Lisa Goddard of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, New York has a commentary article in Nature Climate Change today entitled ‘Heat hide and seek’ which caught my eye. In part it says this:
Natural variability seems to be capable of accounting for changes in ocean heat uptake of the magnitude experienced. Many recent studies point to the role of PDO in this recent hiatus. What is particularly compelling is that this period has also been one of negative PDO. Further suggestive evidence is that the last period with decade-scale trends in global mean temperature as weak as that experienced since the turn of the century occurred through the 1950s and early 1960s, which was another period dominated by very negative PDO conditions. This shows that hiatus periods are unusual but not unprecedented.
Interestingly, no one really talks about the other side of this situation: global warming acceleration. The mid-1970s through to the mid-1990s was a period of positive PDO and saw an acceleration in warming. If you consider the arguments about the effect of the negative phase on warming, then a positive PDO should result in the opposite. That is, reduce the relative rate of deeper ocean heat increases and instead increase the rate at which surface warming is observed.
_______________________________________________
You might expect Lisa to then discuss the thorny question of how much of ‘Anthropogenic global warming’ (AGW) was actually just the positive phase of the PDO. Not a bit of it, she slips glibly onwards to the conclusion of her article which consists of a bit of mild scaremongering and a demand for money for more data gathering buoys.






Shouldn’t she have been aware of that for years ?
The speed that the buoys are dying due to lack of maintenance means they do need some new ones. LOL
And once you understand that the ~60 year cycle is a natural cycle, and you remove that, the next step is to look at the 208 year cycle (solar and climate) and remove that. The entire 20th century was the up phase of that cycle. And then when that is done you can look at the 2300 year cycle (also solar and climate) and recognize that we will continue to be in the up phase of that for hundreds of years. There might be a little bit left for AGW, but it is difficult to be sure.
So discount the negative and appropriate the positive, and all’s well! Nice work, if you can get it.
It’s an “adjusted and homogenised” PDO that is only effective when the warmist want.