Solar periodic instability

Posted: May 19, 2014 by tchannon in Analysis, Solar physics

The Talkshop likes to occassionally discuss the mystery of solar periodic timing, is it regular, chaotic, or some as yet undiscovered formula?

Image

Figure 1

A simple decomposition of the annual sunspot number, three terms, was done for the period 1855 to 2005 inclusive, a period that seems reasonably consistent in characteristic. r2 = 0.81 for that timespan. See Figure 1.

This is a non-discrete Fourier decomposition therefore it can be re based to any time and a new time series created, figure 1 shows this done from 1700.5, the start of the SIDC annual data. In effect a hind-cast but also a slight forecast since it seems the sun is once again erratic.

Bespoke software here produces the core of this, which is then externally extended and plotted.

Image

Figure 2

The final sum.

Image

Figure 3

Referring back to figure 1, prior to about 1855 there is phase instability, a large change in amplitude. There appears to be close to phase reversal relative to the later time.

One of life’s mysteries.

This says nothing about the true solar cycle which is not optical but magnetic and therefore as a dynamic field is also electrical. The sun is to a large part in a plasma state, conductive.

In the past I have noticed characteristics of chaotic oscillators, a matter for another time. As peculiar is the elephant in orbit, Jupiter, timing itself precisely but the sun has a similar major period. People try but I think no satisfactory explanation has appeared if plenty of interesting ones.

As a final comment I point out that marginal stability is a technique used to great effect in technical design, a way of achieving extreme sensitivity to tiny entities [1]. Perhaps the sun is more sensitive than simple theory in solar physics assumes. In consequence what are often assumed too small to have any rational effect are able to do more. There is support for this in the theory of solar sensitivity to prior states. (maybe someone can dig out the papers)

Post by Tim

 

1. A simple example is the super-regenerative radio receiver.

Radio amateur paper

http://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/9811qex026.pdf

NMR (Nuclear Magnetic Resonance), MRI and other things have in the past or do use this effect. Can’t find any suitable papers or articles making this clear.

2. No data supplied. Software used is unpublished, C source would not go down well with many anyway. (can be mimicked) If you need the output, could do a spreadsheet.

Data Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussel

Comments
  1. According to solar cycle strength the period from 1890-1910 should have been the least active period of solar activity since the Maunder Minimum, unless the 1450 year solar cycle and the 116 year solar cycle off set the shorter cycles minimum levels around that time frame.

    The chart (which Weather Cycles sent) shows clearly the 194 year solar cycle and the 62.5 year solar cycle both to be PEAKING at the time of the Dalton Solar Minimum, while around 1900 these same cycles were at or near minimum levels, yet the Dalton Solar Minimum was less active then the period 1890-1910.

    THIS DOES NOT RECONCILE.

    I conclude that in addition to solar cycles ,solar internal dynamics probably play a role in solar variability. Evidence of this is the sudden drop in solar activity during the year 2005. The sun suddenly shifted gears that year. It was not solar cycles per say that caused this in my opinion, although they may have contributed. In addition many other sun like stars exhibit Maunder Minimum Periods.

    The longer solar cycles in my opinion being to slow to change over a period of LESS then 100 years to contribute in such a way which would result in the Dalton Solar Minimum being less active then the solar period 1890-1910.

    NOTE: Why if longer solar cycles (presently in an upswing) were the cause of the solar quiet period from 1890-1910 to be LESS severe then the Dalton Solar Minimum are these same longer solar cycles (which are still on an upswing) NOT going to have the same effects going forward?

    Apparently the thinking is they are NOT going to have the same effects since many solar predictions are for Dalton Solar conditions or even quieter solar conditions to return over the next 20 to 30 years.

    This solar cycle theory just does not hold up to the degree some are trying to convey in my opinion. Something else is affecting the sun besides just solar system dynamics.

  2. GEOFF’S reply to me. Makes much sense. .

    REPLY: A lot of wrong assumptions perhaps.

    There is enough variability in the solar orbit to explain all variations in solar output. Remember there are two forces, the modulation of AM and the disruption caused by the AMP event. Nothing else is required.

    There are no distinct repeating cycles in solar activity in relation to grand minima. This is the key issue that Willis and the majority of commenters on the Talkshop are missing. McCracken et al are aware of this so the message is not totally lost. Adhering to strict cycles will always bring you undone, the solar system does not follow these rules.

    The Sun entered the disordered orbit in 2005.

    Around 1900 is just low AM caused by U/N being opposed, this is not a grand minimum and is the bottom of the Gleissberg quasi cycle….quasi as in being very variable.

