Paul Hudson: Rare solar cycle has cold implications for UK climate

Posted: September 12, 2013 by tallbloke in Analysis, Cycles, Forecasting, general circulation, Ice ages, solar system dynamics, volcanos, weather, wind

uksnowice

From the Talkshop’s favourite weatherman at the BBC Paul Hudson comes news of a possible run of colder weather and climate for the UK. This will be no surprise for talkshop regulars, where we have been predicting a solar slowdown for a few 11y cycles since the blog started in 2009. Nice to get some confirming support from Paul and good to see him sticking his neck out on a 20+ year weather prediction.

NASA last week confirmed their prediction that the current solar cycle 24 is likely to be the weakest since 1906.

Intriguingly, the current solar cycle shows a striking similarity with solar cycle 5 which was also very weak, with the same double peak as the current cycle, and ran from approximately the mid 1790s to around 1810.

Solar cycle 6 was weaker still and stretched from around 1810 to the early 1820s.

Solar cycles 5 and 6 were so unusual that they were named the Dalton solar minimum after meteorologist John Dalton and coincided with a period of increasingly cold winters and poor summers.

This type of climate is a result of a jet stream that’s positioned further south than normal – caused, it’s thought at least in part, by the behaviour of the sun.

The mechanism as to why weak solar cycles may affect the position of the jet stream is poorly understood.

But a more southerly positioned jet stream is the reason why the UK has recently seen a return of cold snowy winters and a run of poor summers.

Should solar activity continue to mirror that which was observed from 1795 to 1820 then it’s possible that our weather could be similar too.

But despite some temporary warmer interludes, historical weather records give a good indication of the type of weather the UK could experience should current solar activity continue to mirror that which was observed during the Dalton minimum over 200 years ago.

Read the rest here

 

And it’s sobering to remember that the Dalton solar minimum lasted for 25 years.

Comments
  1. tracycoyle says:

    Is it possible that the jet stream needs a certain amount of pressure below and above it and that as the atmosphere ‘shrinks’ it migrates further south to find that balance? During higher levels of solar activity the atmosphere ‘grows’ and the jet stream is further north. Just thinking out loud

  2. Graeme No.3 says:

    Do I understand you? That less energy from the sun lowers the height of the troposphere, so the jet stream can flow further away from the pole? Presumably this means the jet stream remains at the same height so this could be measured for confirmation.

  3. Stephen Wilde says:

    I think it is a matter of solar variations affecting the balance of ozone creation / destruction in the stratosphere differently above the equator as compared to above the poles.

    The only reason we have a tropopause in the first place with its temperature rising instead of falling with height is the fact that ozone is heated directly by incoming solar radiation.

    More ozone in the stratosphere above the poles relative to that in the stratosphere above the equator when the sun is less active will warm the stratosphere above the poles, push tropopause height down and send more surface cold air towards the equator.

    When the sun is active the opposite seems to occur.

    In effect, the jets and climate zones shift latitudinally beneath the tropopause in response to solar variations which then affects total global cloudiness and the amount of solar energy able to enter the oceans.

    That also explains why the ozone holes became larger and the stratosphere cooled when the sun was active whereas the opposite seems to be happening now.

    CFCs may not have been a significant culprit at all.

  4. Graeme No.3 says:

    Thank you, Stephen.
    As hysteria fades some of the old ideas are being looked at and improved.

    Re CFC’s: A quick look at the volume produced against date, coupled with the knowledge that most of the early users were in the northern hemisphere, makes the appearance of the ‘ozone hole’ over the south pole in 1957 (as determined in hindsight) rather hard to explain as due to CFC’s.

  5. Has there been any further research on the change in UV between minimum and maximum?

    ‘Figure 2 shows the modeled zonal mean temperature difference throughout the whole column of atmosphere from 85 km down to the surface for solar minima minus solar maxima conditions. In general, very large temperature cooling of about 1 to 2°C in the mesosphere and stratosphere were seen in response to the large solar UV irradiance difference between solar activity minima and maxima, as suggested by Harder et al.’s SIM data. However, there are also regions of significant warming in the middle to high latitude regions of the surface-troposphere in the Northern hemisphere, which is probably a result of dynamical adjustments (rather than any strict radiation effects imposed from the top and throughout the whole atmospheric column). This finding contradicts the argument that the whole atmospheric column will warm or cool homogenously, which argument has been used by climate alarmists to dismiss any significant role of solar irradiance forcing on climate.’
    http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2011/nov/2nov2011a3.html

  6. ren says:

    Lock the polar vortex is severely felt in winter. The reason for inhibition of polar vortex is smaller temperature differences in the ozone layer, associated with an increase in temperature above the Arctic Circle. Probably caused by changes in solar activity, since such situations are also found in the middle of winter, when the surface is cold one. Of course, such anomalies have occurred before, but this year they are strong both North and South. Braking in the upper stratosphere causes the jet stream circles in the lower spreading, and the jet stream slows down. This current example in the south.

