Antarctic Sea Ice Blows Away Records In April

Posted: May 6, 2014 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

s_extn

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/index.html

Antarctic sea ice continues to set new records, with extent in April at the highest since measurements began in 1979.

s_plot

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/index.html

Ice extent has also been above last year’s already high levels for most of this year.

S_stddev_timeseries_thumb

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/index.html

Meanwhile, both GISS surface and UAH satellite datasets show the Antarctic has been much colder than usual recently.

nmaps

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?sat=4&sst=3&type=anoms&mean_gen=03&year1=2014&year2=2014&base1=1981&base2=2010&radius=1200&pol=rob

MARCH-2014

http://nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2014/march/MARCH-2014.jpg

Finally, global sea ice area remains well above average.

global.daily.ice.area.withtrend

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg

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Comments
  1. ren says:

    Let’s see what the situation is in the stratosphere over the southern polar circle.
    Can be seen blocking the polar vortex in the zone strong of ionization GCR (20 km).

  2. vukcevic says:

    As I commented in ‘Arctic ice’ thread on WUWT:
    Professing ignorance of many of the Arctic ice issues, I compared periodicity of Earth’s magnetic filed to numerous temperature records and indices.
    Only the Arctic temperature came up with its two major components near equal in periods and intensity with the EMF’s major two.
    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/ATvsGMF.htm
    Two ‘contributing’ factors; magnetic pole of course, and the crack in the Earth’s crust, peppered with submarine vents and volcanoes, all the way from Iceland to the other side of the Beaufort Sea.
    Coincidence is likely, but need to know of another climate data periodiogram matching the above before I write it off. Anyone?
    …….disappointingly : no AMO, no SSN; while for the noise not a clone but sort of a look alike.

  3. p.g.sharrow says:

    @vukcevic;Interesting graph but a bit confusing. noise? and the bottom axes years? 2 through 18 or 160 years?
    I have been pointing out for sometime that the magnetic fields have effects on both the earth and it’s atmosphere. As the magnetic field strength decreases in the north, the Earth’s oblateness will decrease. The surface north will hump up rounder south of the Arctic Circle, more geothermal heat released as magma rises. In the south, north of the Antarctic Circle the surface will lower as the under lying magma retreats, geothermal heating is reduced. The atmosphere also expands or retreats as the fields change in strength and polarity. As you well know the earth’s fields are a composite average of the local fields. As Stephen Wilde points out, the local surface temperature is effected by density and thickness of the atmosphere above.
    I see no reason that the see/saw of polar ice can not have a magnetic component.
    The overall increase in total Earth ice is a good proxy for loss of energy in the system and bodes cold climate changes headed our way. pg

  4. ren says:

    Vukcevic, it is interesting that the average temperature is normal.

    See still at the vortex of 10 hPa.

  5. ren says:

    It is worth now follow the cosmic radiation at the South Pole. Number of sunspot 130, but less active.
    http://neutronm.bartol.udel.edu/realtime/southpole.html

  6. vukcevic says:

    Hi PG
    Thanks for the comment; sorry about ambiguity, the periodiogram is intentionally limited below the solar magnetic cycle. ‘Noise’ label is on the account of scarcity of the early Arctic data and a nearly flat spectrum below the green line

  7. For those of us new to magnetic field strength Not geology trained?
    Is there a link to a time series to view the magnetic field over say since 1900 ( for both hemispheres?)
    thanks
    and a link to explain just exactly what it is?

    Is there also an Index of volcanic activity . I assume volcanic activity, land or ocean correlates with magnetic field strength
    As magnetic field strength decreases or increases there is contortions to the fault lines?
    Heat from underground fissures for the oceans and cooling from sulphur dioxide emissions in the atmosphere?
    I assume ‘sparrow’ the contention is.. Magnetic field strength has reduced the geothermal underground heat near the Antartic?

    What about Antartic land ice? I believe this land ice is not undergoing the same increase but is actually trending downward. Is this true?

  8. tallbloke says:

    Ren: Good point. Sunspot count doesn’t seem to be a very good proxy for overall activity during cycle 24 max.

  9. oldbrew says:

    Possible clue here?

    ‘The number of sunspots alone does not alter the overall solar emissions much at all. However, the increased/decreased magnetic activity which accompanies sunspot maxima/minima directly influences the amount of ultraviolet radiation which moves through the upper atmosphere.’
    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/fsd/?n=sunspots

  10. …….disappointingly : no AMO, no SSN; while for the noise not a clone but sort of a look alike

    That is not true at all. The AMO /Arctic Sea Ice correlation is quite strong.

