A tangled web, SteveM gets to work.
The Talkshop gave the original hard shove after the eagle eye’d tried to get attention
https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2013/01/05/major-change-in-uk-met-office-global-warming-forecast/
Earlier this year, David Whitehouse of GWPF drew attention to a striking decrease in the UK Met Office decadal temperature forecast, that had been quietly changed by the Met Office on Christmas Eve. Whitehouse’s article led to some contemporary interest in Met Office decadal forecasts. The Met Office responded (see here); Whitehouse was also challenged by Greenpeace columnist Bob Ward.
Fast forward to July 10, 2013. Using UK Met Office decadal forecasts, Jeff Tollefson of Nature reported as a “News Feature” that “The forecast for 2018 is cloudy with record heat”, covered by Judy Curry here.
An innocent reader would presume that a Nature “News Feature” reporting on Met Office decadal forecasts would include the current Met Office decadal forecast. However, this proves not to be the case. Tollefson showed an older decadal forecast issued prior to the downward revision of the Met Office decadal forecast to…
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Tallbloke's Talkshop 
‘The successive iterations of Met Office models more or less flap to the leeward of observations, like a version of the Gambian flag in the trade winds.’
Brilliant!
Good idea to have SteveM on side but when I saw the comments, this is watch the fun time.
Yes, Ross McKitrick has noted in the comments:
‘Hadley is, in effect, predicting a crackup of the mainstream. And this happens just after the meme has been established that 97% of climate scientists are absolutely confident in the models and the science they embed, and 97% of climatology papers endorse the hypotheses. This is going to be good.’
If solar activity really is declining with the longer solar cycle(s) they are soon going to be struggling to justify their so-called science even more so than now (‘soon’ meaning in the next few years).
I like this Von Storch bit from the Judith Curry blog…
“SPIEGEL: Just since the turn of the millennium, humanity has emitted another 400 billion metric tons of CO2 into the atmosphere, yet temperatures haven’t risen in nearly 15 years. What can explain this?
Storch: So far, no one has been able to provide a compelling answer to why climate change seems to be taking a break. We’re facing a puzzle. Recent CO2 emissions have actually risen even more steeply than we feared. As a result, according to most climate models, we should have seen temperatures rise by around 0.25 degrees Celsius (0.45 degrees Fahrenheit) over the past 10 years. That hasn’t happened. In fact, the increase over the last 15 years was just 0.06 degrees Celsius (0.11 degrees Fahrenheit) — a value very close to zero. This is a serious scientific problem that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will have to confront when it presents its next Assessment Report late next year.
SPIEGEL: How long will it still be possible to reconcile such a pause in global warming with established climate forecasts?
Storch: If things continue as they have been, in five years, at the latest, we will need to acknowledge that something is fundamentally wrong with our climate models. A 20-year pause in global warming does not occur in a single modeled scenario. But even today, we are finding it very difficult to reconcile actual temperature trends with our expectations.”
Looks like the Met Office is facing a serving of humble pie as the old models divert from reality – be interesting to see how much they have backed off the level of CO2 climate forcing… 🙂