Archive for April, 2013


This is a sensible document: H/T to Gabe Rychert at Climate Realists

climbabelConsensus and Controversy

The Debate on Man Made Global Warming
Emil A.Røyrvik

Technology and Society

To illustrate the way that scientific, political and ethical concerns are mixed in the debate on Anthropogenic Global Warming this report used the by now famous quote from Gro Harlem Brundtland , that ”doubt has been eliminated”, and that it is ”irresponsible, reckless and deeply immoral to question the seriousness of the situation ” as a point of departure. The goal of the report was to enter this debate and “ battlefield ” of arguments and take stock of the debate about anthropogenic (man – made) global warming. Based on the present review of this debate there are several conclusions to be drawn. The first and simplest one is that considered as an empirical statement, the assertion that “doubt has been eliminated” on AGW is plainly false. Although as documented the level of agreement in the scientific literature that AGW is occurring is quite extensive, the magnitude of dissent, questioning and contrarian perspectives and positions in both scientific discourse and public opinion on the question of AGW evidently contradicts such a proclamation.


Congratulations to Nicola Scafetta, who has successfully published a new paper on sea level rise Multi-scale dynamical analysis (MSDA) of sea level recordsversus PDO, AMO, and NAO indexes in the  journal Climate Dynamics. This is a major paper, which undertakes a comprehensive review of recent studies, which diverge widely in their findings. He finds that the main reason for divergence is the length of records used in studies, and shows that the quasi-cyclic oscillations of the major ocean basins largely account for the differences in those studies conclusions. Developing a powerful analysis technique with strong visualisation, it is shown that the periodicity of the major oscillations, being 60 to 70 years, require a minimum record length of around 110 years in order to prevent polynomial fitting of long term secular trends being contaminated with shorter term quasi-cyclic variation. Using tide gauge records going back as far as 1700, Nicola compares the trends in sea level rise acceleration at widely spread geographical locations once the quasi-cyclic components are removed and finds the long term global average to be very small – around 0.01mm/yr. Very little difference is found between acceleration rates between the pre and post industrial eras. It is suggested the acceleration is a natural variation due to the recovery from the little ice age as part of a quasi millennial cycle which may continue until the mid C21st. In conclusion the study suggests that sea level rise during the C21st will be around 277+/-7mm, or about 9 inches.


Fig. 10 a Global sea level record (Jevrejeva et al. 2008) (left) and its
MSAA colored diagram (right).


Surfacestation: Myerscough

Posted: April 22, 2013 by tchannon in Analysis, Surfacestation


Image dated 2002. Various web sites show the site remains similar. New bedding 2005 and various other detail change. Brochures include site drawing showing a rectangle which is the met. enclosure.
Twice hottest place in UK April 2013 (that I noticed, don’t check every day)

Myerscough, Lancashire,
Myerscough College, Garden Centre and Arboretum

53.8538 -2.7668 Bing maps, Google maps
Altitude 14 metres

Estimated Class 4, fails Class 3 on “Away from all projected shade when the Sun is higher than 7°”, trees to south-west and west. Poor exposure.
I suspect it ought to be Class 5 but estimating shadow without more certain detail is impossible.
It is a microclimate.

UHI, local, distance, minor.



Courtesy Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos
Radiation instrument with cover removed

Since I have just made available numeric data which will add meat to talk about pyrgeometers and how heat behaves and travels in the atmosphere, a continuation of a long Talkshop thread can take place here. If you want to comment on what the Chilbolton data means, then this is the thread.

Original thread is here.



Example data. Lidar is useful in identifying cloud layers, clear sky, it cannot though see multiple layers, where radar images if available are more useful. Click to open full size.

