David Archibald: The edge of a cold, deep abyss?

Posted: June 25, 2014 by tallbloke in alarmism, climate, Forecasting, Natural Variation, weather

David Archibald has some form for making dire predictions of imminent global cooling. His latest, including a forecast he claims uses David Evans’ ‘Notch delay climate model’  has just been published online at Quadrant.org.au and makes scary reading. At one level, you could be forgiven for thinking that his doom laden prognosis is as alarmist as those of Al Gore or James Hansen. However, it behoves us to remember that unlike the global warming alarmist’s fear of frying, history backs up the existence and dire effects of sudden cooling events. Personally, I think the coming cooling is unlikely to be as sudden or deep as David fears, but I’ll leave my reasoning for that opinion for the comments section. Strap in and read on.


Excerpts from: 

The edge of a cold, deep abyss?
David Archibald 25-6-2014

One of the best predictions of climate ever made (weighted for distance and accuracy) was by two Californian researchers, Leona Libby and Louis Pandolfi.  In 1979, they used tree ring data from redwoods in Kings Canyon to make a remarkably accurate forecast1.  From a Los Angeles Times interview of that year,

When she and Pandolfi project their curves into the future, they show lower average temperatures from now through the mid-1980s.  “Then,” Dr. Libby added, “we see a warming trend (by about a quarter of 1 degree Fahrenheit) globally to around the year 2000.  And then it will get really cold—if we believe our projections.  This has to be tested.” 

How cold? “Easily one or two degrees,” she replied, “and maybe even three or four degrees.”

Three or four degrees!  That would be worth confirming wouldn’t it?  Confirmation had to wait almost 30 years later in a conference poster by Finnish forestry workers (Timonen et al 2007):


The tree ring readings of the Finnish foresters are predicting a large decline in temperature bottoming out in about 2045.  The downturn you see on the right hand side of the graph is larger than any other in the last 500 years.  A cold period longer and deeper than any other in the last 500 years would have lots of real world consequences.  That would be worth following up on, wouldn’t it?

Well, we now have a way of cross-checking the tree-ring based predictions.  A just-released climate model using a notch-delay filter has the promise of providing much higher resolution in climate forecasting.  Using historic TSI data, the model can see out to 2025:


The figure above shows the model output plotted against the UAH temperature record.  It shows a very steep decline, starting in late 2014 and ending in June 2016.  After that it trends sideways for the rest of the decade.  The green box shows the expected temperature range in this period.  The predicted decline to mid-2016 is 0.6°C.  That is not remarkable in itself.  There are a few declines of that magnitude in the 34 years of the satellite record.  The remarkable thing will be that the temperature will not bounce back.

If this sounds like the reverse echo of the global warming crowd, how often have leftist wealth-redistributors been right about anything?  Given their track record, the exact opposite is the more likely outcome.  We should be ever thankful to them though. If it wasn’t for their melodramatic predictions attracting honest scientists into the climate science field, humanity would be sleepwalking into the climatic and agricultural disruption that is coming.  We will still have the consequent famine and death but we will know what’s causing it at the time.  We are on the edge of that abyss.  A vale of tears awaits.  Good luck to all of good heart.

Read the whole article here

  1. I agree with his assessment 100%.

  2. Doug Proctor says:

    More evidence all the time that sunshine, not CO2 is the main driver of worldwide temperatures.

    In Archibald’s favour: the UAH is a global temperature record. But the mainland, central food producing areas of the United States. Canada and the Ukraine have a higher and lower response, just as the oceans, with their mass and higher thermal capacity, have a lower response. A 0.6C drop in global temperatures will translate to a 2C drop approximately in the grain growing areas. If this is evenly distributed with summer and winter, day and night temperature parts, 2C isn’t too bad. But if the summers, drop more than the winters,, and the days, more than nights’, then the EFFECTIVE crop growing conditions will be more than 2C. Shorter growing seasons, less growth (and probably more rain, judging how I’ve experienced the prairies temp/rain relationship over the last 35 years).

