New ice core sulphate records show Sun had more influence on LIA onset than previously thought

Posted: July 6, 2014 by tallbloke in Celestial Mechanics, climate, Cycles, solar system dynamics, volcanos

Physorg has a story on a new reconstruction of volcanic activity from ice cores in Antarctica. It’s fairly strong on boilerplate but there is an interesting kicker near the end of the article:

A team of scientists led by Michael Sigl and Joe McConnell of Nevada’s Desert Research Institute (DRI) has completed the most accurate and precise reconstruction to date of historic volcanic sulfate emissions in the Southern Hemisphere.

“Both observations and model results show that not all eruptions lead to the same spatial pattern of sulfate deposition,” said Matthew Toohey from the German institute GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel. He added, “Spatial variability in sulfate deposition means that the accuracy of volcanic sulfate reconstructions depends strongly on having a sufficient number of ice core records from as many different regions of Antarctica as possible.”

With such an accurately synchronized and robust array, Sigl and his colleagues were able to revise reconstructions of past volcanic aerosol loading that are widely used today in climate model simulations. Most notably, the research found that the two largest  in recent Earth history (Samalas in 1257 and Kuwae in 1458) deposited 30 to 35 percent less sulfate in Antarctica, suggesting that these events had a weaker cooling effect on global climate than previously thought.

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2014-07-rewriting-history-volcanic-years.html

____________________________________

The implication is that the cooling events around those times are probably linked to solar downturns which had a bigger effect than previously thought. Checking our PRP solar-planetary model hindcast by Rick Salvador, we find that 1257 coincides with the descent into the Wolf minimum and 1458 coincides with the coldest part of the Spoerer minimum.

Fig 4 from 'A mathematical model of the sunspot cycle for the past 1000 yr' by R.J. Salvador

Fig 4 from ‘A mathematical model of the sunspot cycle
for the past 1000 yr’ by R.J. Salvador – volcano annotations added

This is useful circumstantial evidence supporting the validity of the model and the Solanki C14 reconstruction.

Comments
  1. Jaime Jessop says:

    Of course, the volcanic eruptions themselves should probably not be considered as completely independent of solar activity so, in a sense, what is implied is that the additional aerosol cooling effect of volcanic eruptions during periods of low solar activity is not quite as global as was assumed, with Antarctic sulphate accumulations 30-35% less than previously modelled. This in turn might be a factor in explaining why the LIA was more pronounced in the NH, but was still a global event. I wonder if there is a reliable model in existence which can accurately predict the global distribution of aerosols for any given volcanic eruption at any given location? Doubtful probably. Too many variables.

  2. oldbrew says:

    ‘the two largest volcanic eruptions in recent Earth history (Samalas in 1257 and Kuwae in 1458)’

    So were the volcanic eruptions themselves linked to solar magnetic forces?

    Update: previous comment wasn’t showing when I posted!

  3. tallbloke says:

    Jaime:Of course, the volcanic eruptions themselves should probably not be considered as completely independent of solar activity

    Absolutley. Salvatore recently posted a list of the major eruptions showing they nearly all took place when solar activity was low. Key point for this post though is that mainstreamers have been overegging volcanic effects to explain climate change because they underestimate the effect of solar variation.

  4. Impressive post. Logical and convincing.

  5. Michele says:

    Quick and impulsive changes in the interplanetary magnetic field or tidal springs, trigger large volcanic eruptions or big earthquakes during the exit from the deep solar minima.

    http://michelecasati.altervista.org/significant-statistically-relationship-between-the-great-volcanic-eruptions-and-the-count-of-sunspots-from-1610-to-the-p.html

    Thoughts on Ether …

  6. Gail Combs says:

    Jaime Jessop says: “Of course, the volcanic eruptions themselves should probably not be considered as completely independent of solar activity…”

    Quite right. Seismic activity is NOT independent of solar activity:

