Archive for February, 2014

Real Climate Science

BERKELEY, Calif., June 4, 2012 – Solar cells do not offset greenhouse gases or curb fossil fuel use in the United States according to a new environmental book, Green Illusions (June 2012, University of Nebraska Press), written by University of California – Berkeley visiting scholar Ozzie Zehner. ”

Green Illusions explains how the solar industry has grown to become one of the leading emitters of hexafluoroethane (C2F6), nitrogen trifluoride (NF3), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). These three potent greenhouse gases, used by solar cell fabricators, make carbon dioxide (CO2) seem harmless. Hexafluoroethane has a global warming potential that is 12,000 times higher than CO2, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It is 100 percent manufactured by humans, and survives 10,000 years once released into the atmosphere. Nitrogen trifluoride is 17,000 times more virulent than CO2, and SF6, the most treacherous greenhouse gas, is over 23,000 times more threatening.

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Caracas Chronicles

San Cristobal ayer San Cristobal on Tuesday night

Dear International Editor:

Listen and understand. The game changed in Venezuela last night. What had been a slow-motion unravelling that had stretched out over many years went kinetic all of a sudden.

What we have this morning is no longer the Venezuela story you thought you understood.

Throughout last night, panicked people told their stories of state-sponsored paramilitaries on motorcycles roaming middle class neighborhoods, shooting at people and  storming into apartment buildings, shooting at anyone who seemed like he might be protesting. People continue to be arrested merely for protesting, and a long established local Human Rights NGO makes an urgent plea for an investigation into widespread reports of torture of detainees. There are now dozens of serious human right abuses: National Guardsmen shooting tear gas canisters directly into residential buildings. We have videos of soldiers shooting civilians on the street. And that’s just…

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Bashing the bishops

Posted: February 20, 2014 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics

Bishop Nick Baines considers the welfare cuts, the letter from 27 Bishops and the reaction to it.

Nick Baines's Blog

Before I went to Kazakhstan for the first time in 2003 I had little idea of its post-independence history. I knew it quite well (from a distance and in a bit of a weird way) as a Soviet republic, but after the collapse of the Soviet empire and its unilateral Declaration of Independence in 1991, I had lost track and lost interest.

So, 2003 was only twelve years after this massive change. I learned that Russia immediately cut off every economic or financial lifeline to the new Republic of Kazakhstan and left it – the dumping ground of the old USSR – as a polluted and poverty-stricken cast-off, ready to sink into oblivion. Twelve years later, however, the country was developing its economy, shaping its identity, carving out its place in the international political community, and building a confident new nation. Yes, there was also corruption and some very unsavoury…

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These phone-ins we do at LBC do have a habit of generating a few headlines, and today’s CALL CLEGG was no exception. Nick Clegg has challenged Nigel Farage to a live debate on the EU.

As it’s PHONEFARAGE tomorrow morning, it shouldn’t be too difficult to get an answer from the UKIP leader. But I wonder if Nick Clegg might have cause to regret issuing the invitation, as it raises Nigel Farage to the same level as the Deputy Prime Minister. It also could put the general election TV debates in jeopardy as Farage would have a much stronger case for inclusion in those debates this time around. But I suspect David Cameron would rather shove a red hot poker up his backside than take part in a debate with Farage. The two loathe each other.

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London Array Extension Scrapped

Posted: February 19, 2014 by tallbloke in government, Politics, wind

Good news for wildlife and energy bill payers from Mary Louis, of  Kent Online:

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A huge expansion of the London Array wind farm off the north Kent coast will not go ahead, it has been revealed today.

A statement from the consortium behind the world’s largest wind farm put the decision to halt the next stage of development down to various factors – including uncertainty over the potential impact on birds.

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I came across this recent paper on Arxiv (also published in MNRAS) which nicely confirms some of the work we have been doing in PRP on energy exchange in the solar system via mean motion resonance. Team wassup refer to this well known phenomenon (Observed by Galileo and derived by Laplace) as ‘numerology’. Climate computer games modeler Chris Colose calls it “third rate crank science”.   🙂
An earlier 2010 paper finds a fourth planet in the system as part of the resonant coupling.

Dynamical analysis of the Gliese-876 Laplace resonance

J. G. Marti, C. A. Giuppone, C. Beauge (Submitted on 28 May 2013)

The existence of multiple planetary systems involved in mean motion conmensurabilities has increased significantly since the Kepler mission. Although most correspond to 2-planet resonances, multiple resonances have also been found. The Laplace resonance is a particular case of a three-body resonance where the period ratio between consecutive pairs is n_1/n_2 near to n_2/n_3 near to 2/1. It is not clear how this triple resonance can act in order to stabilize (or not) the systems. The most reliable extrasolar system located in a Laplace resonance is GJ876 because it has two independent confirmations.

