Ian Wilson: 18.6 year lunar cycle in high rainfall years in Victoria

From Ian Wilson’s Astro-Climate Connection blog:

The Moon’s orbit is tilted by approximately five degrees compared to the Earth-Sun plane. The net affect of this is that the strength of Lunar-tides at a given latitude on the Earth’s surface vary in strength over a cycle of 18.6 years. This 18.6 year Draconic cycle is also clearly evident in the small changes that take place in the rate of rotation of the Earth.

Forget alleged Russian involvement in anti-fracking: Look at EU and Green NGO bedmates

From Spiked Online:

According to the Financial Times, NATO secretary-general Anders Fogh Rasmussen told an audience at Chatham House in London that the Russian government has been working with NGOs to ‘maintain European dependence on imported Russian gas’ by ‘funding anti-fracking groups’ to mislead the public and lobby governments. Maybe, maybe not. But such Gazprom conspiracy theories are irrelevant. Large green NGOs were born out of the excesses of British and European politics; they were created by politicians in Westminster and Brussels, not by Vladimir Putin.

Forget alleged Russian meddling – just consider how close and incestuous the relationship between European politicians and green NGOs, including ones that oppose fracking, has become in recent years.

Receding Swiss Glaciers Reveal 4000 Year Old Forests – Warmists Try To Suppress Findings

.

.

Paul Homewood pulls together scattered media reports concerning the European Alps; putting the lie to claims of ‘unprecedented’ temperatures put about by the climate alarmists. Pierre Gosselin also reported on Schleuchter’s interview a couple of days ago.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

As many sources, including HH Lamb, have pointed out, back in the Bronze Age around 2000BC, the climate in the Alps was much warmer than now.

It is therefore no surprise to find direct evidence of this from geologist Dr. Christian Schlüchter, Professor emeritus at the University of Bern in Switzerland.

Larry Bell at Newsmax has the story:

Dr. Christian Schlüchter’s discovery of 4,000-year-old chunks of wood at the leading edge of a Swiss glacier was clearly not cheered by many members of the global warming doom-and-gloom science orthodoxy.

This finding indicated that the Alps were pretty nearly glacier-free at that time, disproving accepted theories that they only began retreating after the end of the little ice age in the mid-19th century. As he concluded, the region had once been much warmer than today, with “a wild landscape and wide flowing river.”

Dr. Schlüchter’s report might…

View original post 1,770 more words

Image of the day: ‘Waterfall’ of clouds on Teneriffe

H. C. Russell: The Periodicity of Seasons – Lunar Timed Drought Cycles

H/T to Phill for this paper by H.C. Russell reproduced in The Queenslander (Brisbane, Qld. : 1866 – 1939) Saturday 27 June 1896

Periodicity of Good and Bad Seasons.
MR. H. C. RUSSELL’S THEORY.

The Nineteen Year Weather Cycle—Diagram Illustrating Mr. H. C. Russells Paper on ” The Periodicity of Seasons”

The paper lately read before the Royal Society of New South Wales by Mr. H.C. Russell, the Government Astronomer, a condensation of which has already appeared in the ” Queens lander,” has excited so much interest and so much discussion that no apology is needed for returning to the subject. With the view of affording our readers as full an insight as possible into the grounds upon which Mr. Russell has based his conversion to the theory of the nineteen-year cycle we reproduce the complete paper, as published in the ” Sydney Mail,” with the accompanying diagrams.

Mr. Russell said :— I feel some reluctance in coming for ward to-night with the result of my investigations into the periodicity of good and bad seasons—floods and droughts if you will—because they must come to you as a surprise, and they will make a claim on your confidence which at first sight you will probably not be disposed to grant. For myself, I know that some years ago, if anyone had come to me, stating that it was possible to forecast the seasons many years in advance, I should have received the statement with incredulity, and an inclination to think lightly of the man who advanced such views.’

Decadal lag of temperature response to solar input: A qualitative summary

I’m of the opinion that before getting into the complexity of numerical modelling, it’s wise to put considerable effort into trying to understand the physical processes at work in the climate system, and the origins of the energy flows that drive them. David Evans’ recent series of posts over at Jo Nova’s site have generated a lot of interesting discussion (despite being roundly ignored by Anthony Watts at WUWT), and I think we can shed some light on the ‘mysterious 11yr lag’ between solar input and climate response.

Vernon Coleman: Was Britain taken into the EU illegally?

This is a followup to a post about the issue of sovereignty and Britain’s membership of the EU I put up a while back. These are weighty issues the public needs to consider. Needless to say, the BBC won’t be promoting in depth debate about the matter, so it’s up to bloggers and journalists to do the job. Actually, not many journo’s seem to want to raise their heads above the parapet either. I know it’s dull stuff, but please read and think about this. It’s up to us to let the political class know we don’t take kindly to having our liberties, fought for since Magna Carta, signed away to an unelected foreign commissariat which subjects us to summary extradition through European arrest warrants, dictates how we (dis)organise flood defences, and forces us to put the ‘human rights’ of criminals before those of their victims.

