UK heat wave July 2013 set to break

Posted: July 21, 2013 by tchannon in weather

Image

GCM conditions Tuesday Zulu, ie. Monday night. Temperature inversions are likely as layers push in. (red circle over region of interest added)

Looks like the heat wave is about to break with notable conditions over the next 3 days (writing this Sunday evening).

Today in central southern England it started overcast with an east wind after very clear air conditions late yesterday and overnight. Eventually during the afternoon the sun forced through heavy humidity to fairly blue sky, temperature approached 30C again, east wind continues.

Synoptic charts show collapse to a complex systems of lows over a wide area.

Tomorrow is forecast to be very hot (for us) in the south, past 30C. Going on memory the conditions look set for a temperature spike, troughs over southern areas with feed in from the continent. Expect some radio transmission abnormalities too.

Monday night the thunderstorms in France are expected to cross the channel so some flash, bang and slosh is likely. This evening a few might make it into the west country and Wales.

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Capture situation Sunday evening, link is to live data

Sat24 / Meteox link, satellite IR with lightning overlay

I was hoping to capture the weather breaking with the Chilbolton data but the radiation instruments have been removed for service. Such is life.

When this lot is over I expect I will put together the saga about Met Office stations, quite a few snippets.

Tim

Comments
  1. Diogenes says:

    that is a complex synoptic pressure chart. It feels like a roulette wheel mprediction but surely temps are set to fall? Or am I mising something?

  2. tchannon says:

    It’s one of from a sequence where I chose it for illustration purposes. The Met Office might be wrong but short term is not really a problem. I’ve kept quiet on the break because it is a dodgy situation trying to figure out when blocking will go away. If it has!

    Good choice for many links here http://www.weathercharts.org/

  3. hunter says:

    It seems like this high pressure is taking heat all the way around the northern hemisphere, from west to east.

  4. Richard111 says:

    Jet stream forecast shows things are changing.

    http://www.stormsurfing.com/stormuser2/images/dods/glob_250.swf

  5. tchannon says:

    Here we go, Met Office scratching, never mind validity 😦

    “Weather report
    Revised Scotland 2013 maximum temperature.

    Further observations have been received which indicate that the highest temperature seen in Scotland so far this year was 30.0 C at Auchtermuchty, Fife on Thursday 18 July. The records for the rest of the UK remain unchanged with Northern Ireland recording 30.1 C at Castlederg, and Wales reaching 31.4 C at Porthmadog on Friday 19 July. The UK and England maximum for 2013 remains the 32.2 C recorded at Hampton Water Works, southwest London on Wednesday 17 July. Issued at 0942 on Mon 22 Jul 2013.”

    Auchtermuchty is a hand read private station, presumably in glass, is not absolute accurate to tenths of a degree (see BSI Standard) but the Met Office use tenths.

    Is A. fair enough?

    Somewhere close to this walled garden on a hill etc., is manual, someone has to walk there every day, won’t be far from a building.
    56.2989 -3.20275
    Bing maps

  6. tchannon says:

    A quick squint around 13hr local, the horrible screen in a hedge near Gatwick airport, palleted setup too (poor performance) is running warm today, almost no wind
    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/charlwood_latest_weather_graphs.html

    See photos of the site
    WMO 03769 close up

    Figured here https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2012/09/09/wmo03769-charlwood/

  7. tchannon says:

    Charlwood, wind shifted to south, up to 32.9C

    The list is fun, with known particularly dodgy reading high. Reality is probably just over 30.0C

    Latest observations – 1400 on 22 Jul 2013:
    London & South East England

    Benson 30.3 °C S 13 mph
    Brize Norton 27.9 °C SSE 7 mph
    Charlwood 32.9 °C S 8 mph
    Gravesend 29.8 °C ENE 11 mph
    Heathrow 32.2 °C SSE 7 mph
    Herstmonceux 27.5 °C S 5 mph
    High Wycombe 28.5 °C S 7 mph
    Kenley 30.2 °C S 6 mph
    Langdon Bay 27.3 °C E 10 mph
    Manston 28.1 °C ESE 11 mph
    Northolt 32.5 °C S 9 mph
    Odiham 30.0 °C SSE 13 mph
    Shoreham 23.3 °C SE 9 mph
    Solent 24.4 °C SE 14 mph
    South Farnborough 30.3 °C S 10 mph
    St Catherine’s Point 21.0 °C ESE 5 mph
    Thorney Island 25.6 °C S 14 mph

    Kenley ought to be similar, still close urban.

    Heathrow and Northholt airports with big roads right there.

    Give it to 18hr local but then the search of manual stations by the Met Office will start. 🙂

  8. tchannon says:

    UPDATE
    Panning out as expected so far.

    Met Office report

    Weather report
    Hottest day of 2013 so far.

