Cyclones, typhoons and cherry-picking

Posted: November 12, 2013 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics

Topical Tropical Typhoon info.

The IPCC Report

Since Typhoon Haiyan is in the news, it seems timely to look at what the IPCC AR5 WG1 report says on this subject. The word “typhoon” is used to describe strong cyclones in the West Pacific – apparently it is just the Chinese for “big wind”.

The key graph plotting the numbers of cyclones and typhoons is Figure 2.34:

It is quite clear from this graph that there has been no increase. The IPCC says so:

The Executive Summary at the start of Chapter 2 says

“Confidence remains low for long-term (centennial) changes in tropical cyclone activity”

and page 2-60 says

“Current datasets indicate no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century”.

In the Summary for Policymakers, the IPCC says that there has been an increase in intense tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic since 1970. Looking at the above graphs, this seems to be…

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Comments
  1. Joe Lalonde says:

    TB,

    They are just starting to come to terms with water displacement and added weight which would increase levels of tides in front of the storms.

    They still believe the power is taken from the ocean when in fact, the wind speeds are greater at higher elevations due to velocity differences in levels and latitudes.

  2. tchannon says:

    IPCC authors are at it again.

    America will be the most outlandish, out-of-date place on the planet with no recent data.

    Also note the admission of crude filtering but no mention of how the end of dataset is handled.

  3. Roger Andrews says:

    We all know that the CAGW movement boasts more than its fair share of kooks, but the fact that the editors of the Washington Post saw fit to publish this nasty and ignorant rant scares the hell out of me.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/on-faith/wp/2013/11/12/super-typhoon-haiyan-suffering-and-the-sin-of-climate-change-denial/

  4. tallbloke says:

    Obama has decided ‘climate action’ will be his legacy. Actually, someone probably decided that for him.

  5. hunter says:

    tallbloke,
    RE: Mr. Obama’s legacy
    Think of a certain Roman emperor whose military legacy was to wage war on the god of the sea.

  6. oldbrew says:

    Meanwhile in the Atlantic:

    ‘Hurricanes on holiday’
    http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2013/10/26/quiet-hurricane-season/3187621/

    Quote:
    Yet, as of late October, with only a few more weeks left in a season that ends Nov. 30, just two hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic Ocean, the fewest since 1982, according to data from the National Hurricane Center. And for the first time since 1994, there have been no “major” hurricanes (Category 3 or above) anywhere in the Atlantic Ocean.

    “It’s the biggest seasonal forecast bust we’ve ever had,” said Colorado State meteorologist Phil Klotzbach, part of the team of forecasters that first started issuing seasonal hurricane predictions in the early 1980s. “It’s a huge surprise, since all of the forecasts were calling for an active season.”
    [End Quote]

    Forecasting skill for major hurricanes looks close to zero.