Benny Peiser: Roundup of Reaction to IPCC AR5 and other Global Warming Alarmism

Posted: September 30, 2013 by tallbloke in Accountability, alarmism, Analysis, government, Politics, propaganda

From Benny Peiser at the GWPF:

owen-patersonOwen Paterson, Britain’s secretary of state for environment, food and rural affairs, says effects of global warming could be beneficial. The cabinet minister responsible for fighting the effects of climate change claimed there would be advantages to an increase in temperature predicted by the United Nations including fewer people dying of cold in winter and the growth of certain crops further north. Paterson has long been suspected of being a climate change sceptic. He has previously called for a reduction in the subsidies given to wind farms and other green energy initiatives. Rajeev Syal, The Guardian, 30 September 2013

People get very emotional about this subject and I think we should just accept that the climate has been changing for centuries. I think the relief of this latest IPCC report is that it shows a really quite modest increase, half of which has already happened. They are talking one to two and a half degrees. Remember that for humans, the biggest cause of death is cold in winter, far bigger than heat in summer. It would also lead to longer growing seasons and you could extend growing a little further north into some of the colder areas. –UK Environment Minister Owen Patterson, The Guardian, 30 September 2013

For the Swiss Alps 2013 was a good summer. Not since ten years ago have the glaciers lost as little mass as this year. And some seem to be gaining a little weight. The latest research shows: Glaciers can still grow back. “We have been doubting whether this is even possible at all. Now we know: It is possible,” says the glaciologist Andreas Bauder. –Fabienne Riklin, Schweiz am Sonntag, 29 September 2013 

THE global warming doomsday cult is coming to an end. Belief that the world is doomed, unless we replace coal and gas by renewables costing two or three times as much, is already driving up home energy bills and making manufacturing uncompetitive. But last week both Ed Miliband and a report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) signalled – by what they deliberately didn’t say – that global warming alarmism is no longer politically or scientifically sustainable. –Peter Lilley, City A.M. 30 September 2013

The real story of the IPCC’s summary for policy makers is not the upgrading of scientific confidence from 90% to 95% – whatever that really means – but the attempt at burying the ‘pause.’ It won’t matter in the long run because the IPCC hierarchy, just like many climate scientists, know that if the ‘pause’ continues for a few more years then everything will change. Despite what the IPCC said at the end of a week-long process to distil the science and communicate it simply, the ‘pause’ is still the biggest problem in climate science. Overall, for a press conference about the science of climate change, those scientists answering the questions behaved like politicians, and slippery ones at that. — David Whitehouse, The Global Warming Policy Foundation, 27 September 2013

Climate scientists at the Met Office Hadley Centre will unveil the first decadal climate prediction model in a paper published on 10 August 2007 in the journal Science. The paper includes the Met Office’s prediction for annual global temperature to 2014. Over the 10-year period as a whole, climate continues to warm and 2014 is likely to be 0.3 °C warmer than 2004. At least half of the years after 2009 are predicted to exceed the warmest year currently on record. —Met Office, 10 August 2007

Vahrenholt and Lüning reserve their major criticisms for the debasement of the science. The West can clearly cite the scientific method as among its most obvious triumphs. Yet this painstakingly-won advantage is now being sacrificed, they contend, in the interests of activists, egos, political necessity and headlines. In short, the science has been corrupted in the interests of political expediency. We can take some comfort from this. Truth  has a way of winning, however painfully. Patently, Vahrenholt and Lüning have laid out what at the very minimum must be a serious case for calling into question the IPPC orthodoxy. — Thomas Cussans, Bishop Hill, 30 September 2013

1) British Environment Minister: Global Warming May Be Good For The World – The Guardian, 30 September 2013

2) The First Alpine Glaciers Are Growing Again – Schweiz am Sonntag, 29 September 2013 

3) Peter Lilley: The End Is Near For Global Warming Doomsday Cult – City A.M. 30 September 2013

4) David Whitehouse: Don’t Mention The ‘Pause’ – The Global Warming Policy Foundation, 27 September 2013

5) Book Review: The Neglected Sun – Bishop Hill, 30 September 2013

6) And Finally: The 2007 Met Office Forecast For 2014… – Met Office, 10 August 2007

  1. ren says:

    Everything indicates that awaits us cool 30 years, according to the study.
    Our previous study showed that the response of tropospheric pressure to variations of solar activity (SA) and
    galactic cosmic ray (GCR) fluxes reveals a regional structure determined by the positions of the main
    climatic atmospheric fronts, as well as it strongly depends on the epochs of the large-scale circulation
    [Veretenenko and Ogurtsov, 2012]. In the epochs of increasing intensity of the meridional circulation (the
    form C according to Vangengeim-Girs classification [Vangengeim, 1952; Girs, 1974]) an increase of GCR
    fluxes at minima of the 11-year cycle is accompanied by an intensification both of extratropical cyclones at
    Polar fronts of middle latitudes and Arctic anticyclones at high latitudes of the Northern hemisphere, as well
    as by a weakening of the equatorial trough at low latitudes. In the epochs of decreasing meridional
    circulation the troposphere response to SA/GCR variations reveals a similar regional structure, i.e., the
    regions of most pronounced effects are closely related to the climatic atmospheric fronts, but the sign of
    SA/GCR effects in these regions is opposite.
    It was also detected [Veretenenko and Ogurtsov, 2012] that the evolution of the meridional circulation
    is characterized by a roughly 60-year periodicity which, in turn, influences the sign of SA/GCR effects on
    troposphere pressure. Indeed, the reversals of the correlations between sea-level pressure at high latitudes
    and sunspot numbers occurred in the 1890s, the early 1920s, 1950s and the early 1980s and coincided well
    with the changes in the evolution of the C-type meridional circulation. Hence, the aim of this work is to
    study what processes may influence the evolution of the large-scale circulation and, then, the character of
    SA/GCR effects on troposphere pressure.