    NASA:Volcanic eruptions and solar activity
    ABSTRACT
    The historical record of large volcanic eruptions from 1500 to 1980, as contained in two recent catalogs, is subjected to detailed time series analysis. Two weak, but probably statistically significant, periodicities of ~11 and ~80 years are detected. Both cycles appear to correlate with well-known cycles of solar activity; the phasing is such that the frequency of volcanic eruptions increases (decreases) slightly around the times of solar minimum (maximum). The weak quasi-biennial solar cycle is not obviously seen in the eruption data, nor are the two slow lunar tidal cycles of 8.85 and 18.6 years. Time series analysis of the volcanogenic acidities in a deep ice core from Greenland, covering the years 553-1972, reveals several very long periods ranging from ~80 to ~350 years and are similar to the very slow solar cycles previously detected in auroral and carbon 14 records. Solar flares are believed to cause changes in atmospheric circulation patterns that abruptly alter the earth’s spin. The resulting jolt probably triggers small earthquakes which may temporarily relieve some of the stress in volcanic magma chambers, thereby weakening, postponing, or even aborting imminent large eruptions. In addition, decreased atmospheric precipitation around the years of solar maximum may cause a relative deficit of phreatomagmatic eruptions at those times.

    Possible correlation between solar and volcanic activity in a long-term scale
    ABSTRACT
    Volcanic activity on Earth is described by special annual indices available since 1500. These indices have been compared with annual sunspot numbers… Using 21-yr running averages a striking similarity between these two time series is clearly seen. Volcanic activity is generally lower in periods of prolonged maxima of solar activity and higher in periods of prolonged solar minima. There is also a similarity between the spectra of these two series in the long-period range. Main peakes are located in the same periods in both series (200-215 yr. 100-105 yr 80-90 yr)….

    THE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SEISMIC ACTIVITY OF THE EARTH ON THE BASIS OF THE DRM-APPROACH.
    Introduction: As it is known, earthquake arises at sudden energy clearing which have been collecting for a long time as a result of tectonic processes in located zones of the earth’s crust and the top cloak. Thus occurs break of rocks, sometimes on many tens kilometers [1]. A line of correlations is known that connects seismicity with parameters of the Earth: in the speed of rotation of the Earth, a magnetic field, etc. [2]. Considering seismicity of the Earth is possible only together with its model of formation, evolution and the internal device…

    While analysing seismic activity of the Earth it is not difficult to notice the connection with solar activity. The considered line has essential negative correlation with the line of solar activity. The maximal earthquakes are observed during the minimum of solar activity or during the periods close to a minimum, and, on the contrary, in maxima of solar activity seismicity of the Earth accepts the least values. In the examined period three maxima of seismic activity are found out. The first, the strongest, falls at years of a minimum of solar activity, and others two – on a growth phase and recession of solar activity accordingly, that is for the period when there is the greatest number of large solar proton flashes. Thus, in time dependence of annual values of earthquakes there are the periods caused by geo-magnetic activity of the Earth, and the periods of smaller duration caused by solar flashes.

    The conclusion: As a result of processing lines the model describing dynamic of changes of seismic activity is allocated optimum on measures of quality. The forecast of lines for 24 months is constructed. Works on the further updating of DRM [7] are conducted. A number of lines of geophysical and geliophisical characteristics are processed. Data treatment of dynamics of baricentre of the systems the Ground – moon is planned with the purpose of an establishment of dependence, modeling of dynamics of change of lines and the forecast.

    Researches were carried out at financial support of the Russian Fund of Basic researches (the grant of the Russian Federal Property Fund 1-04-02-16633).
    (wwwDOT)planetary.brown.edu/m42/m42_67.pdf

