More unexpected solar behaviour, solar magnetic dipole has not crossed zero

Posted: June 16, 2013 by tchannon in Solar physics

Image

Plot from Wilcox Solar Observatory
(http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/Dipall.gif)

This is fairly important news given the sun is strongly a magnetic entity, moreover this might be in line with some predictions about a kind of magnetic collapse.

  • Livingston and Penn work which suggests the visibility of sunspots will drop
Image

Note: NASA have used an offset Y axis zero which is misleading.

http://science1.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/03sep_sunspots/

  • Monopole solar activity as suggested was the case during a previous solar minimum based on work with unpublished solar drawings in Scaninavian university archives. (vague because I can’t remember the source)

The polar field is not known before recent times, deduced from spectroscopic work.

On looking back at various Talkshop articles the following surprise dated March 2011 turned up

SPF Tim

Vuc had helped out by telling me about data which extends the dataset back in time a little. I think more luck than law but it suggests there is a significant meaning in detail cyclic content.

Previous posts on this subject are best found by Google, which indexes blogs so here is a specific search phrase

site:tallbloke.wordpress.com wso polar

This article has been cross posted from my own blog daedalearth. Probably better if any discussion takes place on the Talkshop.

Tim

Comments
  1. J Martin says:

    in an off topic comment Vuk posted something on WUWT a couple of days ago showing that it had crossed over.

    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC6.htm

  2. J Martin says:

    Though I see Vuk’s graph is dated 27-05-2013

  3. tchannon says:

    I expect Vuk will be along. The data moves very slowly.

    A flat at crossover seems normal. I don’t know whether this is real or to do with the method of measurement.

  4. Doug Proctor says:

    The 2011 Scenario: nothing crossing is abnormal until after 2014?

    What is this unfair Y zero offset?

    Is this the magnetic 1500 value when sunspot activity stops entirely (Maunder type stopping)?

  5. Sparks says:

    Hi Tim,
    Can I ask, what exactly was expected and who expected it?

    I know the current solar cycle is the weakest observed for over 100 years, so we could only hypothesize on magnetic behavior during weak cycles.

  6. tchannon says:

    Sparks, previous discussions ended on assuming touching zero and then slightly crossing zero was going to continue.

  7. Sparks says:

    Ah, thanks Tim,
    I asked Leif Svalgaard about this weak cycle last week he said.

    “My prediction still stands at 70, but the final result will probably be a bit lower because of the Livingston&Penn effect, but it is hard to judge what the trend is, compare with cycle 14”

    It seems the L&P effect is considered to be playing a role.

    Tim, I’ve also been working on a resonance model and have plots you might find interesting.

    Resonance model: Greenwich monthly sunspot number record 1749-2013. Planetary resonance derived from Ephemerides DE 102.

    Resonance model: Greenwich monthly sunspot area record 1875-2013. Planetary resonance derived from Ephemerides DE 102.

    I have also plotted a resonance model of Earth, Venus and Jupiter, I don’t have the actual plot on this laptop but, it is similar to this plot of Earth- Jupiter distance derived from Ephemerides DE 102.

    Greenwich monthly sunspot area record 1875-2040. Jupiters distance from Earth derived from ephemerides DE 102. 1

    Greenwich monthly sunspot area record 1875-2040. Jupiters distance from Earth derived from ephemerides DE 102. 2

  8. tchannon says:

    I think Leif is assuming a fall in sunspot number will be largely down to L&P effect without activity being different. Time will tell.

  9. tchannon says:

    Doug, (nearly forgot you)
    Offset plots are frowned upon in formal circles.

    Yes there is supposed to be a visibility threshold effect. I didn’t add more because it would take time to dig out non-promotional straight stuff.. It’s been extensively covered most places.

    It might be that a gradual fall in something to do with the sun is linked to the L&P effect which also relates the amplitude of the dipole magnetic field variation.

  10. Stephen Richards says:

    Sparks says:

    June 16, 2013 at 7:10 pm

    Ah, thanks Tim,
    I asked Leif Svalgaard about this weak cycle last week he said.

    “My prediction still stands at 70, but the final result will probably be a bit lower because of the Livingston&Penn effect, but it is hard to judge what the trend is, compare with cycle 14″

    Sparks, I believe that NASA have set the value at 67 which is the max value reached so far in this cycle.