  11. Veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi has been telling us for years that the Arctic sea ice extent is driven in large part by the AMO and that today’s low Arctic sea ice levels are directly linked to the currently positive (warm) AMO. If the warm AMO has an impact on Antarctic sea ice, why wouldn’t it have an impact on the Arctic, which is directly next door? Once again the scientists are only realizing (admitting) what has been obvious to skeptics for a decade now. – See more at: http://notrickszone.com/2014/05/02/spiegel-on-antaractic-sea-ice-never-before-has-there-been-so-much-ice-at-this-time-of-year-since-meaurements-began/#sthash.GTMm12XI.dpuf

    Exactly correct and Weatherbell Inc. has produced the data to back up what they say about this topic.

    NO QUESTION ABOUT IT.

  12. Ren , Weather Cycles, and others this article I just posted you should all find very informative and interesting.

  13. I say sunspot counts are al subjective and probably due to technology give a higher number today then if done with technology of the past.

    I think the AP INDEX /SOLAR FLUX values are much more representative of what is happening.

  14. Space and Science Research Center
    P.O. Box 607841
    Orlando FL 32860
    Sun’s Activity Linked to Largest
    Earthquakes and Volcanoes
    Press Release – SSRC 1-2010
    8:00 AM March 1, 2010
    Today, the Space and Science Research Center (SSRC) releases its preliminary findings of the incidence of major geophysical events including earthquakes and volcanoes tied to the Sun’s activity and climate change.
    The SSRC, the leading independent research center in the United States on the subject of the next climate change to a period of extended cold weather, has concluded a detailed comparison of solar activity with major earthquakes and volcanic activity. It has found a significant correlation exists between periods of reduced activity by the Sun, previously linked to cold climates are now identified with the most disastrous earthquakes in the United States and major volcanic eruptions around the globe.
    The research for this preliminary study was completed in September 2009. The research report was posted today on the SSRC’s web site. It establishes a strong link between what the Sun is doing and the largest natural disasters and significantly extends the potential impact on the Earth of changes in the Sun which the SSRC and others have established as the most important element of global climate change.
    According to SSRC Director, John Casey, “ The wide range and depth of research done by the SSRC and its associated scientists over the years on the Sun’s activity for determining impacts on the Earth’s climate change has produced what may be another important revelation of how the Sun may affect the Earth. Not only is the Sun the primary driver for climate change, but it may even be a significant influence in tectonic plate movement resulting in cycles of increased intensity of geological events such as earthquakes and volcanoes.
    The recent earthquakes in Haiti and Chile though not part of the original study are nonetheless in line with reduced periods of solar activity and are especially correlated to the advent of the current “solar hibernation.” These “hibernations,’ a term coined by the SSRC in 2008, are the times when the Sun reduces its level of energetic output to historically low levels, roughly every two centuries. As we know from the ample research of other solar physicists world-wide and the SSRC’s own work, solar hibernations always bring long lasting cold climate eras to the Earth.”
    Casey added, “It now appears these reduced activity periods of the Sun that bring us cold climates could bring much more. We may have found another tool for predicting the onset of greatly increased geophysical activity by following the same cycles of the Sun just as we can to predict climate change. The next hibernation has begun as a component of a repeating 206 year cycle of the Sun, the same cycle that brought us the past decades of global warming. This new research by the SSRC strongly suggests we should expect and plan on a new round of historically large US earthquakes and globally impacting volcanic eruptions that can occur at any time for the next 20 years of the current solar hibernation. I expect when the final version of this study is done we will be able to fine tune these conclusions even further.”
    The preliminary research report titled “Correlation of Solar Activity Minimums and Large Magnitude Geophysical Events,” SSRC Research Report 1-2010, is available at the SSRC web site, http://www.spaceandscience.net.

    I AGREE WITH THIS STUDY. IN ADDITION DATA SUPPORT IT .

  15. p.g.sharrow says:

    weathercycles says:”What about Antartic land ice? I believe this land ice is not undergoing the same increase but is actually trending downward. Is this true?”

    From what I have read the interior ice cover is reducing as the ultra dry and cold area is a desert where the snow evaporates or sublimates directly without melting. Too cold for snow!. Snow fall is greatest at near freezing temperatures. Sea Ice is caused by COLD, not snow, salt water melts snow.

    In the early days of the discovery of the Ozone Hole it was understood that the upper air of the Antarctic was too cold and dry for the necessary creation of O3 to maintain the levels of upper atmospheric Ozone. Then someone published a paper that chlorine could break down Ozone and “Man Caused Ozone Disaster” became the vogue. pg

  16. vukcevic says:

    Salvatore Del Prete says:
    May 7, 2014 at 4:47 pm

    (vukcevic) …..disappointingly : no AMO, no SSN; while for the noise not a clone but sort of a look alike

    That is not true at all. The AMO /Arctic Sea Ice correlation is quite strong.
    ……………………..
    Hi Salvatore, thank your for your comment on my finding .

