Antarctic Sea Ice Extent On Track For Record High Minimum – Jan 28 2014

Posted: January 28, 2014 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics

Cooling southern ocean keep Antarctic sea ice level high.

sunshine hours

Antarctic Sea Ice Extent  is very much on track to have the highest minimum in the modern satellite era.

The highest minimum was in 2008 at 3.69176 million sq km on day 51, The 2nd highest was in 2013 at 3.65040 million sq km on day 50.

The earliest minimum was day 43 in 1994. And the latest minimum was day 65 in 1986.

Antarctic Sea Ice Extent as of Jan 27 2014 was 1 million sq km above the 1981-2010 mean and 160,000 sq km above 2008.

Day 27 was the 10th daily record of the year.

Antarctic_Sea_Ice_Extent_Zoomed_2014_Day_27_1981-2010

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Comments
  1. tchannon says:

    This would be the Turney low?

  2. p.g.sharrow says:

    A good proxy for the energy balance of the earth is the Volume of ice accumulated on its’ surface. It would appear that we are losing energy and gaining ICE. No amount of Mann/Jones/Hanson caused “global warming” can cover up that much ice. Ice at the south pole and soon ice at the north. Ice sliding down out of canyons to overtake villages just as it did 800 years ago.
    Every 780 years the wheel makes its’ revolution. Science will have to accept patterns of periodicity. Just because we can not demonstrate cause and effect to the satisfaction of some, the fact is that the effect exists. Humans have known this for thousands of years. Science has to accept reality! Soon you will realize the truth about Gravity, the parts of the solar system is a whole machine, not just a loose collection of junk. Our weather/climate is a local symptom of the whole energy balance. pg

  3. Bob Weber says:

    Wow, that graph is chilling me out… well said p.g.

  4. ren says:

    Most important to understand that the pulses in the winter over the polar circle running from the stratosphere to the troposphere, and not vice versa.
    In winter, the temperature gradient at the edges of the vortex increases with altitude in the stratosphere from level 150 hPa, and the maximum is observed at the level of 50-10 hPa (20-30 km), so the vortex is most evident at the level of 50-30 hPa, where there is the lowest temperature and the highest gradients.

  5. ren says:

    I am convinced that the weather at the poles is linked by waves in the upper stratosphere.

  6. ren says:

    Tallbloke is not the end of surprises. Forecast polar vortex February 5th altitude of 23 km.

  7. Richard111 says:

    I can’t follow most of ren’s posts, my own lack of basic knowledge of the subject. But I have noticed that when Barrow posts a severe weather warning ARCTIC ice growth rate declines. The decline for today AND yesterday exceeded the present daily growth rate. Some 45,000 and more square kilometres of ice suddenly ‘not there’. Since ARCTIC air temperatures are about -25C and sea surface temperatures will not be able to melt that quantity of ice, then the only option left is the ice is being piled up! So when first year ice is piled up on first year ice what is it called? There seems to be a hell of a lot of it this winter. My guess is the summer melt rate will equal what is happening to this years Antarctic melt down (or up?).

  8. Stephen Richards says:

    No research needed here: Just ask Turdey.

  9. ren says:

    Richard111, I lean on the analysis of current data. I think that changes in solar activity will force study the behavior of ozone in the stratosphere.

  10. A C Osborn says:

    Is the warmth supposedly being measured in the Arctic actually the warmth escaping from the whole system and that is the “missing” heat?
    ie it is being lost not stored.

  11. tallbloke says:

    ACO: Partly, yes. Less ice cover allows more ocean heat content to escape, which raises air temperature.

  12. geran says:

    Two questions:

    1) How high does the “minimum” have to be before we declare a new ice age?
    2) Will the new ice age be blamed on AGW?

    (Rhetorical, of course….)

  13. tchannon says:

    Rather simple geran, look at the sea level “stand” and the answer is when it is obvious from historical data. Currently we are very close to but not at the highest.

    I don’t have docs on hand for this.

    Anyway, ask me in 1ky, as if there is a ghost of a chance.

  14. ren says:

    You can see the a pulse in the stratosphere to the troposphere moves, and not vice versa.

  15. Bob Weber says:

    Regarding http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif, I think it would be useful to start the animation back in Oct 2013, when solar activity really picked up, and see it play out. Interesting how the one warmup area starts near Korea and Japan, and the other appears to start near the eastern USA – Atlantic ocean area.

    If we could see http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_JFM_NH_2014.gif along side the above mentioned gif starting on Oct 2013, this might be helpful. I want to see at what height the anomalies started in the temp10anim.gif. Further, I want to see the timing of these two charts in relationship to the solar xray flare/particle activity we had during the same period. If I wasn’t so busy on my main project right now, I’d be tearing into that.

    On the bipolar see-saw, it would be nice to see the linkages described in oldbrew’s link http://www.geomar.de/en/research/fb1/fb1-p-oz/research-topics/low-to-high-latitude-climate-linkages/bipolar-seesaw/ for a recent period stretching over a year or so, as compared to solar flux, to get an idea as to timing and cause/effect.

  16. Bob Weber says:

    The other thing I noticed is both anomalies in temp10anim.gif started at nearly the same latitude, roughly 35 degrees north, AND almost exactly 180 degrees apart longitudinally.

  17. ren says:

    Bob Weber says: urther, I want to see the timing of these two charts in relationship to the solar xray flare/particle activity we had during the same period.
    Better check it in relation to Ap, ie reaction of the Earth to the SA.

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