Dr Nicola Scafetta has asked for assistance from the talkshop to disseminate a talk he has given at the John Locke Foundation recently. We are very happy to oblige. Video below the break. The John Locke Foundation introduces the video with this text:
Nicola Scafetta is a research scientist at the Active Cavity Radiometer Solar Irradiance Monitor Lab group and an adjunct assistant professor in the physics department at Duke University. His research interests are in theoretical and applied statistics and nonlinear models of complex processes. He has published peer-reviewed papers in journals covering a wide variety of disciplines, including astronomy, biology, climatology, economics, medicine, physics and sociology. In this speech, he discusses “The Sun, the Moon, and the Planets: The Astronomical Origins of Climate Change on Earth.”
This is great stuff, with Nicola launching straight into the heart of the matter from minute number 1. He says right at the beginning that the oscillations in the solar system caused by planetary motion are mirrored by climate changes on Earth. Someting we have discussed a lot here over the last four years.
[update] A PDF of the slides is on this link. (see comments) –Tim /update]
Tallbloke's Talkshop 
Winter 2013/14 will be one of the worst winters in the history of the U.S.. Blockage startosfery continues.
Roger, thank you.
If the slides are not clear in the video, the PDF of the presentation is here
Click to access Scafetta_18.November.2013_JohnLock.pdf
Great to see Dr Scafetta and his excellent study I have two questions for him::
1. There is no reference to the 179Y oscillation identified and successfully predicted by Fairbridge and later by Charvatova, the only correct prediction of the present decline. This oscillation has peaked in the same decade as the 60Y cycle and now both may decline in phase leading to cold possibly for over 170Y ?
2. The Bond cycle 1460Y was dominant through the Holocene and has also matured in the warm phase . Is there a study to determine this oscillation with some precision as it is potentially a third and more intense factor for an extended decline?.
Thanks for any feedback.
Peter
To Peter,
the model I presented does not include all possible cycles, but some of the major one (~9, 10-11, 20, 60, 115, 1000) deducible from the sun-moon system and from the Sun-Jupiter-Saturn system.
These cycles jet most of the climate variability
Other cycles such as the ~88, ~,170, ~210 and so on which can be related by adding Uranus and Neptune cycles need to be carefully added but they are partially discussed in some other publication of mine such as:
Scafetta N., and R. C. Willson, 2013. Planetary harmonics in the historical Hungarian aurora record (1523–1960). Planetary and Space Science 78, 38-44.
Scafetta N., 2012. Multi-scale harmonic model for solar and climate cyclical variation throughout the Holocene based on Jupiter-Saturn tidal frequencies plus the 11-year solar dynamo cycle. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 80, 296-311.
Note. p.23 in the pdf.
Something I recently started wondering is whether this 9 year lunisolar cycle could affect perceived north-south 9 year sunspot asymmetry via terrestrial viewing conditions.
Dear Nicola thanks for the lead to your further studies. What is exercising my mind is the fact that there is the risk of a very long term decline when the mature 1460Y Bond cycle begins its cold phase coincident with or following the other two and I would like to see a study to establish the precise phase of the 1460Y oscillation so that the decline could be forecast. I am assuming there is a particular configuration of the planets associated with the 1460Y oscillation which could then be predicted. Can you suggest where this study might be done?
Thanks for any ideas.
Peter.
Scaffeta is very right with the oscillations and planetary effects in my opinion. But it is in my opinion not whole story. First there as on the Sun are also planetary effects on Earth’s orbit around the Sun, and not small – they make anomalistic years variate whole days in length and also the yearly average distance of Earth from Sun variates thousands of kilometers (which due to exponential relation between distance and insolation makes difference in yearly insolation in order of whole tenth of Watt per square meter and alone can explain significant part of the interannual variability). If anyone is interested I have recently painstakingly compiled 1890-2040 (yes it goes to the future) dataset of refined Solar distance delta and deldot data using NASA-JPL’s Horizons system, a dataset which is containing dating of perihelions and aphelions with second accuracy and with Earth center-Sun center distance data with 10^-14 precission and sigma=2.10^-8 accuracy (~3 kilometers) in AU units – which I personally checked with the author of the Horizons at the JPL to be sure about the accuracy – I need this data to possibly filter out the most likely positioning artifacts from the SORCE TSI and SSI data (but I of course was wondering how is it with length of the year, distances, lunar perturbation etc.) Which brings me to yet other part of the story – there also is property of the solar activity which was discovered recently by the SORCE satellite and that’s the non-phase spectral variability in almost whole visible and parts of the IR and even some UV (If anyone is interested, here: http://tumetuestumefaisdubien1.sweb.cz/SORCE-115-2417nm-TSI-comparison-poster.PNG I’ve made a poster overviewing the solar spectral variability) – I believe it was reported also here (the Ermolli et at 2013 paper – but I note their results are likely burdened with multiple problems and it doesn’t seem to be so simple with deltaSSI/delta TSI contribution of different spectral regions as they depict because there is likely considerably different variability in descending phase of solar cycle than in ascending, so their extrapolation to whole cycle and further up to IR beyond SIM range is likely not too valid) – rendering most probably all assumptions for solar spectrum variability using planckian distribution blackbody models obsolete and so also the climate assumptions with TSI more or less obsolete too, because the surface solar spectrum variability is due to selective atmospheric attenuation considerably spectrally dependent, not speaking that vast majority of the spectrum reaching surface is absorbed by the ocean and the water