My thanks to Astrophysicist Ian Wilson for flagging up this new paper from Zhang, Mursula and Usoskin. This sheds some light on the periodic changes in the rate of rotation of the latitudinal bands on the solar surface, and the correlated changes in the number, size and hemispheric location of sunspots. It turns out there is an anticorrelation between the two solar hemispheres. In other words, when rotation rates are high in the north, along with sunspot roduction, they are lower in the south, and vise versa. There are nuances that modify this relationship, and this leaves scope for further study. The periodicity is given as 80-90 years, and this frequency is potentially linked to planetary periods such as the Double inner solar system cycle, the half Jose cycle and Uranus’ orbital period, which falls in the middle of the range.
Archive for March, 2013
Over the last week, more articles critical of mainstream climate science alarmism, and the taxation and energy policies which have been predicated on it have been published than have appeared in years. Undoubtedly this is partly because of the late snows and freezing temperatures endured by an increasingly climate-propaganda weary public. A couple of newspapers which have always been in the vanguard of alarmist doomsaying, such as the Guardian have attempted to reverse the spin, but it is looking increasingly as if the majority of the UK press has had enough, and is coming over the wall to the sceptics position.
However, this may have as much to do with the late UK snow and revenge for the fallout from the Leveson enquiry as any genuine realisation of the shortcomings of the IPCC and the half-baked-one-side-only science it relies on. The impetus in the German media from their even colder spring may keep the ball rolling. Time will tell.
Peter Ainsworth is no longer an MP, he’s a founder member of the ‘Robertsridge Group‘, an environmental and sustainability consultancy. He is chair of wild flora charity Plantlife. He’s also a board member of the environment agency, a government funded quango, which says of itself:
We are an Executive Non-departmental Public Body responsible to the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs and a Welsh Government Sponsored Body responsible to the Minister for Environment and Sustainable Development.
Our principal aims are to protect and improve the environment, and to promote sustainable development. We play a central role in delivering the environmental priorities of central government and the Welsh Government through our functions and roles.
So his private consultancy is in a good position to benefit from his publicly paid for role with the EA.
What was he saying about climate change as shadow environment minister back in 2006? Read on…
Another in our “what the MP’s were saying in 2006” series. This time it’s Norman Baker MP. These days he’s the Parliamentary Under Secretary for Transport.
Norman Baker Lewes, Lib Dem;
Chair, All-Party Environment Group
1: Climate change is a threat greater than any other faced by mankind and is therefore the most important political issue of our time. This means that we need to take urgent action on both the domestic and international stages. Climate change is a reality today, and is already having a huge impact on natural systems across the world, with ice-caps in retreat, coral reef bleaching, the extinction of numerous species, and increased frequency of extreme weather events. In the future, if insufficient action is taken, we face the prospect of catastrophic flooding in some countries alongside ruinous drought and famine in others. This will mean not only terrible human suffering, but economic disaster as well. I very much welcome the recent Stern Review, which may at last make those who somehow believe that the economy and environment are separate matters realize that, rather they are inextricably linked. If we want to stop the worst impacts of climate change, I believe it is vitally important that the average global temperature increases stay below 2°C from pre-industrial levels. Unfortunately, however, we are already much of the way there. Avoiding rises in temperature beyond 2ºC will therefore require dramatic and urgent reductions in emissions of greenhouses gases by all industrialised countries.
This one made me laugh. He’s probably right so far as it goes, if it were to be one of the failed main parties sorting out the mess. However, Mr Schulz little world, constrained and demarcated by red tape and rules as it is, could be in for a seismic shift if the political tide turns in the UK and ordinary folk get a say in the matter, like they’ve been promised on more than one occasion. Ordinary folk in the UK are a little freer than mainstream politicos with the old anglo-Saxon and might take exception to what Mr Schulz is telling them…
Any attempt by the UK government to repatriate powers to Westminster is likely to be a drawn out and cumbersome negotiation.
A pleasant stroll in kinder weather. Happy Easter everybody.
Sheffield, Hallam, Liberal Democrat
1: I passionately believe that climate change is one of the greatest problems we face today. It is essential that politicians take rapid action to address this issue at local, national and international levels. As a Westminster MP I, along with my Liberal Democrat colleagues, support a Climate Change Bill which would set binding, independently monitored, annual targets for reducing emissions, but I also recognise the need for additional policy measures to make this happen. As a first step the Lib Dems are currently promoting a ‘Green Tax Switch’, which would introduce and increase green taxes on high emission vehicles and aircraft, whilst reducing income taxes elsewhere.
2: Britain should and can lead the way with regards to tackling climate change, using its unique influence in the many international organisations to which it is a member. However, to have any credibility in this respect we must first put our own house in order, cutting UK emissions which currently represent 2% of the global total. As with Kyoto the EU will have a major role to play and Britain should work constructively to support this.
