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I forgot to post when the late cherry blossom this year actually opened.
2nd May 2013, and picking started 6th July 2013
The weather continues English, there is no normal. During recent days we have a July heat wave but this is not days of blue sky, photo top right deliberately hides milky blue, glaring, humidity is high even though there has been little rain. Been overcast quite a lot. Might have peaked at 28C here today.
One again this looks like blocking weather, with east and north east wind as it was during the cold spring. As usual there is no way of knowing how long it will last.
I’ve chosen this representation of what is going on. Storms from the Atlantic are bouncing off, travelling north east past Scotland and Norway. Air is flowing from Scandinavia across to England.
This is forecast to carry on to the horizon of GCM but without any serious heat, perhaps into August. This would make it a hot summer.
Met Office forecast
A few days ago the Met Office issued a remarkably moderate press release forecast
It is likely to be the longest spell of warm and settled UK summer weather since July 2006, where temperatures were above 28 °C in many areas for a fortnight.
This weekend will see a good deal of sunshine across England and Wales, with maximum temperatures likely to be in the mid to high 20s. Some isolated spots in southern England could reach 30 °C on Sunday.
Northern Ireland and north-western parts of Scotland will see more in the way of cloud, with light rain possible at times and temperatures in the high teens to early 20s.
As we start next week, fine conditions are expected to continue in many places – with temperatures remaining well above average.
Nick Grahame, Chief Forecaster at the Met Office, said: “We have high pressure over the UK at the moment which normally brings us fine and settled weather at this time of year.
“The current outlook suggests this may be dominating our weather through next week and possibly out towards the middle of July.”
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2013/fine-july-weather
I’ve cut the last paragraph, usual strapline promotion. Go away.
Tim
Tallbloke's Talkshop 
‘Ere in the NW corner of the US,we have la nada conditions. The last three years of la nina it rained right up till July 4th, this year has been quite nicer,more like normal.
So, with the current Solar cycle/flare conditions, what do you see in the future for el nino returning in the Pacific ? That’s how I found your blog in the first place, when I was looking for info on the subject.
Great site ya have ‘ere, lots of great topics! 😉
Cheers
Glad to see you have nada conditions
We try, probably posting too much content. Where do you stop?
Some fun http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/hansen-1988-sun-controls-climate.html
Did Hansen really produce that one?
Hopefully Tallbloke and others will appear and hold froth (sic) on where things might go with Pacific cycles.
This is more of a winter type blocking scenario within a polar air mass with lower pressure in the Mediterranean and an East to North East flow across the UK.
A more typical summer type blocking scenario would be with the high pressure cell over Spain or France within a subtropical air mass.
Again, this constitutes a deformation of the usual zonal air flow as a result of low solar activity altering the gradient of tropopause height between equator and poles so as to allow the permanent climate zones to shift towards the equator which makes the jets more meridional.
Such deformation results in more regional extremes of weather globally but is part of a net global cooling process because the more meridional jets result in more cloudiness globally and less solar energy penetrating the oceans.
To answer E Hughes I expect La Nina to gradually gain dominance over El Nino for as long as the sun stays quiet.
In order to strengthen El Nino relative to La Nina again we need a more active sun, more poleward climate zones with their more zonal jets, less global cloudiness and more solar energy entering the oceans.
It’s an interesting phenomenom that my friends in the uk always quote the max temp forecast by the NOoL (UK met) when I ask how warm it is.
So, If the forecast on the BBc says max 28° then according to my friends it’s 28°c over the whole of the uk.
This blocking followed a strat Warming episode. See Roy Spencer’s site channel 6
I reported the Tim finger in air max for right here but you are right we do tend to quote limits.
Pull up the Chilbolton data from yesterday, is just over the downs (chalk hills) from here, rose from 10C around dawn to… 28C, noisy, would do when humidity is high and sky anything but clear. Not analysed the plots. But a few clicks and eyeballing…
Note the high water vapour value which is why net IR outbound is relatively low given the temperature. Slight wind came up from due east (same here), unusual direction for England.
Today it is milky sunny again, air feels cool but is going to be much the same as yesterday.
[S]SW, ah.
I’ve never heard of Roy’s channel 6. A search finds nothing. This is not the first time someone has mentioned his content where I fail to find anything at all.
tchannon says: July 8, 2013 at 11:13 am
“[S]SW, ah.
I’ve never heard of Roy’s channel 6. A search finds nothing. This is not the first time someone has mentioned his content where I fail to find anything at all.”
Try here Tim:
http://www.ssmi.com/msu/msu_introduction.html
RSS/MSU had four channels and used three of them against one channel (I think) to determine the temp of a given altitude (TLT, TMT, TTS and TLS). This utility operated from 1978 to 2005 and was superseded by the RSS/AMSU utility which began in 1998 (reasonable ‘overlap’ for data proofing).
I see no channel six for AMSU data either, so I can only presume that any ref to this channel is a pointer towards Dr Roy Spencer’s blog, though I may stand corrected on this point. 🙂
A search of Roy’s blog for “strat Warming episode” produced two hits;
Rise of the 1st Law Deniers (2011, comments on)
and;
ClimateGate and the Elitist Roots of Global Warming Alarmism (2009, comments off)
hope that helps.
