Periodicities in mean sea-level fluctuations and climate change proxies

Jennifer Marohasy has a new post “Revisionist Approach Destroys Information About Natural Cycles Embedded in Climate Data” where there is underlying interest for Talkshop readers. Mention of Ken Ring is perhaps not so good given a reputation for excessive claims, caveat emptor.

Her take is from an Australian perspective mentioning a Senator and the lead author is Australian.

Periodicities in mean sea-level fluctuations and climate change proxies: Lessons from the modelling for coastal management
R.G.V. Baker, , S.A. McGowan
BCSS, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, University of New England, Armidale, NSW 2351, Australia
Available online 12 July 2014

Elsevier so it is paywalled http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2014.05.027

2014 will be a SCORCHER!

Long-range weather forecast for UK reveals 2014 will be a SCORCHER!
BRITAIN is set to roast in a THREE-MONTH heatwave that could smash ALL summer weather records, forecasters claimed tonight.

Published: Wed, April 9, 2014
http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/469361/Long-range-summer-weather-forecast-for-UK-predicts-100-days-of-sun-and-record-temperatures

That was not the Met Office, wise. Couple of days ago (maybe 17th August) there was muttering about a ground frost in a few places if the wind falls light. Wind has been pulling in Artic air for some days now.

Night 17th/18th Exeter Airport dropped to 5.8C, far south west of England. Previous night Breamar Scotland 8.8C, traditionally the coldest place.

Central heating here wanted to trip on first thing in the morning over the past few days, mean temperature outside well below setpoint.

Streamer: a bird in flight that burns to death

credit: M. McClany

Every year a number of new words are added to the English Dictionary. As renewable energy spreads across the world, they will add their own unique terminology. Wind turbines are well known for chomping their way through thousands of birds and bats each year. While photovoltaics are relatively benign, while they are intact, solar plants that use hundreds of mirrors to focus the Sun’s energy, are far from environmentally friendly. Now they have supplied their own unique and grim word.

“Streamer” a bird that burns as it flys through the concentrated solar rays generated by a solar plant’s mirrors.

Safety vessel collides with Dong wind turbine off Liverpool, leaking fuel, listing

An hilarious story has turned up on WUWT via reader “saveenergy”

I took a peek at which vessel precisely, obviously some great big difficult to handle ship, err no. It’s a tiddler with thrusters, intended for manoeuvrability, close work. (the explanation of what happened is at the end of article)

Photos? You will have to find one yourself, all reasonable ones are copyright, no usage.

“The vessel is capable of serving the offshore industry in various tasks, such as: survey/ROV, seismic, crew change, accommodation, guard, chase [will do 11 knots], support, anti oil spill, seabed sampling and environmental surveillance.”

OMS Pollux

Nordic Offshore Marine

Slogan “The clever connection”

424 tonnes, is complete with Gymnasium. How about a lookout?
http://www.nordicoffshore.dk/nordic-offshore-projects/vessels

RNLI: “Lytham Lifeboat 3rd Mechanic Jon Trevorrow later said, “The casualty was making a good speed of 9 knots despite a list to port due to the weight of water on board.””
— http://rnli.org/NewsCentre/Pages/THREE-LIFEBOATS-AID-WIND-FARM-SUPPORT-VESSEL-REFUSED-ENTRY-TO-IRISH-SEA-PORTS.aspx

Satellite mission on high atmosphere electrical phenomena

This article appeared recently in a slightly different form on my own web site. 

A new university satellite is scheduled launch 2015[1] with a web site for the project available in English

Mikhail Lomonosov (1711 – 1765) helped establish what is now known as Moscow University, decree signed 1755, 250 years ago.

According to Lomonosov’s plan, there were originally three faculties. First all the students acquired a comprehensive knowledge in the field of science and humanities at the Faculty of Philosophy; then they could specialize and continue at the Faculty of Philosophy or join either the Law Faculty or The Faculty of Medicine. Lectures were delivered either in Latin, the language of educated people at the time, or in Russian. [2]

Aurora drawing

Atmospheric vertical circulation

Illustrations from a book published 1753. Text, perhaps embellished a little as these things are, “Mikhail Lomonosov – the Pioneer of Russian Science” nevertheless looks a good fellow.

The satellite is named Lomonosov.

Major news agency mentions disaster without global warming or climate change, try climate fluctuations

There is an unfolding disaster in the poor regions of central America from sustained drought.

