Shock News 1923 : Meteorological Office Exists as a Corrective to Scare Mongering

Once a bastion of calm objectivity, the Meteorological Office now promotes climate scare-mongering.

Climatism

“People have been imagining that the climate is changing, exaggerating every weather event, getting widespread press coverage, and blaming it on man – for as long as there have been newspapers.” – Steven Goddard, Climate Change Insanity Never Changes

Every summer when the thermometer rears unexpectedly or remains at a high level longer than is comfortable, people assert that the climate is changing. The same thing happens in winter whenever rain sets in and persists in a fashion indifferent from that of which anybody has recollection. South Australia’s winter, this year has occasioned the same speculation; not without justification, when for three months … the climate appeared not only to change but to disappear altogether, leaving the State with no climate but with just wet weather.

There is nothing more difficult than to remember and to compare weather that once prevailed with that experienced today. In no other sphere is memory so remiss or judgment so unreliable. 

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Elected: I’m now vice chair at my local UKIP branch

We held our local UKIP branch AGM last night where I was elected as vice chair and webcomms officer. I’m looking foward to working more closely with my committee colleagues Craig Sweaton (chair & media comms), Anne Murgatroyd (secretary) and Phil Banks (treasurer). The mainstream media is mis-portraying what UKIP stand for, so I thought I’d republish this short piece from Stuart O’Reilly at Oxford University to counter the misinformation:

Stuart O’Reilly

There seems to be an awful lot of misinformation about UKIP. And believe me, if the discourses were true, I would certainly not be a member. We’ve had a few problematic characters: Godfrey Bloom and David Silvester being those that Oxford students will probably be the most familiar with. But our goals are far too important for us to be deterred by such people.

‘UKIP dislikes immigrants, right?’ Wrong. The vast majority of immigrants come to Britain to contribute, socially and economically. But our immigration system is flawed. We have a huge oversupply in the labour market, particularly in relation to unskilled and low skilled workers. It cannot be right that our government increasingly adds to this problem by having an open-door policy. The result is that wages are driven down, people are exploited and unemployment remains relatively unchanged. UKIP want a points-based system that does not discriminate against people from Africa, Asia and South America as the government’s current policy does.

UK Weather: Incoming!

Batten down and hang on. 100mph gusts expected on coasts and exposed ground.

Internet freedom: ‘Don’t Spy On Us’ launched in the UK today

We can do this. Today, people around the world are coming together to say no more.

GCHQ in the UK and the NSA in America are hoovering up your personal data when you visit websites, send emails and texts, make calls and use social media and sharing the data with each other.

When I first heard these revelations from Edward Snowden, it was overwhelming. Now though, we’ve got an ambitious plan to change UK surveillance for good.

The Day We Fight Back is today.

Met Office sea level forecast, update

Tim writes

According to Richard Betts, a Met Office go between, an original publication omitted fundamental information in relation to forecast. It has now been amended by adding a base date of 1990.

The projected SLR of 11-16cm by 2030 for the English Channel comes from the UKCP09 projections, see this report, Table 2, columns for “High” (16.0) and “Low” (11.4) for London.

But crucially, these numbers are relative to 1990 (the UKCP09 baseline), not 2014. This was not stated. Clearly there’s been some sea level rise since 1990, so the numbers between 2014 and 2030 would be smaller.

The omission led to the impression this was a new forecast when actually it is historic and I suggest misleading. UK09 is a report using a near 20 year old baseline. Betts says this is for London! London is on sedimentary strata and an artesian well, plus ground conditions are unstable.
Is that for a gauge or a model guess?

Why choose a London projection then play switch to English Channel? Seems odd to me.

Unimportant, the sea level change over a wide area is around 1.7x mm/year where London will be the same.

My figure of 1.74, came from a few seconds of software run here on annual data. What follows shows 1.77 is closer, of no importance.