    The moon is not capable of affecting Solar output. The orbit shape changes to insolation override solar grand minima etc, the Younger Dryas is most likely a comet impact or Earth driven climate event.

  3. That reply can be found on the message board of the Layman Sunspot Site. Excellent reply cleared some things up for me.

  4. Ian Wilson says:

    Salvatore said: The moon is not capable of affecting Solar output.

    Agreed but what if the Moon is synchronized with a possible factor that could effect solar output i.e. the planetary orbit?

  5. oldbrew says:

    I. Charvátová and P. Hejda attempt to shed some light on the ‘mystery’.

    ‘Solar inertial motion is computable in advance’
    http://www.pattern-recogn-phys.net/2/21/2014/prp-2-21-2014.pdf

  6. ren says:

    Sorry.
    Vukcevic expressions of sympathy because of the floods in Serbia. Jet stream descends far to the south in the Atlantic.

  7. tchannon says:

    What I have shown is both simple and a good machine match with a small residual where the residual has no obvious or readily found structure. Is noise-like.

    Some time ago I looked carefully at solar motion claims including Charvátová’s work. I was not convinced so whilst the idea is attractive it seems to lack precision given the solar motion is known somewhat precisely and is mechanical.

    So this seems to be saying the sun sometimes acts one way and sometime another but without a tight match to anything definite.

  8. TC says
    The Talkshop likes to occasionally discuss the mystery of solar periodic timing, is it regular, chaotic, or some as yet undiscovered formula?

    Arguing for the regular periodic timing here

    Here are some good findings that support the order hypothesis

    ———————
    I was fascinated by Vukcevic fast sun _ slow sun model that looks like a flower with 9 petals
    Although hard to find 9 petal flowers

    Thought l would investigate Vukcevics fast sun/ slow sun model and overlay what l have learnt about the schwabe triplet cycles and lunar declination

    THE RESULTS are GOOD

    Fast sun has shorter schwabe cycle lengths and lower amplitude and slow sun has longer schwabe cycle lengths and higher amplitude
    No surprise.

    But the NICE surprise is .The schwabe triplets and the lunar declination cycle , fits snuggly +/- a couple of years

    https://picasaweb.google.com/110600540172511797362/SOLARSYSTEMAndClimate#6015491995579189778

  9. Angiras says:

    For those willing to expand their ‘envelope’, go to
    manvantura.wordpress.com and search for “Kreutz ‘Comets’ From Jupiter Jet Cause Sunspots”. You will not find this in any textbook.

  10. tchannon says:

    The sungrazers. http://sungrazer.nrl.navy.mil/index.php?p=sungrazers

    Disagreeing is fine. The flare connection has been discussed on the Talkshop.

  11. 13-CONCLUSION

    Evidences indicating that important climatic features, such as droughts and unusually growing seasons, are dependent on the solar cycle to such an extent that significant progress could be made in forecasting the occurrence of such features if some account were taken of the expected levels of solar activity in the future (King 1973).

    When thinking about climate change on time scale of decades to centuries, it is important to recognize the dominant effect of the oceans, which cover over 70% of the planet’s surface, and are largely responsible for the transport of heat from low to middle and high latitudes, particularly during the winter season. For a mechanism to be viable as Sun-climate link, it should be capable of explaining the SST variation of the kind illustrated in Fig 13, occurring with the same magnitude and direction in all of the Earth’s ocean basins.

    In a press release (2000) on “The sun’s influence is an important factor in global climate change” drawn by scientists from around the world in July 1999 in Bern; realizing that the variability of the solar radiation is an important factor affecting the climate of the earth. Several proposed mechanisms have been discussed extensively:
    – Total irradiance; larger irradiance changes are expected on time scales larger than 11 years cycle.
    – Solar magnetic fields: During periods of high solar activity, the increased solar magnetic
    fields enhances the shielding of cosmic rays. It is postulated , based on empirical
    correlations, that less cosmic rays reduce the global cloud cover and therefore increases the temperature.
    – UV flux: The changes in UV flux are much higher (more than 10 times ) than the changes
    of the total solar irradiance in the upper atmosphere. Both absorption and enhanced
    S. M. Yousef / ICEHM2000, Cairo University, Egypt, September, 2000, page 267- 293
    290

    production of ozone lead to a temperature change of the stratosphere and therefore also to
    its dynamics. The coupling to the stratosphere and troposphere dynamics could lead to
    changes in tropospheric wind regimes and thus lead to temperature changes at the Earth’s temperature.