I am reluctant to make much of a story involving people in trouble, it is however a good news matter if a needless focus on the daft has gone, focusing instead on where it matters. Put the effort there.

El Nino, which can last more than a year, significantly raises surface temperatures in the central and eastern areas of the tropical Pacific Ocean, a phenomenon linked to major climate fluctuations around the world.

“Central America braces for drought-linked food crisis”

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/08/14/uk-latam-drought-idUKKBN0GE1VD20140814

Are we seeing a change in the media, I hope so.

All is fair in love and renewables

In any ecosystem, the survival of two similar carnivorous species depend on at least two fundamentals, food and space. If food is plentiful but space is at a premium, then conflict between the two species is inevitable. The same applies to always hungry and fast spreading renewable energy developers.

A wind farm developer Seagreen, and a solar farm developer Tealing Park Solar Ltd, are at war over a former WW2 RAF base.

What happened to the atmosphere of Mars?

Mars-Earth comparison
[image credit: Wikipedia]

It’s an old question, and investigations are hotting up.

Phys.org reports: ‘On October 19, 2014, Comet Siding Spring will pass by Mars only 132,000 km away—which would be like a comet passing about 1/3 of the distance between Earth and the Moon.’

In other words, very close. And NASA’s MAVEN probe will arrive at Mars just in time to see the show.

Are some of Britain’s nuclear reactors on their last legs?

Heysham power station
[image credit: Belfast Telegraph]

Lurking in a NYT report on the recent shutdown of four nuclear reactors (three in the last week, one in June) for ‘safety checks’ is this sobering analysis:

‘The reactor problems highlight that most of Britain’s nuclear installations, which generate about 20 percent of the country’s electricity, are approaching the end of their lives. The four EDF reactors under investigation were commissioned in 1983 and are officially scheduled to be removed from service in 2019.’

Then comes the bombshell:

Now Arriving at Pittsburgh International: Fracking

Airport scene
[image credit: Wikipedia]

The New York Times reports on one advantage of owning a large block of land:

‘With a single well, drillers can bore down a few thousand feet, turn sideways and drill lateral wells up to two miles long. In other areas of Pennsylvania, that can mean having to secure permission from hundreds of property owners. The airport, though, is 9,000 acres with a single landlord.’

“It’s like finding money,” said Rich Fitzgerald, the county executive of Allegheny County, which owns the airport. “Suddenly you’ve got this valuable asset that nobody knew was there.”

Bob Fernley-Jones: Should there be new laws of thermodynamics?

Bob Fernley-Jones asks an important question needing wide discussion.

First, let’s quickly review the basics of the existing four or so laws.
[skip to dicussion]

Credit: Marc de Falco [1] (click full size)

• Zeroth Law: According to Arnold Sommerfeld, Ralph H. Fowler invented the title ‘the zeroth law of thermodynamics’ when he was discussing the 1935 text of Saha and Srivastava. They write on page 1 that “every physical quantity must be measurable in numerical terms”. They presume that temperature is a physical quantity and then deduce the statement “If a body A is in temperature equilibrium with two bodies B and C, then B and C themselves will be in temperature equilibrium with each other”… [Source Wikipedia]
• Law 1: The first law of thermodynamics is a version of the law of conservation of energy, adapted for thermodynamic systems. The law of conservation of energy states that the total energy of an isolated system is constant; energy can be transformed from one form to another, but cannot be created or destroyed… [Source Wikipedia]
• Law 2: …The German scientist Rudolf Clausius laid the foundation for the second law of thermodynamics in 1850 by examining the relation between heat transfer and work.[17] His formulation of the second law, which was published in German in 1854, is known as the Clausius statement: Heat can never pass from a colder to a warmer body without some other change, connected therewith, occurring at the same time. [Or] Heat cannot spontaneously flow from cold regions to hot regions without external work being performed on the system… [Source Wikipedia]
  This is the form of law 2 that has been well defined by the humorous fun of Flanders and Swann (1963) , but ordinary folks should be alerted that despite the truth of the above, there have been “definition refinements” that maybe could be renumbered to Law 2.1:
  • Law 2 Updated: The second law of thermodynamics states that the entropy of an isolated system never decreases, because isolated systems always evolve toward thermodynamic equilibrium, a state with maximum entropy… [And much more: source Wikipedia]

Climate quote of the week

Did I say that?
[image credit: simpsons.wikia]

“The fundamental laws of physics say that as the temperature goes up, it has to get warmer,” Liu says.

