## R.J. Salvador: Planetary model of 1000 yrs Solar Variation Plus 100yr Prediction

Posted: September 8, 2013 by tallbloke in Analysis, Cycles, data, Electro-magnetism, Forecasting, Gravity, Natural Variation, Solar physics, solar system dynamics

Latest output from R.J. Salvador’s solar variation model, now up to a 91% correlation with the sunspot record since 1749.

My thanks to R.J. Salvador for this guest posting of his solar variation model based on planetary periods. It’s forecast is in good agreement with that made by Tim Channon back in Feb 2011 using a different technique and different data (Judith Lean’s TSI reconstruction). R.J.’s model is available to interested parties known to the talkshop, make a request in comments for a copy (7meg .xls). R.J. asked me to include Sparks plots of Uranus orientation to the Sun which is included into the model as the 1/4 period of its orbit. Click for full size.

A Mathematical Model of the Sunspot Cycle for the past 1000 Years

Summary

Using many features of Ian Wilson’s Tidal Torque theory, a mathematical model of the sunspot cycle has been created that reproduces changing sunspot cycle lengths and has an 85% correlation to the sunspot numbers from 1749 to 2013. The model makes a reasonable representation of the sunspot cycle for the past 1000 years, placing all the solar minimums in their time periods. More importantly, I believe the model can be used to forecast future solar cycles out quantitatively for 30 years and directionally for 100 years.  The forecast is for a solar minimum and quiet sun for the next 30 to 100 years. The model is a slowly changing chaotic system with patterns that are never exactly the same, much like a model of the weather. Inferences as to the causes of the sunspot cycle patterns can be made by looking at the models terms and relating them to aspects of the Tidal Torque theory and possibly Jovian magnetic field interactions.

The Model

The Tidal Torque theory proposed by Ian Wilson provides a system of interrelated consistent frequencies and now I believe a unique set within a narrow error range.

This model is simply four interacting waves but they are modulated to create an infinite possibility for sunspot formation.

## Oldbrew and Tallbloke: Why Phi? Part 2 – The Gas Giant Planets

Posted: September 6, 2013 by tallbloke in Analysis, Cycles, data, Phi, solar system dynamics

This is the second post in a series attempting to unlock the door to the secret life of our solar system. In part one we presented some observations demonstrating a selection of the relationships between the motion of the planets, cyclic climatic and solar periods found in palaeo-proxy records, and ratios in the Fibonacci series, including many which are very close to the ‘Golden Section’ or phi. In this post we’ll take a closer look at the ‘gas giant’ Jovian planets; Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune.

## The Wheels are falling off the Windfarming Bandwagon

Posted: September 5, 2013 by tallbloke in Accountability, FOI, Incompetence, Legal, Robber Barons, wind

Collapsed wind turbine at Loughderry windfarm

Around four months ago a wind turbine collapsed at Loughderry windfarm in Donegal, Ireland. The owners and the designers, Vestas have been silent about the cause, despite repeated calls from the local community for re-assurances and explanation. The local council told the owners their planning permission did not entitle them to erect a new turbine. Then someone decided that they should ignore the law and erect a replacement turbine anyway. The general competence of the outfit was underlined when a wagon carrying part of the new support tower got itself stuck in a ditch near the site. The upshot of that is that the council has served an enforcement notice, prohibiting further work and demanding the removal of the partially built replacement turbine. The windfarm’s owners claim it’s a repair not a rebuild. The photo on the right says otherwise. There’s more bad news for windfarms everywhere too. a new study has revealed that the numbers of birds and bats killed by these useless eyesores has been deliberately undercounted by a large factor. Are you paying attention RSPB ? Read on for more.

## Svensmark’s cosmic ray theory of clouds and global warming looks to be confirmed

Posted: September 4, 2013 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics

Great news: More confirmation of Svensmark’s theory

Note: Between flaccid climate sensitivity, ENSO driving “the pause”, and now this, it looks like the upcoming IPCC AR5 report will be obsolete the day it is released.