    Since the solar magnetic fields, solar cosmic rays UV , x-rays and definitely solar irradiance all show Wolf- Gleissberg cycles, then all of these solar parameters work collectively, each in a different part and heights of the earth’s atmosphere with the net result of solar forcing inducing variable long term terrestrial responses of the order of the Wolf-Gleissberg cycles.

    One positive conclusion of this review is discovering that climate fluctuations manifested by sharp rises or falls of lakes or closed sea levels, reversals of the sign of solar terrestrial responses, sharp amamolies of temperature, whether on air or sea surface temperatures, droughts and flood hazards, changes in the general wind circulation etc do coincide with the turning points of Wolf-Gleissberg cycles. Those long-term solar cycles can be described by polynomials of the tenth order( Yousef 1998).

    From the solar physics point of view, what happens at those turning points? The answer is related to the acceleration or retardation in the daily rotation rates of the solar photosphere during the time of the turning points, start, maximum and termination. Variation in a solar rotation rate may be indicators of changes in solar luminosity due to the coupling between convection and rotation (Hoyt and Schatten 1997). Acceleration of the rotation rate occur during the intermediate interval in between successive Wolf-Gleissberg cycles occupied by low amplitude long duration solar cycles. Some how, this acceleration lead to drop in solar irradiance. One point of argument ,is that cyclic solar forcing to terrestrial precipitation particularly near the equator do occur with the second and the following weak solar cycles which persist till sharp retardation of the photospheric rotation rates occur leading to another climate fluctuation indicated by reversal or cease of correlation. At the maximum of the Solar Wolf-Gleissberg cycle, acceleration of the photosphere do occur. Thus it seems very important that the acceleration or deceleration of the convection zone plays a major role in modulating the magnetic activity of the sun. It is logical to assume that similar acceleration and deceleration extend to the other
    layers of the solar atmosphere, e.g. modulating the magnetic energy and the temperature in the corona resulting in X ray and UV following the same pattern of the Wolf-Gleissberg cycles.

    Solar terrestrial stimuli is very important in weather and climate forecasting. It may well be, in another decade or so that extended forecasting will be unthinkable without consideration of solar activity(Roberts 1976).

    It seems that the time has come for this extending forecast based on prediction of solar activity.

    Yousef(1995a) predicted a low amplitude level of cycle 23 and the following cycles This will lead to drops in solar irradiance, UV, X-ray, Solar cosmic rays, weakening of interplanetary magnetic fields etc similar to the Dalton’s drop of solar activity around 1800 and the following drop around 1900 AD. . As a consequence, global temperature drop during the next few decades are to be expected. Indeed, a climate fluctuation did occur in 1997 as manifested by the sudden rise of lake Victoria. It is forecasted that by the decline of cycle 23 , reduction of precipitation will result in African Equatorial region with a considerable drop in the Lakes levels , while a considerable rise in precipitation will occur in the middle east ending the drought conditions that prevailed for several years
    in the area. Thus it is expected that considerable rise in the dead sea level is to be expected. There is thus no need to join the dead sea with the Mediterranean sea according to the Israeli plan or to the Red Sea according to the Jordanian plan. In the case of the American Great lakes which at present induce considerable concern about its falling down, it is anticipated that drought condition will continue till the end of solar cycle 23 around 2009.

    Since El Nino frequency is solar Wolf-Gleissberg cycle modulated ,and since on one hand during weak cycles, enhancement of El Nino frequency do, while on the other hand., sea surface temperature drop, then we must postulate increment is La Ninas strength and frequency in order to compensate El Nino heating effects. Since both the pair of the Nios cause drought-flood hazards, then worldwide droughtflood hazards are to be expected.

    Due to the 200 years solar and terrestrial cyclicity, then the present drop of activity will induce El Nino- frequencies similar to those around 1800. In that case , from fig 14, the frequency of El Nino will be increasing during the first half of the weak solar cycles duration causing frequent low Nile floods and Sahelenian droughts, while during the second half of the period , La Nina events will be more frequent causing more destructive Nile floods as was the case for Nile floods around the 1800 AD drop of solar activity. Alert is renewed to the Egyptian governments and other Sahelnian governments and God knows best.

    S. M. Yousef / ICEHM2000, Cairo University, Egypt, September, 2000, page 267- 293

    291
    for support.

    [mod: reformatted by hand. Extensive copy and paste tends to go wrong and might be deleted over copyright issues. Will contributors please minimise long texts and link to originals content as necessary. –Tim]

  12. tchannon says:

    The feature I am highlighting weathercycles is surprisingly fixed.

