 | Phoenix44 on Swiss parliament snubs Europea… |
 | saighdear on Swiss parliament snubs Europea… |
| saighdear on Swiss parliament snubs Europea… |
 | energywise on Swiss parliament snubs Europea… |
 | brianrlcatt on Swiss parliament snubs Europea… |
| saighdear on Swiss parliament snubs Europea… |
| saighdear on Suggestions-50 |
 | oldbrew on Exploding nova alert |
| oldbrew on Suggestions-50 |
| Phoenix44 on Exploding nova alert |
| oldbrew on Why is June so cold and when w… |
| oldbrew on Why is June so cold and when w… |
 | liardetg on Why is June so cold and when w… |
 | stpaulchuck on New discovery reveals that oce… |
| brianrlcatt on Suggestions-50 |
GCM conditions Tuesday Zulu, ie. Monday night. Temperature inversions are likely as layers push in. (red circle over region of interest added)
Looks like the heat wave is about to break with notable conditions over the next 3 days (writing this Sunday evening).
Link to UK government news release as copied above
This story released dog day Friday at the end of term… is already widely picked up by the news print media.
Tim writes, I don’t get it, why manipulate instead of simply providing a straight honest regime over the years? If hard brass is there the herds will start work.
Graphic provided by Nicola Scaffeta, an update updated figure with a direct comparison with the IPCC models.
Above is updated graphic, notes on the above at the end of this web page.
Cite as: Scafetta, N., Solar and planetary oscillation control on climate change: hindcast, forecast and a comparison with the CMIP5 GCMs. Energy & Environment: special volume ‘Mechanisms of Climate Change and the AGW Concept: a critical review’. Vol. 24 (3&4), Page 455-496 (2013). DOI 10.1260/0958-305X.24.3-4.455 Nicola Scafetta has a new paper where he presents a compromise heuristic global temperature model based on a variety of factors, many familiar to regular Talkshop readers. Preprint here. (more…)
From the HockeyShctick, via GWPF:
A paper published by the Danish Meteorological Institute finds a remarkable correlation of Arctic sea ice observations over the past 500 years to “the solar cycle length, which is a measure of solar activity. A close correlation (R=0.67) of high significance (0.5 % probability of a chance occurrence) is found between the two patterns, suggesting a link from solar activity to the Arctic Ocean climate.”
The paper adds to several others demonstrating that Arctic sea ice extent and climate is controlled by natural variations in solar activity, ocean & atmospheric oscillations, winds & storm activity, not man-made CO2.
 |
| Solar Cycle Length [SCL] shown by dotted line, Koch sea ice extent index from observations in the Greenland Sea shown by solid line. |
India’s move to stabilize its power grid by asking wind farms to accurately predict their output a day in advance or face fines will deepen the slowdown in Asia’s second-biggest wind market,Tata Power Co. (TPWR) said.
A directive took effect this week ordering wind farms with a capacity of 10 megawatts or more to forecast their generation in 15-minute blocks for the following day. Missing estimates by more than 30 percent will incur penalties.
“Forecasting at 15-minute intervals is very challenging,” and could cost a 100-megawatt farm an estimated 250 million rupees ($4.2 million) a year, Tata Power said in an e-mailed response to questions. “Developers will see this as a further handicap” and penalties will “jeopardize” the industry’s growth, the nation’s second-biggest developer said.
India’s wind market is already reeling from a 42 percent plunge in turbine installations in the last financial year after the government withdrew subsidies. Some of the biggest developers including Tata Power, CLP Holdings Ltd. (2), and Goldman Sachs Group (GS) Inc.-backed ReNew Wind Power Pvt. have slowed plans for new projects, while turbine sales plunged forSuzlon Energy Ltd. (SUEL) and Gamesa Corp Tecnologica SA. (GAM)
The order from India’s Central Electricity Regulatory Commission took effect yesterday. Wind farms will use seasonal records and weather forecasting tools for their estimates. Fines will be paid to state utilities through a new Renewable Regulatory Fund.
A new paper on Methane is out which is fanning the dying embers of climate catastrophism:
@RogTallbloke @takvera @AGWobserver Methane did level off for a while starting around 1990, but ~5 years ago began rising again. 1/2
— Steve Bloom (@stevebloom55) July 17, 2013
@RogTallbloke @takvera @AGWobserver Big picture is the (unique in paleogeology) Arctic shelf CH4 supply is huge, enough for catastrophe. 7/n
— Steve Bloom (@stevebloom55) July 17, 2013
It’s worth reading this Reblog from worldclimatereport.com for some context
One of the indisputable facts in the field of global climate change is that the atmospheric build-up of methane (CH4) has been, over the past few decades, occurring much more slowly than all predictions as to its behavior (Figure 1). Since methane is a particularly potent greenhouse gas (thought to have about 25 times the warming power of CO2), emissions scenarios which fail to track methane will struggle to well-replicate the total climate forcing, likely erring on the high side—and feeding too much forcing into climate models leads to too much global warming coming out of them.
A tangled web, SteveM gets to work.