From a Technical University of Denmark press release comes what looks to be a significant confirmation of Svensmark’s theory of temperature modulation on Earth by cosmic ray interactions. The process is that when there are more cosmic rays, they help create more microscopic cloud nuclei, which in turn form more clouds, which reflect more solar radiation back into space, making Earth cooler than what it normally might be. Conversely, less cosmic rays mean less cloud cover and a warmer planet as indicated here.  The sun’s magnetic field is said to deflect cosmic rays when its solar magnetic dynamo is more active, and right around the last solar max, we were at an 8000 year high, suggesting more deflected cosmic rays…

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## Why is the BBC Banging the War Drum on Syria? Just Look Who Runs It

Posted: September 4, 2013 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics

The BBC flagship news programmes, news channel, online news service and radio news outlets have spent several days in constant hysteria about the probability of a second vote on Syria, after parliament rejected military intervention last week.  Why is the BBC obsessively attempting to answer a question only they are asking?  A look at the interests and characters running the organisation help explain their seemingly rabid hunger for war.

Who Runs the BBC?

The BBC Trust is responsible for granting licenses to all BBC outlets and stations, managing value for money on license fee payments and ‘the direction of BBC editorial and creative output’.  The Trust consists of 12 Trustees and is headed by Lord Patten.

Lord Chris Patten is a conservative peer and former governor of Hong Kong; he also happens to have 13 others jobs besides chief of the BBC.  These include an £80,000 year role…

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## World Map of Fuel Price – Europe Uncompetitive

Posted: September 4, 2013 by tallbloke in Analysis, Dataset, Energy, government, Robber Barons

I came across this on twitter yesterday and thought it was a bit of an eye opener. The legend doesn’t tell us at what date the map was constructed or what the unit is, but at current UK prices of around £1.47/litre for super-unleaded, if the unit is U.S. gallons and the exchange rate between the pound and dollar is \$1.52, the price seems about right.

Click for full size image

## Doug Proctor: Dowsing and Divining the Direction of Debate

Posted: September 4, 2013 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics

Our good friend Doug Proctor has left a thoughtful and provocative essay on the suggestions page, which I think worthy of debate. Doug is a geologist by profession, and like most geologists, he is keenly aware of how much we don’t know, and has developed a keen eye for plausibility. His previous posts at the Talkshop reveal a breadth and depth of understanding most of us aspire to, so I’m giving him the floor. Just to back him up on the introductory section of his essay, my dad, a lifelong water engineer and senior member of the institute of civil engineers, used to employ a dowser when the corporation maps let him down on locating water mains and underground streams. He rated him with a 90% success rate. He told me the dowser he employed on an occasional basis could not only locate the line of travel, but also the depth, from the strength of secondary waves parallel to the watercourse. Over to Doug.

I am a dowser, you know, the type who can locate water pipes, underground streams etc. with a rod or something. It actually has some scientific merit, the human body being sensitive to movement through weak electrical fields. There is an unconscious, but programmable muscle sensitivity to the change in electrical field: by focusing on it, somehow you can cause an unconscious, unnoticeable muscle movement. What you do with a pendulum is concentrate on making the pendulum rotate clock-wise or otherwide, and, lo and behold, it will. Then you focus on “asking” this response when a certain feature is noted, i.e. you are crossing the electric field of a MOVING water body or standing metal pipe.

## Today’s Scores From The Arctic – Russian Coastguard 1 Greenpeace 0

Posted: September 3, 2013 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics

T-rouble up north as Greenpeace gets booted out of Russian waters.

Greenpeace have just made a massive miscalculation of who to mess with in the Arctic, in this case Russia.

The story goes like this Greenpeace wanted to go the Northern Sea Route in Russia’s Arctic and protest, for that read, interrupt the search for oil and gas in the Arctic, the Arctic is reckoned to have 13% of the worlds undiscovered oil reserves and around 31% of the worlds undiscovered natural gas reserves.

Entry to the Northern Sea Route is by permit only, Greenpeace applied 3 times, and 3 times the Russians rejected the application, so the nobly motivated watermelons at Greenpeace decided they would ignore the lack of permit and go anyway.

A major miscalculation by Greenpeace, the old USSR might be gone, but the new Russia led by Comrade Putin is little changed from the USSR, now instead of the KGB, there are the incredibly rich oligarchs and…

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## 50:1 Project Video Now Online – The Cost Benefit Analysis Stern Won’t Discuss

Posted: September 2, 2013 by tallbloke in Analysis, Forecasting, Philosophy, Politics, Uncertainty, weather
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Talkshop contributor and planetary forecaster Richard Holle alerts us to the newly posted 50:1 Project video, which is now online at youtube. The full length interviews are at the 50:1 Project website too. Richard says:

http://topher.com.au/50-to-1-video-project/ Best \$500 I have spent in the war for truth. it is now up on line since last night US time.