  7. Richard111 says:

    Total layman question; won’t the reduced solar UV effect the jet stream?

  8. ren says:

    I have a question layman or only UV is able to raise the temperature in the stratosphere? It is known that cosmic rays directly reacts with the atmosphere to form large bundles of secondary particles, including photons. And at low solar activity, this radiation is increasing, especially in the vicinity of the magnetic poles, where it is focused by the field of the Earth.

  9. ren says:

    It is interesting that the overall temperature of the stratosphere over the South Pole is a record low. Perhaps in this situation, even a small jump in temperature may cause a strong anomaly.

  10. mkelly says:

    Eddard Stark was correct “Winter is coming.”.

  11. tchannon says:

    Yesterday I put up a quick article about polar atmospheric height, ozone and perhaps magnetic field.

    This might give some clues but will take a bit more than a quick glance.

    I have put together 3 factors. 1hPa will give a measure of atmospheric thickness and hence tropospheric boundary height. ren might be able to say more.

    http://daedalearth.wordpress.com/2013/09/12/high-altitude-atmospheric-pressure-and-ozone-south-pole/

  12. Paul Vaughan says:

    Lord Beaverbrook (September 13, 2013 at 7:53 am) wrote: “This finding contradicts the argument that the whole atmospheric column will warm or cool homogenously, which argument has been used by climate alarmists to dismiss any significant role of solar irradiance forcing on climate.’”

    Another CDO (Convenient Dramatic Oversimplification) used for NO reason other than to keep modeling math tractable (with absolutely NO physical justification WHATSOEVER) is assumption of no net poleward heat transport — they just make up an artificial requirement for atmosphere & ocean components to balance — makes the math infinitely simpler, but it’s so ridiculously unphysical it’s easy to see why Joanne Nova jubilantly displays an axe alongside announcements of funding cuts. Policy Makers: Find out if the math is truly intractable or just very difficult. If it’s truly intractable I guarantee you the modelers WILL keep making CDOs no matter how much pressure is on them from skeptics. That’s important. Note that in this case you CANNOT pressure them into straightening up. In that case the ONLY solution is to eliminate funding. If the math is merely difficult, get some piercingly clever, trusted observers to figure out a better approach to making the math tractable. It shouldn’t take a field math genius handling monstrous equations to make the problem tractable — if that scenario is arising, there’s something wrong with conceptualization at a more philosophically fundamental level — i.e. the question itself they’re trying to answer is fundamentally misformulated. Regards.

  13. Paul Vaughan says:

    Tim, the steepest equator-pole absolute-temperature gradients are either poleward side of the PWP (Pacific Warm Pool). I recommend to everyone tediously careful study of the climatology maps at ERA-40 Atlas & JRA-25 Atlas (for example they both show the average annual ozone cycle).

  14. ren says:

    Tchannon mówi:
    Wczoraj umieścić na szybki artykuł o polarnym ozonu atmosferycznego i wysokości, być może pole magnetyczne.
    [mod: yesterday put you on a quick article about the polar atmospheric ozone and height to the magnetic field can ]

    Take a look at the temperature.

    And now the magnetic field.
    The inner one, located between about X = 1.1 – 3.3 Re (Earth radii, geocentric) in the equatorial plane, contains primarily protons with energies exceeding 10 MeV. Flux maximum is at about X = 2 Re. (Distances given here are approximate, since the location of particles is energy dependent.) This is a fairly stable population but subject to occasional perturbations due to geomagnetic storms, and varying with the 11-year solar cycle. The source of protons in this region is the decay of cosmic ray induced albedo from the atmosphere.
    As a result of the offset between the Earth’s geographical and magnetic axes, the inner belt reaches a minimum altitude of about 250 km above the Atlantic Ocean off the Brazilian Coast. This South Atlantic Anomaly occupies a region through which low-orbiting satellite frequently pass. Energetic particles in this region can be a source of problems for the satellites and astronauts.