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Andrew Montford is increasingly being invited onto radio and television as a rational foil to extremism and here is writing in a weekly “magazine”, lively read is The Spectator.

pa-washing

Why the Met Office has hung its chief scientist out to dry

Andrew Montford 18 February 2014 10:57
Link to Spectator article and of course is linked by his blog Bishop Hill

The Met Office has not changed even though it might look that way to some. I’m not sure what Slingo did wrong from the Met Office point of view if anything since this might be knee jerk damage limitation after the event.

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Mann’s Screw Up #1, “Excelgate”

Posted: February 18, 2014 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics

fnordfn. Something to whet the appetite on the long legal road Mark Steyn is treading

Izuru

were false, resulting from their misunderstanding of the format of a spreadsheet version of the dataset they had specifically requested from my associate, Scott Rutherford. None of the problems they cited were present in the raw, publicly available version of our dataset, which was available at that time at ftp://holocene.evsc.virginia.edu/pub/MBH98/.

This claim is similar to what he told the Penn State Inquiry Mann now claims shows he was innocent of the charges leveled against him:

The issue of an “incorrect version” of the data came about because Dr. McIntyre had requested the data (which were already available on the FTP site) in spreadsheet format, and Dr. Rutherford, early on, had unintentionally sent an incorrectly formatted spreadsheet.

You’ll note in Mann’s book, he claimed his critics misunderstood the format of a file, yet Mann told the Penn State Inquiry the file in question was “incorrectly formatted.” It’s difficult to imagine why…

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Not content with with swatting large number of endangered birds and bats with wind turbines, the ‘sustainable’ green, environmentally conscious energy business has added a novel new method of killing avian species, as reported by the Australian news website:

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There have been reports that birds have been scorched and killed at The Ivanpah Solar Electric Power Plant. Image credit: news.com.au

A new giant solar farm in the American Mojave Desert has reportedly been scorching birds as they fly through the extremely hot ‘thermal flux’.

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Climate sanity from Matt Ridley via GWPF

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There is no evidence, Mr Miliband, Lord Stern and others, that our floods and storms are related to climate change

In the old days we would have drowned a witch to stop the floods. These days the Green Party, Greenpeace and Ed Miliband demand we purge the climate sceptics.

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Gerry Pease sends the following:

I believe this may turn out to be an important analysis, with significant consequences for Earth’s environment just five years from now.

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An analysis of heliospheric magnetic field flux based on sunspot number from 1749 to today and prediction for the coming solar minimum

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Our Polish friend ‘ren’ is getting frustratd with the language barrier and the fact that I’ve been way too busy on other stuff (PRP and UKIP) to get to grips with what he is trying to tell us about his ideas concerning the effect of cosmic rays on ozone. So far as I can tell he thinks the polar vortex is also influenced by the position of Earth’s magnetic north pole. Please could the readership help untangle his recent comments and contribute to s discussion so he doesn’t feel ignored. A lot of his linked plots are interesting, so please take the time to have a look. I have asked ren to write an article in Polish we can have translated, but I do not know if he has understood the request. Any Polish speakers out there who can help as intermediary? Thanks.

 

Tallbloke please explain to me why you not interested in serious of meteorologists that the polar vortex is blocked us from Siberia from autumn! After all, in the eyes of is beating. It is the cause severe of winter in the USA from October (snowstorm in South Dakota). I show at a glance:
1 Now the polar vortex a height of 30 km.
2.Now polar vortex height of 17 km.
3 Circulation at 850 hPa.
On the final graphic can be seen as a weak polar vortex “lets” the warm air above the polar circle.
1.http://oi60.tinypic.com/vmsjyw.jpg
2.http://oi60.tinypic.com/jsfrbl.jpg
3.http://oi60.tinypic.com/so4n7d.jpg
A beautifully shows a cosmic rays. 100 hPa.

Do you really can not see what is happening with the polar vortex? After all, it takes all winter.
Submitted on 2014/02/15 at 7:24 am

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Pierre Gosselin over at the excellent Germany based ‘No Tricks Zone’ has a hot story on the sudden shutdown of journal ‘Pattern Recognition in Physics’ by Martin Rasmussen of Copernicus (The innovative science un-publishers). He’s found a screen capture of the PRP website frontpage before the spurious excuses for the closure were added to create a figleaf for this profoundly anti-scientific and illiberal action:

The Real Motivation Behind PRP Journal Shutdown Exposed: It Challenged IPCC Science!
wpid-PRP-Censured.jpgBy P Gosselin on 14. Februar 2014

The original motivation behind Copernicus Publishing director Martin Rasmussen’s decision to shut down the new journal Pattern Recognition Physics had nothing to do with the alleged “nepotistic” behavior among editors and peer-reviewers, but appears to have had all to do with politically incorrect questioning of IPCC orthodoxy. You can see how Rasmussen’s accusations appeared on PRP on the morning of January 17, 2014 at Bigcitylib.blogspot.com.