The Talkshop gave the original hard shove after the eagle eye’d tried to get attention
https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2013/01/05/major-change-in-uk-met-office-global-warming-forecast/
Earlier this year, David Whitehouse of GWPF drew attention to a striking decrease in the UK Met Office decadal temperature forecast, that had been quietly changed by the Met Office on Christmas Eve. Whitehouse’s article led to some contemporary interest in Met Office decadal forecasts. The Met Office responded (see here); Whitehouse was also challenged by Greenpeace columnist Bob Ward.
Fast forward to July 10, 2013. Using UK Met Office decadal forecasts, Jeff Tollefson of Nature reported as a “News Feature” that “The forecast for 2018 is cloudy with record heat”, covered by Judy Curry here.
An innocent reader would presume that a Nature “News Feature” reporting on Met Office decadal forecasts would include the current Met Office decadal forecast. However, this proves not to be the case. Tollefson showed an older decadal forecast issued prior to the downward revision of the Met Office decadal forecast to…
View original post 1,155 more words
Presidential decree trumps common sense and economic reality:
From the BBC: H/T David Vance
French President Francois Hollande has again ruled out exploration for shale gas during his presidency.
The comments come as a French court was due to examine an appeal against a government ban on “fracking”.
France has some of the most plentiful reserves of shale gas in Europe, but there are objections to shale exploration on environmental grounds.
“As long as I am president, there will be no exploration for shale gas in France,”
Mr Hollande told French TV.
“Because they can, Dad”
Doug writing on the Snowdon thread left this nicely written text
“You do not have to harbour secret, revolutionary thoughts to be frightened and shell-shocked by the behaviour of the American government to those it feels act or may act against its current, and very malleable, interests. I was a supporter of the US of A despite its loudness, crass consumerism and its swagger. The US has dragged the rest of the world into the 21st century kicking and screaming. If not for the American attitude of “get-er-done-now” we’d be living in a British-European way of status quo of perhaps the 1930s. Not that would necessarily be bad, but I doubt that I’d be typing on an iPad mini using a Bluetooth keyboard in a restaurant right now.
Yet that brashness and control in my opinion has, since the 1980s,
‘What he has disclosed is patently in the public interest and as a whistleblower his actions were justified’ – Sergei Nikitin
The U.S. administration has gone off the rails and as well as imposing a ‘climate solution’ based on false science, uses secret courts to justify breaking the U.S. constitution and international law:
From Amnesty.org.uk
Speaking after taking part in a meeting with the US whistleblower Edward Snowden at Moscow’s Sheremetyevo Airport earlier this afternoon, Sergei Nikitin, Head of Amnesty International’s Moscow office, said:
“Amnesty International was pleased to reiterate our support for Edward Snowden in person.
“We will continue to pressure governments to ensure his rights are respected – this includes the unassailable right to claim asylum wherever he may choose.
Guest post from Battersby:
The notion of accepting ‘The Facts’ about wind power from the wind power industry is about as sensible as accepting from the only bloke that was there that those rough-hewn tablets of stone were indeed commandments passed down from Doug. As he hastily hid his chisels, I imagine Moses also buried what was left of his integrity. Here was his big chance of passing into history. We must assume the Chris Huhnes, Tim Yeos and all the others who will profit from government profligacy with our money have similarly convinced themselves it isn’t just a dream. Otherwise they’d just be liars.And so the wind power swindle rumbles on as plans for the world’s biggest offshore wind farm have been approved. Triton Knoll, a £3.6bn project will cause 288 giant wind turbines to be erected off the coast near Skegness. ‘The Facts’ from the consortium responsible – Line Our Pockets With Gold Incorporated – are that this will generate 1.2 gigawatts of electricity, and supply power to the best part of a million homes.
Image courtesy Microsoft and providers, please strictly non-commercial.
Bing image location 50.7795 -1.83622
Highest reported temperature was at Hurn (Bournemouth Airport) a known poor synoptic Met Office site, although it could be worse. There is a bit of a mystery.
24 hours ending 2200 on 14 Jul 2013:
UK Highest max 0900-2100 31.0 °C Hurn
Lowest max 0900-2100 12.9 °C Lerwick
Lowest min 2100-0900 3.6 °C Katesbridge
Highest rainfall 2100-2100 4.8 mm Cassley
Sunniest 2100-2100 14.3 hours Morecambe
Last updated: 0001 on Mon 15 Jul 2013
The Met Office hourly data for Hurn peaks at 29.0C, so there is a brief peak for some reason. Looking at other data 29 or so would be fair enough. How did 2C materialise?
The dear Met Office have been pushing over the past few days about HOTTEST EVER THIS YEAR. Face it Met Office, enjoying life does not involve screaming or fear unless you are a kid.
Current 2013 UK maximum temperature confirmed
The current 2013 UK maximum temperature was recorded on Saturday 13 July, with 31.4 C at Heathrow. Wales also saw its highest 2013 temperature with 30.2 C at Llysdinam. The previous maximum of 29.9 C from Monday 8 July, at Edenfel, remains the current highest for Northern Ireland. Scotland saw its highest 2013 temperature on Tuesday 9 July, with 28.7 C at Strathallen Airfield. Issued at 2319 on Sat 13 Jul 2013.