Somerset floods: The fingerpointing begins

‘Dear God, please don’t get me sacked’

We made a mistake, there’s no doubt about that and we perhaps relied too much on the Environment Agency’s advice.
I’ll apologise. I’ll apologise unreservedly.
I am really sorry that we took the advice … we thought we were dealing with experts.
Communities Minister Eric Pickles BBC Andrew Marr Show 9-2-2014

Ouch!

‘Dear God, please stop pissing on my parade’

No matter how many mistakes the EA makes it is not up to ministers to criticise.
Environment Agency Chief Lord Chris Smith BBC R4 ‘today’ 10-2-2014

.
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Blimey! The mandarin speaks. Paraphrase ‘Suck it up and spit it in a bucket peasants’

Met Office forecasting skill on show.

In the document backing up Dame Slingo of Somerset’s reframing of weather as climate we find this gem:

Sea level along the English Channel has already risen by about 12cm in the last 100 years. With the warming we are already committed to over the next few decades, a further 11-16cm of sea level rise is likely by 2030. This equates to 23-27cm (9-10½ inches) of total sea level
rise since 1900.

(c)Crown Copyright 2014, Met Office, NERC
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/n/i/Recent_Storms_Briefing_Final_07023.pdf

NOTE THAT MET-O has changed their wording a little: SEE UPDATE HERE:

Tim Channon has plotted this so we can take a look at what the MET Office is telling us:

Figure 1

See figure 1. Note units, 11-16cm  is  110 to 160 mm.

 

Met Office Report Says Sea Levels Likely to Rise 11-16 cm by 2030?

Ruth Dixon spots a curiously unreferenced assertion in the MET-O’s new report backing Dame Slingo’s reframing of the weather as climate.

My Garden Pond

Update 11 Feb 2014: Met Office says Oh, you thought we meant from now? No, from 1990! See comment from Richard Betts, below and the updated Met Office report.

13 Feb: A further comment from Richard confirms that the Met Office projections for UK sea level rise are 5 to 7 cm between now and 2030.

This is an edited version of a comment I made on Bishop Hill on 9 Feb:

In February 2014 the Met Office and Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH) published a report called “The Recent Storms and Floods in the UK”. (pdf of original version here). The report makes an interesting prediction about sea level rise by 2030 on p.21 (the same figures are also given on p.2):

Sea level along the English Channel has already risen by about 12cm in the last 100 years. With the warming we are…

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Dame Slingo at UKMO Crosses the Line on Extreme Weather Attribution

Reposted from Notes on a Scandal Excellent analysis on Julia Slingo’s reframing of the relationship between ‘climate change’ and ‘weather’ by guest blogger Jaime Jessop.

It’s happened. The battle lines have finally been re-drawn. Global surface temperature rises (which have been inconveniently static for 17+ years) have been ditched by the warmists in favour of the new CAGW meme – extreme weather. The opportunities for making unfalsifiable claims are endlessly more expansive and the sheer headline-grabbing power of ‘big weather’ far exceeds that of mere ‘global warming’.

The remarkable UK Cyclonic Winter of 2013/14 – still ongoing as we speak – has afforded the warmist politicos an eagerly awaited unique opportunity to climb firmly aboard the extreme weather bandwagon and claim that it’s all down to CAGW branded ‘climate change’ (patent pending). Hence Dame Slingo of the UK Met Office now claiming definitively that ” “all the evidence” supported the theory that climate change had played a role” in the devastating West Country floods.

£31 Million For The Birds

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

 

A few things to round up, with regard to the floods in Somerset.

 

New Bird Sanctuary

One of the major criticisms of the Environment Agency has been its failure to properly dredge the rivers that drain the Somerset Levels. EA Chairman, Chris Smith claims that this is due to a lack of funding, yet, as local MP Ian Liddell-Grainger, MP for Bridgwater in Somerset, says: “We’re just sick to death of it [flooding]. They [the Environment Agency] need to dredge these rivers, stop spending money — £31 million — on bird sanctuaries and spend £5 million, that’s all we want, to sort this out.”