    Effect of ENSO and volcanic events on the Sun-cloud link
    ABSTRACT
    Results of correlation studies between solar proxies and clouds suggest that there is a solar effect on the occurrence of clouds. However, there is a possibility that terrestrial quasi-periodic and sporadic phenomena, such as ENSO and/or major volcanic eruptions, which have an effect on the cloud formation, may influence the results of statistical studies of the Sun-cloud relation. We show that removing ENSO and volcanic years from the full-set analysis does not alter the results. Moreover, the correlation between clouds of different type and two solar proxies, UV irradiance and cosmic ray induced ionisation, is partly improved. This supports the idea that the solar signal affects clouds directly. An interesting result relates to an area in the eastern Pacific where the full-set analysis showed that the relationship between clouds and cosmic ray induced ionization is opposite to the global one. When ENSO and volcanic years are removed this odd correlation disappears, suggesting that in this particular area, the ENSO effect prevails over solar effects.
    (wwwDOT)mendeley.com/research/effect-enso-volcanic-events-suncloud-link/

  7. Gail Combs says:

    This document deserves an individual comment since it is worth looking at closely. The Japanese are very very focused on earthquakes and volcanoes and are not interested in lying about the issue for good reason

    Possible Correlation between Solar Activity and Global Seismicity Space Environment Research Center Kyishu Univ, Japan

  8. Gail Combs says:

    US geo-physicists are of course doing everything they can to “…disprove a long-held belief that changes in solar activity can be linked to increased earthquake activity.”
    http://phys.org/news/2013-04-link-solar-earthquakes.html

    Can’t allow the sun to have ANY influence on the earth at all now can we?

    The companion piece to that:
    US scientists significantly more likely to publish fake research, study finds

    I wonder if there is a correlation between an increase in government grant money and faked research?

  9. […] number of ice core records from as many different regions of Antarctica as possible.” – Click here to read the full article […]

  10. R J Salvador says:

    This is related but not exactly on topic. An annual response surface for the length of day, LOD, shows clearly the biannual movement of mass on the earth. The movement of aerosols would be dependent on the mixing action of the atmosphere. Below is a 3D response surface of the earth’s LOD from 1962 to 2013. The biannual humps are clearly visible. It’s nothing new just a different way to look at it. Pardon the excel graphics.

  11. That is exactly correct Rog.

    Absolutely. Salvatore recently posted a list of the major eruptions showing they nearly all took place when solar activity was low. Key point for this post though is that mainstreamers have been overegging volcanic effects to explain climate change because they underestimate the effect of solar variation.

  12. R J Salvador says:

    An 11 year response surface for the Sunspot cycle shows the changing shape and intensity of solar activity. Below are yearly sunspot values from 1700 to 2013 in 3D.

    It is more instructive if we tip the graphic and look down on it from a higher angle.

    In this graphic we are looking down at a time and sunspot intensity area. The amount of time the sunspot value has been below 50 is in blue. The increase in high sunspot intensity relative to time is a recent situation of the past 70 years.
    Again this is nothing new just a different way to look at it.

  13. tallbloke says:

    Hi R.J.

    Thanks for that, nice work.
    This one looks very interesting. Can the model be projected forward?
    http://s1311.photobucket.com/user/aequitas45/media/VEJSOC4000Fig1_zpsd7860cf8.png.html

  14. Kon Dealer says:

    This is the key line:

    “Antarctic sulphate accumulations 30-35% less than previously modelled.”

    Who would have thought that the models are no good?

  15. Gail Combs says:

    R J Salvador says:“….It is more instructive if we tip the graphic and look down on it from a higher angle.

    That is the graphic BEFORE the Leaf Blower stomps it flat….

    Very nice graphics BTW. It makes the Solar Grand Maximum of the 20th century very visible.

    See: A History of Solar Activity over Millennia

    Click to access 0810.3972.pdf


    for a vaccination to the Leaf Blower’s on going propaganda on Solar Activity.

  16. rychert says:

    Piers Corbyn covered this topic a few years ago at SC25.com. Solar Cycle 25 to end “Man Made Climate Change” myth – with comments by Piers Corbyn | Solar Cycle 25 http://sc25.com/index.php?id=10&linkbox=true

  17. Jaime Jessop says:

    Lots of useful links and info posted on this thread – great stuff. Just need to find the time to go through it all!
    Rog, I agree. 1. They downplay any link between solar activity and seismic/volcanic activity; 2. They have overestimated the cooling effect of sulphate aerosols in order to downplay the link between solar activity and climate change.

