Guest post from commenter ‘ren’ a friend from Poland with a strong interest in meteorology and some interesting ideas on the relationship between solar activity, cosmic rays, ozone levels and stratospheric pressure systems.
How did the polar vortex lock?
by ‘ren’ on 23-2-2014
This decline resulted in a short-term rise in temperature in the stratosphere, the ozone zone.
As a result, the temperature rise was halted polar vortex, which is picking up speed in the winter. View.
It is interesting that the inhibition occurred only over eastern Siberia, which indicates that over the area changes in solar activity caused the greatest effect. Smaller solar activity means an increase of ionizing radiation over the Arctic Circle, which in turn affects the reactions taking place in the area of the ozone over the Arctic Circle. As is known the temperature drops in the troposphere and the stratosphere borders later grow depending on the amount of ozone formed in the ozone zone.
These seemingly small changes in the stratosphere were the beginning of the lock polar vortex, which lasts all winter and causes influx of polar air over North America and warm, with short breaks over Europe. The first anomaly was the harbinger of the storm, which completely surprised the farmers in South Dakota in early October 2013. Weak polar vortex allowed the influx of warm air over the Arctic, which clearly undermined the growth rate of sea ice.
Recent strong growth in solar activity caused a strong decrease in cosmic rays, while the temperature in the stratosphere and the troposphere above the polar circle, as shown in the above graphic, which shows the temperature anomalies. It follows that the polar vortex should now speed up and shrink. But I suppose that shifting the entire vortex will still be visible.
So currently looks like the polar vortex at a height of about 17 km (70 hPa).