Sunspot cycle 24 progression as told by SORCE TSI

Posted: February 5, 2013 by tchannon in Solar physics

Image

The SORCE satellite is still working, long past design life and in death throws of reduced functionality, particularly after battery cell failure.

J Martin asked about this dataset in the Comments thread here so I did an update.

We know the solar polar field has or is in the process of magnetic flip which occurs somewhere during sunspot cycle maximum, sunspot count is in an ambiguous state on whether maximum is past, a late large maximum has happened in history. The plot above is also ambiguous.

I’ve been doing various things to do with solar data without writing anything. There is nothing ready to show.

Could add other solar related data here but a quickie post will do.

SORCE data web page

Post by Tim Channon

Comments
  1. tchannon says:

    Now done some modelling runs, various ploys. A two factor model works well enough to validate the 3 year filter somewhat closely,error ripple just on +- 0.01 watts/sqm excluding close to filter ends (as expected), less than 0.05, 0.025 at ends. Surprised me given this is on 1360 watts and simply a subtraction. Model has zero end effect, hence will show the filter end failure, not that any of this is absolute truth.

    This adds nothing useful. The model is obviously not predictive, although the two periods are curious 9.88y and 5.78y. Data is ambiguous, same result can be produced in a variety of ways, although working inside those tiny difference can be done.

    I might try a different ploy, see how much information can be gleaned from the popcorn. Ought to produce the same answer but you never know. This is tricky to do.

  2. Brian H says:

    Tim;
    Death hath no throws. It can’t pitch fer sh**. But humans sometimes suffer throes. (Pangs, spasms, struggles.)

  3. michael hart says:

    Journey of the SORCErer?

    Well, someone had to say it. :)