    Global temperatures are not what affect people. All effects are local. We have to look at the breakdown of global to regional and regional to local for climate changes.

    Right now we have Gore and Suzuki and lots of others saying we will be frying in the sun by 2020. And Archibald and others (whose side I am on, BTW), saying the next few years will be colder. Both can’t be right, fortunately: eventually reality falsifies pretty PowerPoint presentations. Trouble is, most of us have our retirement plans already invested in the mainstream interpretations by then.

    We are at a cusp – finally. Is it any wonder that the CAGW believers are getting so ornery and shrill right now? The social agenda is what the warmists are really after, so if it doesn’t get hot, all that ideology is left hanging. And the true agenda comes out if they continue to push.

  3. Why should it end in June of 2016? That part does not make any sense.

  4. vukcevic says:

    I did an extrapolation for the CET 2-3 years ago, the results are far less dramatic

  5. J Martin says:

    Interesting that David Archibald’s stealing of David Evan’s thunder shows the downturn to start at about the same time that Abdussamatov predicted.

    It also shows remarkable agreeement with the cycles analysis projection by Tim Channon with both the start of the steeper part of the downturn and the drop all the way to 2040.

    3 very (?) different pieces of work all coming to the near enough the same conclusion. Game, set and match.

    If that graph turns out to be anywhere near correct then the careers of a lot of politicians and so-called climate scientists are toast.

  6. We are talking about global temperatures.

    As was the case during the Maunder although most places were colder some actually were warmer due to atmospheric circulation changes in response to solar changes.

    The same thing will happen this time but as the prolonged solar minimum continues the trend in temperature is not going to stop going down until the decline in solar activity ends.


    Solar Flux avg. sub 90

    Solar Wind avg. sub 350 km/sec

    AP index avg. sub 5.0

    Cosmic ray counts north of 6500 counts per minute

    Total Solar Irradiance off .015% or more

    EUV light average 0-105 nm sub 100 units (or off 100% or more) and longer UV light emissions around 300 nm off by several percent.

    IMF around 4.0 nt or lower.

    The above solar parameter averages following several years of sub solar activity in general which commenced in year 2005..

    IF , these average solar parameters are the rule going forward for the remainder of this decade expect global average temperatures to fall by -.5C, with the largest global temperature declines occurring over the high latitudes of N.H. land areas.

    The decline in temperatures should begin to take place within six months after the ending of the maximum of solar cycle 24.

    NOTE 1- What mainstream science is missing in my opinion is two fold, in that solar variability is greater than thought, and that the climate system of the earth is more sensitive to that solar variability.


    A. Ozone concentrations in the lower and middle stratosphere are in phase with the solar cycle, while in anti phase with the solar cycle in the upper stratosphere.

    B. Certain bands of UV light are more important to ozone production then others.

    C. UV light bands are in phase with the solar cycle with much more variability, in contrast to visible light and near infrared (NIR) bands which are in anti phase with the solar cycle with much LESS variability


    1. The initial state of the global climate.

    a. how close or far away is the global climate to glacial conditions if in inter- glacial, or how close is the earth to inter- glacial conditions if in a glacial condition.

    b. climate was closer to the threshold level between glacial and inter- glacial 20,000 -10,000 years ago. This is why I think the climate was more unstable then. Example solar variability and all items would be able to pull the climate EASIER from one regime to another when the state of the climate was closer to the inter glacial/glacial dividing line, or threshold.


    2. Solar variability and the associated primary and secondary effects. Lag times, degree of magnitude change and duration of those changes must be taken into account. I have come up with criteria . I will pass it along, why not in my next email.

    a. solar irradiance changes- linked to ocean heat content.

    b. cosmic ray changes- linked to clouds.

    c. volcanic activity- correlated to stratospheric warming changing which will impact the atmospheric circulation.

    d. UV light changes -correlated to ozone which then can be linked to atmospheric circulation changes.

    e. atmospheric changes – linked to ocean current changes including ENSO, and thermohaline circulation.

    f. atmospheric changes -linked also to albedo changes due to snow cover, cloud cover , and precipitation changes.

    g. thickness of thermosphere – which is linked to other levels of the atmosphere.


