Gabfest: Putting down the heretics Soon, Balliunas, Shaviv, Veizer

Posted: March 14, 2013 by tallbloke in Clouds, cosmic rays, flames, FOI, Geology, Geomagnetism, Incompetence, Natural Variation, Politics, solar system dynamics

all.7z 1061565012

cc: ‘The Team’
date: Tue, 12 Aug 2003 11:21:57 -0400
from: Gabi Hegerl
subject: Re: POLL ON SOON-BALIUNAS
to: “Michael E. Mann” <mann@virginia.edu>, Tom Crowley

I have seen Balliunas give a talk quite a long while ago, unfortunately, I

cannot recall what the meeting was, it was some kind of global change meeting,

more than 5 years ago.

I do recall that I was thoroughly unimpressed though. There was not much real

exchange between her and the audience. I remember that Jerry North was there

also, because we exchanged amazement in differences in style of approach between the
detection side of work he and I presented, and her – well lets say

more-qualitative style…

Gabi

At 11:07 AM -0400 8/12/03, Michael E. Mann wrote:

Thanks Tom,
The impact ratings you provided seem to be on a different scale from the ones I’ve seen,
but the relative magnitudes and ordering appear about right (in the ratings I’ve seen,
CR comes in at 0.4!).


I have never seen either Soon or Baliunas give a talk or defend their work at a meeting.
The only submit posters, and have someone else post it for them. They’re never in
attendance at their posters, from my experience. Then they cite their posters as if it
was a peer-reviewed journal article. All very slick.
Look forward to hearing how this goes.
By the way, if you all haven’t already seen this, just out today:
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2003-08/huoj-gwn081203.php
Public release date: 12-Aug-2003
[ Print This Article | Close This Window ]
Contact: Jerry Barach
972-2-588-2904
Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Global warming not man-made phenomenon
Hebrew University, Canadian scientists cite data from study
Global warming will not be helped much by efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emission into
the atmosphere, say two scientists who have studied the matter.
Dr. Nir Shaviv, an astrophysicist from the Racah Institute of Physics of the Hebrew
University of Jerusalem, and Prof. Jan Veiser a geochemist at the University of Ottawa
in Canada and Ruhr University in Germany, say that temperature variations are due more
to cosmic forces than to the actions of man.
In a recent article published in GSA Today (the journal of the Geographic Society of
America) and described in Nature, Shaviv and Veiser tell of their studies illustrating a
correlation between past cosmic ray flux the high-energy particles reaching us from
stellar explosions — and long-term climate variability, as recorded by oxygen isotopes
trapped in rocks formed by ancient marine fossils. The level of cosmic ray activity
reaching the earth and its atmosphere is reconstructed using another isotopic record in
meteorites.

The study showed that peak periods of cosmic rays reaching the earth over the past 550
million years coincided with lower global temperatures, apparently due to the way that
the cosmic rays promote low-level cloud formation (hence blocking out sun warming). No
correlation was obtained, however, with the changing amount of atmospheric carbon
dioxide.
The conclusion of the two scientists is, therefore, that celestial processes seem to be
the dominant influence on climate change, and that increased carbon dioxide release,
while certainly not beneficial, is only secondary to those forces which are beyond our
control.
In practical terms, says Dr. Shaviv, “The operative significance of our research is that
a significant reduction of the release of greenhouse gases will not significantly lower
the global temperature, since only about a third of the warming over the past century
should be attributed to man.” Thus, say the scientists, the Kyoto accord of 1997 —
which was aimed at tackling the global warming phenomenon through limitations on carbon
dioxide — is not the panacea some thought it would be.

Taking the long-range view, Dr. Shaviv and Prof. Veiser believe that fluctuations in
cosmic ray emissions account for about 75 percent of climate variation throughout the
millennia. They acknowledge that this position pits them against prevailing scientific
opinion, which still places a heavy emphasis on the negative role of greenhouse gases.
At 10:55 AM 8/12/2003 -0400, you wrote:

Hi there,
we need some data on Soon and Baliunas. one of my concerns is that they only publish in
low impact journals and completely bypass the normal give and take of presentations at
open scientific meetings (for example, I think I have probably heard 100 presentations
overall from the people on this mailing list).
it is therefore very important to inquire for the sake or our exchanges with
reporters/legislators etc as to how often any of you may have heard Soon or Baliunas
give a talk in an open meeting, where they could defend their analyses.
please respond to me as to whether you have heard either of them present something on
their paleo-analyses (I think I heard Baliunas speak once on her solar-type star work,
but that doesn’t count).
I will let you know the results of the poll so that we may all be on the same grounds
with respect to the data and reporting such information to press inquiries/legislators
etc.
further fyi I list below the journal impact for six geophysical/climate/paleoclimate
journals:
Paleoceanography 3.821
J. Climate 3.250
J. Geophysical Res. (Climate) 2.245
Geophysical Research Letters 2.150
The Holocene 1.852
Climate Research 1.016
Science and Nature are much higher (26-30) but there citation numbers are I believe
inflated with respect to our field because their citation ranking also includes many
very widely cited biology publications.
hope to hear from you soon, Tom

Thomas J. Crowley
Nicholas Professor of Earth Systems Science
Dept. of Earth and Ocean Sciences
Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences

______________________________________________________________
Professor Michael E. Mann
Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall
University of Virginia
Charlottesville, VA 22903
_______________________________________________________________________
e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137
http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Gabriele Hegerl – NOTE CHANGE IN ADDRESS FORMAT
Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences,
Nicholas School for the Environment and Earth Sciences,

http://www.env.duke.edu/faculty/bios/hegerl.html

Comments
  1. normalnew says:

    We have a situation where good people are held hostage to very bad ideas, and I for one think we should honor the goodness in man and let actions be questions for the law. Where everyone else is let free. Manipulation can happen to us all.