    “In the AMO spectrum, a strong peak appears at frequency 0.11 ± 0.005 /yr, period 9.1 ± 0.4 years. Figure 7.” http://static.berkeleyearth.org/pdf/berkeley-earth-decadal-variations.pdf

    The 9.5 year component in theArctic temperature is a way down (about 5th in descending order) so is the 11 year Sunspot component.
    Indeed I found this disappointing, but I do report what I find, not what I would like to see in there.
    I was reporting on the Arctic temperatures spectrum, not the Arctic ice coverage, if you had that in mind, or is it some other variable ?
    As I started my comment with ‘Professing ignorance of many of the Arctic ice issues’ , I am willing to accept that Arctic ice may well do as you claim, but than I would like first to see the spectrum.

  17. ENSO. The pattern of fluctuations in Tavg from 1950 to 2010 reflects true
    climate variability, and is not an artifact of station sampling. A world map of
    temperature correlations shows that the association with AMO is broadly distributed
    and unidirectional.

    I WAS NOT REFERRING TO THE ABOVE IN MY COMMENTARY

  18. vukcevic says:

    Salvatore Del Prete says:
    May 7, 2014 at 5:31 pm
    …………… According to SSRC Director, John Casey ……….

    Extracts from J. Casey’s email

    Thanks again for your charts and formula for the solar cycle that I found in my research a few years ago. With your kind permission these charts have been put into a book called “Cold Sun” that was sent to a publisher a week ago. It should be available within a couple of months.
    Could you please send me a CV/resume ….I will send you a signed copy when it is available
    Please don’t send these book comments to others until the book comes out.
    Best Regards,
    John
    *************************************************
    John Casey
    President
    Space and Science Research Corporation
    P.O. Box 607841
    Orlando, FL 32860
    Enter your comment here…

  19. vukcevic says:

    “Enter your comment here”… is not part of the email, but remnant from the ‘ Leave a Reply’ box at the bottom of this thread page.

  20. @ Ren & Vuckevic

    On the extreme geophysics events and the deep solar minima.
    The solar system electric circuit.

    http://michelecasati.altervista.org/index.html

    Bye,
    Mic

  21. John Casey
    President
    Space and Science Research Corporation
    P.O. Box 607841
    Orlando, FL 32860
    Enter your comment here…

    I think John Casey is on the correct path.

  22. SDP said
    “I think John Casey is on the correct path.”

    I agree Salvatore!

    Thanks for the links you provided

    Re Casey:..200 yr cycle is a big one

    These researchers agree.THey identify constructive interference 4 harmonic cycles since about 1996-2006
    and predict a [period of cooling

    QIAN et al ( 2010)RE: key oscillations .

    Periodic oscillations in millennial global-mean temperature and their causes
    QIAN WeiHong& LU Bo
    Monsoon and Environment Research Group, School of
    Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
    Received May 20, 2010; accepted August 23, 2010

    http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1189956/all/Inter_decadal_climate_cycles_o

    So does the Antarctic follow both the quasi 60 yr and 200 yr oscillation. ?
    Not much info’ on the SH during the Dalton/Maunder period
    ————————————————————————

    Thanks ‘sparrow’ for your answer re: Antartic land mass. Makes sense

  23. Solar particles generally do not reach the bottom of the atmosphere, in contrast to the GCR, which generally have a much higher energy. Only then can overcome the Earth’s magnetic field. I’m talking about protons and electrons.
    Only the solar wind magnetic field may fold GCR successfully from Earth. When solar activity falls field is much weaker.

    REN SAYS ABOVE.

    Then it is logical the weaker the magnetic field is of the earth the easier GCR will be able to over come the magnetic field of the earth.

    In addition they will be directed where the magnetic field of the earth is strongest, so if the magnetic poles have an excursion to lower latitudes the highest concentrations of GCR would also be directed there.

  24. REN, avg. cosmic ray count 6178.03 from apr.08-may08 not high enough in my opinion to have an appreciable effect on clouds increasing.

    Need 6500 or higher in my opinion.

  25. ren says:

    Such was the map of ozone on May 1, 2014.

    Such was the map of ozone on May 10, 2009.

  26. ren says:

    I recall a magnetic field.

  27. weathercycles says:

    I think you can see the polar see saw on this graph by Roger Andrews
    He has graphed the 60 yr cycle by latitude (nice work!!)

    Note the effect is stronger in the NH
    BUT
    note that the Arctic and Antarctic are generally out of phase

    source
    comments section
    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2013/04/15/roger-andrews-a-new-climate-index-the-northern-multidecadal-oscillation/

  28. He has graphed the 60 yr cycle by latitude (nice work!!)

    Note the effect is stronger in the NH

    As is to be expected due to the geographical differences between the two hemispheres..

  29. ren says:

    Here you can see how to create a blockages in the region of ​​the magnetic pole at 10 hPa.

  30. as the sun goes deeper into a prolonged minimum state—expect much more blocking.

  31. ren says:

    Sometimes I read that in the south not often comes to blocking circulation. Is it really?