
Space Weather is a developing area of work at the Met Office. The all Hazards guidance now provided by Met Office forecasters includes alerts of space weather events. We have also signed a Memorandum of Agreement with the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center which covers exchange of data, development of space weather services, forecaster training and collaboration on space weather research. One initial focus of Met Office space weather research is the development of a thermosphere / ionosphere data assimilation system.
The energetic Richard Tol has completed the first draft of his new book, and made it available online for open review. Excellent work, and excellent idea. To gauge Richards attitude to the climate debate, this quote should suffice:
Climate research is rather controversial. Good introductions to the controversy are Mike Hulme’s book Why we disagree about climate change: Understanding controversy, inaction, and opportunity, Donna Laframboise’ book The delinquent teenager who was mistaken for the world’s top climate expert and Andrew W. Montford’s book The hockey stick illusion: Climategate and the corruption of science.
Major German Daily Front Page Headline: “Global Warming Keeps Us Waiting!…CO2 Over-Estimated?”
By P Gosselin on 21. Januar 2013
For a while it appeared the German mainstream media were going to ignore the reality that the globe hasn’t warmed since the issue has been around (15 years).
But last Friday, Spiegel here was the first major German media outlet to break the ice and asked where the warming’s gone?” Read about it here.
Saturdays’s major daily of Hanover, Germany carries the front-page headline: Global Warming Is Keeping Us Waiting!
Saturday, yet another major media outlet, the Hannoversche Allgemeiene Zeitung (HAZ…Hanover’s major daily) had a front page headline! on its print edition (marked yellow above) titled: Global Warming Keeps Us Waiting!
Hat-tip: Klaus Oellerer
Germans more than ever, now having endured 4 brutal winters in 5 years and now fighting through another wave of brutal cold and heavy snowfall, are asking: Where’s the bloody warming!
Is carbon dioxide being over-estimated? British scientists announce: the temperature increase stopped already 15 years ago.”
In the piece, Margrit Kautenburger asks, “What is it going to be? Is it going to be warmer, or not? The contradictory reports of global warming are falling all over each other.”
Over the years Germany has been bombarded by the media with dire warnings, spurred on by the catastrophe-obesessed Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), that the warming was galloping ahead like never before. Now, suddenly, observations and measurement data show there’s been no warming at all – even though CO2 emissions have steadily risen. The public is wondering what’s going on.
Excerpt from an article by London Mayor Boris Johnson on the Telegraph website:
It’s snowing, and it really feels like the start of a mini ice age
Something is up with our winter weather. Could it be the Sun is having a slow patch?
Boris Johnson 20-1-2013
I remember snow that used to come and settle for just long enough for a single decent snowball fight before turning to slush; I don’t remember winters like this. Two days ago I was cycling through Trafalgar Square and saw icicles on the traffic lights; and though I am sure plenty of readers will say I am just unobservant, I don’t think I have seen that before. I am all for theories about climate change, and would not for a moment dispute the wisdom or good intentions of the vast majority of scientists.
But I am also an empiricist; and I observe that something appears to be up with our winter weather, and to call it “warming” is obviously to strain the language. I see from the BBC website that there are scientists who say that “global warming” is indeed the cause of the cold and snowy winters we seem to be having. A team of Americans and Chinese experts have postulated that the melting of the Arctic ice means that the whole North Atlantic is being chilled as the floes start to break off — like a Martini refrigerated by ice cubes.
Harold Ambler nails it again.
Sunday, January 20, 11:43 a.m. EST, update: Andy Revkin kindly took the time to make sure the right set of eyes fell on a third letter I wrote, and the Times has fixed the piece and issued a formal correction. To Andy I offer my sincere thanks. With my book focusing in part on a century-long habit of promulgating climate fear at the Times it is gratifying to have the paper catch an accurate glimpse of its own reflection in the blogosphere mirror, if even for a moment. By the way, a screencap of the original article with the mistake is below (beneath that the original blog post can be found).
When I found a rather major error in a New York Timesarticle about climate change, I took the trouble to write the editors. I did so via two channels. One of the two ways was sending a letter to the…
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From a Forbes.com article
by Bill Frezza:
Fraud, plagiarism, cherry-picked results, poor or non-existent controls, confirmation bias, opaque, missing, or unavailable data, and stonewalling when questioned have gone from being rare to being everyday occurrences. Just look at the soaring retraction level across multiple scientific publications and the increasingly vocal hand wringing of science vigilantes. Hardly a prestigious university or large pharmaceutical company is immune, with the likes of Harvard, Cal Tech, Johns Hopkins, Ohio State, University of Kentucky, and the University of Maryland recently fingered byRetraction Watch.
