![Solar timeline [image credit: Wikipedia]](https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/minimum.jpg)
Solar timeline
[image credit: Wikipedia]
This is a follow-on from another recent Talkshop post:
The principal cause of bi-decadal climatic variation – The Hale cycle, or something else?
The subject is a paper that appeared in 2009 which relates to the discussion.
Hopefully the following abstract of it speaks for itself.
————-
Paper: Influence of the Schwabe/Hale solar cycles on climate change during the Maunder Minimum
Authors: Hiroko Miyahara1, Yusuke Yokoyama and Yasuhiko T. Yamaguchi
Abstract. We have examined the variation of carbon-14 content in annual tree rings, and investigated the transitions of the characteristics of the Schwabe/Hale (11-year/22-year) solar and cosmic-ray cycles during the last 1200 years, focusing mainly on the Maunder and Spoerer minima and the early Medieval Maximum Period. It has been revealed that the mean length of the Schwabe/Hale cycles changes associated with the centennial-scale variation of solar activity level. The mean length of Schwabe cycle had been ∼14 years during the Maunder Minimum, while it was ∼9 years during the early Medieval Maximum Period. We have also found that climate proxy record shows cyclic variations similar to stretching/shortening Schwabe/Hale solar cycles in time, suggesting that both Schwabe and Hale solar cycles are playing important role in climate change. In this paper, we review the nature of Schwabe and Hale cycles of solar activity and cosmic-ray flux during the Maunder Minimum and their possible influence on climate change. We suggest that the Hale cycle of cosmic rays are amplified during the grand solar minima and thus the influence of cosmic rays on climate change is prominently recognizable during such periods.
[click on ‘PDF’ – red lettering above ‘Contributed Papers’]
Tallbloke's Talkshop 
Currently very high cosmic radiation.
Cosmic radiation at the South Pole.
State of ozone over the southern polar circle.
It is associated with the magnetic field.
‘We have also found that climate proxy record shows cyclic variations similar to stretching/shortening Schwabe/Hale solar cycles in time, suggesting that both Schwabe and Hale solar cycles are playing important role in climate change’
The question of the cause of the ‘stretching/shortening’ of the solar cycles rears its head again.
“The cosmic rays are modulated by solar wind and the interplanetary magnetic field
and hence the flux of cosmic rays at the earth varies with the 11-year solar activity cycle,
while, the polarity of solar dipole magnetic field determines the trajectory of cosmic rays
in the heliosphere and thus the flux of cosmic rays at the earth varies depending also
on the polarity of solar dipole magnetic field (Kota and Jokipii 2001). As is shown in
Figure 1, the patterns of cosmic ray flux over solar cycles slightly differ depending on
the polarity of solar dipole magnetic field, resulting in the component of 22-year cycle
in cosmic-ray variation. This feature is very helpful in distinguishing the effect of cosmic
rays on climate change from the other effects caused by e.g. irradiative outputs of the
Sun.”
” The complex features of solar magnetic and cosmic ray cycles, such as the variable length of the “11-year” cycle, the subsequent lengthening/shortening of the “22-year” Hale cycle, the amplification of the 22-year cycle in cosmic rays at grand solar minima, may be able to explain some of the complex features of climate change at this time scale.”
Must see what is happening with the magnetic field of the sun.
It appears this that the 24 cycle can be quite prolonged.
” The complex features of solar magnetic and cosmic ray cycles, such as the variable length of the “11-year” cycle, the subsequent lengthening/shortening of the “22-year” Hale cycle, the amplification of the 22-year cycle in cosmic rays at grand solar minima, may be able to explain some of the complex features of climate change at this time scale.”
Complex features may be able to explain some complex features? Sorry, sounds like gibberish 😉
It’s not gibberish it’s…. complicated. 🙂
The neutrons that reach the lower layers of the atmosphere created by the repeated collisions of the primary protons (GCR) and protons secondary with the particles atmosphere. Therefore concentrated in around the the magnetic poles.