Was Ted Heath committing treason when he signed Britain into the EU?

Was Britain Taken Into The EU Illegally?
by Vernon Coleman – 2011

Many constitutional experts believe that Britain isn’t actually a member of the European Union since our apparent entry was in violation of British law and was, therefore invalid.

In enacting the European Communities Bill through an ordinary vote in the House of Commons, Ted Heath’s Government breached the constitutional convention which requires a prior consultation of the people (either by a general election or a referendum) on any measure involving constitutional change. The general election or referendum must take place before any related parliamentary debate. (Britain has no straightforward written constitution. But, the signing of the Common Market entrance documents was, without a doubt, a breach of the spirit of our constitution.)

David Evans & Jo Nova: Analysing the 11 year lag in climate response to solar input

An interesting series of posts has appeared at Jo Nova’s site. Jo’s husband, David Evans has done some competent analysis work to unravel the observed ~11 yr ‘delay’ in terrestrial climatic response to solar input. Of interest is the obervation that the solar polar magnetic fields are in the process of weakeneing and changing sign near solar maximum. It is suspected that this is connected with the delay. Head on over to read the posts and comment there as well as here.

Figure 6: The amplitudes of the empirical transfer function when the data is restricted in the ways marked (that is, using a subset of the data used to find Figure 5). The black line and the gray zone are as in Figure 5.

BIG NEWS Part I: Historic development — New Solar climate model coming
BIG NEWS Part II: For the first time – a mysterious notch filter found in the climate
BIG NEWS Part III: The notch means a delay
BIG NEWS part IV: A huge leap understanding the mysterious 11 year solar delay

I have made a comment, reproduced below the break.

The curiosity of the Neutron delay after sunspots

A strange effect is months of delay of cosmic rays from solar sunspot cycle, not constant. This also has implications for 14C.

A plot of the two datasets taken from a live spreadsheet implementing data delay, set here for zero. Unfortunately the data tends to cause filter ringing and is impulsive anyway so this is not up to my usual standards of fidelity. A line plot doesn’t help but is clearer. Correlation peaks at r2 = 0.8, neutron data is inverted, data is normalised and made more comparable.

I’ve been meaning to post this for some time but the saga unfolding at Jo Nova with “a theory” where currently I have no idea whether it is reasonable might link.

The Magna Carta – Clauses As Tweets

.
.
I joined in with a few of John’s tweets earlier today. Nice work mate.

Homo economicus' Weblog

One year from today will be the 800th anniversary of the Magna Carta. But what was this “Great Charter”, what did it say, and what meaning could this historical document have for us now? How well would a document written in 1215, to settle a dispute between a King and his Barons in a feudal Britain, weather the centuries to modern readers?

Beyond people talking about it, I had never read all 63 clauses of the Magna Carta. Reading a tweet by Tom Holland that everyone interpreted it to their own political biases I decided to not only read, to but tweet each clause as I did. Adding humour where 140 characters would allow.

Hours later I finished. Enjoy!

If you are looking for the full text with a handy side historical context, recommend checking out this site here.

Article written by John Sargeant on Homo economicus’ Weblog

Follow

View original post 5 more words

Another extra-solar system displays a ‘why phi’ orbital resonance

A newly discovered planet pair orbiting a red dwarf a mere 13 light years from our solar system is in a near 2:5 orbital resonance. From National Geographic:

An international team of astronomers reports the discovery of two new planets orbiting Kapteyn’s star, a nearby red dwarf with a long history. One of its newly discovered worlds, dubbed Kapteyn b, circles the star at the right distance to allow seas to survive on its surface, where water is seen as a key ingredient of life as we know it.

El Niño 2014: Early strength fades

.
.
Excellent analysis from ‘Inform the Pundits’

Inform The Pundits!

NOAA El Niño Report/June 2014: El Niño 2014 strength fading compared to El Niño of 1997-98

Austin, June 12, 2014 — NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released its monthly El Niño report for May, on June 5th. The consensus probability there will be El Niño conditions for the Northern Hemisphere summer jumped to 70 percent, getting as high as 80 percent by late fall and winter.

Last March saw the highest subsurface ocean temperatures ever measured so early in an El Niño event. Speculation suggested this year’s event might be a repeat of the super El Niño of 1997-98. That one was the exclamation point at the end of the last massive global warming cycle that stopped 15 years ago.

However, it’s beginning to look like El Niño 2014 won’t be as strong as previously feared.

NOAA El Niño Report/June 2014: Consensus El Niño forecast

Forecasting El Niño is a…

View original post 508 more words

The madness of the US War on Carbon Dioxide

[image credit: grist.org]

James Delingpole highlights the absurdity of US ‘climate policy’ – $4 trillion for what?

In a week when confidence in sea surface temperatures as a measure of ‘climate change’ seems to have gone out of the window, the eye-watering cost of trying to influence the planet’s weather systems beggars belief.

Lords launch Arctic Committee: Includes Ron Oxburgh

There is a new cross party committee on the Arctic, to report in March 2015

Ron Oxburgh is a member of this new House of Lords committee in the Arctic.

