‘Brightpoints’: New clues to determining the solar cycle

Posted: September 3, 2014 by oldbrew in Solar physics

Active solar regions [image credit: NASA/Goddard]

Active solar regions
[image credit: NASA/Goddard]


New research claims to offer ‘a new set of observations to explore the drivers of solar activity beyond only sunspots.’

The researchers say they have found ‘a new marker to track the course of the solar cycle — brightpoints, little bright spots in the solar atmosphere that allow us to observe the constant roiling of material inside the sun.’

“Thus, the 11-year solar cycle can be viewed as the overlap between two much longer cycles,” said Robert Leamon, co-author on the paper at Montana State University in Bozeman and NASA Headquarters in Washington.

More here: 'Brightpoints': New clues to determining the solar cycle — ScienceDaily.

Comments
  1. Does nothing to explain the Maunder Minimum .

  2. oldbrew says:

    ‘Solar cycles theories are best tested by making predictions as to when we will see the next solar minimum and the next solar maximum. This research paper forecasts that the sun will enter solar minimum somewhere in the last half of 2017, with the sunspots of the next cycle appearing near the end of 2019.’

    We’ll have to wait and see if it stacks up against observations.

  3. tallbloke says:

    “This process, from migratory start to finish at the equator takes 19 years on average, but is seen to vary from 16 to about 21 years.”

    Hmmm, interesting.

    “55-degrees seems to be a critical latitude for the sun and something we need to explore further.”

    They should start by considering the rate of solar rotation at that latitude. They will find it is around the average rotation rate between equator and poles. There’s something else interesting about that they need to know but I’m only going to give them one clue at a time.

  4. Doug Proctor says:

    All the while deep in the Sun, physics is happening that causes the 22-year cycle.

    And that is ……

    We still legitimately argue about what lies at the centre of the Earth. We still argue legitimately about what happens to make mountains rise, the crust to fall, to have interior areas (like the one I’m drinking in Martinis right now in Palm Springs, California) that oddly appear depressed. There is much we don’t know; it is vanityon the one hand and fear on the othere that stop us from admiting our ignornance.

  5. Lawrence A P Wilson says:

    I wonder if these researchers have examined whether there is a correlation with the varying accelerations and decelerations of the Sun as it repositions around the SSB per the SIM phenomenum, and beyond that as to any possible causitive relationship

  6. Lawrence A P Wilson says: September 5, 2014 at 1:30 am

    “I wonder if these researchers have examined whether there is a correlation with the varying accelerations and decelerations of the Sun as it repositions around the SSB per the SIM phenomenum, and beyond that as to any possible causitive relationship”

    Do the four inner planets orbit the Sun’s COM or the SSB? Is there some scaling factor? What does this do to the angular momentum of the Earth and Moon?

  7. oldbrew says:

    SSB questions and related matters are covered in many of the PRP papers.

    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/prp-special-issue/

  8. tallbloke says:

    Lawrence A P Wilson says: September 5, 2014 at 1:30 am

    “I wonder if these researchers have examined whether there is a correlation with the varying accelerations and decelerations of the Sun as it repositions around the SSB per the SIM phenomenum, and beyond that as to any possible causitive relationship”

    Do the four inner planets orbit the Sun’s COM or the SSB? Is there some scaling factor? What does this do to the angular momentum of the Earth and Moon?

    Uh-oh. 🙂

    Will, this is a very cogent question, and one to which Lawrence and us talkshoppers have different answers. Unless Lawrence has reconsidered?

    The talkshop position is that the inner planets orbit the Sun, and the outer planets, due to their greater distance from the CoG, their higher angular momentum, and their slower orbits, probably come closer to orbiting the SSB, since the Sun is itself, on average, orbiting the SSB too.

  9. Tenuc says:

    Doug Proctor says: September 4, 2014 at 2:25 am
    “All the while deep in the Sun, physics is happening that causes the 22-year cycle.

    And that is ……

    We still legitimately argue about what lies at the centre of the Earth…”

    Correct. Until we properly understand the fundamentals, all that improved observation will do is move the current theory into a slightly different direction. What we really need is a new paradigm based on a more in-depth understanding of physics and a broader view of energy transfer between bodies in the solar system and the wider universe.

    On that topic, it is interesting that hurricanes and tornados. are seldom seen higher than latitude 55 or exactly on the equator…

    Same effect, same cause???

  10. oldbrew says:

    Tenuc: try ‘The Equatorial Anomaly’ by Miles Mathis

    Click to access equat.pdf

  11. DD More says:

    The SDO has a Facebook page with lots of good visuals and looks at different solar readouts.
    See at https://www.facebook.com/NASA.Little.SDO

  12. tallbloke says: September 5, 2014 at 11:31 am

    WJ: (“Do the four inner planets orbit the Sun’s COM or the SSB? Is there some scaling factor? What does this do to the angular momentum of the Earth and Moon?”)

    Uh-oh. 🙂

    “Will, this is a very cogent question, and one to which Lawrence and us talkshoppers have different answers. Unless Lawrence has reconsidered?”

    Roger,
    Has anyone considered any limit to the relm where the conservation of momentum apply?
    Conservation is fine only if unconstrained. Example, string round shaft of toy gyroscope held in one hand. Pull smartly on string. GENERATE much angular momentum. Push thumb against spinning wheel, angular momentum DISAPPEARS. It appears that work can generate momentum and that momentum can create sensible heat interchangably, likely not reversably. What just are the exact laws for conservation of momentum? Are they unknown by academics?

