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And then cooling from 1948-1976. Climate cycles anyone?
A real wake up call from 70 years ago! The Arctic was warming catastrophically, and was going to melt and drown us all.
Perhaps after scientists recycle this story for the 100th time, someone will pay attention.
Tallbloke's Talkshop 
You might find this interesting. It is from the 1934 march edition of Meccano magazine and is about tree rings, precipitation, sun spots and weather.
+1.
One of the key ingredients of climate obsession is historical illiteracy. Every journalists who has typed up an article repeating assertions like “unprecedented” and how the Arctic is facing conditions not seen for tens of thousands or millions of years without doing the research to at least look at the news files bears some responsibility for the current climate hysteria.
Here’s something new to chew on:
ERSST EOF 1234
Every reader here can easily get KNMI Climate Explorer to spit out the appendix summary (including the 4 EOF time series for quick, easy download).
Those new to KNMI should take care to check the box that centers variables. (It’s the first checkbox appearing in brackets.)
~1940 there’s a compelling symmetry between Antarctica & Greenland. I omitted the graphic from the article for no reason other than I was too exhausted to bother converting it from what I call “lgl form” (multivariate pile of time series graphs copied/pasted/stretched over one another in a lined-up pile). I’ll eventually get to it and post it here to seek commentary. The line-ups with VEI (volcanic explosivity index) are jaw-dropping.
We all have something to learn about what happens as the 2 poles cross one another, as happened early in the 20th century.
What causes the ~80-120 year wave? I’m considering 2 (temporally confounded) candidates, but so far I haven’t stumbled upon the conclusive piece of evidence &/or awareness I need to be absolutely sure one way or the other.
Another alarmist wrong again. Oceans have been rising since the end of the little ice age. No shocker there.
Even the Marinoan ice age was said to have ended by creeping C02 levels from the Earth. Yet they never claimed how a frozen world could have done that. Then we discover the rocks they used to determine the C02 levels were formed tens of millions of years after the Marinoan ice age. Yep, debunked again AGW.
http://www.caltech.edu/content/caltech-led-team-debunks-theory-end-snowball-earth-ice-age
Also, with the melting we see today ( even there has been a sudden enlargement of ice buildup ) how can one seriously put the culpability for that on C02 levels which stand at only 400 ppm? I believe most ice ages began with levels between 4000 to 7000 ppm
Gee. You have been working hard Paul. There is a lot there
Click to access Vaughan%20140524%20ERSST%20EOF%201234.pdf
Deserves a post for itself..
You ask
What causes the ~80-120 year wave?
what wave? Which of your diagrams? could you specify which one from your collection there
Are you referring to the ~ 100 yr solar amplitude cycle?
1800-1913 the 1913- 2019?
from about 196
I was interested in your comment about the out of phase period graph. The last graph
Noticed the out of phase period was about from 1960/62 and continues
How intriguing
BTW
1960 ish was the max peak of the 100 yr solar amplitude cycle
From 1960 we have been on a downward phase
Wikopedia says the polar motion has 2 periodic parts.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_motion
noticing the chandler wobble is mentioned
Have a look at this. Maybe this is useful
Click to access zm11e.pdf
The graphs show out of phase periods from about 1960 as you describe?
and/or that time period certainly has some strong change in the Chandler wobble components?
weathercycles,
I recommend doing an image search for:
Bob Tisdale Southern Ocean
That will help you track down lots of Bob’s early Southern Ocean posts (I recommend you keep hunting until you find them all) from back when ERSSTv3b & ERSSTv3b2 first came out.
Both Tim Channon (TalkShop CoHost) & I have some experience with the polar motion data. There is so much to say about the nuances of that series, changes in its measurement method, sampling, etc. that there won’t ever be time to say it all in one fully comprehensive go.
More generally, EOP (Earth Orientation Parameter) data are a rich source of geophysical information that is far from having been fully tapped — largely due to the limitations of old-school methods which are slowly being eclipsed by ever-evolving, more generalized methods that make the old-school methods mere special cases. Only the tip of the iceberg has been seen.
Here’s some background on a problem (Dirty 30s drought / CW phase reversal) that captured my interest. Some TalkShoppers may also recall the 2010 work I did on volcanic indices. (That work is no longer posted on the web. I’m currently reviewing it.)