Best regards, Ray.
Stephen Richards says: July 8, 2013 at 8:55 am
“This blocking followed a strat Warming episode. See Roy Spencer’s site channel 6”
I think we would all benefit from a URL pointing directly to where we can find this info.
Best regards, Ray.
Yesterday I mentioned milky white blue sky, here is the data for that day. Seems a near perfect insolation curve until you know there was heavy turbidity. Water vapour was high and rose further, registering water liquid, which I doubt. There was dew before dawn. Wind was again from the east with once again the dawn and dusk effect.
Weather people have been talking about muggy nights, difficult to sleep. Not around here, been quite chilly. I note the house core temperature is stuck at ~20C instead of rising in warm weather.
Today started clear blue, humidity came up but not as much, still an east wind, have to wait and see what the data shows.
None of this is surprising but I like to see confirmation of boring old normal, if blue sky and east wind are odd for England.
SSW, lets have a dig,
January 2013 seems there was an Arctic event, Met Office blog reported this
http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/tag/sudden-stratospheric-warming/
For the January 2013 event you might find this surprising, about time too attention was paid to real stuff rather than humans.
“GEOS-5 Analyses and Forecasts of the Major Stratospheric Sudden Warming of January 2013”
http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/researchhighlights/SSW/
As often the case the Irish ie.boards have a lot of sharp stuff, in this case expecting a winter SSW http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056803618
At lot out there on the Jan 2013 situation
Later in the year I can’t find anything.
tchannon says: July 9, 2013 at 8:32 pm
“SSW, lets have a dig,”
Nice links Tim. This is what I call, in engineering terms, ‘pump hunt’.
As the NH falls into winter insolation conditions, the Brewer Dobson circulation slows there. This puts ‘the brakes on’ for the atmospheric mass returning, at altitude, to the ‘polar vortex’ (the ‘plug-hole’ over the North Pole [true north]) and results in a weakening of the ‘vortex’ (the ‘spinny thing’ that you see as you drain the bath water).
With reduced flow through the vortex the ‘Polar Cell’s circulation driver’ (Earth’s rotation at the boundary layer) becomes more definitive (the region becomes more ‘vacuous’ [you’ll need to look for data pre the SSW to confirm this]), and, being opposing land masses 90 degrees away from opposing open ocean areas, the NH Polar Cell’s boundary layer configuration causes a split that divides the vortex into two vortices.
When two vortices exist at the NH Polar Cell’s centre the through-put of mass is increased because there is now ‘double’ the mass flowing from high to low altitude. This relieves the previously low pressure of the pre-SSW state and makes the ‘two vortices configuration’ unsustainable, leads on to a three vortices state and then to a chaotic state where the atmosphere virtually ‘falls’ from higher altitudes. The ‘pressure’ comes from the lack of centrifuge after the vortex has collapsed.
A cyclic variation in pressure for a centrifugal pump is termed ‘pump hunt’ in the engineering fraternity. Perhaps this data could be of use to these observations?
BTW, Roy Spencer, PhD. commented in his latest post and mentioned ‘channel 6’:
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/07/uah-v5-6-global-temperature-update-for-june-2013-0-30-deg-c/
“Roy W. Spencer, PhD. says: July 9, 2013 at 12:59 PM
It’s working for me, but there is a Java security warning that comes up. Ch. 5 failed on Aqua, which is the satellite used by that site, so using ch. 6 only gives a rough guide to tropospheric temperature.”
It looks like ‘channel 6’ isn’t reliable, but may offer insight. 😉
Best regards, Ray.
tchannon.
I’ve found a page at NASA’s “Arctic Ozone Watch” that describes the phenomenon well, with graphics:
http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/facts/warming_NH.html
I’ll continue to look for ‘live data’ in my spare time, though I’m not expecting to find much. Most data is ‘the temp at a pressure’ series and not ‘the pressure at an altitude’ series that could more easily disclose a temp change via a ‘P:V:T’ analysis for vortex instability. 😦
Best regards, Ray.
Some data is here http://macuv.gsfc.nasa.gov/OMIOzone.md
Seems ot be a back story where I am particularly wary given the ESA/Bremen Univ. playing blinker and models. I’m being non responsive at the moment, stuff going on.
Doh! Why didn’t I think of ‘Climate4you’. Ole Humlum masters an excellent site, with links to the relevant source data too. Perhaps it’s because I’ve forgotten how to link into the site’s directory structure. 😦
http://www.climate4you.com/
From the index page, click into the left-hand sidebar on the subject of ‘Air Pressure’ and you’ll see some nice polar graphs with links to the data employed.
I’ll let you digest these (when you have the time) and get back here later, as a lot of information in the graphs necessitates careful observation. I think you’ll realise that ozone’s structure/pattern is governed by dynamic pressure/flow and the ‘holes’ are a product of atmospheric subduction via a vortex near the centre of the Polar Climate Cell.
I’ve often asked myself whether the ‘ozone holes’ have always been there and we just ‘happened’ to notice them as our atmospheric observations got better.
Best regards, Ray.