  15. michael hart says:

    “..assumption of no net poleward heat transport..’
    Is that really true, Paul? I’m a fairly hard boiled skeptic, but that takes my breath away.

  16. Paul Vaughan says:

    @ michael hart (September 13, 2013 at 4:36 pm)

    Soon, W.; & Legates, D.R. (2013). Solar irradiance modulation of equator-to-pole (Arctic) temperature gradients: empirical evidence for climate variation on multi-decadal timescales. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 93, 45-56.

    Click to access soon_legate.pdf

    “[…] implicit assumptions of the Bjerknes compensation, which assumes the maintenance of a constant total poleward energy transport that then provides an internally self-regulating inverse relation between oceanic and atmospheric heat transport fluxes”

  17. tchannon says:

    I’d forgotten about that particular radiation belt so yes it would make sense if this messes with satellite instruments.

  18. timspence10 says:

    There’s a dilema here in that another tough winter could damage the warmist camp but obviously a lot of poor and old folk too. Still, bet your bottom dollar that the warmist camp are rooting for the next strong el Niño.

  19. Paul Vaughan says:

    michael, the assumption is INSANE. It’s STRICTLY at odds with analyses I’ve done of well-constrained observational data regardless of methodology. I’ve often wondered about some of the more ridiculous arguments I’ve encountered in climate discussions — arguments that people asserted aggressively that made absolutely no sense whatsoever in the context of the data — as if their confidence was based strictly in abstract modeling theory. I only recently learned of this silly, normally-unspoken assumption. I now suspect it was at the root of some of the false confidence I’ve encountered in the past, alongside the PATENTLY false (but tragically widespread) assumption of spatiotemporal uniformity.

  20. Steven Mosher says:

    “Should solar activity continue to mirror that which was observed from 1795 to 1820 then it’s possible that our weather could be similar too.”

    “”At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.”

    Isnt it interesting that we see parallel types of “predictions” from both extreme camps.

    If A , then maybe we might see disaster.

    of course ‘A’ never happens, so the prediction is safe form being falsified.

  21. Paul Vaughan says:

    @ tchannon (September 13, 2013 at 5:39 pm)

    The satellites themselves move with the solar cycle. Interestingly the mainstream does not deny this. They know the shape of the atmosphere changes with the solar cycle. Otherwise the engineers would not be able to keep satellites in orbit. It’s only when the same logic is applied to climate that we encounter viciously intense obfuscation from thought-policing distortion artists (“convenient” administrative double-standard on admissibility of black-&-white-type evidence depending on context). The satellite orbit data are available. They’re low-level classified. All you have to do to get access is fill out some forms and agree to not show results of analyses publicly. I would very much like to comment on what I found, but I agreed to follow the rules. Why do the authorities demand secrecy on this? I believe the answer to this question is dead simple.

  22. Sparks says:

    “Rare solar cycle has cold implications for UK climate

    I don’t agree with the suggestion/assumption that weak solar cycles are ‘rare’.

  23. tallbloke says:

    Steve Mosher said:
    Isnt it interesting that we see parallel types of “predictions” from both extreme camps.
    If A , then maybe we might see disaster.

    The idea of Paul Hudson, BBC weather forecaster, as an climate extremist in the mould of Peter Gleick, Bob Ward, Joe Romm or Greg Laden is amusing.
    Besides which, we have three different models of future solar activity which all converge and back up what Paul Hudson is saying.

    The difference between our solar models and the models Mosh thinks are “useful” is that his have already been falsified, and ours are being confirmed.

  24. ren says:

    Tchannon says
    I’d forgotten about that particular radiation belt so yes it would make sense if this messes with satellite instruments.
    Look at your map. http://daedalearth.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/image-722.jpg?w=550&h=343
    In the north, there is usually lock the Bering Strait and the Iceland (correct me if I’m wrong). There is cosmic radiation is strongest, especially when solar activity will begin to fall, as in the previous winter. This can be very important for predictions.

  25. ren says:

    Hurricane Humberto wrecked by the cold Atlantic.
    http://www.sat24.com/world.aspx?region=am

  26. ren says:

    The upper part of the hurricane was cut by the cold jet stream.
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z200anim.shtml

  27. Stephen Richards says:

    Steven Mosher says:

    September 13, 2013 at 6:03 pm

    Your not get any better Steven. [snip]

    [Mod note] Let’s try and keep to the high ground shall we?