penetration spectrum is also very spectrally dependent (see graph I made using reference spectrum and water alpha data here: http://tumetuestumefaisdubien1.sweb.cz/OCEAN-PENETRATION-BYSOLAR-SPECTRUM.png). Which brings me back to Earth and yet another part of the story and that is the uneven distribution of the land and ocean (- with very different reflectivities-albedo, different transparencies for solar spectrum and internal reflectivities for the surface ~260-330K IR spectral region and therefore absorbtion/emission densities resulting in different surface temperatures and therefore different radiative heat dissipation rates, which is underlined by the fact that water also has considerably higher heat capacity – warms less absorbing more heat much deeper – than landmass solids and unlike them considerably evaporates making whole bunch of consequent effects in the atmosphere, not speaking about tide which helps the conveyor currents circulation run and transport the immense amounts of heat and bringing us all the way back to celestial influences) They’re uneven over the Earth surface, especially the hemispeheric and latitudinal distribution is quite uneven, resulting in considerable differences in the solar irradiance absorbtion between northern and southern hemisphere, which plays role especially in axial/apsidal precession climate cycles, but due to the orbital distance variability likely also having its chunk of influence when it comes to interannual variability. (If anyone is interested the 1° grid land/sea global distribution data I’ve recently compiled for my research using GE-Pro they’re here: tumetuestumefaisdubien1.sweb.cz/GLOBAL-LAND-SEA-STRATIFICATION-1DEGresolution-v1.6-dec-point-ver.xls it is free for distribution but I hope I must not remind anybody to give proper credits in a case of publication).
To Tuemetues..
We know Sun has commenced a departure from the stable trefoil pattern and I would like to see how Earth orbit changes accordingly forced by the movement of the Sun.
Have you the capability to plot Earth orbit relative to SSB covering say 1986-2040?.
Thanks for any insight.
Peter
Hi Peter, My understanding is that Earth basically orbits the mutual barycentre with the Sun (perturbed by other bodies), so it moves with the Sun around the SBB, so I don’t much understand what for such plot would be. You mean distance chart of Earth from SBB? I’m quite not sure if a 54 orbits plot would be still intelligible and worth of the effort.
Sun has departed from the stable trefoil orbit of SSB as described by Charvatova and now embarks on a wider ranging almost unstable orbit departing by up to 1.5Million K from SSB and solar activity declines. I am curious to know what effect that has on Earth orbit. Earth orbit must be forced by much the same amount so I asked the question if you have the software to make the plot similar to the solar chart by Carsten Arnholm here?. http://arnholm.org/astro/sun/sc24/sim1/
Regards
Peter
Today on kaltesonne.de, article revisiting the evidence linking Arctic amplification behind paywall:
… it is demonstrated that previously reported positive trends are likely an artifact of the methodology. No significant decrease in planetary‒scale wave phase speeds are found except in October‒November‒December, but this trend is sensitive to the analysis parameters. Moreover, the frequency of blocking occurrence exhibits no significant increase in any season in any of the three reanalyses, further supporting the lack of trends in wave speed and meridional extent.
Phasing-out model climatology which attempted to defeat physical laws with the antropologic power of parameters? Well, something like that 😀
Hi Peter, I have Solar simulator2, but I don’t have any similar software for visualization of Earth orbit. Only what I can give you is the Earth-Sun distance delta and deldot data (- I didn’t care about other orbital parameters because I didn’t compiled the dataset for perturbation research but for an insolation model – as it very much looks from the precise data the orbital distance variation is usually more important for interannual insolation variation than solar activity changes so the orbital distance needs to be incorporated into the model for it to give meaningful results, not speaking that the insolation model I try to put together is when it comes to solar activity changes intended to be based on the spectral irradiance variation, because as it quite looks from the SORCE spectral data the TSI is likely rather very insufficient even misleading indicator for determining Earth surface effective insolation variation due to highly wavelength dependent optical properties of atmosphere and surface materials – especially important with seawater – and very considerably different intensity variations in different spectral regions -as it looks quite often not in phase with the solar cycle and especially with the most important spectral regions for surface insolation). I have the data for 1890-2040 with 1 day resolution centered at 12:00 UTC, now finishing 1 second precision refinement (needed for fine statistics) of times and distances for perihelions and aphelions and you can compare the numbers yourself. Especially the perihelions and aphelions variation both in distances and timing (the dataset contains data for determining length of the astronomic year with subsecond accuracy) could be quite telling for your purpose in my opinion. If you send me email at tumetuestumefaisdubien at gmail.com and promise me you’ll not publish the data (it contains the most precise aphelion-perihelion timing/distance achievable now with civilian data and solar system model and I don’t want it to come into hands of astrologers which could abuse it as in the past) I can send it to you.
Best
Jan
Today on kaltesonne.de, article about the relationship between thunderstorm and solar activity, for Brazil from 1951 to 2009, publication behind paywall/a>:
The existence of periodicities around 11 years in six out of seven cities and their anti-phase behavior with respect to 11-year solar cycle suggest a global mechanism probably related to a solar magnetic shielding effect acting on galactic cosmic rays as an explanation for the relationship of thunderstorm and solar activity, although more studies are necessary to clarify its physical origin.
@mods: sorry typo in closing the a tag, is it possible to correct? if so, please also delete the present message. thank you 🙂