    Click to access Veretenenko_%20et_all_Geocosmos2012proceedings.pdf

  2. oldbrew says:

    A new target for the IPCC: try and get in the Guinness Book of Records as the originators of the world’s most expensive job creation scheme.

    They just keep banging the same worn-out drum in the face of the facts.
    Worse than useless and tedious to boot.

  3. TLMango says:

    Bob Tisdale has written lately that he believed the PDO had flipped somewhere around 1994. This means the 61 year temp cycle should bottom out in 2024. Also…..I really like Scafetta’s 114 year solar cycle (Scafetta, 2012c). If SC-25 is a repeat of SC-24 with a SSN of ~67 then the 114 year cycle would bottom out at 2020 or later. The pause could end up being longer than 30 years.

  4. Arfur Bryant says:

    Nothing against you, TLMango, but why do people keep referring to ‘it’ as a pause?

    It is a flattening, or a plateau if you like. When it ends, the temperature could go either down or up…

    The term ‘pause’ implies an assumption that global temperature will continue to increase.

    Objectively this is not necessarily so.

  5. oldbrew says:

    Once a ‘pause’ has lasted longer than the thing it’s supposed to be interrupting, it isn’t a pause any more IMO. We must be close to that situation now re global temperature patterns.

    In most branches of science if you predict X and Y happens, you go back to the drawing board. Only the climate crew would claim increased confidence from on-going failure.

  6. tom0mason says:

    I think that manicbeancounter has done a fine job on his blog in outlining the differences between AR4 and AR5 and the most significant radiative forcings.

  7. TLMango says:

    I’m thinking we may be in store for a downturn. It may be a short while, but I think it will happen. If we do get a significant downturn in the near future, it will be interesting to see how the warmists deal with a drastic change in data. Especially after manipulating past data to give us 33 consecutive hottest years ever. Going back and re-re-re-writing history over and over again should eventually get real awkward.
    The saddest thing is the damage they are doing to the credibility of scientific data.

  8. wayne says:

    Owen Paterson, wow!
    A bureaucrat who understands reality and is honest too, how very rare.

  9. edmh says:

    The world does indeed face a dire and truly urgent threat from Climate Change.

    It is just not what the Global Warming Alarmists want to think it is.

    In the context that the last millennium 1000 – 2000 AD has been the coolest of our current benign Holocene interglacial and was a full 1.5 °C lower that the earlier Holocene optimum according to ice core records. So a little global warming could be very welcome.

    But since the year 2000 a further significant change has been occurring: the UKMO official Central England Temperature CET record has shown an annual decline of ~ -1.0°C and a winter (DJF) decline of ~ -1.5°C. These declines are as much or even more than the total CET gains in the period 1850 – 2000.

    However, this year 2013, there has been a more extreme escalation of the temperature decline as shown in the UKMO official Central England Temperature CET record. In the first half of 2013, UK Met Office CET temperatures were a full 1.89°C lower than the monthly averages of the previous 12 years.

    That is pretty significant and it really matters. That marked decline has lead to significant crop failures and serious loss of agricultural productivity. The effect has been seen throughout the Northern hemisphere and cooling effects are also clear in the Southern hemisphere.

    Assessing the sunspot records we seem to be rapidly heading for a Dalton minimum event (at best) in the next few decades. This will destroy agricultural productivity throughout the world.

    But Global Warming advocates only ever propose solutions for the control of Global Warming, (overheating), by reducing Man-made CO2 emissions. Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming advocates fail to explain how reduction of man-made atmospheric CO2 can ever can help to control Climate Change towards a cooling world.

    Having made so many dire predictions of impending climate catastrophes from overheating, the advocates of Global Warming / Climate Change fail to accept that a climate change towards a cooler climate is more likely to lead to more intense adverse weather. There is good reason to expect this, simply because the energy differential between the poles and the tropics is bound to be greater and that in itself leads to less stable atmospheric conditions.

    A cooling world as the Northern Hemisphere seen in the years since 2000 leads to much more dire consequences for the biosphere and for mankind than any realistic amount of warming that could ever arise from future man-made CO2 emissions.

    National policy makers and the United Nations are neither recognizing nor are they preparing for this potentially disastrous eventuality.

  10. tallbloke says:

    edmh: Welcome. Good points well made. A collapse in agricultural productivity is a worrying prospect indeed. But farmers do know how to plant for cooler conditions, so once the message is clear, we should be able to cope ok.