Awareness has evolved since back whenever, but again: there’s always more to say than time will ever permit.
I strongly recommend reviewing this with the benefit of new hindsight:
Maraun, D.; & Kurths, J. (2005). Epochs of phase coherence between El Nino-Southern Oscillation and Indian monsoon. Geophysical Research Letters 32, L15709. doi10.1029-2005GL023225.
Via elegant methods their Figure 5 facilitates penetrating insight (you can underscore this) that ties right in as tightly as a glove with what I’ve illustrated in the new (May 24, 2014) article. As with Donner & Thiel (2007), some good news is just how much their beautiful methods can be refined (if/whenever time/resources permit).
Also, directing some hindsight this way might give a helpful reminder about a late-50s early-60s phase reversal that I’ve addressed elsewhere:
Schwing, F.B.; Jiang, J.; & Mendelssohn, R. (2003). Coherency of multi-scale abrupt changes between the NAO, NPI, and PDO. Geophysical Research Letters 30(7), 1406. doi:10.1029/2002GL016535.
More work needs to be done in that area. (More generally something important is missing on NPI, AO, NAO, NAM, AAO, SAM, & polar pressure shift aggregation criteria more generally — it needs to be discovered…)
linneamogren,
Do not forget the Holocene Highstand (highest sea level) was 5000 to 6000 years ago and has been decreasing in fits and starts ever since. Sea level ‘rise’ is just another lie told by the propagandists.
Another paper:
Click to access kap_paper.pdf
Thanks for your reply PV. I will have a look tomorrow hopefully in my area of interest
————————————————–
I am looking for an Arctic ice extent time series
Have only found quite short time series
http://neptune.gsfc.nasa.gov/csb/index.php?section=59
As the post suggests. The Arctic ice has been declining since 1900
That would infer a long cycle of greater than 112 yrs if a see saw effect cycle was in play here
Trying to pin point in time the last phase of Arctic ice increase?
I need a time series graph
When was the last time Arctic ice increased ?
There was a discussion of Arctic sea ice at Climate Etc.
And a ‘warmist’ chart, don’t know what data was used:
http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f03a1e37970b017744530698970d-pi
Judith Curry comments:
‘The Arctic in those pre satellite days was simply too large to be effectively and continually monitored.’
So the warmist chart can’t be taken too seriously IMO.
It looks like the AMO is now in it’s cold phase if so, expect a recovery of Arctic Sea Ice.
In the meantime Antarctic Sea Ice is at record highs and global Sea Ice is near record highs.
Right in the face of AGW theory. Also expect the drought in the U.S.A to taper off especially in eastern parts of the drought around the Texas area.
As long as the warm pool of water off the Western Coast of the U.S.A remains I expect a tendency for ridging out West hence a continuation of dry conditions in the California area. This of course being all naturally induced
In contrast, the current warming as observed is amplified over almost the entire Arctic and is seen in all seasons.
That statement is not true with summer Arctic temp. being normal if not below. Google Danish Arctic Temp data north of 80 degrees Latitude.
In addition I have always maintained that during the unset of global cooling the atmospheric circulation would be more meridional due to low solar activity which would cause the Arctic regions to warm in contrast to lower latitudes which has been the case.
Also in the mix was the warm phase of the AMO.
It is all natural nothing unusual.
What will be unusual is going to be the return to prolonged solar minimum conditions with an even greater meridional weather pattern and global temperatures on the decline.
World wide precipitation at least at the start of the temperature decline should be on the increase.se.
Hi Gail !!
Thank you for the information and links. They are very helpful…..
Salvatore,
“World wide precipitation at least at the start of the temperature decline should be on the increase.”
I’ve noticed this for the UK.