Nice work Professor. Homer Simpson couldn’t have put it better.

So you still take "climate scientists" seriously?

NOAA take two of three P3 hurricane hunters out of service

Image from NOAA press release

NOAA operate a number of hurricane hunter aircraft including three venerable P3-Orion turboprops for low level long duration surveillance.

Taking two out of service for maintenance work as the peak of the hurricane season approaches looks remiss.

I suppose that depends on the true role in 2014 in an era of satellites, radar and alternate aircraft. However according to wikipedia there is also the USAF 53d Weather Reconnaissance Squadron  flying into tropical storms, perhaps that is sufficient.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/53rd_Weather_Reconnaissance_Squadron

There again perhaps NOAA believe the season will be quiet… NOAA superstitious? That’s more like it, remove resource, the gods respond.

The story comes from Reuters

Retrofit leaves one plane to fly into U.S. East Coast storms

Clam fossils study reveals 10,000 year history of El Niño

Clams [credit: Wikipedia]

El Niño and its twin La Niña are under the spotlight this year as climate-watchers hunt for signs of expected activity that seems to have gone largely missing in recent years if compared to, say, the 1990s.

Has the strength of these phenomena changed in modern times? Apparently not.

‘The charts created by the research team suggest that the ENSO cycle does not have a predictable cycle and also that it has not been increasing in strength over the course of the Holocene as others have suggested.’

Scots to Launch Wind Farms Health Investigation Following Complaints

Scottish wind farm

A few days ago the Talkshop highlighted the sacking of a Danish professor which appeared to be connected to his research and strong views on wind turbine noise.

Now this:
‘The Scottish government has commissioned a report into the health effects of wind farms at 10 sites across the country, following concerns that many people may be suffering from the effects of infrasound emitted from the turbines.’

Solar hockey stick found by ‘The Hockeyschtick’

[credit: BBC]

‘What correlates with what’ may well be one of the key questions in climate matters.
Let’s see if any of this can shed light on any mysteries…

‘Solar physicist Dr. Leif Svalgaard has revised his reconstruction of sunspot observations over the past 400 years from 1611-2013.’

GCM forecasting of weather, track of Bertha

On 5th August 2014 I archived the US Navy graphic of the track of hurricane Bertha into just a storm. Today is the 10th August 2014 where a storm is about to arrive in the UK with forecast fairly strong winds and rain. [update] Forget to mention, the timing is correct, dot over England was for 18hrs 10th.

Paper proves Bill Nye’s faked ‘greenhouse effect’ experiment is based on the wrong ‘basic physics’

Science in action

The Hockeyshtick highlights a peer reviewed paper that puts media personality and ‘official climate science’ promoter Bill Nye in the spotlight.

‘Not only did the authors find that addition of the non-greenhouse gas Argon had similar heating effects to CO2, the Argon control actually heated up slightly more than in the greenhouse gas CO2 experiment, definitively proving that such experiments assume the wrong “basic physics” of radiation were responsible for the heating observed, instead of the limitation of convection due to CO2 having a greater density compared to air.’

The great diesel scandal

The Western world is now well into the ‘Repent at leisure’ phase following years of hysterical reaction to the hypothetical threat that was “Global Warming”. The mantra of  ‘reduce CO2 at all costs’ is now coming back to haunt the tax payer. The solution, as always, is to tax the public to nudge them in the right direction, which just happens to be completely opposite to the previous direction nudged earlier; meanwhile politicians pretend that these new taxes are for our own good, no matter the side effects. The latest example being extra tax on diesels entering Central London.

Top US politician wins an ‘award’

Pulled out of the hat

You might like this recent announcement from The Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP).

***
On July 27, SEPP announced the winner of this year’s April Fools award at the annual meeting of the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness (DDP). Each year SEPP conducts its annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a piece of coal on a pedestal. Readers of The Week That Was are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving, following these criteria:

# The nominee has advanced, or proposes to advance, significant expansion of governmental power, regulation, or control over the public or significant sections of the general economy.
# The nominee does so by declaring such measures are necessary to protect public health, welfare, or the environment.
# The nominee declares that physical science supports such measures.
# The physical science supporting the measures is flimsy at best, and possibly non-existent.

There were 20 nominations representing 4 countries and the States of California and Vermont.
The votes have been tabulated.

[Drum roll]