    The software is doing multidimensional optimisation for best figure of merit, in this case not correlation, usually a poor arbiter or that is my experience over many years with this kind of technique. The interesting answers are usually the simplest, which means making no attempt to account for everything.

    Usually when people look at sunspot data the whole thing is considered, with the usual results.

    The previous 150 years rapidly flows into dubious data.

    What Vuk (and you) are showing doesn’t match the result here. Lets wait and see if Vuk turns up, there are dire troubles in the Balkans.

  13. jim says:

    Okay, couldn’t follow some of the arguments, beyond me for my years. But loved he graphs. Did notice some interesting long low cycles, in the 1810/1910/2010 areas. Whats up? Multi point low distribution, just over the 96 year occurances? or just time of day and it looked neat? I’ll have to overlay some of the graphics you have there and see if they align to some neat optical illusions.
    Bt yo still have me on a nine leaf flower. Gotta look that one p.

  14. Paul Vaughan says:

    oldbrew (May 20, 2014 at 1:31 pm) wrote:

    “Ian Wilson’s comments are relevant here.

    http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com.au/2013/07/is-this-planetary-signature-in-our.html

    I’ve been working on that problem. I’ve left a related comment here (Mann/AMO discussion).

    Tim’s post is timely.

  15. oldbrew says:

    Interesting Wikipedia graphic with the caption:
    ‘Diagram showing how a planet and a star orbit their common center of mass (red cross).’

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exoplanet#Orbital_parameters

    As an aside – the link also says:
    ‘The prevalence of elliptical orbits for giant planets is a major puzzle, because current theories of planetary formation strongly suggest planets should form with circular (that is, non-eccentric) orbits.’

    Observation strongly suggests they are missing something 😉

  16. JIM said
    “Did notice some interesting long low cycles, in the 1810/1910/2010 areas. Whats up? Multi point low distribution, just over the 96 year occurrences?”
    Yes JIM. I agree. I missed that
    a 95-110yr cycle ( min/max/min) reoccurs in that graph l posted. from (~1700-1810 = 110yr)( 1810-1913= 103 yr)(1913-2010= 97 yr) .
    It looks like a solar amplitude cycle .It starts at a minimum in solar amplitude reaches a peak and then returns to a minimum at the end of the cycle ..NICE find there
    It is occurring in both the fast and slow sun phases.

    It length persists regardless of a fast or slow sun phase of a fast or slow sun cycle.. or maybe it is shorter in the fast sun phase

    The commencement and terminaytion of the cycles l have noticed . ALWAYS commence at a minimum .
    Minimum of schwabe, and ~100 yr in this case as well

    https://picasaweb.google.com/110600540172511797362/SOLARSYSTEMAndClimate#6015491995579189778

    Maybe l will post a diagram of that tomorrow.
    JIM’S 100 yr solar amplitude cycle.

  17. MORE EVIDENCE OF ORDER IN SOLAR ACTIVITY
    Thanks for the link ‘OB’

    http://www.ips.gov.au/Educational/3/1/4

    Find posted..The analysis copied from ‘my place/blog tonight… after interrogating Richards discussion at the base of his graph
    —————————————————-
    “oldbrew’ from Tallbloke got me thinking again with his wonderful links to stir the brain

    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2014/05/19/solar-periodic-instability/comment-page-1/#comment-78607

    I was reading this link OB posted
    http://www.ips.gov.au/Educational/3/1/4

    I noticed the writer Richard Thompson points out that there are double dips or deep troughs in the geomagnetic (aa) level at some cycles

    quote
    “Activity during Cycle 21 was particularly strange because of the deep trough in the middle of the cycle where the average aa index in fact dropped below its value at the previous minimum. Cycles 9, 12 and 18 also have deep troughs but not as pronounced as that for Cycle 21.”

    So.. Thought l would see where they fall in the Schwabe triplet sequence that l am researching currently
    http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/2014/05/15/schwabbe-triplets-and-earths-climate/
    .

    To my surprise there is a regularity with Double dips/ Maximums in 5/6 of the schwabe triplet cycles since 1840 and they are found in the FIRST schwabe cycle of the triplet

    DOUBLE DIPS in the Schwabe Solar Cycle linked to the Commencement of the SCHWABE TRIPLET SEQUENCE

    Here is the diagram which speaks for itself
    Note that you can predict that it is highly likely that a double dip in the solar cycle 24 as solar cycle 24 is the start of a new schwabe triplet

    and is the case CURRENTLY !!