    3. Strength of the magnetic field of the earth. This can enhance or moderate changes associated with solar variability.

    a. weaker magnetic field can enhance cosmic rays and also cause them to be concentrated in lower latitudes where there is more moisture to work with to be more effective in cloud formation if magnetic poles wander south due to magnetic excursions in a weakening magnetic field overall.

    4. Milankovitch Cycles. Where the earth is at in relation to these cycles as far as how elliptic or not the orbit is, the tilt of the axis and precession.

    a. less elliptic, less tilt, earth furthest from sun during N.H. summer — favor cooling.

    I feel what I have outlined for the most part is not being taken as a serious possible solution as to why the climate changes. Rather climate change is often trying to be tied with terrestrial changes and worse yet only ONE ITEM , such as CO2 or ENSO which is absurdity.

    Over time not one of these one item explanations stand up, they can not explain all of the various climatic changes to all the different degrees of magnitude and duration of time each one different from the previous one. Each one UNIQUE.

    Examples would be the sudden start/end of the Oldest, Older and Younger Dryas dramatic climate shifts, the 8200 year ago cold period, and even the sudden start of the Little Ice Age following the Medieval Warm Period.

  9. Ursa Felidae says:

    Any chance places like Florida may become more hospitable during the summer?:}
    Also, if it does cool down in the subtropical and tropical climates, would they not be able to pick up slack in the production of vegetables?

  10. I stand corrected I see it was for CET.

    I have done a global forecast of what I expect broken down . I will send it.

  11. I can’t send it. Nevertheless I expect the greatest global temperature drops in general will be in the N.H over land areas N of 35 LAT.

  12. I will say this we are all certain the trend in temperatures going forward will be down., The question is by how much? My guess is -0.5c for the globe on average by 2020 with further drops after this.

  13. Nick Stokes says:

    “David Archibald has some form for making dire predictions of imminent global cooling.”

    He sure does. Here he is telling our Parliament in 2008:

    “My prediction is that this rate of cooling will accelerate to 0.2 degrees per annum following the month of solar minimum sometime in

    That’s 20°C/century.

    [reply] Lol. 🙂

  14. tchannon says:

    I disconnect from prediction simply saying that if you do this, that happens. Anything more is foolhardy unless there is a definite basis. No firm basis exists.

  15. tallbloke says:

    Salvatore: “I have done a global forecast of what I expect broken down . I will send it.”

    You need to upload it to a free hosting service and then link it here.
    Text document – Scribd.com
    Images – tinypic.com

  16. tallbloke says:

    Well, my prediction is already out there, so I’ll do a separate post with it later, and explain why I think David Archibald is wrong.

  17. JohnM says:

    The IPCC will retain its letters but change the meaning to Intergovernmental Panel on Cooling Climate. 😉 I expect some of its inner cadre of warmists to try to a 180-degree turn in the hope that the public won’t notice.

  18. Trick says:

    “…for making dire predictions of imminent global [insert recent disaster projection]”

    Many have noted doomsday scenarios painted by people who profited by doing so, but which never came to pass.

    Asteroids: it is in the best interests of astronomers & aerospace industry to scare us so that we’ll pressure the government to support astronomy/space research more generously.

    Aircraft accidents, automobile accidents: Mandate insure then lawyer up.

    Stock market: crashes.

    Agriculture: Famine 1975! by the Paddock brothers. The famines did not turn out as predicted.

    Atmospheric sciences: Cold or warming is coming, oh the droughts, storms. It is difficult to get research grants unless you can somehow tie your work to global warming, that is to say, to scare science.

    Nuclear power: is dangerous but so is non-nuclear power – wind farms:

    “Instrument meteorological conditions prevailed…The wreckage of the airplane was scattered in a radius surrounding the base of a wind turbine. The airplane was fragmented. One turbine blade exhibited impact damage…”

    The loss of a single life was not a price we would willingly pay for nuclear power. We are willing to accept the loss of tens of thousands of lives every year in automobile accidents with hardly a peep. Coal miners die quickly in explosions or slowly by lung disease, with only occasionally a word of protest.