And if you think science fraud only impacts the scientific literature, consider the horrendous case of Dr. Scott Reuben, formerly chief of the acute pain service at Baystate Medical Center in Massachusetts. He was sentenced to prison for falsifying research data purportedly demonstrating the efficacy of analgesic medications sold by Pfizer, Merck, and Wyeth that were published in dozens of journals before his fabrications were uncovered. And while Reuben is through as a scientist the problem lingers on, as his research papers were among the most heavily cited in the field.
Influential German daily newspaper der Spiegel has finally confronted the truth; Scientists are all at sea concerning the halt in global warming since 1997. This report by Pierre Gosselin from his excellent website notrickszone
Spiegel Ends Europe’s Climate Denialism…European Media Now Scrambling To Explain End Of Warming!
by Pierre Gosselin 19-1-2013
visit http://cartoonsbyjosh.com – and buy a mug or something.
Spiegel has finally gotten around to conceding that global warming has ended, at least for the time being.
Yesterday Spiegel science journalist Axel Bojanowski published a piece called: Klimawandel: Forscher rätseln über Stillstand bei Erderwärmung (Climate change: scientists baffled by the stop in global warming).
We’ve been waiting for this admission a long time, and watching the media reaction is interesting to say the least. Bojanowski writes that “The word has been out for quite some time now that the climate is developing differently than predicted earlier“. He poses the question: “How many more years of stagnation are needed before scientists rethink their predictions of future warming?”
Bojanowski adds:
15 years without warming are now behind us. The stagnation of global near-surface average temperatures shows that the uncertainties in the climate prognoses are surprisingly large. The public is now waiting with suspense to see if the next UN IPCC report, due in September, is going to discuss the warming stop.”
The Rt. Hon. David Cameron MP
Prime Minister
10 Downing Street
London SW1A 2AA
18th January 2013
AN OPEN LETTER TO THE PRIME MINISTER ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY POLICIES
Dear Prime Minister,
Like you I read PPE at Oxford and I was lucky enough to be taught Economics by Professor Wilfred Beckerman. He has an interest in the economics of environmentalism, having worked in that field with the World Bank in the 1960s, advised the Labour Party on it and he was a member of the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution from 1970 to 1973. He wrote an excellent book in 1974 called “In Defence of Economic Growth” which was a rebuttal of the famous Club of Rome 1972 book “The Limits to Growth”.
In 2002, Prof. Beckerman published a book called “A Poverty of Reason: Economic Growth and Sustainable Development”. If you or your advisers on environmental policies haven’t read it before, I thoroughly recommend it as a succinct and massively sensible analysis of many environmentalists’ arguments by a brilliant economist and excellent teacher. He is still going strong at 87; he’s still teaching at UCL, mainly on ethical issues in Economics which he touches on in this book when addressing the mistakes made by many environmentalists about intergenerational ethics, rights and basic economics when considering issues like resource depletion, climate change and the precautionary principle.
Introduction
We intend to hold a conference in September 2013 to discuss the new knowledge in the literature in relation to the theory of climate we have been developing here at the Talkshop. Because this is a first event, places will be limited, along with the budget. I suggest you register your interest early to secure a place as a speaker or attendee. Speakers, sponsors and poster presenters will get priority for accommodation at the venue itself, but there are many places offering lodgings nearby at prices to suit every budget. This will be a professionally presented event, planned and run by experienced conference organisers at a fit for purpose venue in the vicinity of The university of Leeds and the city centre.
Background
The radiatively based theory of climate is so deficient that its models are now falsified. The Talkshop has hosted discussion of many papers and articles over the last two years which demonstrate the radiative theory’s inadequacy, and many of these also offer an alternative description of the underlying dynamics of the atmospheric and oceanic processes involved in determining the way energy flows into, is absorbed by, redistributed, and finally re-emitted from the Earth’s envelope. We are now at a stage where we are ready to develop an alternative body of theory which can be quantified and assessed.
THE COLD WAR YEARS – 1940, 1941 AND 1942
With all the recent interest in cold and snow I thought it might be interesting to revisit the three coldest years that North-Central and Eastern Europe experienced in the 20th century, which occurred one after the other in 1940, 1941 and 1942. The graph below shows the 20th century temperature records for three widely-separated cities in the affected region – Helsinki, Kiev and Vienna. The three successive cold years show up as an anomalous feature on all of them:
Piers Corbyn over at weather action is very pleased with the success of his forecast made back in December for snow to arrive as a result of a sudden stratospheric warming around mid January. Well done Piers. The rest of the forecasting community was late to this.
Piers says:
Tallbloke's Talkshop 