3: I am installing energy saving light bulbs throughout my home and I try to use public transport as far as possible. I recycle recyclable waste at home, try to cut down on the unnecessary use of paper in the office, and unplug all unused electrical appliances. Energy consumption will certainly be a far greater consideration next time I look to purchase a new car or household appliances such as a fridge or kettle. I am also looking into switching to more environmentally responsible gas and electricity suppliers.
Our favourite TV forecaster strikes again
By Paul Homewood
Paul Hudson works as a meteorologist with the BBC. He has earned the wrath of the Team previously, as the Climategate leaks revealed, when he dared to question some of their religious tenets.
In the latest post on his BBC blog, he has discussed the extreme cold weather we are currently getting. He finishes by commenting:-
With December 2010 ending up the coldest since 1890, it’s yet more anecdotal evidence that something significant seems to be happening to our climate, driven by a jet stream that continues to be forced regularly further south than normal, across all seasons.
As ever the reasons for this are not clear.
But those who study how solar activity affects the positioning of the jet stream will, perhaps, feel increasingly vindicated.
I wonder how long it will be before the Team send in Richard Black again?
Over on Talkshop Suggestions Gray quotes nicely so here it is
By Roger Harrabin
Last spring’s forecast has been obtained by BBC News under Freedom of Information.
The Met Office three-monthly outlook at the end of March stated: “The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favours drier than average conditions for April-May-June, and slightly favours April being the driest of the three months.”
A soul-searching Met Office analysis later confessed: “Given that April was the wettest since detailed records began in 1910 and the April-May-June quarter was also the wettest, this advice was not helpful.”
In a note to the government chief scientist, the Met Office chief scientist Prof Julia Slingo explains the difficulty of constructing long-distance forecasts, given the UK’s position at the far edge of dominant world weather systems.
She says last year’s calculations were not actually wrong because they were probabilistic.
The Met Office explained it this way: “The probabilistic forecast can be considered as somewhat like a form guide for a horse race.”
Something does not compute, the BBC using FOI with the end effect of mocking the Met Office?
This is a repost from the Powerline Blog of an article summarising the implications of the piece published by ‘The Economist’ a couple of days ago, which recognises the serious problems the co2 driven climate theory faces:
Steven Hayward: Climate Change Endgame In Sight?
Eventually the climate modeling community is going to have to reconsider the central question: Have the models the IPCC uses for its predictions of catastrophic warming overestimated the climate’s sensitivity to greenhouse gases?
The article then went on to survey emerging research (U.S. government funded!) casting doubt on high estimates of climate sensitivity, along with alternative explanations on some climate factors, such as “black carbon.” The question in my mind the time was how long this would take to begin to break out into the “mainstream” scientific and media world.
There is a lesson to learned from events last month in Europe’s poorest country, Bulgaria, well actually there are 2 lessons to be learned, both unfortunately need to be learned by politicians in the rest of Europe, or the world when it comes to it.
The first lesson is that people will not put up with ever increasing electricity bills in the name of saving the planet while a few fat cats and crony capitalists cream off huge profits from Green subsidies on ordinary people’s and businesses energy bills, the second lesson is that Green intermittent renewable energy wreaks havoc on electrical grids, ultimately leading to brown outs and black outs as the grid cannot cope with the sudden Green energy spikes.
History shows that even a short period of rolling black outs will bring down a Government, even in a country like Britain, when in 1974 then Prime Minister…
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This article by Frazer Nelson, editor of the ‘The Spectator’ eloquently expresses the issue which I find it hard to write about without lapsing into anglo-saxon. Please take the time to read it in full over at the Telegraph. This is a campaigning issue for me personally, and one which goes to the heart of the difference between ordinary people and those pushing the catastrophic man made global warming agenda.
It’s the cold, not global warming, that we should be worried about
No one seems upset that in modern Britain, old people are freezing to death as hidden taxes make fuel more expensive
Frazer Nelson 29 March 2013
A few months ago, a group of students in Oslo produced a brilliant spoof video that lampooned the charity pop song genre. It showed a group of young Africans coming together to raise money for those of us freezing in the north. “A lot of people aren’t aware of what’s going on there right now,” says the African equivalent of Bob Geldof. “People don’t ignore starving people, so why should we ignore cold people? Frostbite kills too. Africa: we need to make a difference.” The song – Africa for Norway – has been watched online two million times, making it one of Europe’s most popular political videos.
The aim was to send up the patronising, cliched way in which the West views Africa. Norway can afford to make the joke because there, people don’t tend to die of the cold. In Britain, we still do. Each year, an official estimate is made of the “excess winter mortality” – that is, the number of people dying of cold-related illnesses. Last winter was relatively mild, and still 24,000 perished. The indications are that this winter, which has dragged on so long and with such brutality, will claim 30,000 lives, making it one of the biggest killers in the country. And still, no one seems upset.