My observations indicate that even multi-day change in the amount of cosmic radiation may affect the change of ozone over the polar circle.
Of course also happens other mechanisms related to changes in solar activity.
ren says:
September 23, 2014 at 9:51 am
The ‘solar polar field strength’ seems to have lost its ‘bounce’.
Look back in the data. A similar flattening of the curve has happened before at this point in the cycle.
OMG, the modern temp has soared past the MWP and is rocketing up like ….. like ….. a Hockey stick ?
The neutrons react immediately to solar activity, because GCR are constantly in the background.
You can see the importance of the sun and Earth’s magnetic field.
Stephen Richards this current measurements.
http://neutronm.bartol.udel.edu/~pyle/RTPlots.html
We combined a new 10Be record from Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, comprising more than 1,800 data points with several other already existing radionuclide records (14C from tree rings and 10Be analyzed in polar ice cores of Greenland and Antarctica) covering the Holocene. Using principal component analysis, we separated the common radionuclide production signal due to solar and geomagnetic activity from the system effects signal due to the different transport and deposition processes. The common signal represents a low-noise record of cosmic radiation, particularly for high frequencies, compared to earlier reconstructions, which are only based on single radionuclide records. On the basis of this record, we then derived a reconstruction of total solar irradiance for the Holocene, which overall agrees well with two existing records but shows less high-frequency noise. A comparison of the derived solar activity with a record of Asian climate derived from δ18O in a Chinese stalagmite reveals a significant correlation. The correlation is remarkable because the Earth’s climate has not been driven by the Sun alone. Other forcings like volcanoes, greenhouse gas concentrations, and internal variability also have played an important role. To quantify the solar influence on the Earth’s climate and to distinguish between the different forcings, climate model simulations are required for the Holocene, employing the new dataset of total solar irradiance. The dataset will be available online at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration paleo server (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/forcing.html).
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3341045/#B21
Sorry.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3341045/figure/F3/
Along the lines of what is being posted here is my take.
As far as solar activity it is different now then it was before 2005 and just how much different will remain to be seen. Post 2005 being much quieter in contrast to years before 2005.
.
Many of us are of the opinion that the chances of cooling going forward are near 100%.
CO2 is a non player in the global climate picture as past historical data has shown.
CO2 and the GHG effects are a result of the climate not the cause in my opinion.
I maintain these 5 factors cause the climate to change and they are:
Initial State Of The Climate – How close climate is to threshold inter-glacial/glacial conditions
Milankovitch Cycles – Consisting of tilt , precession , and eccentricity of orbit. Low tilt, aphelion occurring in N.H. summer favorable for cooling.
Earth Magnetic Field Strength – which will moderate or enhance solar variability effects through the modulation of cosmic rays.
Solar Variability – which will effect the climate through primary changes and secondary effects. My logic here is if something that drives something (the sun drives the climate) changes it has to effect the item it drives.
Some secondary/primary solar effects are ozone distribution and concentration changes which effects the atmospheric circulation and perhaps translates to more cloud/snow cover- higher albebo.
Galactic Cosmic Ray concentration changes translates to cloud cover variance thus albedo changes.
Volcanic Activity – which would put more SO2 in the stratosphere causing a warming of the stratosphere but cooling of the earth surface due to increase scattering and reflection of incoming sunlight.
Solar Irradiance Changes-Visible /Long wave UV light changes which will effect ocean warming/cooling.
Ocean/Land Arrangements which over time are always different. Today favorable for cooling in my opinion.
How long (duration) and degree of magnitude change of these items combined with the GIVEN state of the climate and how they all phase (come together) will result in what kind of climate outcome, comes about from the given changes in these items. Never quite the same and non linear with possible thresholds.. Hence the best that can be forecasted for climatic change is only in a broad general sense.
In that regard in broad terms my climatic forecast going forward is for global temperatures to trend down in a jig-saw pattern while the atmospheric circulation remains very meridional giving rise to more persistence in weather patterns and perhaps more extremes .
