Study linking polar vortex chills to melting sea ice rejected by leading IPCC author

Posted: September 2, 2014 by oldbrew in alarmism, atmosphere, general circulation, sea ice, Uncertainty

Spot the polar vortex [image credit: BBC]

Spot the polar vortex
[image credit: BBC]


Before the usual media suspects get too worked up at yet another ‘study’ proclaiming something or other about humans and climate effects, let’s note what this well-known IPCC author thinks of it:

‘Kevin Trenberth, climate analysis chief at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, … said he doesn’t agree with Yoon’s study.’

‘His research points more to the Pacific than the Arctic for changes in the jet stream and polar vortex behavior, and he said Yoon’s study puts too much stock in an unusual 2012.’ – Yahoo News

Bear that in mind if/when the shrieking headlines appear.

Study links polar vortex chills to melting sea ice – Yahoo News UK.

Some Talkshop commenters may have their own ideas about the polar vortex, but let’s see.

Comments
  1. For Dr. Kevin E. Trenberth This is called “saving face”, when certain of a disaster created by same Kevin.

  2. Bob Weber says:

    Article second paragraph: “Researchers say that’s because of shrinking ice in the seas off Russia.” Odd how everything nowadays is Russia’s fault.

  3. Bob Weber says: September 3, 2014 at 1:01 am

    “Article second paragraph: “Researchers say that’s because of shrinking ice in the seas off Russia.” Odd how everything nowadays is Russia’s fault.”

    We are so tired of Syria, Iraq, Palestine, Israel. Russia is a breath of air. Watch what happens if we try to blame the Scandihoovians. Minnesota and upper Michigan will explode!

  4. Tenuc says:

    So in the weird world of Post Normal climate science cold is the new warm. Who’d a thunk it!

  5. oldbrew says:

    Trying to prove every weather and climate phenomenon is somehow related to an unfalsifiable non-theory at least gives those concerned a steady stream of work – at huge public expense of course.

    The HuffPost has taken the bait: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/09/02/polar-vortex-melting-sea-ice_n_5753476.html

    Their style is typified by another link on the same page saying:
    ‘Climate Change Will Ruin Hawaii, New Study Suggests’

    And pigs will be growing wings due to AGW…etc. etc.

  6. oldbrew says:

    NASA have unearthed satellite images of polar sea ice going back to the 1960s.
    Some unexpected results e.g. Antarctic sea ice varied enormously in a few years.

    Mentioning ‘natural variability’ is no longer frowned upon it seems.

    “By extending the satellite record back to the 1960s, we can understand more about the history and natural variability in things like sea ice extent in the Arctic, and the Antarctic,” said David Gallaher, technical services manager at NSIDC. The modern satellite record of sea ice goes back only to 1979.

    – See more at: http://www.thegwpf.com/long-lost-satellite-data-reveal-new-insights-to-climate-change/

  7. This assertion has been proven false time and time again.

  8. ren says:

    What is the impact on the sea ice has the polar vortex?

    Us see the pressure in the lower stratosphere and the course of the jet stream.


    You can see that in the place blockade the jet stream directed toward Antarctica.
    Now let’s see a decline of ice in Antarctica.

    A clear as the sun.

  9. ren says:

    On the animation you can see this clearly.


  10. ren says:

    This does not mean that in September will be record sea ice in the Antarctic (or October). Temperature above the polar circle is below average.

  11. ren says:

    Sorry it should be in Antarctica. [amended – mod]

  12. It is the track of the circumpolar vortex (the polar jet stream) in the troposphere that is being considered here and not the polar vortices which are confined to the stratosphere above the poles.

    The behaviour of the circumpolar vortex is subject to competing forces from above and below which affects the degree of zonality / meridionality of the jet stream tracks which in turn affects global cloudiness and the proportion of solar energy able to enter the oceans.

    It all depends on the gradient of tropopause height between equator and poles which is subject to variation that allows the air masses to slide to and fro latitudinally below the tropopause.

    Solar changes alter the heights most above the poles and ocean cycles alter the heights most above the equator.

    It is the constant interaction that gives us climate change.

    Yoon’s study is flawed because the long period of declining Arctic ice before 2000 did not have the effect on jet stream meridionality that he claims for the period after 2000.

    It was the change in solar activity between cycles 23 and 24 that kicked in around 2000 to alter the jet stream tracks.

  13. ren says:

    As I wrote the loss of sea ice in the Arctic stopped.

  14. oldbrew says:

    ren: there’s another huge vortex centred SE of New Zealand (see ‘orthographic’ link above)

  15. ren says:

    “We investigate the relationship between spectral solar irradiance (SSI) and ozone in the tropical upper stratosphere. We find that solar cycle (SC) changes in ozone can be well approximated by considering the ozone response to SSI changes in a small number individual wavelength bands between 176 and 310 nm, operating independently of each other. Additionally, we find that the ozone varies approximately linearly with changes in the SSI. Using these facts, we present a Bayesian formalism for inferring SC SSI changes and uncertainties from measured SC ozone profiles. Bayesian inference is a powerful, mathematically self-consistent method of considering both the uncertainties of the data and additional external information to provide the best estimate of parameters being estimated. Using this method, we show that, given measurement uncertainties in both ozone and SSI datasets, it is not currently possible to distinguish between observed or modelled SSI datasets using available estimates of ozone change profiles, although this might be possible by the inclusion of other external constraints. Our methodology has the potential, using wider datasets, to provide better understanding of both variations in SSI and the atmospheric response.”
    https://scirate.com/arxiv/1408.3559

  16. ren says: September 6, 2014 at 9:32 am

    (“We investigate the relationship between spectral solar irradiance (SSI) and ozone in the tropical upper stratosphere.” )

    “We investigate, We find, Additionally, we find, Using these facts, we present, Using this method, we show”.

    Are you pregnant, or just have pockets of mice. What is this “we”? Did you yourself do anything useful or measureable?

  17. ren says:

    Will Janoschka