    Some ardent or zealous seem to be eager for the end of the Earth.

    The same is true for biology, medicine (Ebola!, equine fever!). This does not mean that the alarmists are wrong or even dishonest, merely that in assessing their claims we must always ask about the extent to which they will profit from our believing and acting on them.

    Definitely entertaining all this drama. Earn your reward sticker: “I voted”.

  19. Ian Wilson says:

    I hope that my 2009 prediction does not come true:

    Wilson, Ian R.G., 2009, Can We Predict the Next Indian
    Mega-Famine?, Energy and Environment, Vol 20,
    Numbers 1-2, pp. 11-24.



    Catastrophic multi-year failure of the Indian monsoon has caused at least eight
    mega-famines in India over the last 1100 years. Historical data shows that seven
    out of the eight mega-famines have either started within ± one year of the year of
    greatest asymmetry in the Sun’s motion about the Solar System’s centre-of-mass,
    or 11 years ± one year after this event. The Sun is currently experiencing a
    maximum in the asymmetry of its motion about the centre-of-mass. Evidence is
    presented to show that there is almost a 1-in-4 the chance that there will be another
    Indian mega-famine in 2018-20. While the chance of such a catastrophic event
    occurring is small, it is large enough that the governments on the Indian subcontinent
    should take precautionary measures to confront this potentially
    devastating threat.

    The current onset of the 2014 Indian Monsoon is two weeks late and down 38 %
    on integrated all-India rainfall, similar to what happened in 2009.


    Let’s hope that is not an indicator of an upcoming multi-year failure of the
    Indian Monsoon in about 4 – 5 years time.

    Of course the alarmist will jump up and down and say that their warming
    models predicted this outcome all along!

  20. Interesting IAN. Hopefully the world can be prepared to help these people.

    the pictures of these past events are ghastly!!


    Volker Doormanns planetary/solar tidal model agrees with the strong global temp downturn
    His model suggests its already started


    Just extrapolated this global temp graph to 2030 ( where most agree the cooling will go to at least)
    This would make us an anomaly of ~minus 0.3 by 2030.


    The drop in temp’ at 1945 was a much steeper drop. This was the drop from the regular ~66yr cycle max

    However if the de vries or any of the longer cycles is involved in this drop curently ,which it could be ( Dalton/maunder type downturn) then we could be on a bigger cliff drop as per Archibald and the Russian researcher)

    Timonen 2007 ( Finnish tree ring picture above)has no label on the temp’ axis so that is not very useful

  21. Jaime Jessop says:

    Well, at least we won’t have to wait long to see if this dire prediction comes true! Note that the notch-delay model is a significantly better fit for CET than it is for the UAH global temperature record, which might suggest that it is biased towards northern hemisphere mid latitudes temperature profiles. Of course, this is where we find the major grain-producing belts, so if it does turn out that the NH cools significantly whilst the owrld as a whole shows much less of a decline, this is still something to get seriously concerned about. Note particularly that the notch-delay model spectacularly fails to model the warming post El Nino 1998, both globally and regionally (in the case of Whitestown, Indiana).

  22. tallbloke says:

    Ian W: “I hope that my 2009 prediction does not come true:”

    The tragedy of this is that huge piles of rice and cereals were left to rot in India a year or so back because the price was low on the world market (bumper crop), and India’s poor couldn’t afford it.
    Just in time agriculture is a recipe for disaster. It leaves the market open to manipulation, and increases price volatility, and uncertainty for the poor.
    Ghandi’s last words were

    “Don’t waste the food”.

  23. Gail Combs says:

    Ursa Felidae says: @ June 26, 2014 at 12:11 am

    Any chance places like Florida may become more hospitable during the summer?:}
    I am in North Carolina and the weather here has become more hospitable.