TB says: ‘It’s not gibberish it’s…. complicated’
Solar wind strength determines cosmic ray concentration. What determines solar wind strength?
The authors say: ‘We suggest that the Hale cycle of cosmic rays are amplified during the grand solar minima…’
That’s because low solar wind = high cosmic rays and vice versa. Isn’t that well-known, and aren’t they begging the question by calling it a ‘Hale cycle of cosmic rays’?
‘…and thus the influence of cosmic rays on climate change is prominently recognizable during such periods.’
Or is it the influence of the solar wind with cosmic rays just being another way of measuring its strength? That seems to be Piers Corbyn’s view when he says the solar wind itself contains hundreds of times more charged particles than the cosmic rays reaching Earth.
Yes, but Solar particles don’t achieve the high energies of the CR’s making into the lower atmosphere.
I agree with Ren that the solar polar field strength is indicating this cycle will be very long. The extended weak maximum is also lending support to this.
Oldbrew the point is what shows the graphics.
Anyone able to provide a link to the 14C data used? Not found it so far.
I can take a look and try to see what they have done. I think it is fairly simple.
They refer to Stuiver so this might be it?
Click to access UPL12784_Stuiver98Radiocarbon___copie.pdf
Salvatore,
A good summary of the external forcings on climate but you give scant attention to internal climate forcings which can have an equally profound effect. I’m talking PDO/AMO in particular and the transfer of heat around the globe via the thermohaline circulation. Particularly during periods of instability during transitional phases from glacial to interglacial, internal variability probably has a significant influence on abrupt (esp. regional) climatic change.
I agree. I have mentioned those before in other post from time to time.
@Salvatore:
Nice list. I’d only add that the lunar / tidal cycle has effects also. Keeling & Worf paper has tidal mixing about as strong as wind driven mixing for Sea Surface Temps. Cycles tend to sync with other planetary driven / solar cycles due to orbital resonance (IMHO) will be hard to sort out which is the actual causal part.
Changed the direction of the wind. Now smoke over Iceland will reach the UK.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=26.89,48.51,553
I think that this is consistent with studies Vukcevic.
We can already see a lock polar vortex over eastern Siberia at an altitude of about 27 km.Jest a bad forecast for North America.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-22.15,78.02,365
The total change in height of the caldera Bardarbunga from 12 September.
‘The mean length of Schwabe cycle had been ∼14 years during the Maunder Minimum, while it was ∼9 years during the early Medieval Maximum Period. We have also found that climate proxy record shows cyclic variations similar to stretching/shortening Schwabe/Hale solar cycles in time’
The duration of a solar cycle could be more important than the number of sunspots although the two are related.
I remember the paper being discussed. I don’t buy it. Here’s something to consider:
Usoskin, I.G.; Mursula, K.; & Kovaltsov, G.A. (2001). Heliospheric modulation of cosmic rays and solar activity during the Maunder minimum. Journal of Geophysical Research 106(A8), 16039-16046.
Click to access 2000JA000105.pdf
One item that could put a wrench is galactic cosmic ray modulation are super nova in the vicinity of earth say within 10 light years which would skew data in my opinion.
Ren thanks for the info. Excellent.
@Ren: Still wild in the SH, a lot of chill wind etc.. I’ve been able to follow the moderate complexity of negative AAO (except for ice-record-making bursts), and solar/GCR-induced blocks and troughs funneling air north from near the ice. I assume the 10hPa height ozone ‘shadow’ has a cooling effect too. My word, that ‘double stratospheric vortex’ looks fierce. So far, so good, until more complexity arrives….Brett Keane
Brett Keane
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-196.07,-50.86,365
The GWPF seems to have been reading this post – or maybe it’s just a coincidence 😉
http://www.thegwpf.org/influence-of-solar-cycles-on-climate-change-during-the-maunder-minimum/
I understand that in the negative phase of the solar magnetic field (black line), the galactic radiation is stronger. Especially during the minimum. Thus, the temperature drops also more.