The late 1860s- early 1880s period was quite wet in the UK, with 1876/77 not far off the wet UK winter just gone (see also the booty link further below)
Followed by;
1884-1902 (DRY LATE VICTORIAN PHASE) For these 19 years, 15 had annual rainfall totals below the all-series average, with 5 of those years (1884, 1887, 1893, 1898 & 1902) notably dry. 1887 specifically was the third driest year in the EWP series (q.v.), and the other four had anomalies of 85% or lower. Notably low river flows recorded in parts of southern Britain, particularly over the chalks of SE England. It should be noted that this era coincided with rapid growth in urban areas, both in areal extent and population density: (The ‘Sherlock Holmes’ period!)”
http://booty org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1850_1899.htm
Also looking at 1929 which Paul Homewood has highlighted, the rain continued into 1930. Even the 1976/7 period. Whilst everyone recalls the famous heatwave & drought in summer few recall the deluge starting in Sept 76 (400% above av.) and for good few months after with excess rainfall around 150-200% above average. Gail Combs & Steven Goddard have mentioned this period in relation to the similarities with the Laurentide ice sheet.
SC12, 1878-1890, is showing quite a similar path to SC12 with the peak around the 5yr mark (both SCs were bisected by a Venus transit).
www(DOT)solen.info/solar/images/comparison_similar_cycles.png
Looks like the rains are returned again for the UK after easing since Feb, however drought will as you say undoubtedly follow in the future. To help with this London has built just ONE resevoir in the past 100 years!
On the IPO / polar motion amplitude phase-reversal:
Click to access ZhouYH_2004JG_PM_Warmpool.pdf
I accidentally posted the sea ice tie-in over here:
Craig, did you notice the work on the rain data I put up recently on my own blog?
There is a lot more to say about rain, some things being counter-intuitive, such as the effect of combining rainfall data from two different places. This is about the lack of un-rain, it is a one way process and spatial pattern of rainfall. A correlation grid might clarify this a little.
So far as I can see there is more trouble from inconsistent data, lots of station and equipment churn than any material change of rainfall.
Tim, thanks for the stimulating link.
It can be exhausting doing the setup, but when you share a piece of work like that you advance the starting point for fresh minds joining you in the search for superior perspective.
The error term probably isn’t you’re biggest roadblock. Varimax-rotated factor analysis would more sensibly sort the stations (which appear unhelpfully sorted according to some stale London bureaucrats’ counterproductive political criteria).
I also concur with concerns you express about annual cycle removal. I strongly suspect that alternate approaches (which may or may not be difficult to discover) can facilitate (probably crucially) important insights that will otherwise be overlooked.
I see potential for multivariate shash (sinh-arcsinh) wavelet generalization.
Click to access RS10-SP-Sinh-arcsinh-Distributions.pdf
Click to access sinhasinh.pdf
Thanks for drawing attention to the work of Pewsey & Jones.
Their elegant approach puts the Gaussian curvature on a simplifying continuum from hyperbolic towards spherical, with cylindrical as the centrally limiting case. This foundation can be used to develop a framework for exploring and objectively assessing windowing edge effects. Simplifying landmark developments could arise from the direction set by this seminal work.
That was hard Paul. I’m not usually into functional work so going out on a limb since I doubt that has been done before is asking for trouble. Been no brickbats so far.
Hyperbolics are definitely interesting. The idea of looking in that direction for precipitation came from Fisher, trying a host of ploys then discovering the surprisingly recent sinh work. I like simple. I can think of others uses too.
There is also a sinh (I think, hyper whatever) as a new integration method which is stable. Not my scene, mentioned because I came across it.
None of this deals with the GAV problem where extremes do seem to be a different regime. However, means of multiple stations have strange properties unlike the underlying stations. Two different statistical processes involved, natural and combined.
I have a correlation matrix of that lot, weird.
Tim, I’m confident that the inferential assumptions of conventional survival analysis (including GEV) are violated. Factor analysis varimax-rotation can point the way to more informative spatiotemporal aggregation. Ultimately it’s a multivariate problem (e.g. temperature, pressure, circulation, presence or absence of dominating local thermalization, etc.). Is a univariate solution even possible for your region? (Your explorations might help answer this question…)
I wish you stamina. You’ve taken on a challenging puzzle.
When time permits I’m going to implement shash as a wavelet envelope. It’s sufficiently generalized to encompass a range of envelopes I’ve used in the past, but with a single, simple parameterization. This is going to open up new avenues of exploration (both theoretical & applied).
I’m grateful for the exposure to new ideas here. Thank you.