    I count 43 day over ninety F and nine days of 98F for 2004 by July tenth
    vs 26 days over ninety F and four days of 98F for 2010, by July tenth.

    In 2013 there were only three days over ninety F by July tenth and none higher than the one day @ 95F for the whole summer.

    So far this summer is a bit warmer than last with ten days in the low nineties. It is still no where near as hot as the Cycle 23 peak where the temperatures were in the high nineties ==> 100°F. In 2004 we had 17 days over ninety F by the end of May. The record temps for July were as high as 107°F.

    I remember days constantly in the high nineties often hitting 100°F but it is long enough ago that NOAA has ‘Cooled the past’ (removed most of the record of that time.)

    The temperature record is really mucked-up. On feb 11 of this year I had 2 inches of ice on my stock tanks and snow up to my ankle bones covering my pastures. I am within walking distance of a weather station. When I checked a few days later to see the “Official” snow depth it showed above freezing temps and RAIN!!!

    I called Jeff Masters a liar on his blog and he actually CHANGED THE DATA. Now it shows 0.37 inches of snow. Sorry a third of an inch of snow doesn’t cover my boots or blanket a pasture with relatively tall grass.

  24. Gail Combs says:

    Connecting a few dots:

    The Dust Bowl started in 1931 +88 years = 2019

    Rest of the comment with papers on Sun-Monsoon season connections at Steven Goddard’s

  25. tolou says:

    Is Archibald only referring to the solar effect alone? That can’t be right.

    Here’ a complete ridiculously simple climate model, but it works quite well considering! Includes solar activity, oceans(AMO & PDO) and CO2, all with the same weight.

    Hindcast testing against HadCRUT3:

    Link to the model:

    The aggregated total for all parameters:

    Do I spot a 0.2deg decline by any chance?

  26. Ian Wilson says:


    That should have read 2019 not 2009!

  27. Ian Wilson says:

    i.e. the prediction about 2019 was made in 2009

  28. Gail Combs says:

    Ian Wilson, interesting that we both come up with 2019 from completely different directions. Archibald is saying 2016, a few years earlier for the start.

    I am just using Dr Joan Feynman’s 88 year cycle that she found in the Nile River records and applying it to the start of the dust bowl. (It is also when Solar Cycle 24 should be heading for the basement, not that it isn’t already.)

    The papers I found all say pretty much the same thing “Solar minima are in this period associated with minima in summer precipitation, whereas the amount of summer precipitation increases during periods with higher solar activity.

    The last paper I linked to at Steven Goddards link was a bit more descriptive:

    Multidecadal to multicentury scale collapses of Northern Hemisphere monsoons over the past millennium
    …Several megadroughts are evident, including a multicentury one, AD 1350–1650, herein referred to as Super Drought, which corresponds to the coldest period of the Little Ice Age. Synchronicity between southwestern North American, Chinese, and West African monsoon precipitation suggests the megadroughts were hemispheric in scale. Northern Hemisphere monsoon strength over the last millennium is positively correlated with Northern Hemisphere temperature and North Atlantic SST. The megadroughts are associated with cooler than average SST and Northern Hemisphere temperatures. Furthermore, the megadroughts, including the Super Drought, coincide with solar insolation minima, suggesting that solar forcing of sea surface and atmospheric temperatures may generate variations in the strength of Northern Hemisphere monsoons. Our findings seem to suggest stronger (wetter) Northern Hemisphere monsoons with increased warming….

    It is no wonder the Warmist Scamsters include drought in their chicken little dance.

  29. Gail Combs says:

    I hate to say it but it is not looking good and the D@@#$M politicians won’t get off their butts and prepare for the mess we are headed into.

    Soon it will be time for Defenestration

  30. ren says:

    Equally strong anomaly seen over the Indian Ocean. It inhibits the passata over India.
    Us see circulation in the lower stratosphere.

  31. ren says:

    You can see again increase ozone over the south magnetic pole.

    Height of 20 km is the strongest ionization zone.

  32. ren says:

    Changes in temperature will be a derivative of changes in circulation and the temperature in the lower stratosphere, especially at the poles.