    NICE!!!!

    https://picasaweb.google.com/110600540172511797362/TIMESERIESAndTrends#6015857263156992738

    CYCLES RULE !!!

  18. Steve C says:

    Thanks for the link to the ARRL article about regen receivers! Ye Gods, I haven’t built one for nearly half a century, but I may have to “scratch the itch” again now I’ve read that. Great fun.

  19. tchannon says:

    I am very tied up again on imperative non-blog issues so I can only do quick things. (any UK legal folks around?)

  20. AJB says:

    Hysteretic. Essentially chaotic but with modulation that gives the appearance of approximately regular cycles. Hence psuedo-cyclic, a nebulous term. Everything in nature is psuedo-cyclic if measured precisely enough, there is no such thing as a pure sine wave except as a mathematical construct. It’s all a question of scale and precision.

  21. tchannon says:

    Yep, this subject comes around cycles.

    Free running chaotic oscillator or semi-synchronised?

    In the latter case this is amenable to exploration as a simulation if sufficient can be figured out.

    In addition and a long interest of mine is the effect of noise on quantised systems. Chaotic systems tend to quantised, perhaps being pseudo-stable without noise.

  22. Thanks OB for another excellent lead.
    Really appreciate . Your links have been very fruitful for my studies
    ———————
    Some more amazing results after reading Ian wilsons post you recommended
    link
    http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com.au/2013/07/is-this-planetary-signature-in-our.html

    Now Ian correlates a DUO schwabbe with the North pacific index
    He had some nice years marked that delineated his cycles
    He also noted embedding / nesting of cycles to produce the multiple larger cycle

    He was able to show the correlation of Jupiter / Saturn conjunction/opposition within this cycle
    —–

    I thought l would take his duo schwabe cycle ( Hale) and overlay with the schwabe triplet cycle l have been researching .
    The results are spectacular.!!

    Where the duo and triplet schwabe cycles coincide at intervals of 6 schwabe . These points in time correlate definitively with the global temperature cycle (~ 32yr phase/cycle/AMO )

    For example: the maximum peak in 2005-2008 of global temp is the starting point of a NEW DUO schwabe and a NEW TRIPLET schwabe cycle .
    This point of common intersection ALWAYS occurs at the global temp/AMO ~66yr max peak

    There is no doubt that the global temperature cycle is in resonance with the schwabe multiple nested cycle complex which is also in resonance with planetary dynamics.

    Personally l am happily gobsmacked !
    Take some time looking and understanding this
    from link provided

    https://picasaweb.google.com/110600540172511797362/TIMESERIESAndTrends#6016220607467163058

    ( here is the global temp cycle l marked on that table

    by ‘surly bond’
    thanks surly !.. http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1189956/2 )

  23. oldbrew says:

    Planetary dynamics are quite well understood these days, as NASA space missions demonstrate.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravity_assist

    This file shows how near-Earth asteroid Cruithne behaves in its 385 year cycle – it’s quite intricate but they pretty much know how it works.
    http://www.astro.uwo.ca/~wiegert/3753/3753.html

  24. As Geoff Sharp correctly implies you need the disruptive force combined with AM to give grand solar minimums and climate impacts. Cycles alone without the disruptive force in place will not accomplish this.

  25. I thought l would take his duo schwabe cycle ( Hale) and overlay with the schwabe triplet cycle l have been researching .
    The results are spectacular.

    So Weather Cycles given this is so , show me in hind cast(not a forecast but in hind cast which is much easier to do) how this can be applied to abrupt global temp. changes in the past. Such as the 8200 year ago cold period and the start and ending of the Younger Dryas to name a few.

  26. oldbrew says:

    More argy-bargy about the Younger Dryas here. A recent paper says it wasn’t an impact but seems hazy on alternative ideas.

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/05/13/what-caused-a-1300-year-deep-freeze-12800-years-ago-new-pnas-paper-says-it-wasnt-an-impact/

    As one commenter points out:
    ‘Did no one else think it strange that, according to the labelling on the headline graph, present day global warming appears to be colder than the little ice age?’

    WUWT didn’t notice that one – or agreed with it?