  11. vukcevic says:

    Hi boys
    Vuk has put his money where his mouth is. Convinced by my pseudoscience that the England’s summers are going to be mediocre and winters cold and miserable, except for first two days of a new snow, I’ve just bought a property in the south of France, where I am now.
    As far as solar dipole is concerned the ‘Stanford Solar Sage Svalgaard’ –SSSS for short has similar graph to mine here

    note: inverted dipole’s polarity scale(graph to the right).

    [not inlined image, Leif’s server bandwidth –Tim]

  12. Sparks says:

    tchannon says:
    June 16, 2013 at 8:19 pm

    I think Leif is assuming a fall in sunspot number will be largely down to L&P effect without activity being different. Time will tell.

    Tim, last year I thought it would be interesting to get an estimate of where the solar cycles would be through the maunder minimum. I used the periodic conjunction of Uranus and Jupiter and worked out the precession from ephemerides and used this time period to step back over the sunspot record.

    This is what I came up with.

    The blue line is approximately a 22 year mark, I noticed, if you divide each period of approximately 22 years by it self it will give the position of each solar minimum over the sunspot record from 1600 to the present. And what is even more interesting is if we divide each period by itself again it will mark every solar maximum on the Sunspot record.

    Pretty cool, right?

  13. Sparks says:

    Stephen Richards says:
    June 16, 2013 at 8:31 pm

    Sparks, I believe that NASA have set the value at 67 which is the max value reached so far in this cycle.

    True, but NASA’s prediction was originally much higher, I think Leif’s original Sunspot estimate has been 70 and is still 70.

  14. J Martin says:

    Vuk, what does WSO mean ?

    The painful part of buying a house in France is that 8% the estate agents want compared with the 1% or so in the UK.

    In case you were feeling homesick the temperature this weekend got as high as 16.5 degrees centigrade where I live in the South of the UK.

  15. vukcevic says:

    Hi JM
    And all other taxes…

    WSO =Wilcox Solar Observatory
    http://wso.stanford.edu/

  16. tchannon says:

    Sparks, 22 or 2x exact Jupiter orbit?

  17. E Hughes says:

    Solar activity currently increasing: http://www.solarham.net/
    Mercury is almost between us and the sun:


    [Image captured and archived on WP servers. Link below will be for new data. –Tim]

    http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23+00%3A44%3A00&window=-1&cygnetId=261

  18. AJB says:

    Don’t quite see what the fuss is about. Pull graph in here if you want Tim

    [click for full size]

  19. tchannon says:

    Any ideas why the WSO plot looks otherwise?

    Apart from a slight glitch around zero which seems present on all zero crossings I’d expected a simple crossing, hence I was surprised.

  20. AJB says:

    A case of apples and pears: http://s23.postimg.org/ht5yon72j/Dipole1.png

    That WSO solar dipole plot GIF file is time stamped 01 December 2012 01:06:08 on the server. I’ve aligned a Polar Field strength based plot above it for comparison.

    It is not derived from discrete polar field strength measurements. See this paper for an explanation of what it shows: http://sun.stanford.edu/~todd/publications/iau99267_PRF.pdf.

    Vuc plots the WSO Polar Field Strength data (North – South) as I’ve done above. If you blow up the end of that you can see that projection effect and both poles going positive for a time give a slightly distorted impression: http://s23.postimg.org/7x4vp01aj/Dipole2.png.

    The red dashed line is just a 3rd order poly fit, best ignored. The green grid lines indicate when the Sun’s axis is at 90° to the line of sight from Earth (i.e. the view of both poles is the same). You can see from the plot in my previous post that the 20nHz filters do a pretty good job of tracking observations at these times and eliminating the projection effect. You just need to be wary of the end effects, which is why I’ve truncated their plots.

    More intriguing is what causes the inflections in the 20nHz filtered values. It’ll be interesting to see what happens next, particularly around November 2015 and July 2017.

  21. Tenuc says:

    Looks like both N and S magnetic fields have now crossed, so we are at solar max …

    I find the weakness of the total mean most concerning as it is only ~60% as strong as at previous solar max …

    More cold N Europe winters to come as SC24 fizzles out over the next few years and an even weaker SC25 will not help matters.

  22. Sparks says:

    tchannon says:
    June 16, 2013 at 10:47 pm

    Sparks, 22 or 2x exact Jupiter orbit?

    Tim, sorry for the late reply! I used the exact distance between Uranus and Jupiter for the conjunction and plotted the date.