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From Euractiv, bad news for European energy supply security:
EU diplomats made no secret of the fact that they were flabbergasted by developments in Kyiv today (21 November).
First, the Ukrainian parliament failed to pass laws that would allow jailed opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko to go to Germany for medical treatment. Her release was seen as a sine qua non condition for the signature of the association agreement (AA) in Vilnius.
The phone, internet and email records of UK citizens not suspected of any wrongdoing have been analysed and stored by America’s National Security Agency under a secret deal that was approved by British intelligence officials, according to documents from the whistleblower Edward Snowden.
Roundup of COP19 Warsaw climate conference stories from Benny Peiser of GWPF
Representatives of most of the world’s poor countries have walked out of increasingly fractious climate negotiations after the EU, Australia, the US and other developed countries insisted that the question of who should pay compensation for extreme climate events be discussed only after 2015. The orchestrated move by the G77 and China bloc of 132 countries came during talks about “loss and damage” – how countries should respond to climate impacts that are difficult or impossible to adapt to, such as typhoon Haiyan. –John Vidal, The Guardian, 20 November 2013
Paul Homewood checks out claims made by the UK chief scientist who was advising govt when the Climate Change Act was passed.
By Paul Homewood
According to the UK’s last Chief Scientist, Sir John Beddington, we can expect more extreme, cold winters in the UK, courtesy of global warming. In an interview with ITV News last March he was asked :
“whether extreme weather events such as this cold spell were linked to climate change”
Beddington replied:
“What you can say is that these extreme events are more likely because climate has happened…. What we have been able to analyse shows that the probability of these more extreme events has been increased by the fact of having climate change”
This was despite the fact that Met Office had sent him a report two years earlier, saying that there was nothing abnormal at all about recent cold winters and that their projections forecast less extreme winters.
So what do the facts say? Let’s start by looking at the Met Office…
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Philippines typhoons have always been a danger. Even when Co2 was at low levels.
Tacloban was destroyed by typhoons in 1897 and 1912
From the Washington Herald, November 30, 1912.
That 15,000 persons were probably killed and wounded ln a Typhoon that swept the Philippine Islands last Tuesday was reported yesterday ln cable dispatches to the Bureau of Insular Affairs. The typhoon swept the Visayas and is said to have practically destroyed Tacloban. the capital of Leste
30 Nov 1912 – DEADLY TYPHOON. HOLOCAUST IN PHILIPPINES WASHING…
12 Jan 1898 – TYPHOON AND TIDAL WAVE IN THE PHILLIPINES. 7000
Adjustments…
Steve Goddard exposing NCDC malfeasance.
The graph below plots the difference between adjusted NCDC US temperature anomalies and RSS US temperature anomalies. NCDC shows a strong US warming trend, and RSS shows no US warming trend. NCDC and RSS are diverging at an astonishing 2.4ºC per century.
Climate at a Glance | Time Series
rss_monthly_msu_amsu_channel_tlt_anomalies_land_and_ocean_v03_3.txt
The divergence between the raw NCDC data (US HCN) and RSS satellites is much smaller (see graph below) – indicating that not only are the NCDC adjustments wrong, but they are actually going the wrong direction.
Donna Laframboise blogs from the COP19 climate conference in Warsaw
Activist media events are a shockingly institutionalized part of UN climate negotiations.
I’ve often wondered why practically every news story written about UN climate negotiations contains quotes from green activists. Well, that mystery has now been solved.
As week number two of the Warsaw summit kicked into high gear this morning (following a weekend lull), the degree to which activist groups are embedded in the climate negotiation process became horrifyingly clear.
Here at the summit there are two rooms set aside for press conferences. One of them was the site of six separate activist media events today.
At 10 am, the green group Germanwatch had the floor for 30 minutes. At 11, the World Resources Institute provided its views.
At 12:30 – to a packed house – the Climate Action Network presented the perspectives of Greenpeace and others regarding the first week of the conference. Then an anti-coal coalition released…
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The BBC’s Leanne Bennett has (inadequately) responded to my complaint about their 28gate climate reportage bias, failing to address the points I raised. Needless to say the email came from an address which doesn’t accept replies.
Dear Mr Tattersall
Reference CAS-2387218-M1MZXX
Thanks for contacting us.
We understand you believe the BBC’s reporting on climate change is biased.
The BBC is committed to impartial and balanced coverage when it comes to this issue.
That’s 5 UNFCCC COP failures in a row, an unprecedented record of failure, each Conference of the Parties has disintegrated faster than the COP that preceded it, with COP19 holding the current record.
There was never any doubt, from the outset that COP19 was going to be the biggest failure since records began, what has been surprising is the speed of that collapse, COP19 was effectively dead before it had begun.
It has just taken 5 days for COP19 to realize it was dead and hit the floor.
The make or break issue for COP19 was “loss and damage“, wealth redistribution to us regular folks and that great Green Socialist Barack Obama made sure that loss and damage was deader than Osama Bin Laden, before COP19 even started.
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A Hackle [1] is a toothed tool used to straighten fibres.
A Heckle [2] is much the same, aka a heckling comb.
Link to an image of an Hatchel
Text left from a wonderful archive at Arizona Uni.
http://www.cs.arizona.edu/patterns/weaving/
Yarn is as tangled. And many other meanings.
The Hockey Schtick is on a roll. Michael has turned up another paper demonstrating a strong solar effect on climate. See his post here
The interplanetary magnetic field influences mid-latitude surface atmospheric pressure
M M Lam, G Chisham and M P Freeman
M M Lam et al 2013 Environ. Res. Lett. 8 045001doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/045001
© 2013 IOP Publishing Ltd
Received 5 June 2013, accepted for publication 18 September 2013
Published 4 October 2013
Abstract
The existence of a meteorological response in the polar regions to fluctuations in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) component By is well established. More controversially, there is evidence to suggest that this Sun–weather coupling occurs via the global atmospheric electric circuit.