    Another commenter blames the bi-polar seesaw (with pdf links):
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/05/13/what-caused-a-1300-year-deep-freeze-12800-years-ago-new-pnas-paper-says-it-wasnt-an-impact/#comment-1635618

  27. Gail Combs says:

    comment to Tim the moderator: {Extensive copy and paste tends to go wrong and might be deleted over copyright issues. Will contributors please minimise long texts and link to originals content as necessary. –Tim}

    This is a snippet from a book that may not be available on the internet and therefore can not be linked. [S. M. Yousef / ICEHM2000, Cairo University, Egypt, September, 2000, page 267- 293]

    In such cases I for one am very happy to see the snippet as long as where it came from is noted. In some cases I was interested enough to go out and buy the book!

    So a thank you to Salvatore Del Prete.

    (I do not comment here often but I do read.)

  28. SP says
    “As Geoff Sharp correctly implies you need the disruptive force combined with AM to give grand solar minimums and climate impacts. Cycles alone without the disruptive force in place will not accomplish this.”

    I have great regard for Geoff Sharpe’s work Salvatore and in fact l noticed you had some research published which l will get to read
    As far as l can tell from his site. The barycentre geometry is linked closely to cycles
    His major emphasis is the Neptune/Uranus couplet
    ———————————————————

    The net forces create the cycles ( periods of order and disorder). The cycles do not create the forces as such but the cycle signature often tells a story of combined forces. Constructive or destructive vectors

    As for the Younger Dryas period SP. I have already given my opinion in a recent discussion with you
    my view..Constructive or destructive interference

    A number of cycles overlayed in a time series will produce a saw tooth wave pattern

    The cycles analogous to net force vectors. If all cycle phases that contribute to global cooling align in a specific time period the net result is a steep cooling gradient.

    I noticed that Geoff Sharpe has the upcoming Landcheidt minimum ( 200yr cycle)warmer than the last minimum
    That surprised me

    .

  29. As promise ‘JIM’. I have taken your observation seriously
    I plotted that tonight as best as l could. Not knowing if l were looking at a 9 * schwabbe = 99 yr cycle or a 10* schwabe cycle = 108 yr mean

    I chose the 10 schwabe as it seemed to fit better by eyeball viewing anyway

    Here are the results from your obs’
    ENTER HERE
    https://picasaweb.google.com/110600540172511797362/TIMESERIESAndTrends#6016583234843255026

    If this is the Gleissburg cycle it is a bit long by definition. So not sure about this.

    I would describe this as a solar amplitude cycle
    It is probably 10 * schwabe = mean = 108 yr
    ————————————————————————
    Here is some notes l took while looking at the graph

    What is evident in this cycle is the trough peak trough in solar amplitude ( an appearance of a hill)
    over ~100 yr time period
    In this case the range was 115 yrs from cycle 5-14 (1798-1913)
    and 107 years from cycle 15-24(1913 – ~2019)

    87 years (70–100 years): Gleissberg cycle, named after Wolfgang Gleißberg, is thought to be an amplitude modulation of the 11-year Schwabe Cycle (Sonnett and Finney, 1990),[30] Braun, et al., (2005).[31]
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_variation

    If you were looking at planetary influences for the cause of this solar amplitude cycle. This diagram is useful for some possible start and end dates of the cycle

    In relation to my study of the schwabe triplet cycle and now the duo ,trio and 10 schwabe cycle .
    The 10 schwabe/gleissburg? commenced at the same time as the schwabe triplet that finished at minimum in
    1913
    This was the base minimum of a schwabe triplet and also so close to minimum in the ~66 yr global temp cycle in 1909 , also in minimum phase

    I feel the timing of this 100yr cycle can be correlated with global temp trends of the AMO/PDO type
    There appears to be a likely connection with 4 phases of the AMO/PDO hence global temp’ constrained within the 100 yr solar amplitude cycle +/- 5 yr

    I was interested in the dip in SC amplitude when the AMO reached a minimum in1975 .Also renowned as a point of climate shift

    Thanks for your observation JIM

    If you don’t understand my notes
    Look at the graph
    A picture says a thousand words

  30. TChannon .
    I wondered if you would enjoy this link re your interest in noise and signal processing
    http://www.statsoft.com/Textbook/Time-Series-Analysis#index

    I noted that your graph at the start of this post is cyclic in nature.no sign of chaos?
    Excuse my poor maths l didn’t understand how you got that.
    What exactly do the peaks and troughs represent?. 1825 peak arbitary?

    Would you get a different result if you commenced your data around 1909-1913

  31. oldbrew says:

    Another variable discussed: the solar wind.