  28. ren says:

    The behavior of cosmic rays is another very high and lower latitudes. At higher latitudes of operation may be more concentrated.
    http://neutronm.bartol.udel.edu/catch/sse3.html

  29. michael hart says:

    Thanks for the links, Paul. Plenty to think about there.

  30. Paul Vaughan says:

    New Animations

    There’s so much attention focused on anomalies in the solar/climate discussion that sometimes newcomers forget that ENSO is just a small thing that rides on a big thing called the terrestrial year.

    In the past I shared a bunch of annnual cycle climatology map animations. The files were large and the format was “.apng”, which doesn’t run on all browsers. To ease reach to a wider audience, I’ve slimmed the images down to “.gif” and piled groups of variables into each animation (instead of just 1).

    Ocean & atmosphere are coupled, as are temperature, mass, & velocity. The aim is to visually aid awareness of multivariately coupled circulatory topology that pulses spatially as well as temporally with the solar cycle, having inescapable implications that are apparently rather unintuitive for mainstreamers who don’t adequately appreciate the role of wind in ocean evaporation, currents, welling, ice-transport, & mixing more generally.

    3 new climate animations (posted today):

    1. sun, temperature, wind, & ozone
    climatology attractor (average annual cycle) map animation: equator-pole insolation & temperatue gradients, semiannual midlatitude westerly winds = westerlies = mean jet streams, & ozone

    2. water = hydrology
    climatology attractor (average annual cycle) map animation: multivariate hydrology in the context of sunlight, temperature, pressure, wind, & welling

    3. cloud cover
    climatology attractor (average annual cycle) map animation: low, mid level, high, & total cloud cover

    Other animations posted during the past week:

    4. sun, temperature, & wind
    climatology attractor (average annual cycle) map animation: visualizing & understanding terrestrial 200hPa semiannual midlatitude westerly winds = mean terrestrial jet streams

    5. pressure, wind, waves, & gyres
    climatology attractor (average annual cycle) map animation: visualizing & understanding coherence of terrestrial surface pressure, wind, waves, & currents (ocean gyres)

    Credits:
    a) The ocean significant wave height (SWH) climatology attractor (average annual cycle) map animation was assembled using Australian Department of Defence images developed from data provided by the GlobWave Project
    b) All other climatology attractor (average annual cycle) map animations have been assembled using JRA-25 Atlas images. JRA-25 long-term reanalysis is a collaboration of Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) & Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI).

    These new animations are strategic supplements to help everyone understand solar Schwabe modulation of annually cycling terrestrial insolation (heat engine) gradients. I’m drafting a concise extension of the STC101 article to address ozone & hurricanes.

    NB: Solar-terrestrial-climate attractor observations are robust against:

    1) switching summary methods.
    2) changing the resolution of sunspot data (e.g. from monthly to annual).
    3) substituting daily atmospheric angular momentum data for daily length of day data.
    4) substituting the famously “ironed flat” TSI reconstruction for sunspot numbers.
    5) converting sunspot numbers to simple “low” (-1) & “high” (+1) values.
    (The proposed comparatively tiny adjustments to sunspot numbers also have no effect.)

    #5 is the clincher that underscores the physical importance of frequency shift.

    Best Regards

  31. ren says:

    Tchannon pay attention to what is happening on the Sun. From September 4th cosmic radiation has increased by almost 5%. That’s a lot.

  32. An excellent set of animations from Paul.

    I’m sure that proper analysis would support my New Climate Model.

    In particular the animation of seasonal jet stream movements run at speed shows the climate system ‘breathing’ each year by adjusting the circulation system in response to changes in the surface distribution of insolation as the Earth moves around the sun.

    It just needs miniscule adjustments to that breathing process to neutralise any forcing elements other than more gravity more mass or more ToA insolation.

    Any forcing elements other than ocean oscillations and solar variability affecting ozone quantities become indiscernible due to the size of the oceanic and solar influences.

  33. Brian H says:

    Time to disinter some of those ’70s schemes for geosynchronous mylar mega mirrors, I guess!