The black line and mag. north seems only to be linked to the blue line magnetic north.
I found a remarkable correlation between the drift of the magnetic poles and global temperatures, see my website. I couldn’t find a cause though I suspected the drift of the poles somehow affected how space weather was influencing terrestrial weather. If anyone can enlighten me it would be appreciated.
Miyahara’s papers & presentations are provocative and her delivery is outstanding, but the cycle lengths proposed by Miyahara are not believable. I suggest it’s not sensible pretending we have 14C & 10Be production records. Circulation is a MUCH bigger deal (in shaping record properties) than anyone likes to admit. Let’s be careful to not misinterpret what Miyahara is illustrating about episodes of NH solar-climate synchronization.
Regards
OldGifford, SCD is the same for Schwabe & Hale, so it doesn’t matter (i.e. you’ll get the same pattern by any mechanism). The thing that’s important is to recognize is that all solar-climate beats are a function of SCD (the tachometer). This shapes mixing oscillations around the longer-term central limit determined by accumulated insolation. (The heater does the heating, but the fan mixes stuff around at an adjustable rate.) The spatial pattern of crust depression is coupled (via water).
Had a ding-dong with Dr.S about this few weeks ago
I was away for a while, but Konrad mentioned on WUWT that Tb TS had post recently:
Here is what I just posted on WUWT:
Was the 28 years GCRs modulation pattern during Maunder minimum caused by solar or the earth’s magnetic field ?
Number of factors ranging from global atmospheric and oceans circulation to the plate tectonic movements affects the length of day (LOD) on different time scales.
Inner (solid) and outer (liquid) core follow these changes with certain lag resulting in the internal differential rotation. The conducting inner core is strongly coupled by Lorentz forces to the circulating liquid of the outer core, the area where the earth’s magnetic field is generated, result is secular change in the earth’s field, which also modulates the GCRs.
This illustration (http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LODws.htm ) shows:
Top graph:
blue –rate of change in the Earth’s rotation based on the astronomical observations ( msec, left hand scale)
green – high pas filter out (msec, right hand scale)
magenta – 22 year cosine
1910 -1930 anomaly possibly due to the major geo – magnetic disturbance (http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/images/image018.jpg ) , cause not known
Lower graph: spectral composition
18.5 years – lunisolar tides
22 years – solar Hale cycle
29 years – main feature of the ‘current’ decadal variability in the Earth’s rotation, cause not known.
Reply
vukcevic
September 29, 2014 at 12:04 pm
p.s:
By combining measurements of Earth’s magnetic field from stations on land and ships at sea with satellite data, scientists were able to isolate six regularly occurring waves of motion taking place deep within Earth’s liquid core, with varying timescales. ….
Their analyses isolated six slow-moving oscillations, or waves of motion, occurring within the liquid core. The oscillations originated at the boundary between Earth’s core and its mantle and traveled inward toward the inner core with decreasing strength. Four of these oscillations were robust, occurring at periods of 85, 50, 35 and 28 years.
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=2420
Vukcevic says: ’29 years – main feature of the ‘current’ decadal variability in the Earth’s rotation, cause not known.’
22 Jupiter = 9 x 29 years (261y) = 239 J-Earth conjunctions
That’s an approximation: 797 J = 29 x 326 years (9454y) = 787 x 11 J-E is closer.
That may or may not be relevant but there it is.
Hi OB
Exact number is 29.7
I was thinking more of 3 x (J&S = 19.86)/2 = 29.8
J&S at the front and the tail end of heliosphere, which would make it a magnetic rather than gravity physics.
Gotta laugh – posted this on 22 September, saying at the start it was a 2009 paper.
2 days later it turned up on the GWPF, then WUWT picked it up from them without realising the date it was published. Now on WUWT it says:
‘Note to readers: I was given a tip to this story at the GWPF, which had a recent date on it of 9/24/14, and I originally labelled this as a “new” paper when it actually was from 2009. The title has been changed to reflect this. My apologies – Anthony’
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