Climate change: what we don’t know

Posted: April 17, 2014 by oldbrew in alarmism, atmosphere, climate, data, Natural Variation, Politics, propaganda, solar system dynamics, Uncertainty

………….A good attempt to try and see through the fog of the ‘climate wars.’

Climate Etc.

by Judith Curry

This past week, there have been several essays and one debate that provide some good perspectives on what we don’t know about climate change, and whether we should be alarmed.

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Comments
  1. oldbrew says:

    A telling point made by meteorology expert Lennart Bengtsson:

    ‘Global warming has not been a serious problem so far if we rely on observations. It is only a problem when we refer to climate simulations by computer models.’

    ‘There is no alternative to such computer simulations if one wants to predict future developments. However, since there is no way to validate them, the forecasts are more a matter of faith than a fact.’

  2. But we do know that it is NOT CO2 that changes the climate. We know by looking at historical climate changes and seeing there is NO correlation between CO2 concentration changes and temperature.

    If that were not enough CO2 always follows the temperature never leads it.

    On the other hand the correlation between prolonged solar minimum and maximum periods is quite strong.

    Medieval Warm Period High Prolonged Solar Activity

    Little Ice Age Period Low Prolonged Solar Activity

    Modern Warm Period High Prolonged Solar Activity

    Post 2005 Solar Activity is Low the result will be a cold period of temperature.

    The GHG effect in my opinion is a result of the energy the greenhouse gases have to work with which is present in the climatic system of the earth via the sun.

  3. oldbrew says:

    Another quote from Bengtsson:

    ‘before radical and hasty changes to the current energy system are implemented, there must be robust evidence that climate change is significantly detrimental. We are still far away from such evidence.’

    Far away? You would never know it from reading the claims of IPCC policy advocates.

  4. ArndB says:

    In his Nature interview (09 April 2014) James Lovelock assert that: „The thing we’ve all forgotten is the heat storage of the ocean – it’s a thousand times greater than the atmosphere and the surface“.
    Would it not much more important to take the average ocean temperature of about +4°C into account?

  5. oldbrew says:

    ArndB: yes, see Stephen Wilde’s discussion of that…

    http://www.newclimatemodel.com/the-hot-water-bottle-effect/

  6. ren says:

    Polar vortex in the stratosphere. Strong vortex cuts off the exchange of warm and cold air over the Arctic Circle.

  7. ren says:

    You can see that this year repeated pattern polar vortex of January 2013.

  8. oldbrew says:

    ‘Polar vortex or ice age?’ – one view:

    ‘My generation has known a warm, giving sun, but the next will suffer a sun that is less giving’
    http://dailycaller.com/2014/03/24/polar-vortex-or-ice-age/