Whoa… solar blast on hitting current sheet fold

Posted: October 19, 2014 by tchannon in Astrophysics, Solar physics, solar system dynamics

Michele left a comment on suggestions but the surprise came later

Big Ar 2192 and flare X1.1 + CME

Image

Note the Solex date: 14th October 2014, today is the 19th.

I looked at the Spaceweather archive for the 14th and of course the authors did not know what was about to happen

SOLAR SECTOR BOUNDARY CROSSING: High-latitude auroras are possible on Oct. 14th when Earth crosses through a fold in the heliospheric current sheet. This is called a “solar sector boundary crossing,” and NOAA forecasters estimate a 25% chance of polar geomagnetic storms when it occurs.

15th and fantastic photos more on 16th

AURORAS ON EARTH: A CME sideswiped Earth’s magnetic field on Oct. 14th. Shortly thereafter, Earth passed through a fold in the heliospheric current sheet (a “solar sector boundary crossing”). The combined effect was to ignite a spectacular light show around the Arctic Circle. “Auroras were running across the sky as soon as the daylight faded,” reports Frank Olsen who sends this picture from Sortland, Norway:
http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=15&month=10&year=2014

A huge sunspot is appearing over the solar limb.

http://spaceweather.com/
Select archive date, to right of page

Lots more going on.

Post by Tim

Comments
  1. tchannon says:

    I’ve flipped the spaceweather link from 14th as published to 15th otherwise the aurora photo doesn’t show on the link. Sorry about that.

  2. Michele says:

    Time machine

    Question …
    tidal or electric connection ?
    😉

    22-08-1859 — 10 days before carrington event

    daltonsminima.altervista.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/SPE.jpg

    02-08-1972

    02-11-1960

    31-10-1989

    Bye,
    Michele

  3. Tenuc says:

    There was an M7.3 earthquake off the Coast of Central America on 14 Oct 2014 – I wonder if there is any connection to the solar event?

  4. tchannon says:

    If there is a list of these sector crossings does it correlate with a subset of quakes? Subset because many have local reasons.

    I can think of a possible way of trying to identify such a match. Quite a lot of work.

  5. Michele says:

    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/forecasts/SRS/1020SRS.txt

    Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
    2192 S13E43 251 1560 Fkc 22 32 Beta-Gamma-Delta

    Area = 1560

    Ar 2192 is the region’s largest cycle 24?

    previous

  6. tchannon says:

    In the article I mentioned “A huge sunspot is appearing over the solar limb.”

    AW has now posted on this

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/10/22/solar-flare-danger-massive-sunspot-the-size-of-jupiter-takes-aim-at-earth/

  7. oldbrew says:

    Interesting that the sunspot is ‘about the size of Jupiter’.
    Bear in mind the recent post here about ‘brightpoints’ on the Sun.

    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2014/09/03/brightpoints-new-clues-to-determining-the-solar-cycle/

    The linked report noted:
    ‘The team found magnetic parcels in sizes that had been seen before, but also spotted much larger parcels than those previously noted — about the diameter of Jupiter.’

    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/09/140903104743.htm

    Coincidence or not?

  8. lsvalgaard says:

    tchannon says:
    October 20, 2014 at 9:18 pm
    If there is a list of these sector crossings does it correlate with a subset of quakes? Subset because many have local reasons.

    There is a list: http://wso.stanford.edu/SB/SB.Svalgaard.html
    Overall there is no correlation with earthquakes:

    No doubt, since there are thousands of event you can cherry pick the ones that occur when you want. But that would not be valid science.
    [moderator: I TAKE OFFENCE AT YOU SUGGESTING A LACK OF INTEGRITY. — TIM CHANNON]

  9. lsvalgaard says:

    I TAKE OFFENCE AT YOU SUGGESTING A LACK OF INTEGRITY. — TIM CHANNON
    Well, how would you select your ‘subset’, except as the ones that show an effect?

  10. tallbloke says:

    Leif:how would you select your ‘subset’

    By magnitude I would expect.

  11. lsvalgaard says:

    My plot shows there is no effect at magnitudes greater than 6 and 7. So be specific: how would the selection proceed?

  12. tallbloke says:

    Another factor comes into play with high magnitude quakes. The majority of them occur when the sunspot number is lower than average.

  13. Michele says:

    @ Rog and lsvalgaard

    http://michelecasati.altervista.org/significant-statistically-relationship-between-the-great-volcanic-eruptions-and-the-count-of-sunspots-from-1610-to-the-p.html

    Quote : “…….The significant tests, conducted with the chi-square χ ² = 7,782, detect a p-value equal to 0,005. Applying a correction of Yates, p-value assume the value of 0,009….”

    and

    Quote : “…..It is possible to observe a relationship between large earthquakes with a magnitude of M8.3+ and the well-known two periods included in the eleven-year cycle of the solar magnetic activity: solar minimum and solar maximum (Chart 3). However, this analysis did not show any statistically significant relationship….”