    ‘Data Suggest That Solar Wind Impacts Global Temperature’
    http://notrickszone.com/2014/05/22/data-suggest-that-solar-wind-impacts-global-temperature/

  32. Looks interesting OB.

    Here is another newbie and its not paywalled

    If you are interested in the maths of time series analysis on temp trends and solar . There is plenty here

    http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/21/605/2014/npg-21-605-2014.html

    Their conclusion
    It appears that the natural variability of climate change in NC (north carolina)during 1950–2009 can be explained mostly by AMO and solar activity

    download link
    http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/21/605/2014/npg-21-605-2014.pdf.

  33. oldbrew says:

    Solar wind is part of Piers Corbyn’s weather prediction method.
    http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews14No19.pdf

  34. tchannon says:

    weathercycles, Statsoft are one of a number of statistical packagemakers intended for button pushers and usually sold to management. The manual is fine inasfaras it goes, are omissions and arguably errors when statistics tries to subsume signals as a field.

    I am very unusual these days in making my own specialist tools. There are various reasons. This includes knowing exactly what they do. I avoid ready rolled out of long experience, a lack of trust: putting time and money into a dead end is disastrous. Always something irresolvable turns up, what then?

    The figure at the head of this post is half solar data and half the output from a tool. That tool is unique, operates on the data as instructed and outputs a result for post processing by a spreadsheet, interacting, plotting etc.,

    The plot is a fixed pattern.

    This was created as follows: –

    Sunspot data from 1855 through 2005 was given to the software which was instructed to produce a simple best match it can discover under the given constraints to the data. A result is written out as an interactive (live) non-Discrete Fourier model. This is an alien beast to many today. All what people call data put into computers is Discrete, is as sample values at specific times.

    The model I output has no samples but instead it does have a reference time, literally 1855.5
    Output discrete times are literally free, within sensible bounds, irregular if you want, backwards, doesn’t care.

    After expansion to a whole working post processed I have recreated a Discrete dataset, what I call synthesized, in this case with datapoints at the same times as the original input data.

    As a party trick I change the starting time of the output to 1700.5 which matches the whole sunspot dataset. Effect is a set of data points the same as the sunspot data.

    Plot together and you have Figure 1.

    Now, if the input dataset was consistent and perfectly matched by the model there would be a good match all along.. It doesn’t.

    What it does do is allow eg. eyeballing how the data actually changes. No more than that.

    It is not possible to “match” all the sunspot data, long known. This is because either we don’t know how to construct a model or because the data is in some way literally random.

    Perhaps I could upload interactive versions where timeshifting can be done.

    I apologise for not being responsive, I really do have major problems here which are sucking all my energy.

  35. tchannon says:

    The FEA paper is pretty novel, interesting idea.

    I’m not convinced it means much, too many missing variables and self reference. Eg. is AMO related to solar? There are a zillion reasons for caution, such as station changes.

  36. If one matches the IMF strength versus temperature one wil find a very nice correlation.

  37. IMF strength ? what is IMF Salvatore?

    ‘googling gives a range of choices.
    http://acronyms.thefreedictionary.com/IMF
    .

    sorry to here your held up TC.Hope things pan out
    Maths is not my area so l pass

  38. oldbrew says:

    IMF: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interplanetary_magnetic_field

    ‘The speed of the slow solar wind affects the temperature of Earth’s upper atmosphere, and impacts climate.’
    http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn24851-sleepy-sun-thickens-the-slow-solar-wind.html

    ‘The underlying magnetic field is called the interplanetary magnetic field, and the resulting electric current forms part of the heliospheric current circuit.’
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heliospheric_current_sheet

  39. David A says:

    Willis recently did a post at WUWT on his search for a reflection of the 11 year solar cycle in the climate records. Christopher Monckton, Richard Courtney, myself, and others tried in vain to get Willis to consider the possibility that the ocean response to solar cycles may well take many successive decades of higher or lower solar cycles to fully manifest. For some reason Willis never addressed these thoughts, ignoring them almost entirely Indeed in the case of C.M. he instead picked some unrelated part of his post to counter.

    I offer below my last post, and the thought experiment at the end just to receive some broad minded responses to said thoughts. Thanks in advance.

    David A says:
    May 27, 2014 at 10:54 pm

    Regarding Willis Eschenbach says:
    May 27, 2014 at 12:08 pm
    ======================================
    I think Willis missed the implications (to the searched for 11 year cycle) of important observations regarding the seasonal changes. Willis correctly asserted that the earth spends less time when it is closest to the Sun in the SH summer. However the earth still rotates at the same rate. The difference in time has the affect of shortening the summer by two days, but each day is still 24 hours. During the ENTIRE S.H. summer, the earth is significantly COOLER despite the rate of energy input increasing from 1.321 kW/m² to 1.412 kW/m² at the closest approach to the Sun. (My earlier link showed insolation charts for both hemispheric summers.)