 

The bird sanctuary, he refers to, is also in Somerset, at Steart. This was the Press Release when the scheme was launched two years ago

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John Christy: Climate Prediction too Uncertain for Policymaking

John Christy has been interviewed by ‘Talking about the weather‘:

John Christy, director of the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama-Huntsville.John Christy is a climate scientist at the University of Alabama-Huntsville. Along with Roy Spencer, he developed the first satellite temperature record of the Earth. Skeptical about catastrophic anthropogenic global warming, he has been invited to speak before Congress several times. He is the director of the Earth System Science Center at UAH.

TATW: What would be the single piece of information that you would convey to people who have strong opinions about climate and little knowledge?

CHRISTY: A fundamental aspect of science is that when we scientifically understand a system, we are able to predict how the system evolves in time. The comparison of model output with observations indicates we have much less understanding than what is needed to predict it with any confidence. I certainly don’t see the predictive skill necessary for policy determination.

Julia Slingo: Shark jumping in the winter storms.

Climate Change is a key factor in the storms that have battered parts of Britain this winter, according to the Met Office’s chief scientist, who also warned that the country should prepare itself for similar events in the future.

 

Dame Julia Slingo said while there was not yet “definitive proof”, “all the evidence” pointed to Climate Change, and suggested that detecting when and how storms develop would become increasingly important.

According to new analysis from the Met Office, persistent rainfall over Indonesia and the tropical West Pacific triggered a global weather system that included the severe storms that have flooded thousands of homes in Britain, as well as the exceptionally cold weather in North America.

“In a nutshell, while there is no definitive answer for the current weather patterns that we have seen, all the evidence suggests that climate change has a role to play in it,” Dame Julia said.The “clustering and persistence” of storms that have hit the UK was extremely unusual, she added. “We have seen exceptional weather. It is consistent with what we might expect from climate change.”

GP revolt against sale of patient data gathers pace as health trusts threaten the sack

Massive threat to personal medical data privacy as automatic opt-in to is enforced. From Computing.co.uk:

More GPs either refusing to comply with care.data as first refusenik GP is threatened with the sack

Increasing numbers of GP practices are revolting against the government’s care.data scheme to extract and sell “pseudonymised” patient data to the private sector.

And GPs that refuse to comply with central government instructions to allow the Health and Social Care Information Centre (HSCIC) to extract and upload patient data have been warned that they are putting their jobs at risk.

“Dear Aunty, have you really had a change of heart about the F-word?”

Agitate! Resist! Lol.

Aunty Frackers blog

Well, yes, I have to admit that I have dears. It seems that I have completely overlooked the many dangers.

Let me tell you what I have discovered about this industry, that makes it such a great threat to our way of life.

Land grab

This industry will continue to consume vast tracts of our countryside, with ramshackle roads built to accommodate it’s heavy machinery cross-crossing fields. On average, around 33% of available land is sacrificed to it worldwide.

Heavy goods vehicles on our rural roads

Getting materials to and from the various sites that support this industry requires vast numbers of road tanker and other HGV journeys on our little rural roads, flowerpots. On top of this, there is the machinery and equipment that’s needed to make the industry function.

Methane emissions [1]

A potent greenhouse gas, albeit with a shorter lifespan in the atmosphere than CO2, this industry…

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Red letter day: Printed copies of PRP special edition arrive

Around ten days ago I made an enquiry to Copernicus (the innovative science unpublishers) asking when they would be billing me for the order I made at the end of 2013. It turned out they had forgotten to do so, and they provided an invoice for a fresh order on Jan 27, 10 days after they axed the journal.