  33. ren says:

    This is evidenced by a record increase in ice around Antarctica.
    Such the records can not be coincidence. Look since 2008.

  34. ren says:

    Some people on WUWT do not take these data to the message. In California, due to the circulation is drought.

  35. ren says:

    You can also see that the changes in the magnetic field of the sun began in 2001. It had been so for over 11 years.

  36. Gail Combs says:

    Bart, there is a problem with your prediction. You are using the mangled Climastrologists data.

    The 1930s-1940s were A LOT warmer than today. Steven Goddard has been all over the lie that now is warmer than the 1930s.

    NASA : Corrupting The Whole Planet

    It isn’t just the US temperatures which have been corrupted by NASA and NOAA, but they have done the same thing for the entire planet

    As of 1975, the Northern Hemisphere’s past was much warmer during the 1940s than it is now. The animation below flashes between the 1975 National Academy of Sciences data in blue, and the current NASA data in red. The baseline periods are not identical, but what is interesting is that the years from 1900 to 1960 got colder, while the post 1960 years got warmer.

    The upshot of all that is we have really been slightly cooling since the 1930s Modern Warm Period Peak.

  37. p.g.sharrow says:

    I see another GD hockey stick! a real one, in play. Even the Ecoloons are having a hard time keeping it UP. Emmm………….. they must be getting old! 😉 pg

  38. Have noted 2 factors to support Archibald’s deep downturn.

    The time series proxy data ( AD ) indicates a cycle max at ~1000AD and Max at ~2000AD.
    at wikopedia : little ice age

    with the cold trough half way at 1500 AD.

    This is a 1000 yr cycle of phase length 500yr.

    If true we are on a downward decline in the 1000 yr cycle for the next 500 yr.
    Superimposed is the down phase of the De vries for 100 yr
    and down phase of the familiar ~66yr for the next 33 yrs

    That gives 3 cycles constructively overlaid for a downward turn for the next 30 yrs.

    I wouldn’t throw Archibald out with the bath water yet.

    Also of note is this evidence of just how this is achieved as a strong feed back loops

    The study, led by the University of Colorado Boulder with co-authors at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and other organizations, suggests that an unusual, 50-year-long episode of four massive tropical volcanic eruptions triggered the Little Ice Age between 1275 and 1300 A.D. The persistence of cold summers following the eruptions is best explained by a subsequent expansion of sea ice and a related weakening of Atlantic currents, according to computer simulations conducted for the study.
    The study, which used analyses of patterns of dead vegetation, ice and sediment core data, and powerful computer climate models, provides new evidence in a longstanding scientific debate over the onset of the Little Ice Age. Scientists have theorized that the Little Ice Age was caused by decreased summer solar radiation, erupting volcanoes that cooled the planet by ejecting sulfates and other aerosol particles that reflected sunlight back into space, or a combination of the two.
    “This is the first time anyone has clearly identified the specific onset of the cold times marking the start of the Little Ice Age,” says lead author Gifford Miller of the University of Colorado Boulder. “We also have provided an understandable climate feedback system that explains how this cold period could be sustained for a long period of time. If the climate system is hit again and again by cold conditions over a relatively short period—in this case, from volcanic eruptions—there appears to be a cumulative cooling effect.”
    What it says: The Little Ice Age was initiated by a series of volcanic eruptions then ocean circulation and sea ice changes caused a positive (ie cooling) feedback that lasted for centuries.
    more from the link below
    thanks to http://aerosolsandclimate.wordpress.com/ for this link

  39. Jo Nova has another post (27th June 2014)where David Evans is forecasting a sudden saw tooth wave drop of 0.6 dec in a few short years. Similar to Archibald.To commence somewhere between 2014-2018



  40. tallbloke says:

    WC: Neither of the Davids appreciate the extent to which the oceans can ameliorate the terrestrial climatic effects of a weakening Sun for years, if not decades.

    Time will tell. Some big volcanic eruptions might change things. I doubt they’ll change things as much as the IPCC scientists think they will though.