Yes, that Ron Oxburgh.

 

His interests declaration makes interesting reading.

Professor: ‘we do not seem to have the correct theory of gravity’

Andromeda galaxy
[credit: Wikipedia]

Once again observation clashes with theory. This time it’s dwarf galaxies putting a spanner in the works of the ‘standard model’, says an international team of researchers.

“When we compared simulations … to what is observed by astronomers, we found a very substantial mismatch,” the lead author said.

The Insane cost of Ed Davey’s ‘Green’ energy policy

Andrew Orlowski has a hard hitting piece in todays El Reg:

UK govt preps World War 2 energy rationing to keep the lights on
By Andrew Orlowski, 10 Jun 2014

Visit cartoonsbyjosh.com and buy something!

The UK government will today set out Second World War-style measures to keep the lights on and avert power cuts as a “last resort”. The price to Britons will be high.

Factories will be asked to “voluntarily” shut down to save energy at peak times for homes, while others will be paid to provide their own backup power should they have a spare generator or two lying around. And as part of the government’s wider energy market reforms, electricity producers will be able to name their price for bringing mothballed fossil-fuel-powered plants back on line.

AfD jockey for position as EU group horse-trading stakes increase

Climate-sceptical German political party AfD has been trying to get a seat at the ECR EU-reform grouping table in order to gain domestic influence. But much as it would benefit David Cameron in numerical terms to welcome them in, Frau Merkel says ‘Nein!’, and Cameron needs Merkel onside to get a less federalist leaning EU president elected. Doubling his discomfort, if AfD is excluded, they will probably align with UKIP, increasing the likelihood of Nigel Farage’s grouping gaining enough support for a front-row seat in the European Parliament. This from The Irish Times:

With David Cameron in Sweden to haggle with other European Union leaders over Jean-Claude Juncker’s fate, his Tory MEPs face another difficult choice in Brussels.

After final talks today, they decide tomorrow whether or not to accept Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) as Euro-critical allies in the new European parliament.

Welcoming the seven German MEPs would be a shot in the arm to the Tory’s European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) grouping, making it the third largest in the new parliament and giving a strong voice to the Tory Eurocritical reform agenda.

But they also know that opening the door to the AfD, which polled 7 per cent on May 25th in Germany, would unleash the wrath of Angela Merkel.

Cold shoulder

For two weeks, the German leader has been urging Tory leader Cameron to show the AfD the cold shoulder. She worries that having the AfD in an established political grouping would give them greater credibility and visibility as rivals to her Christian Democratic Union (CDU) ahead of state elections later in the summer.

 

With the AfD rising in the polls, the German leader is facing growing pressure from inside her party to present a clear political strategy to challenge – rather than ignore – the AfD threat.

Read the rest here

Great Moments In Climate Forecasting

.
.
Climate science – calling it wrong since 19??

.
 

Real Climate Science

Ten climate forecasts which demonstrate that the world’s leading government climate experts have absolutely no clue what they are talking about.

NASA’s top experts said that burning fossil fuels would trigger an ice age.

U.S. Scientist Sees New Ice Age Coming

Snow is a thing of the past.

Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past – Environment – The Independent

Arctic ice free by 2000

The Changing Face of the Arctic – Article – NYTimes.com

New ice age coming

The Windsor Star – Google News Archive Search

Manhattan underwater by 2008

Stormy weather – Salon.com

Arctic ice free by 2013

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’

Antarctica will soon be the only place to live.

Why Antarctica will soon be the only place to live – literally – Environment – The Independent

Skiing is doomed

Skiing is ‘doomed’ … so enjoy it while it lasts…

View original post 55 more words

WAIS outlet glacier being melted by magma – not co2 global warming after all

Phys.org finds a nice way of saying the doomsters have completely misunderstood the reason why the West Antarctic Ice Sheet outlet has been thinning. New research finds hotter than previously thought geothermal activity underneath the glacier. This means the animated model showing massive WAIS recession by 2350 Cabot Institute director Prof. Rich Pancost was scaring the punters with down at SPRI last week is junk science:

Thwaites Glacier, the large, rapidly changing outlet of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, is not only being eroded by the ocean, it’s being melted from below by geothermal heat, researchers at the Institute for Geophysics at The University of Texas at Austin (UTIG) report in the current edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The findings significantly change the understanding of conditions beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet where accurate information has previously been unobtainable.

The Thwaites Glacier has been the focus of considerable attention in recent weeks as other groups of researchers found the glacier is on the way to collapse, but more data and computer modeling are needed to determine when the collapse will begin in earnest and at what rate the sea level will increase as it proceeds. The new observations by UTIG will greatly inform these ice sheet modeling efforts.

The aircon effect

Air conditioning is standard
[image credit: BBC]

Real man-made warming, just for a change…

Some US cities are getting warmer at night due to increased use of air conditioning that expels warm air from buildings.

Of course this is the classic positive feedback loop. As more warm air is expelled, the temperature rises, leading to more people using more aircon to cool down again – and so on.