GCM conditions Tuesday Zulu, ie. Monday night. Temperature inversions are likely as layers push in. (red circle over region of interest added)
Looks like the heat wave is about to break with notable conditions over the next 3 days (writing this Sunday evening).
Today in central southern England it started overcast with an east wind after very clear air conditions late yesterday and overnight. Eventually during the afternoon the sun forced through heavy humidity to fairly blue sky, temperature approached 30C again, east wind continues.
Synoptic charts show collapse to a complex systems of lows over a wide area.
Tomorrow is forecast to be very hot (for us) in the south, past 30C. Going on memory the conditions look set for a temperature spike, troughs over southern areas with feed in from the continent. Expect some radio transmission abnormalities too.
Monday night the thunderstorms in France are expected to cross the channel so some flash, bang and slosh is likely. This evening a few might make it into the west country and Wales.
Capture situation Sunday evening, link is to live data
Sat24 / Meteox link, satellite IR with lightning overlay
I was hoping to capture the weather breaking with the Chilbolton data but the radiation instruments have been removed for service. Such is life.
When this lot is over I expect I will put together the saga about Met Office stations, quite a few snippets.
Tim
Tallbloke's Talkshop 
that is a complex synoptic pressure chart. It feels like a roulette wheel mprediction but surely temps are set to fall? Or am I mising something?
It’s one of from a sequence where I chose it for illustration purposes. The Met Office might be wrong but short term is not really a problem. I’ve kept quiet on the break because it is a dodgy situation trying to figure out when blocking will go away. If it has!
Good choice for many links here http://www.weathercharts.org/
It seems like this high pressure is taking heat all the way around the northern hemisphere, from west to east.
Jet stream forecast shows things are changing.
http://www.stormsurfing.com/stormuser2/images/dods/glob_250.swf
Reblogged this on CraigM350.
Here we go, Met Office scratching, never mind validity 😦
“Weather report
Revised Scotland 2013 maximum temperature.
Further observations have been received which indicate that the highest temperature seen in Scotland so far this year was 30.0 C at Auchtermuchty, Fife on Thursday 18 July. The records for the rest of the UK remain unchanged with Northern Ireland recording 30.1 C at Castlederg, and Wales reaching 31.4 C at Porthmadog on Friday 19 July. The UK and England maximum for 2013 remains the 32.2 C recorded at Hampton Water Works, southwest London on Wednesday 17 July. Issued at 0942 on Mon 22 Jul 2013.”
Auchtermuchty is a hand read private station, presumably in glass, is not absolute accurate to tenths of a degree (see BSI Standard) but the Met Office use tenths.
Is A. fair enough?
Somewhere close to this walled garden on a hill etc., is manual, someone has to walk there every day, won’t be far from a building.
56.2989 -3.20275
Bing maps
A quick squint around 13hr local, the horrible screen in a hedge near Gatwick airport, palleted setup too (poor performance) is running warm today, almost no wind
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/charlwood_latest_weather_graphs.html
See photos of the site
Figured here https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2012/09/09/wmo03769-charlwood/
Charlwood, wind shifted to south, up to 32.9C
The list is fun, with known particularly dodgy reading high. Reality is probably just over 30.0C
Latest observations – 1400 on 22 Jul 2013:
London & South East England
Benson 30.3 °C S 13 mph
Brize Norton 27.9 °C SSE 7 mph
Charlwood 32.9 °C S 8 mph
Gravesend 29.8 °C ENE 11 mph
Heathrow 32.2 °C SSE 7 mph
Herstmonceux 27.5 °C S 5 mph
High Wycombe 28.5 °C S 7 mph
Kenley 30.2 °C S 6 mph
Langdon Bay 27.3 °C E 10 mph
Manston 28.1 °C ESE 11 mph
Northolt 32.5 °C S 9 mph
Odiham 30.0 °C SSE 13 mph
Shoreham 23.3 °C SE 9 mph
Solent 24.4 °C SE 14 mph
South Farnborough 30.3 °C S 10 mph
St Catherine’s Point 21.0 °C ESE 5 mph
Thorney Island 25.6 °C S 14 mph
Kenley ought to be similar, still close urban.
Heathrow and Northholt airports with big roads right there.
Give it to 18hr local but then the search of manual stations by the Met Office will start. 🙂
UPDATE
Panning out as expected so far.
Met Office report
Bing links
Northholt
Heathrow
The weather has changed but will continue almost as hot for some time. Looks like a Leroux MPH is out in the Atlantic spinning “weather” across part of Spain and France up into the UK from it’s leading edge. This suggests south and south west winds but also cooler conditions for the western continent.
Pretty much on cue here. Thor was dumping a few rocks earlier but seems to have gone for breakfast now.
Folk have been asking me for a few years now when we would get some decent summer weather. 2013 I said, it’ll be one to remember. I said July would be hottest, with strong warming from 6/7th July, which was based entirely on heliocentric planetary analysis.
Few crackles yesterday, twack spots of water then nothing. Missed. Bright white overcast today.
What comes next Ulric?
Ulric said “I said July would be hottest, with strong warming from 6/7th July”
I wish I’d known that earlier in the year before I booked my holiday for the first two weeks of August. If I had known I might have booked for mid July instead.
Usually I book for the last week of July and the first week of August in the hope that that choice will provide two good weeks of sunshine in France where I mostly go for a summer break.
If I could know before hand which will be the two or three hottest weeks in the summer in France then I would book those.
Too early for a tip for 2014 I suppose ?
Weather guru Ken Ring says we’re in for a summer scorcher
02 January 2013
A WELL-known weather forecaster predicts Ireland is finally set for a summer scorcher after years of washouts.
http://www.independent.ie/weather/weather-guru-ken-ring-says-were-in-for-a-summer-scorcher-28953806.html
Ken Ring, who uses moon orbits to determine the weather, predicted this week’s heat wave back in January.
http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/long-range-weather-forecaster-ken-ring-predicts-a-warm-august-600030.html
Met office or moon! Take your pick!! This weather almanac is popular here in Ireland among the farming community. Intriguing! But they do seem to choose the dry periods (between all the usual regular rain) to get their silage in. So they either take on board what a bloke in New Zealand says about our weather Or maybe they just look out the window. Either way it seems better than the Met Eireann long range forecast!!
Moon orbits and sun cycles, whatever next!
Does the moon influence our weather and climate? Are there atmospheric tides!?
Apparently almanac 2014 holds some pleasant surprises, I wonder should I buy it?
It might be a good idea to see what Hubert Lamb had to say.
He was banished from England to Ireland during WW2. The Lamb periods are in a way an alamac in a general sense.
J Martin says:
“Too early for a tip for 2014 I suppose ?”
No not at all, I forecast solely by heliocentric planetary analysis so I can look at such detail for any year ahead. I would go for your usual last week of July and the first week of August for 2014.
Met Office: –
So they are using a magical 28C as a marker.
Bit of bother there… they ain’t got no consistent stations nor equipment.
How about revealing the raw evidence, all of it?
[…] tchannon on July 25, 2013 at 5:57 pm […]
Fast changing story as the Met Office make up their history, the wisdom of doing this is another matter.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_latest_weather.html
Bad move mentioned two known junk sties designed to run hot. Both share huge brick sun towers with ladders (too close to the screen), such is the dreadful exposure, both in gardens, orchards. Cherries are picked.
Question: why was it 3C to 6C colder than last time?