    Observations indicate that today has been the hottest day so far this year. The highest temperatures were generally in southeast England, where Heathrow airport and Northolt both reached 33.5 C this afternoon, beating the previous record of 32.2 C at Hampton Water Works on Wednesday 17 July. The high temperatures were not confined to southeast England, with many other parts of the United Kingdom also having a very warm day. Cardiff Bute Park was the hottest place in Wales, reporting 29.4 C. Auchincruive in Ayrshire, Scotland saw 26.8 C and Castlederg in Northern Ireland reached 26.3 C. These temperatures did not break the respective records for each country though. Issued at 1910 on Mon 22 Jul 2013.

    Bing links
    Northholt
    Heathrow

    The weather has changed but will continue almost as hot for some time. Looks like a Leroux MPH is out in the Atlantic spinning “weather” across part of Spain and France up into the UK from it’s leading edge. This suggests south and south west winds but also cooler conditions for the western continent.

  9. AJB says:

    Pretty much on cue here. Thor was dumping a few rocks earlier but seems to have gone for breakfast now.

  10. Ulric Lyons says:

    Folk have been asking me for a few years now when we would get some decent summer weather. 2013 I said, it’ll be one to remember. I said July would be hottest, with strong warming from 6/7th July, which was based entirely on heliocentric planetary analysis.

  11. tchannon says:

    Few crackles yesterday, twack spots of water then nothing. Missed. Bright white overcast today.

    What comes next Ulric?

  12. J Martin says:

    Ulric said “I said July would be hottest, with strong warming from 6/7th July”

    I wish I’d known that earlier in the year before I booked my holiday for the first two weeks of August. If I had known I might have booked for mid July instead.

    Usually I book for the last week of July and the first week of August in the hope that that choice will provide two good weeks of sunshine in France where I mostly go for a summer break.

    If I could know before hand which will be the two or three hottest weeks in the summer in France then I would book those.

    Too early for a tip for 2014 I suppose ?

  13. Ray C says:

    Weather guru Ken Ring says we’re in for a summer scorcher
    02 January 2013
    A WELL-known weather forecaster predicts Ireland is finally set for a summer scorcher after years of washouts.
    http://www.independent.ie/weather/weather-guru-ken-ring-says-were-in-for-a-summer-scorcher-28953806.html

    Ken Ring, who uses moon orbits to determine the weather, predicted this week’s heat wave back in January.
    http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/long-range-weather-forecaster-ken-ring-predicts-a-warm-august-600030.html

    Met office or moon! Take your pick!! This weather almanac is popular here in Ireland among the farming community. Intriguing! But they do seem to choose the dry periods (between all the usual regular rain) to get their silage in. So they either take on board what a bloke in New Zealand says about our weather Or maybe they just look out the window. Either way it seems better than the Met Eireann long range forecast!!

    Moon orbits and sun cycles, whatever next!
    Does the moon influence our weather and climate? Are there atmospheric tides!?

    Apparently almanac 2014 holds some pleasant surprises, I wonder should I buy it?

  14. tchannon says:

    It might be a good idea to see what Hubert Lamb had to say.

    He was banished from England to Ireland during WW2. The Lamb periods are in a way an alamac in a general sense.

  15. Ulric Lyons says:

    J Martin says:
    “Too early for a tip for 2014 I suppose ?”

    No not at all, I forecast solely by heliocentric planetary analysis so I can look at such detail for any year ahead. I would go for your usual last week of July and the first week of August for 2014.

  16. tchannon says:

    Met Office: –

    Weather report
    High temperatures in July.

    The United Kingdom saw a prolonged period of high temperatures between Saturday 6 July and Thursday 24 July. A maximum temperature of 28 C or more was recorded at one or more location on each of those 19 days. The last time the UK saw such a long period of hot weather was August 1997 which also had a 19 day run of high temperatures. Temperatures are not expected to reach 28 C today. Issued at 1032 on Thu 25 Jul 2013.

    So they are using a magical 28C as a marker.

    Bit of bother there… they ain’t got no consistent stations nor equipment.

    How about revealing the raw evidence, all of it?

  17. […] tchannon on July 25, 2013 at 5:57 pm […]

  18. tchannon says:

    Fast changing story as the Met Office make up their history, the wisdom of doing this is another matter.

    Weather report
    High temperatures in July.

    July 2013 saw high pressure sitting over the UK bringing the longest spell of hot weather to affect the whole of the UK since July 2006. Temperatures exceeded 28 C somewhere in the UK for 19 consecutive days and 30 C for seven consecutive days 13 – 19 July. On 22 July, 33.5 C was recorded at Heathrow and Northolt – the highest temperature recorded in the UK since July 2006. July 2006 was the hottest month on record in the UK with a mean temperature of 17.8 C and saw the record July maximum temperature of 36.5 C at Wisley, Surrey on the 19th. UK maximum temperature record is 38.5 C at Faversham, Kent, on 10 August 2003. Issued at 1500 on Thu 25 Jul 2013.

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_latest_weather.html

    Bad move mentioned two known junk sties designed to run hot. Both share huge brick sun towers with ladders (too close to the screen), such is the dreadful exposure, both in gardens, orchards. Cherries are picked.
    Question: why was it 3C to 6C colder than last time?