  34. Paul Vaughan says:

    @ michael hart (September 14, 2013 at 11:23 pm)

    I see 5 substantial refinements that can be made to Soon & Legates (2013). Were I sitting comfortably in a cushy office at an academic institution blessed with adequate resources, I could probably complete the investigation in a few months. Operating on the Pareto Principle as I currently do with only an old computer and at most a few free hours every day, it’s always difficult to predict how long things will take. I’ve explored many solar/climate avenues during the past 5.5 years. None has had so few road blocks as the current one. The only obstacles on this road are time, resources, & politics. If you read carefully, you’ll find a few other money quotes in Soon & Legates (2013). Thanks for your comments.

  35. Paul Vaughan says:

    @ Stephen Wilde (September 15, 2013 at 7:43 am) wrote: “Any forcing elements other than ocean oscillations and solar variability affecting ozone quantities become indiscernible due to the size of the oceanic and solar influences.”

    The most egregious narrative out there is the standard one claiming the “ocean oscillations” are independent of solar activity. This assertion is strictly unphysical and strictly at odds with the multivariate observational record.

    Judy Curry in particular needs a very serious wake up call as her communications strategy (which I suspect is vetted by incompetent professionals) is strictly inconsistent with observations. (This is the polite way of putting it. I’m restraining myself from publicly saying what I really think; Tamino has been less generous.)

  36. Fabulous work Paul .. Great teaching tools. I found that l wanted to stop the animation and step through the months at my brains pace

    I especially enjoyed the global MSLP seasonal animation. Watching the North Pacific change pressure seasonally is quite a dramatic feature lthought.

    Well done
    Do you have these on your web page?
    Link?

  37. tallbloke says:

    Weathercycles: I’m going to post them on individual pages here at the talkshop with an overview page linking to each one. That way people with lower bandwidth connections will be able to refer to them more easily. My thanks also to Paul for sharing his work with us.

  38. oldbrew says:

    ‘historical weather records give a good indication of the type of weather the UK could experience’

    Good rant from Piers Corbyn here about the Grantham Institute and their inflated claims of UK warming since the 1950s.

    http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=583&c=5

  39. Stratospheric Polar Vortex as a Possible Reason for Temporal Variations of Solar Activity and Galactic Cosmic Ray Effects on the Lower Atmosphere Circulation
    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0273117713005474
    [mod: see later comment by “ren” to a PDF of the paper –Tim]

  40. ren says:

    Lord Beaverbrook says:
    Stratospheric Polar Vortex as a Possible Reason for Temporal Variations of Solar Activity and Galactic Cosmic Ray Effects on the Lower Atmosphere Circulation.
    This is very important because such anomalies are waiting in the winter, and previous forecasts to avoid panic. From my observations this year show that any prolonged increase in cosmic rays, or low solar activity, after about two weeks, leading to blockages in the stratosphere. With the current activity I expect the next block at the end of September.
    The chart below shows that we had to deal with this past winter.

    [mod long link housekeeping: link to Oulu cosmic ray monitor image –Tim]

  41. ren says:

    Link:

    Click to access Veretenenko_%20et_all_Geocosmos2012proceedings.pdf

    [mod: ren provides a link to a PDF of the paper mentioned earlier by Lord B. –Tim]

  42. tchannon says:

    expletive! The abstract and damn Science Direct hides something notable.

    Introduction is talking about circulation, weather fronts, regions and realtionship to GCR (cosmic rays)

    “It was also detected [Veretenenko and Ogurtsov, 2012] that the evolution of the meridional circulation
    is characterized by a roughly 60-year periodicity which, in turn, influences the sign of SA/GCR effects on
    troposphere pressure. Indeed, the reversals of the correlations between sea-level pressure at high latitudes and sunspot numbers occurred in the 1890s, the early 1920s, 1950s and the early 1980s and coincided well with the changes in the evolution of the C-type meridional circulation.”

    So they are talking about phase reversal which is the kind of thing which gets hidden by inappropriate signal processing. (such as average)

    Fascinating.