    “The talkshop position is that the inner planets orbit the Sun, and the outer planets, due to their greater distance from the CoG, their higher angular momentum, and their slower orbits, probably come closer to orbiting the SSB, since the Sun is itself, on average, orbiting the SSB too.”

    Makes sense to me! But if that is the case, is there any evidence that some balance of the EMR flux from Sol and the EMR exitance from Earth, play any significant role in the surface temperature of Earth? What really is the “extent” of this scam? Are the bright points and dark spots but indicators of other kind of energy transfer (work) at planetary distances?
    I am looking for the wooden stake, to hammer through the heart!!

  13. oldbrew says:

    Again, there’s a related PRP paper – by Hans Jelbring: ‘Energy transfer in the solar system’

    Click to access prp-1-165-2013.pdf

  14. oldbrew says: September 6, 2014 at 11:58 am

    Again, there’s a related PRP paper – by Hans Jelbring: ‘Energy transfer in the solar system’

    Click to access prp-1-165-2013.pdf

    Thank you Stuart! I’ve had the paper for about a year but never really read the contents.
    I can certainly see why the ClimAstrologists did not want it published. This Earth seems to have the fine capability to adjust EMR in and EMR out. I wonder what the limits of such ability are. What happens when these other forces test that limit? Ice age? -will-

  15. oldbrew says:

    Worth noting perhaps:

    ‘McIntosh and his colleagues began tracking the size of different magnetically balanced areas on the sun, that is, areas where there are an equal number of magnetic fields pointing down into the sun as pointing out. The team found magnetic parcels in sizes that had been seen before, but also spotted much larger parcels than those previously noted — about the diameter of Jupiter.’
    [bold added]

  16. oldbrew says:

    Miles Mathis has waded in on the back of the ‘brightpoints’ report.

    ‘The Cause of The Solar Cycle’ — no less 😉

    Click to access cycle.pdf

    He says: ‘Upon reading the NASA data, Jupiter is the first place I looked. The NASA writers even give us a hidden clue, though it is doubtful anyone but me tripped over it [wrong - see my comment above]. They say: the team found magnetic parcels in sizes that had been seen before, but also spotted much larger parcels than those previously noted — about the diameter of Jupiter.’

    ‘Even I didn’t get the message the first time I read that. It took a second reading.’

    He finishes by saying the current solar cycle won’t end until about September 2021:
    ‘The highest point of the [solar] maximum won’t arrive until many months after the first reports of it, and the cycle will remain in this strange extended maximum for more than year and a half.’

    Note – what MM means by ‘maximum’ is discussed here:
    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2014/09/08/miles-mathis-the-cause-of-the-solar-cycle/comment-page-1/#comment-87928

  17. tallbloke says:

    Heh, let the fun begin. I like Miles’ intuitive leaps, we’ll see how well his predictions stand up. I’ll put them on the predictions page and repost his paper.

  18. Tenuc says: September 5, 2014 at 11:37 am
    “On that topic, it is interesting that hurricanes and tornadoes, are seldom seen higher than latitude 55 or exactly on the equator…Same effect, same cause???”

    It is all the same cause and effect, the lunar declinational tides pull equatorial air off of the ITCZ as it crosses from N/S or S/N, the Coriolis effect causes the perturbed air mass to over run the surface speed as it moves poleward, resulting in the cyclonicity that mixes the static charge gradient Positive at the equator to Negative at the poles resulting in the precipitation and the release of energy from the condensation/freezing water.

    When the homopolar generator effects of the interactions of the solar wind and the strength of the magnetic couplings between the earth and the center of the galaxy causes charging or an increase in the pole to equator potential till summer solstice when we pass the galactic center and head around to the winter side of the weather patterns.

    The in rush of additional Positive charges in Spring, as the pole to equator gradient increases, requires the ion carriers to be whole atoms, particles, air molecules, aerosols as condensational nuclei, with the warm moist fronts overriding cooler soils and polar air masses, which results in Tornado generation.
    The discharge cycle from mid summer till winter solstice releases free electrons from the polar air mass side which meets the positive equatorial fronts, then the Coriolis effect, generates the large cyclonic storms, hurricanes/typhoons as both the thermal and ionic levels even out globally.

    Now through 2015 we will be in the minimum lunar declinational angle at culmination of the 18.6 year pattern, and the earth will be passing the outer planets in the fall/winter NH months, so the most turbulent meridional flows will come as cold winter snows and blizzards, where back in 2005 when the declination angle of the moon was maximum at culmination and the outer planets were being passed in mid summer, the most active weather was in the hurricane/typhoon seasons.

  19. tallbloke says:

    Richard, I like your thinking. And your forecasting, which seems to be on the money. I wonder if the data and theory in Brian Tinsley’s global electrical circuit papers will help confirm your ideas?

  20. At the end of the Themis satallite mission they swung two of the four into an orbit about the moon and are taking measurements from there in relation to the magnetosphere and it’s interaction with the solar wind, they are not aware of the changes heliocentric conjunctions have but it shows up in their data. I have not found a user friendly set of data from the project yet.
    http://cse.ssl.berkeley.edu/artemis/mission-overview.html

    This animation shows the positions of the five THEMIS spacecraft, enabling them to observe the full process of magnetic reconnection and the resulting auroral substorm.

    http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2006/space_weather_link.html