[UPDATE 2013/05/05,  archive release with corrections] An unofficial high resolution dataset has been derived from web published graphs running from 16th February 2013 to 20th April 2013 (less 23rd Feb), just over 60 days of data at about 2.3 minutes resolution for about 23 hours a day. The data includes atmospheric water parameters and thermal radiation parameters, all measured from surface level. Archive period includes the exceptionally cold March 2013. The weather hereabouts was cold but unlike most of the rest of the UK there was little snow, nor was the temperature very low. (more…)


Barbury Crop Circle represents Pi

Update: I made a dumb algebra mis-step – back to the drawing board. 🙂

I believe I’ve found a new way to calculate the value of Pi. Before anyone starts shouting at me, the value I’ve arrived at is Pi, not some new number I’m claiming to be the circumference of a circle divided by its diameter.

So, what is the equation I’ve come up with which can calculate the value of Pi?

Here it is:



The UK Met Office write “Why was the start to spring 2013 so cold?

March 2013 was the second coldest March in the UK record since 1910, and was associated with a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. A number of potential drivers may predispose the climate system to a state which accounts for these conditions.”

“Potential”, “may predispose”? Does it or doesn’t it, don’t they know?

IMO the only good part of their web item is labelled (2) where the explanation may lie. The rest is flapping and jumping around over nothing. The Met Office are not very good with sequence, cause and effect.

“2. the Stratosphere – There is now a substantial body of evidence to show that during winter and early spring, sudden stratospheric warming events in the upper stratosphere over the North Pole can influence surface weather conditions over the UK some 2-3 weeks later.”

That is wrong in part, “during winter and early spring,”, it actually is any time, eg. the notorious Blogdale 2003 where I expect to have some revelations to make including the mess.


I’m looking into new ways of generating power in the backwoods. My previous efforts are a bit fragile and fiddly. What we need is a robust system like the free-piston Stirling engine pictured here. Animation below the break for those interested.



So it wasn’t just my greenhouse which got destroyed in the gales on earlier this week. This from the Industrial Wind Action Group:

NowindWind turbine collapses after bring battered by 70mph gales at farm
A 90ft turbine in Aberdeenshire has fallen after being battered by 70mph gales.
“It’s worrying because there are so many turbines in this area. If someone had been walking by when this came down it could have been very serious.”
April 18, 2013 in STV News
A 90ft turbine in Aberdeenshire has fallen after being battered by 70mph gales.The turbine is one of two belonging to Jim Anderson at his Ardiffery Mains home in Hatton.Following a night of gales Mr Anderson woke to find his turbine felled and the three blades scattered across the field. He used a tractor with a digger to gather them on Wednesday. (more…)

From the Telegraph:

Two Earth-like planets thought to be covered in water have been discovered orbiting a distant star and may even have the right conditions to support life.

Astronomers believe the two ocean dominated worlds, which are around one and a half times the size of Earth, lie within the so-called Goldilocks zone around their star.

This is the distance from the star where it would be neither too hot nor too cold for there to be liquid water on the planet surface.

Scientists using Nasa’s Kepler space telescope, which has been searching for habitable planets outside our solar system, spotted the two planets orbiting a star called Kepler-62 1,200 light years away.


Reblogged From The Hockeyschtick, with thanks to the KaltSonne blog and a H/T to Michele Casati:
A new paper published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Research shows solar activity peaked at the end of the 20th century, but predicts a strong decrease in solar activity until around 2100 AD to low levels similar to the Dalton Minimum.
Figure 4 from Steinhilber and Beer shows solar activity peaked at the end of the 20th century, but is predicted to decline to levels similar to the Dalton Minimum during the 21st century. The two different shades of gray correspond to two different models. The Dalton Minimum “D” and Maunder Minimum “M” are notated


Well, this ramps up the political game a bit. Climate hearings, should be good for some home truths being brought into the open I think. Who’s on-oath attendance should be required, and what questions should be put to them?



The Great Greenhouse Catastrophe of 2013

Posted: April 18, 2013 by tallbloke in Incompetence, Kindness, weather, wind

Lying in bed late last night as the wind shrieked itself into a howling gale, I heard the tinkling of breaking glass. Upon inspection through the bedroom window this morning, I was dismayed to see my greenhouse has been ripped off its moorings and thrown bodily against the dry-stone wall at the boundary of my garden.