    Others have picked this up
    http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk/2013/09/new-paper-relates-natural-60-year.html

    Adding context and new content here, this surprising text from (UN) FAO, is about fish

    The chapter preamble explains the origin of the type of circulation
    “George Vangengeim, the founder of ACI, is a well-known Russian climatologist. The Vangengeim-Girs classification is the basis of the modern Russian climatological school of thought. According to this system, all observable variation in atmospheric circulation is classified into three basic types by direction of the air mass transfer: Meridional (C); Western (W), and Eastern (E). Each of the above-mentioned forms is calculated from the daily atmospheric pressure charts over northern Atlantic-Eurasian region. General direction of the transfer of cyclonic and anticylonic air masses is known to depend on the distribution of atmospheric pressure over the Atlantic-Eurasian region (the atmosphere topography).”

    http://www.fao.org/docrep/005/y2787e/y2787e03.htm

    All the subject items in PDF are here
    ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/005/y2787e/

  43. ren says:

    The temperature gradients at the vortex edges increase with height in the stratosphere starting from the level 150 hPa, their maximum being observed at the levels 50-10 hPa (20-30 km). In the troposphere temperature gradients are maximal near surface corresponding to Arctic fronts separating the Arctic air from warmer air of middle latitudes. Thus, the vortex is most pronounced at the 50-30 hPa levels where the minimum of stratospheric temperatures and the maximum of temperature gradients at its edges are observed. We can see that the highest values of ion production rate due to GCR are observed in the lower part of the vortex (10-15 km) where temperature gradients start increasing. On the other hand, the 11-year modulation of GCR fluxes is strongest at the heights 20-25 km [Bazilevskaya et al., 2008] where the vortex is most pronounced.

    Let’s see what’s going on now for 50 hPa.
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp50anim.shtml

    [mod: format added –Tim]

  44. Ren,

    You believe that we will get a blocking before the end of the month, what will be the influence of the QBO, are we in westerly mode now?
    Others in the media have mentioned the possibility of an Indian summer at the end of the month, this would need the jet stream to be to the north of us surely, is this possible blocking being overlooked by the media weather forecasters?

  45. ren says:

    Just look at the satellite. You can see that the lock is near.
    http://www.sat24.com/world.aspx

  46. ren says:

    Lock will be most noticeable in the winter when speed whirl .

  47. ren says:

    Tchannon, Lord Beaverbrook thank you for your help.
    You can draw a very important conclusion for the winter, when the polar vortex velocity is very high, even a small increase in temperature in the stratosphere caused by the ionization of the atmosphere, it can cause a lock and polar vortex. This is evidenced by the August blockade of the South.
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/aao_index.html
      In summer, the effect is difficult to observe the temperature change because it is small compared with the effect of solar UV.

  48. ‘Recent studies have suggested that El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may have a considerable impact on Northern Hemisphere wintertime stratospheric conditions. Notably, during El Niño the stratosphere is warmer than during ENSO‐neutral winters, and the polar vortex is weaker. Opposite ‐
    signed anomalies have been reported during La Niña, but are considerably smaller in amplitude than during El Niño. This has led to the perception that El Niño is able to substantially affect stratospheric conditions, but La Niña is of secondary importance. Here we revisit this issue, but focus on the extreme events that couple the troposphere to the stratosphere: major, mid winter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs). We examine 53 years of reanalysis data and find, as expected, that SSWs are nearly twice as frequent during ENSO winters as during non ENSO
    winters. Surprisingly, however, we also find that SSWs occur with equal probability during El Niño and La Niña winters. These findings corroborate the impact of ENSO on stratospheric variability, and highlight that both phases of ENSO are important in enhancing stratosphere‐troposphere
    dynamical coupling via an increased frequency of SSWs.’

    Click to access butler+polvani-GRL-2011.pdf

    From the discussion section:

    ‘For instance, we find a higher frequency of SSWs during the easterly phase of the QBO, irrespective of ENSO phase (not shown). Also, we note that four out of five double warmings
    occur when the wintertime ‐ mean QBO at 50 hPa is in its easterly phase. It is conceivable that the solar cycle, surface boundary conditions, or other factors may also impact the frequency of SSWs.

    According to this paper all the indices are pointing to a quiet winter in relation to SSW’s. That is unless ENSO decides to do something un-predicted.

    If ENSO neutral and QBO in westerly mode would a blocking this month idicate a growing influence of NAO turning negative overriding influences from Southern oceans?

    Not being scientifically employed myself, these are the area’s of knowledge that keep me enthralled with climate.

  49. ren says:

    Lord Beaverbrook it can confirm that the solar activity is able to change very quickly starting conditions and decide on climate change over long periods of time. Earth is just part of the galaxy, as we part of nature.
    ‘m Not a scientist. Yours.

