Scientist Paul Pukite has built a simple model involving Total Solar Irradiance , the Chandler wobble and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation which does an impressive job of emulating the Southern Oscillation index from Darwin and Tahiti. Here’s the result:
The El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) behavior can be effectively modeled as a response to a 2nd-order Mathieu/Hill differential equation with periodic coefficients describing sloshing of a volume of water. The forcing of the equation derives from QBO, angular momentum changes synchronized with the Chandler wobble, and solar insolation variations. One regime change was identified in 1980.
Keywords: ENSO, El Nino
PACS: 92.05.Df, 92.10.am, 92.70.-j
The full PRL submitted paper is here.
So, here’s the challenge. If we can predict TSI, the Chandler wobble and the QBO, we can predict ENSO with some level of confidence. An exciting prospect. Ian Wilson has already pointed the way with his article last year showing how the periodicity of the CW and QBO is linked to cyclic celestial phenomena. Ian also published a series of posts linking ENSO with lunar timings. I observed that the Sun appears to trigger El Ninos too. Rick Salvador made great progress with solar prediction in his PRP paper.
Now we need to pull these threads together and develop our own model emulating and predicting CW and QBO. Then using Paul Pukite’s model we can potentially predict ENSO.