## Joe Romm: Arctic Recovery or Death Spiral “Care to make a wager on that?”

Posted: September 2, 2013 by tallbloke in alarmism, Cycles, general circulation, humour, sea ice

Talkshop commenter ‘Caleb’ has alerted me to an unusual event; Joe Romm approved one of my comments on his blog at Think Progress. Intrigued, I went to see, and found that not only had Joe approved my comment, but replied to it with the offer of some free money. I’ll gladly take up the offer of a wager Joe, subject to the agreement of terms. Since Joe has been kind enough to offer the wager, I’ll let him have first shot at defining what he means by “the last throes of the death spiral.” So far as the size of the wager is concerned, I’m not a rich man, so the limit for me is \$3000. How about it Joe?

Tong Jian and Pang Qing perform the ‘Death Spiral’ at the 2010 Ice Skating Championship

## Scientists baffled to discover that Venus’ spin is slowing down

Posted: September 2, 2013 by tallbloke in Astronomy, Astrophysics, atmosphere, Cycles, Electro-magnetism, Measurement, Solar physics, solar system dynamics, Tides, wind

Pioneer photo of Venus in the UV

More ‘baffled scientists’. Good fun isn’t it? From MNN:

Scientists mapping Venus’s surface with the European Space Agency’s Venus Express orbiter recently received a shock when features on the planet’s surface appeared to have moved up to 12.4 miles from where they were expected to be, reports National Geographic.

The measurements, if correct, would seem to indicate that Venus’ rotation has slowed by 6.5 minutes — a dramatic decrease on a planetary level — compared to when it was last measured just 16 years ago.

That last measurement was taken during NASA’s Magellan mission in the 1990s, when a single rotation of Venus was calculated to take 243.015 Earth days. Magellan used the passing speed of surface features on the planet to make its calculation, and scientists have long held that measurement as the standard.

“When the two maps did not align, I first thought there was a mistake in my calculations, as Magellan measured the value [of Venus’s spin] very accurately,” said planetary scientist Nils Müller. “But we have checked every possible error we could think of.”

This leaves a rather large question: What could possibly be causing a planet’s spin to decelerate so rapidly? Since Venus is also Earth’s closest neighbor, should we be worried?

Interestingly, the Earth’s rotation is also slowing down, but scientists attribute this to tidal acceleration, frictional “drag” caused by the Moon’s gravitational pull. This explanation cannot apply to Venus’ slowing spin, however, because Venus has no moon of its own.

Some scientists have speculated that Venus’ thick atmosphere and high-speed winds could be to blame. The planet’s murky carbon dioxide-rich atmosphere gives it a surface pressure 90 times that of Earth’s. This fact, combined with the hurricane-like speeds of the winds around the planet, could possibly generate enough friction to slow down Venus’ rotation.

Other scientists are skeptical. While a planet’s atmosphere has been proven to effect its rotation before, these effects are minimal compared to the degree of slowing that has been witnessed for Venus.

“It is difficult to find a mechanism that will cause the average rotation rate to change this much in only 16 years,” said Venus Express project scientist Håkan Svedhem. “The origin of this could lay in the solar cycle or in long-term weather patterns that modify the atmospheric dynamics. But this puzzle is not yet solved.”

Venus’ slowing spin isn’t the only peculiar thing about its rotation. Venus is unique in our solar system for being the only planet that spins clockwise; all the other planets spin counter-clockwise. This effect, called “retrograde” rotation, is another mystery about Venus that has yet to be adequately solved. Venus’ rotation is also by far the slowest in the solar system, which makes the rapid deceleration of its spin especially curious. So far, though, no theory exists that links these other peculiar facts to the planet’s decelerating spin.

Whatever is causing Venus’ pirouette to dawdle, scientists will need to adjust their measurements

## Oldbrew and Tallbloke: Why Phi? – Part 1

Posted: September 1, 2013 by tallbloke in Cycles, data, Phi, solar system dynamics
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This post lays the groundwork for a series we will publish over the coming weeks and months. It consists of some of the observations gathered since February when I published my discovery that the Fibonacci series and the Golden Ratio – Phi connect the planetary orbits, the synodic conjunction periods they form with their neighbours, solar cycle periods and cycles found in terrestrial climatic proxy time series. Stuart has done the bulk of the calculator heating work here, with interjected observations, conversations and deliberations with myself.