Trojans and Hildas in the asteroid zone

When the $6 billion+ James Webb space telescope is launched by NASA in 2018, where will they put it?
Quoting NASA: ‘The Webb won’t be orbiting the Earth – instead we will send it almost a million miles out into space to a place called “L2.”‘

Image credit: Sol Station

So we have two questions: where is ‘L2’, and what does it have to do with asteroids? It’s a point approximately 1,500,000 kilometres (930,000 miles) beyond the Earth, such that a straight line can be drawn from L2 through Earth to the Sun. In fact the telescope will go into a ‘halo orbit’ to avoid Earth’s shadow, i.e. move around the exact L2 point.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halo_orbit

And where do the asteroids come in? Well, the ‘L’ in L2 stands for Lagrange, the Italian-French mathematician who first predicted the existence of five special points in a planet’s orbit now known as Lagrange (or Lagrangian) points.

Internet freedom and privacy rally: GCHQ and NSA under the spotlight

On Tuesday, internet users all over the world are standing up to say no to GCHQ and the NSA’s mass surveillance. Over the last eight months we’ve heard plenty about how intelligence agencies monitor us on the Internet.

Our surveillance laws have let the intelligence agencies extend their reach deep into our private lives.Tuesday 11th February is The Day We Fight Back.

Shell game, oiler links

Tim writes, the best way I can handle writing a story of this nature is write it up straght and serially, jigsaw piece at a time. Draw your own conclusions.

Exhibit 1

This starts with the Salby saga last year which led me to take a look at Macquarie University (Australia), shake it to see what fell out. A lot of bad stuff.

One peripheral item involved

“Australia’s Climate Change & Energy Dilemma – the case for emergency action
Ian Dunlop, Director of Australia21”

He was allowed to give a presentation to students.

Motherlode Part III

Oh dear. I get the feeling Mark Steyn may be requesting more disclosure than Michael Mann wants to disclose

Real Climate Science

The latter part of Briffa’s trees was deleted, because it didn’t match GISS temperatures.

The Deleted Portion of the Briffa Reconstruction « Climate Audit

As ugly as this was, it is worse than it seems. Briffa’s trees did match Hansen, 1981. The next graph overlays Briffa on Hansen, 1981 northern latitude temperatures. The match was almost perfect.

pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/1981/1981_Hansen_etal_1.pdf

In order to create the hockey stick cheat, they had to do the GISS data tampering cheat first. The entire basis of the hockey stick is junk science.

The destruction of this data was done in a calculated fashion, by the world’s top climate scientists.

di2.nu/foia/1254108338.txt

They did exactly what Wigley was suggesting, removing more than 0.15 C from 1940’s global temperatures. This tampering is what made the hockey stick possible. Graph below is normalized to 1978.

Another way of looking at this data is to normalize it to 1940. In this view…

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Anti-scientic intimidation of Journal Editors and Publishers by IPCC Authors

No system is perfect, and sometimes papers with errors in them get past peer review into the scientific literature via journal publication. The checks and balances in the system operate to deal with this. The scientific method works through the process of the proposal and rebuttal of hypotheses, conducted in the scientific literature in as rational and objective manner as possible. If one group of scientists get papers published and another group believe their work to contain errors, they write a rebuttal paper pointing out the errors and get it published in the same journal the original work was published in, or in another journal if the editors don’t accept their rebuttal paper.

However, in the highly politicised and emotive world of climate science, things work differently, as the excerpts from the email chain below demonstrate:

> >>>—–Original Message—–
> >>>From: Phil Jones [mailto:p.jones@xxx.ac.uk]
> >>>Sent: Wednesday, 16 April 2003 6:23 PM
> >>>To: Mike Hulme; Barrie.Pittock@xxxx.au
> >>>j.salinger@xxxx.com; pachauri@xxxx.res.in; Greg.Ayers@xxxxx.au;
> >>>Rick.Bailey@xxxxx.au; Graeme.Pearman@xxxxx.au Subject: Re: Recent
> >>>climate sceptic research and the journal Climate Research
> >>>