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Update on Glasgow police helicopter fatal accident

Posted: February 14, 2014 by tchannon in Uncategorized

AAIB (Air Accident Investigation Branch) have issued a special bulletin dated today 14th February 2014

Valentine’s day, there will be many tears

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From SWK AKA The Ghost of Corporal Jones, we get some inside info on the cause of the flooding problems in Somerset:

floodI’ve tried to get the following info into the MSM, I managed to find ‘Bishophill’ last night and from there got to here, it might be of interest to those who want the truth of the situation

I wish to remain anonymous for good reason, I think you’ll understand why.

You have to go back to 1939, when the MOD decided that they needed a new Munitions factory for HDX explosives, HDX uses a lot of water, all munitions manufacture does, but HDX is greedy.

The levels had too much water and so we built one on the Levels, ROF37 or ROF Bridgewater or ROF Woolavington, it’s all the same place.

To ensure that there was enough water even on the waterlogged Levels, we built the Huntspill River, we then connected it to the River Brue to the North and the Kings Sedgemoor Drain via a pipe to the South, we also widened the River Sowy to get water to our factory.

We would use >5 thousand million litres every year, rain or shine.

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Co-moderator writes,

As regular readers know Tallbloke has been putting a toe into the water on helping to change local politics.

I’ll let a local newspaper report and this seems even handed.

Labour win Wythenshawe and Sale East by-election
14 Feb 2014 02:38

UKIP come second in poll triggered by death of Labour MP Paul Goggins

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/labour-by-election-win-wythenshawe-sale-6708295

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Profiting from the proles.

Pride's Purge

(not satire – it’s the Tories!)

Flood-hit residents in Christchurch Dorset have been told by their Tory-run Council that they have to buy sandbags at £30 for a pack of four.

They have twice written to their MP – Conservative Christopher Chope – to request a meeting to explain their frustrations, but he has ignored them.

Here’s the story reproduced in full from the Bournemouth Echo:

Angry residents blast council
ANGRY residents in a flood-hit flat block have blasted a “total lack of support” from Christchurch council and their MP, writes Melanie Vass.

Residents in Conifer Close – some of whom were evacuated on Christmas Day – say they are the “forgotten corner” of Christchurch and living in fear of further flooding.

While PM David Cameron promises that “money is no object” when it comes to helping flood victims, Conifer Close residents have had to buy their own sandbags…

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Updates from the GWPF

flood-towncentreIt has emerged that the Environment Agency rejected calls to dredge the flood-hit lower reaches of the Thames because of the presence of the endangered mollusc. In a 2010 report, seen by the Mail, they ruled out dredging between Datchet and Staines because the river bed was home to the vulnerable creatures. And even though a public consultation indicated support for de-silting work, the quango said it would be ‘environmentally unacceptable’ due to the ‘high impact on aquatic species’. –Daniel Martin, Daily Mail, 13 February 2014

There is “no evidence” that climate change is leading to more extreme weather, Lord Lawson has said, as he called on the Government to use the floods as a “wake-up call” to stop “littering the countryside” with wind turbines and solar panels. Britain needs to have “cheap and reliable” forms of energy to ensure that the country is “resilent and robust to whatever nature throws at us”, Lord Lawson said.  –Peter Dominiczak, The Daily Telegraph, 13 February 2014

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January 2014 Rainfall Not So Unusual

Posted: February 13, 2014 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics

Record rain can happen at any point in the autumn or winter in UK

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

rain | Powered by Peanut Butter

Before anybody gets carried away with claims of “record rainfall” that we keep hearing about in the UK, let’s consider the facts.

In the UK as a whole, January was only tie 17th wettest month since 1910, with 183.8mm.

Relatively speaking, last month was wetter in England & Wales, but even there it was only the 16th wettest month, on the England & Wales Series, dating back to 1766 . Last month recorded 184.6mm, well short of the wettest month on record, October 1903, which had 218.1mm.

The table below lists the wettest months on the England & Wales series.

MonthPrecipitation
mm
Oct 1903218.1
Nov 1852202.5
Nov 1770200.8
Nov 1940196.5
Dec 1876193.9
Aug 1912192.9
Aug 1799192.1
Nov 2009192.1
Dec 1914190.8
Sep 1918189.5
Oct 2000188.0
Sep 1799186.8
Dec 1868185.6
Sep 1797185.4

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The Tale Of Two Reports

Posted: February 12, 2014 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics

Paul Homewood compares and contrasts two recent MET-O reports, one of which we have recently looked at for it’s sea level claims.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

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http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2014/01/03/uk-weather-how-stormy-has-it-been-and-why/

On 3rd January, the Met Office issued a report about the wet and stormy weather during December.

Amongst their conclusions were:

1) It had been the stormiest month since 1993.

2) The jet stream had been sitting in the right place to bring those storms to the UK.

3) The jet stream has been particularly strong over the previous few weeks. This was partly due to particularly warm and cold air being squeezed together in the mid-latitudes, where the UK sits. This could be due to nothing more than the natural variability which governs Atlantic weather.

4) However, looking at the broader picture, there is one factor which could increase the risk of a stormy start to winter and this is called the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO for short).

This is a cycle, discovered by the Met Office in 1959, which involves a narrow band of fast…

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