It’s trashed. The frames are bent, and there’s broken glass everywhere 😦



NowindFrom Reuters – H/T to Richard Tol:
Czech grid acts to guard against German wind power surges
Wed, Apr 17 17:49 PM BST

By Jan Lopatka

PRAGUE, April 17 (Reuters) – Czech grid operator CEPS has backed a plan to build transformers to guard against excess flows of German wind-produced electricity which threaten neighbouring transmission systems, a CEPS official said on Wednesday.

The move could complicate efforts to find a regional solution to the problem of surges of renewable electricity from Germany.

CEPS Supervisory Board Chairman Tomas Huener told Reuters that the board approved a plan to install phase-shifters, or transformers, which will protect the Czech grid and could be built by 2016.


My Thanks to Paul Vaughan, who has sent me a plot he has made of the variation in the rate of solar rotation determined by Russian scientists A. G. Tlatov and V. I. Makarov in their 2005 paper ’22-Year Variations of the Solar Rotation’ and Jupiter-Earth-Venus alignment cycles. The J-E-V cycle and it’s close synchrony with solar activity indicators such as sunspot number and solar rotation has been a subject of investigation on this blog since it started in 2009. Many contributors have offered new insight to this fascinating subject, and there is now a substantial body of peer reviewed literature in this area, as well as many articles on this site from Astrophysicist Ian Wilson, researchers Roy Martin, Ray Tomes, Jean-Pierre Desmoulins, P.A. Semi, and myself. If I missed anyone, shout up and I’ll add your name to this list of J-E-V investigators.

J-E-V cycles compared to solar rotation rate 1910-2000

J-E-V cycles compared to solar rotation rate 1887-2003


a remarkable new oil and gas find that has gone almost unremarked:


U.S. Reserves up to 2010. The balance sheet now looks much healthier, but extraction costs are rising.

There it was, a remarkable stat buried among many that should have made everyone at the Dallas Convention Centre take a deep breath. According to the source, just one oil play in the Texas Midland Basin, the Spraberry/Wolfcap shale, may have a total recoverable resource of up to 50 billion barrels using new tight-oil extraction technologies. This revelation presents us all with an arresting number, if indeed that much oil is producible from a region already famous for its hydrocarbon potential. For one thing, supplementary data from the U.S. Energy Information Agency shows that only 1.3 billion barrels have been produced from the legacy region since its original discovery in 1949. So tapping into the multizone Spraberry/Wolfcap with horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing processes is a like finding a virgin oil field – a very big one at that.


Article from Reuters. The big media outlets are in open revolt it seems..

Greenhouse effectsScientists are struggling to explain a slowdown in climate change that has exposed gaps in their understanding and defies a rise in global greenhouse gas emissions.

Often focused on century-long trends, most climate models failed to predict that the temperature rise would slow, starting around 2000. Scientists are now intent on figuring out the causes and determining whether the respite will be brief or a more lasting phenomenon.

Getting this right is essential for the short and long-term planning of governments and businesses ranging from energy to construction, from agriculture to insurance. Many scientists say they expect a revival of warming in coming years.

Theories for the pause include that deep oceans have taken up more heat with the result that the surface is cooler than expected, that industrial pollution in Asia or clouds are blocking the sun, or that greenhouse gases trap less heat than previously believed.


It’s a big one. I hope the people there got clear of buldings in time. UPDATE from Reuters below the break.



Labour MEP Mary Honeyball thinks we’re trapped. I think I prefer UKIP’s message.


It is quite clear to that there will never be the agreement required from the 26 other EU member states for repatriation of powers to the UK – claims MEP

British Prime Minister David Cameron and his family visited Angela Merkel last weekend at the German Chancellor’s guest residence Schloss Meseberg. We do not, in any detail at least, know what they discussed other than what was issued in a brief statement from Number 10 Downing Street. It revealed the two leaders discussed the need for reform of the single market and both reportedly called for “urgent action to make the European Union more competitive and flexible”.

It is well documented that the German chancellor has been anxious regarding Cameron’s plan for a referendum on the issue of Europe. Along with the French President François Hollande, Merkel has formed an alliance to illustrate the level of disapproval.