Heathrow like most temperature breakers is a defective site. How about fixing it?
Last night I attended a lecture at the university’s chemistry dept. by Susan Solomon, IPCC lead author and architect of the Montreal Protocol on CFC’s. The subject was:
Surprises in Radiative Forcing: What Chemicals Are Changing Our Recent Climate?
In it she outlined an explanation for the ‘hiatus’ or ‘standstill’ in global warming since around the turn of the millennium. I’ll give only a brief synopsis here, since the vid I made of the whole lecture is uploading on youtube and will be added to the post soon. Basically, Prof Soloman says the hiatus is due to a combination of two factors: A reduction in stratospheric water vapour concentrations, and the effect of volcanic SO2 based aerosols getting into the stratosphere from smaller than expected volcanoes.
I think the second of these is pretty dubious myself, but hey, she’s supposed to be the expert.
Steve McIntyre responds to arm waving and accusations from Gavin and the Real Climate CRU
[mod: Apologies to Steve for miss-spelling his name. Pointed out by an Ian, thank you. –co-mod]
Several readers have asked me to respond to recent comments about me at Real Climate: briefly, Osborn has made one misrepresentation after another and made statements with seemingly complete indifference as to whether he has any basis for making the claims.
In respect to Schmidt’s whinge, as Lucia sagely observed a couple of years ago in connection with Schmidt’s defence of upside-down Tiljander, one cannot assume that people actually asked the questions that Schmidt says they asked or that his answers are adequate because he says so:
I might suggest that you are assuming that people asked the questions Gavin says they asked, and that Gavin’s answer to their questions is adequate because Gavin tells us his answer is adequate.
Schmidt and Osborn’s most recent comments were on July 2, the last day that comments were open on the thread, otherwise I would have attempted to respond at Real…
View original post 4,752 more words
From the Guardian:
The world’s best site for tidal power, the Pentland firth, could provide half of Scotland‘s electricity, according to the first robust estimate of its potential. The tidal streams, which surge through the firth at five metres per second, could bring large amounts of renewable energy in reach within a decade if enough government support is available, said the Oxford University engineer behind the new study.
From Anglesey to the Severn estuary to Portland Bill, the UK has the greatest potential for generating predictable, clean energy from tidal channels. Turbines are already operating at Strangford Loch in Northern Ireland and prototypes are being tested in the Menai Straits off Anglesey.
Meanwhile the Royal society hands big funding to Stephan Lewandowsky and a prominent UK university appoints him to a professorship. This stinks. Strong proof that academia has abandoned serious scientific enquiry into the strong uncertainty surrounding the physical processes which affect the carbon cycle.
The ghost of Lysenko stalks the corridors of academia.
People send me stuff.
Just last week we heard that Dr. Robert Carter had been blackballed at his own university where he served as department chair, and now we have this from Dr. Murray Salby, sent via email.
Between John Cook, Stephan Lewandowsky, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, plus Mike Marriot and his idiotic ideas, I’m beginning to think Australia is ground zero for AGW crackpottery.
This email’s accusations (if true I have independent confirmation now, title changed to reflect this – Anthony) is quite something, it illustrates the disturbing lengths a university will go to suppress ideas they don’t agree with. So much for academic freedom at Macquarie University.
From: [redacted]
Sent: Monday, July 08, 2013 2:25 PM
To: [redacted]
Subject: From Murry Salby
View original post 1,046 more words
 |
 |
I forgot to post when the late cherry blossom this year actually opened.
2nd May 2013, and picking started 6th July 2013
The weather continues English, there is no normal. During recent days we have a July heat wave but this is not days of blue sky, photo top right deliberately hides milky blue, glaring, humidity is high even though there has been little rain. Been overcast quite a lot. Might have peaked at 28C here today.
There has unfortunately been an aircraft crash at San Francisco. The talkshop extends our condolences to the families of the two people who lost their lives and best wishes to the injured for speedy recoveries.
When I heard detail news from an eyewitness I immediately thought of a 777 type problem.
I want to avoid scaremongering so up front, on checking the engines are different. NOT COMMON
However on looking for a good link I discover the Daily Mail have the same thought and have up photographs of both crashes.
You are all able to find news elsewhere.
[update:
An Asiana Boeing 777-200, registration HL7742 performing flight OZ-214 from Seoul (South Korea) to San Francisco,CA (USA) with 291 passengers and 16 crew, touched down short of runway 28L impacting the edge separating the runway from the San Francisco Bay 115 meters/375 feet ahead of the runway threshold while landing on San Francisco’s runway 28L at 11:27L (18:27Z), the tail plane, gear and engines separated, the aircraft came to a rest left of the runway about 490 meters/1600 feet past the runway threshold. — Aviation Herald
[UPDATE 2]
“Confirm no G/S on both 28L and 28R. PAPI only”
and the FAA proof
This is Navy modelling of an extremely difficult parameter, Evaporative Ducting and yes the scale is feet. Direct linking to these mil.gov maps via https is not possible, so try this https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/index.html
Flat Earth anti-proof is at the end, skip too much, it won’t make sense.
Tallbloke's Talkshop 