  50. ren says:

    This article perfectly shows the temperature dependence of the stratosphere from solar activity, which, as you can see is the opposite.
    http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2013/09/persistent-stratospheric-warming.html

  51. “meaning there may be a negative correlation between daily sunspot numbers and stratospheric temperatures. – See more at: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.co.uk/2013/09/persistent-stratospheric-warming.html#sthash.em3ndrwd.dpuf

    which is something I have been suggesting for several years.

    To achieve more meridional jets when the sun is quiet and more zonal jets when the sun is active must involve reversing the generally accepted sign of the solar thermal effect on the stratosphere.

    An active sun must reduce ozone overall especially towards the poles resulting in a polar vortex that is higher in the vertical plane and smaller in the horizontal plane which draws the climate zones poleward.

    That explains both the colder stratosphere and reduced ozone during the late 20th century without invoking CO2 or CFCs at all.

  52. Paul Vaughan says:

    weathercycles (September 15, 2013 at 11:59 am) wrote: “I found that l wanted to stop the animation and step through the months at my brains pace
    I especially enjoyed the global MSLP seasonal animation. Watching the North Pacific change pressure seasonally is quite a dramatic feature lthought.”

    My thanks again to Erl Happ for stimulating better awareness of terrestrial circulatory topology and for drawing attention to JRA-25 Atlas.

    To view at your own pace, set up an empty folder, drag 12 images (1 for each month) to it, and open in an image viewer that loops back to the first folder-image after arriving at the last (e.g. Windows Picture & Fax Viewer).

    To get direct image links from JRA-25 Atlas, just right click any image and from the drop-down menu choose “copy image URL”.

    e.g.

    Then change JAN to FEB, MAR, APR, MAY, JUN, JUL, AUG, SEP, OCT, NOV, & DEC.

    Alternatively, open the images in browser tabs & Ctrl-Tab & Ctrl-Shift-Tab or Ctrl-PageDown & Ctrl-PageUp through the sequence, moving backward & forward at your own pace.

    Any clarification needed on these crude instructions? Just ask.

    Cheers

  53. tchannon says:

    PDF of JMA SST images

    Click to access jst-sst-seq.pdf

    1. January has been duplicated and placed as image 13 so that Dec/Jan change can seen.

    2. Adjust your PDF viewing software to whatever displays well, I can’t do that for you. Hint: maybe you PDF software can be told to show one page at a time, not continuous, then you get an overlay AB on moving. Or book or facing.

    Scripted sequence creation on file, then Imagemagick convert to pdf

  54. ren says:

    The surface temperature also increased, certainly not due to ozone.
    http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

  55. GEOS-5 Analyses and Forecasts of the Major Stratospheric Sudden Warming of January 2013
    http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/researchhighlights/SSW/

  56. ren says:
    September 18, 2013 at 7:13 am
    The surface temperature also increased

    Higher moisture content in the air, lots of snow events?

  57. Thanks Paul for the suggestions for viewing
    and thanks tim C for putting the global mean sea level pressure seasonal shifts on PDF.. Thanks

    BTW…T…C You have labelled your file name as SST . The maps are not sea surface temperature but mean sea level surface pressure ( mslp. a better naming nomenclature)

  58. tchannon says:

    NASA page mentions radiosonde then reveals using a brand new maths model to produce model output and shows computer model generated images based on satellite data, which is not shown.

    So far as I can see they are operating constant pressure but dealing in temperature change. Q: so what was altitude / thickness doing?

    What I am getting at here is the incomplete information, can’t figure out what they are trying to show.

    Seems to me there is magical appearance of a pattern, no explanation of why, as though it happened spontaneously, with no cause. “caused by the propagation and evolution of planetary scale wave motions in the troposphere and stratosphere.” Which is no answer. If they really knew they could forecast them.

    Aside:
    Superb collection of historic photos
    http://radiosondemuseum.org/photographs/

    The use of twin balloons is an old trick going back to before 1910, predating radio so it was necessary to recover recording apparatus, hence twin balloons, two for ascent, one bursts, descent via one balloon.

    Couple of designs of German radiosonde from WWII with detailed photos
    http://fykse.dnsalias.com/ww2/RADIOSONDE/
    http://www.laud.no/ww2/balloon/index.htm

    Some degree of driving force for radiosonde was army gunnery, perhaps naval.

    Why not, be crazy, some early images
    http://www.northstargallery.com/aerialphotography/History%20Aerial%20Photography/history.htm