  18. TLMango says:

    Thanks for the link rychert. I like the comparison of the earths plates and slamming
    freight cars.

  19. Another interesting and inspiriting post TB!

    ————————————————
    Here is my contribution .
    ——————————–
    I have taken the liberty to note another relationship with Vukcevics fast and slow sun solar model and Micheal Casati’s correlation study (above) between significant volcanoes and the schwabe cycle

    (Note: VUKCEVIC fast and slow sun phases are 10 schwabes each phase )
    ————————–
    Findings
    There are significantly more volcanoes in the slow sun ( 10 * 11 yr schwabe = ~111 yr phase, than the fast sun ~111 yr phase

    I have used Michele Casati’s data

    http://michelecasati.altervista.org/significant-statistically-relationship-between-the-great-volcanic-eruptions-and-the-count-of-sunspots-from-1610-to-the-p.html

    and in particular his graphed correlations

    volcanoes vs schwabe cycle

    ———————————————
    Vukcevic’s fast sun/slow sun ( 10 schwabes each phase)
    ———————————-
    Approx’ VOLCANIC CORRELATION for each phase of fast / slow sun

    1600-1700 ….slow sun = 11 eruptions ( 10/11 at solar minimum)

    1700-1810….. fast sun = 5 eruptions ( 4/5 at solar minimum)

    1810 -1920…… slow sun = 12 eruptions ( 9/12 at solar minimum)

    1920- 2000 — fast sun (fast phase still underway.

    cycle 24 is the 9th schwabe out of the 10 schwabe fast cycle phase.. 9 out of 10 schwabes complete( if VUK agrees with that)
    = currently 6 eruptions ( 2 out of 6 at solar minimum)

    —————–
    As you can see. There are twice as many volcanoes in the slow sun phase and are far more likely to occur at solar minimum.
    I fact some good symmetry there 2 : 1

  20. Exactly volcanic activity picks up when the sun is quiet.

  21. linneamogren says:

    Any ideas as to why the Sun would effect volcanic activity? Or is it an unrelated correlation?

  22. oldbrew says:

    Volcanism and magnetism may be linked. The solar wind is a magnetic force.
    http://www.teara.govt.nz/en/map/9223/magnetic-field-strength-taupo-volcanic-zone

  23. oldbrew says:

    Also:

    ‘Natural fluctuations in the ocean temperature in the North Atlantic have a significant impact on the climate in the northern hemisphere. These fluctuations are the result of a complex dance between the forces of nature, but researchers can now show that solar activity and the impact of volcanic eruptions have led this dance during the last two centuries.’
    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/03/140331114502.htm

  24. Jaime Jessop says:

    Cosmic ray flux linked to volcanic eruptions:

    ” We examined the timing of 11 eruptive events that produced silica-rich magma from four volcanoes in Japan (Mt. Fuji, Mt. Usu, Myojin-sho, and Satsuma-Iwo-jima) over the past 306 years (from AD 1700 to AD 2005). Nine of the 11 events occurred during inactive phases of solar magnetic activity (solar minimum), which is well indexed by the group sunspot number. This strong association between eruption timing and the solar minimum is statistically significant to a confidence level of 96.7%. This relationship is not observed for eruptions from volcanoes with relatively silica-poor magma, such as Izu-Ohshima. It is well known that the cosmic-ray flux is negatively correlated with solar magnetic activity, as the strong magnetic field in the solar wind repels charged particles such as galactic cosmic rays that originate from outside of the solar system. The strong negative correlation observed between the timing of silica-rich eruptions and solar activity can be explained by variations in cosmic-ray flux arising from solar modulation.”

    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1342937X10001966

  25. oldbrew says:

    ‘It is well known that the cosmic-ray flux is negatively correlated with solar magnetic activity’

    So it’s not cosmic rays that affect clouds/climate per se – it’s solar magnetic activity.

    That’s how Piers Corbyn sees it I believe.