What is the current state of scientific knowledge with regard to seasonal and decadal variation and forecasting?
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/1/015602
Figure 7 in the paper:
‘Climate has already changed, and will continue to do so,under human influences (IPCC2007). A first order estimate of the likely effects is provided by the trend since 1900 (figure7).’
This is over-simplified because not all of this trend is attributable to human activities, the response to greenhouse gases is non-linear so that future human-induced changes could be different, and other anthropogenic forcings such as aerosols and ozone could produce responses very different to the trend.
Poetry please 🙂
As yet another tax payer funded “Climate Change” jamboree gets under way a child will still be dying every 21 seconds through the lack of a clean water supply. That’s not some political driven, pseudo-scientific, computer modelled scenario, based on an unproven hypotheses; that’s an empirical fact! The money is there to prevent it – but political attention and money is being diverted to provide funding for the man-made global warming activist agenda and to support the lifestyles of those who depend on it. The world should be ashamed!
I see now in Warsaw to stop the climate from changing,
The politicians another jamboree are arranging.
Forty five delegates from the UK they’ll be sending;
Loads of taxpayer’s money I’m sure they’ll be spending.
The mysteries of climate they’ll try to unravel;
(Loads of CO2 emissions as the free-loaders travel)
There’s no chance of success, as the blind lead the…
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The vigilant and logically minded Michael, proprietor of the excellent Hockey Schtick blog, has highlighted a paper published in ERL which is either a nicely judged ‘under the gatekeepers noses’ manoeuvre or an inadvertant self immolation of the global warming theory, which relies on net positive climate feedbacks to produce a scarinario.
Reposted from The Hockey Schtick :Wednesday, November 13, 2013
New paper shows the ‘simple basic physics’ of greenhouse theory exaggerate global warming by a factor of 8 times
A new paper published in Environmental Research Letters shows that simple greenhouse effect calculations predicted a catastrophic 6.6C increase of global temperature over the past ~150 years due to the increase in CO2 from 280 ppm to 400 ppm today. Observations, however, show the temperature rise was only 0.8C, or ~8 times less than predicted by the so-called ‘basic physics’ of the greenhouse effect. According to the authors; (more…)
From the ‘Not as bad as we theorised’ department, a paper which finds that models of water cycling in rainforest over-estimated the effect of drought by a big factor. The paper is paywalled, but there’s a write up here which summarises. Worth noting that the paper emphasises this natural resilience operates best in undisturbed forest.
Journal of Climate 2013 ; e-View
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00074.1
Impact of evapotranspiration on dry season climate in the Amazon forest
Anna Harper*
College of Engineering, Mathematics, and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, Devon, UK, Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
Ian T. Baker, A. Scott Denning, David A. Randall, Donald Dazlich, and Mark Branson
Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
Abstract
Moisture recycling can be an important source of rainfall over the Amazon forest, but this process relies heavily upon the ability of plants to access soil moisture. Evapotranspiration (ET) in the Amazon is often maintained or even enhanced during the dry season, when net radiation is high. However, ecosystem models often over predict the dry season water stress. We removed unrealistic water stress in an ecosystem model (the Simple Biosphere model, SiB3), and examined impacts of enhanced ET on the dry season climate when coupled to a GCM. The “Stressed” model experiences dry season water stress and limitations on ET, while the “Unstressed” model has enhanced root water access and exhibits strong drought tolerance.
Topical Tropical Typhoon info.
Since Typhoon Haiyan is in the news, it seems timely to look at what the IPCC AR5 WG1 report says on this subject. The word “typhoon” is used to describe strong cyclones in the West Pacific – apparently it is just the Chinese for “big wind”.
The key graph plotting the numbers of cyclones and typhoons is Figure 2.34:
It is quite clear from this graph that there has been no increase. The IPCC says so:
The Executive Summary at the start of Chapter 2 says
“Confidence remains low for long-term (centennial) changes in tropical cyclone activity”
and page 2-60 says
“Current datasets indicate no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century”.
In the Summary for Policymakers, the IPCC says that there has been an increase in intense tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic since 1970. Looking at the above graphs, this seems to be…
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I’m happy to assist this appeal for donations to victims of the typhoon in the Philippines as well as the challenge to Greg Laden the serial liar and libel merchant. What a wanker that guy is!
We’ve had issues with Mr. Laden before, and being called on it hasn’t changed his bad behavior, hopefully he’ll learn something this time. This is a pretty simple black and white issue, so I’ll do it with bullet points.
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Repost of a repost by Clive best, shamelessly stolen because it’s so good. This adds to the several posts already here at th talkshop comparing sunshine hours to temperature regionally and globally. How long can the mainstream climate scintists ignore this growing body of evidence which demonstrates a link between solar activty levels, albedo cloud amount levels and surface temperature? H/T to A.C. Osborn
This is a repost written by Euan Mearns and is an introduction to the work we consequently did this summer concerning cloud and CO2 radiative effects on UK temperatures. Two more posts will follow describing the radiative model in more detail.
Summary
Figure 1 Maximum daily temperature (Tmax, red, LH scale) and minimum daily temperature (Tmin, blue, RH scale) from the Leuchars weather station. The red and blue lines are annual averages. The black lines are centred 5y moving averages. Note high degree of co-variation between Tmax and Tmin. Also note how temperatures drifted higher during the 1990s and 2000s but recently are drifting down again, in keeping with the global temperature trend.
Read all about it by following the link below the break. Join in if you like. 🙂
Tallbloke's Talkshop 