    How is this cogent to the 11 year solar cycle? Well if about 90 w/m2 INCREASED TOA insolation for several months is undetectable to the GAT, except in the fact that the GAT DROPS every time, then one might expect that a change of insolation of about 1 to 2 W/m2 over part of 11 years would likely be hard to detect. However, just as the much greater SH summer insolation fails to manifest as an increased GAT within the atmosphere, so might the highly active solar cycles SW energy bypass the atmosphere, and enter the long residence time oceans. It may take a 1/2 century or so of above active solar cycles, daily pouring their SW energy into the oceans, for the atmosphere to consistently register the heat energy that was pumped into the oceans for many thousands of successive days, 24 hours a day.

    Not all watts are equal. The WL is critical to the heating potential.

    1. Only two things can affect the energy content of any defined system in a radiative balance; either a change in input, or a change in some aspect of the residence time of the received energy.

    2. The residence time of the energies involved is determined by the WL of the input, and the materials encountered. (It is the materials encountered that produce the surprising bi-annual changes discussed)

    As an exercise in thinking about the above two laws please consider how differently the earth would respond if the SH summer had a TOA increase of 91 W/m² LWIR verses the total TSI spectrum. ( Some thoughts jump out. The ocean surface skin would absorb far more insolation, but the ocean depths. far less. The insolation would reach the atmosphere far quicker, but the residence time, and therefore heat capacity receiving that insolation would be far shorter, allowing much less accumulation.) I am certain other will have far more educated thoughts on this, but the lesson is in thinking about how all climate responses following the two laws.

  40. oldbrew says:

    Maybe a small point, but looking at the actual data there are NO 11 year cycles (none between 10.6 and 11.2 years), despite the fact that the mean of the last 350 years is 11.1 years.

    There are 3 of 11.3 years and 2 of 10.5 years.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_cycles

  41. Seeing you were open to a broad minded answer DA.

    I have seen evidence that their is no lag in global temp for the schwabe triplet cycle.( 3 * 10.8)
    A Schwabe triplet is one phase of the AMO/PDO/global temp cycle.

    I am talking about the phases of the global temperature cycle here ( the shorter ~33yr phases imbedded in longer term phases of 200 yr and longer)

    Regardless of the amplitude of each schwabe in the triplet , the timing of global temp shift remains at the same point. …. at the end/minimum of EVERY 3rd schwabe

    The global temperature oscillates, ALWAYS , at the point of the minimum trough of the last of the schwabe triplets.

    There are inflection points in the global temperature ~66yr cycle.
    There are inflection points in the milankovitch series as well
    Saw tooth, a switch, a flip flop, bi polar temp see -saw, call it what you will

    You can specify the month and year at which this inflection point occurs.

    An inflection point is an abrupt shift in the other direction

    How can this occur?
    taking one of your points……”.a change in input.”

    The only instantaneous cause and effect that l can think of that does not involve a lag of any kind is the Ideal gas laws

    PV=nRT

    Is the earth in a closed system?

    Change the pressure on the planet . Drop or increase the temp of the stratosphere?

    This would explain why more earth quakes in a cooling climate. As the stratosphere cools? the atmosphere shrinks changing volume and pressure and stresses on the solid component

    If heat leaves to space the pressure drops..?
    blah blah

    What ever the cause. I am convinced the global temp’ shifts instantaneously at the end of every 3rd schwabbe.
    and l am looking out for the cause

    I have noted that the position of Jupiter/ Saturn and Uranus /Neptune couplets are correlated to the schwabe triplet cycle

    Conjunction/ Opposition/Conjunction
    or
    Opposition/Conjunction/opposition

    It is worthwhile considering if the density of the quadrants of the solar system affect the pressure on earth. ( miles Mathis)That is my first line of inquiry
    cheers

  42. oldbrew says:

    Consider also the Schumann resonances?

    ‘The Schumann Resonances are quasi standing wave electromagnetic waves’
    http://image.gsfc.nasa.gov/poetry/ask/q768.html

  43. Interesting ‘oldbrew’

    Came across this comment when reading about schumann resonance here looking for some climate relations

    http://sedonanomalies.weebly.com/schumann-resonance.html

    “there is evidence the whole solar system is heating with the solar cycle”

    So. …Is the earths global warming systematic of solar system heating, across the board ?