Edward Davey Kingston & Surbiton, Liberal Demorat.
1: Climate change is the most important issues facing us today and has been for some time. The consequences if we do not tackle this urgently and fully are potentially catastrophic for the whole human race and life on the earth. The problem to date has been persuading enough people to recognise the threat, and despite Al Gore et al., I remain alarmed at how few people still really understand the scale of the problem and how fast we need to move.
“The warming is driven by a strengthening of local westerly winds, causing warmer air from the sea to be pushed up and over the peninsula. In contrast to much of the rest of Antarctica, summer temperatures are high enough for snow to melt.”
Warmer temps linked with ice shelf break-ups
By Summit Voice
SUMMIT COUNTY — The melt season on the Antarctic Peninsula is growing longer — in some cases it has doubled, and several major ice shelf breakup events in the region coincided with longer than usual melt seasons, according to a a new study that analyzed data from 30 weather stations.
“We found a significant increase in the length of the melting season at most of the stations with the longest temperature records,” said Dr. Nick Barrand, who carried out the research while working for the British Antarctic Survey. “At one station the average length of the melt season almost doubled between 1948 and 2011,” said Barrand, who now works for the University of Birmingham.
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People who believe there’s an urgent problem behave accordingly. Climatologist Michael Mann plays games.
“Watch what people do, don’t listen to what they say, just watch what they do.”
So quoth environmental activist David Suzuki in a 1990 interview. It’s sensible advice. After all, anyone can say anything – but much of what gets uttered every single day is, in fact, untrue.
Con artists paint rosy pictures in a deliberate attempt to deceive. Those suffering from noble cause corruption believe that their own lies don’t count. People who have access to only part of the information (which is most of us, most of the time) can reach faulty conclusions.
As the late physicist Richard Feynman observed in a speech about scientific integrity, “The first principle is that you must not fool yourself – and you are the easiest person to fool.” We all have blind spots. Which…
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Comedy’s hot new duo: Manne and Karoly
by Tony Thomas March 28, 2013
He was addressing an audience of about 300 in a presentation at the university with Dr David Karoly, a denier that global warming has halted for the past 17 years.[i]
Why is Manne seeking to swell the membership of the AYCC and Greenpeace? Because, he said, those groups are leading the struggle against coal mining in Australia, and crusading against the “grotesque coal mining expansion” presently taking place.
It may have escaped Manne’s attention that our coal exports are worth $45b a year and maybe another $10b in home consumption.
“A decision to prevent further expansion of the coal industry and to wind back present coal mines would have enormous global significance, practically and symbolically,” he told his audience.
“Many of you understand the nature of the (warming) crisis facing humankind. I urge you to give support to these two organisations leading the fight for what can be described without hyperbole as the future of human civilization.”
Today I am tackling a very difficult subject which is widely misunderstood, the correct treatment of digital data.
Lets go back to childhood. Scribbling lines with a pencil on paper. Today as grown up we represent the squiggle by a series of X and Y numbers in a computer. There is no other way to do a digital representation of a continuous or analogue line. Confusingly in English, one is the analogue of the other.
Even here I am not being strictly correct, omitting the reconstruction filter.
From the UK Labour party website:
Ministers have been accused of cooking the books on household energy bills, after figures obtained by Labour revealed that the Government’s claim that energy bills will be £166 lower in 2020 is only true if people splash out thousands of pounds on a new appliances such as TVs, fridge-freezers, washing machines, dishwashers and gas-combi boilers.
Caroline Flint MP, Labour’s Shadow Energy and Climate Change Secretary, said:
“The Government’s underhand attempt to mask the real impact of its policies on families’ energy bills is shameful. At a time when hard-pressed families and pensioners are seeing their incomes squeezed, only this out-of-touch Government could expect people to fork out thousands of pounds on new TVs, fridge freezers and washing machines. Instead of cooking the books to trick people into thinking their energy bills will be lower, Ministers should get behind Labour’s plans to overhaul the energy market and deliver fair prices for the public.
So what are labour’s plans that can deliver “fair prices to the public”?
I went to their website to find out, and looked for a link to their policies.
This article on Spiegel Online is surprising for a German publisher.
Seems to be claiming German is in fiscal trouble and is dumping some holy cows.
“Berlin can’t afford many of its renewable energy programs.”
Then goes on “As prices for carbon emissions continue to languish, Berlin is planning to cancel some key subsidy programs aimed at increasing reliance on renewable energies. Germany and other European countries seem uninterested in fixing the problem.” (my bold)
h/t to Little Churchill at Roger Helmer’s blog