Archive for December, 2014

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A great resource for people against the wind farm blight. Well done STT.

STOP THESE THINGS

smorgasbord Just made for sharing.

STT is the site that the wind industry and its parasites just love to hate.

STT kicked into action on 26 December 2012: Boxing Day 2014 marked 2 years of giving the beleaguered wind industry and its dwindling band of parasites and spruikers hell.

We’ve clocked over 640,000 views and given our loyal readers 827 posts – which spell out – in clear and simple terms – the economic and environmental nonsense that is wind power – and the harm caused to communities around the world by giant fans.

And, we keep picking up dedicated followers – 10,000 so far, from all corners of the globe, including a bunch of canny Scots, Canadians, Americans, English, Welsh, Irish, Cornish, Danes, Germans, Greeks and plenty from Downunder.

We’ve gone back through the archive and put together a veritable Smörgåsbord – just perfect for sharing – with links to…

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The Greenpeace ‘Archaeologist’

Posted: December 30, 2014 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics

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Greenpeace activists’ ‘Nazca Archeologist’ turn s out to be… a Greenpeace activist.

Shub Niggurath Climate

When the Nazca lines fiasco broke, Greenpeace’s response was to assure the world it worked with an archaeologist, taking every possible precaution:

Questions arose immediately:

Peru’s deputy Minister of Culture Luis Jaime Castillo went so far as to say the archaeologist was ‘the person you have to identify’

An archaeologist was identified in a New York Timesreport of the incident. It named Wolfgang Sadik, an ‘archaeologist-turned activist’ who we were told had ‘set aside his studies to work for Greenpeace’. The NYT relied on a Reuters video to relay how Sadik seemed to be directing ‘some of the other activists’. It quoted photographer Rodrigo Abd:

“The archaeologist explained where to walk and where not to walk,”… “There was a great concern not to even leave a mark of your shoes on the ground, and if a rock was moved put it back in its place.”

The article further quoted Wolfgang Neubauer…

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This is a partial reblog of a post by the Scottish sceptic. Head on over to his site to read the full article.

The Climate wars – toward a washup review.
the Scottish Sceptic

limitsmadness-300x240

…………………………..Time…………………………….

As I said a while back (The limits of Climate Hysteria) we’ve now reached the stage in these “climate wars” whereby the climate itself is the main combatant forcing the ranks of the delusional public academia, to be dragged kicking and screaming to the reality of our ever varying climate, as the climate itself now imposes discipline where the idiots in the so called “institutions” of so-called “science” failed.

In other words, when we only had a few years of data and a lot of climate variables, it was far far too easy to “investigate” the most worrying trends and then to further cherry pick the data. Then to write up this cherry picked data and publish in buddy review journals, put on Wikipedia as “settled science” and try to convince the world your religion has a credible basis. But, the more data that is acquired and the more people look into every nook and cranny and not just the short-term worrisome trends, the more the real picture of a continuously varying climate emerges and so the less important any one short-term change appears. The more people who gather data, the less any individual can cherry-pick the data to e.g. claim “snow is disappearing” in a warm winter or “floods are increasing” in a floody year or “droughts are increasing” in a dry year.

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Green policies drive up emissions

Posted: December 29, 2014 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics

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Roger Helmer MEP points out some of the fallacies in the ‘precautionary principle’ as applied to ‘climate change’.

Roger Helmer MEP

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It’s the holiday season.  So a web-site called “Science2.0” has come up with a helpful list of twelve ways to respond to those infuriating climate change deniers that you’re likely to meet in the bar while on holiday. Not the top holiday problem on everyone’s list, but I guess they’re trying to help.  Even though I’ve yet to meet anyone who denies that the climate changes.

There is all the usual tendentious stuff about junk science and tabloid slogans.  They recycle the old “97% of scientists” myth that has been comprehensively rebutted.  But they come up with one point that perhaps justifies a response.  Author Will Grant suggests: Ask them this: “What’s worse, the majority of climate change scientists being wrong but we act anyway, or climate change deniers being wrong and we don’t?”

Well, Will, there is a powerful case that even if the IPCC is right, which looks increasingly…

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Cool weather

Posted: December 29, 2014 by tchannon in Analysis, Surfacestation, weather

Been away for a variety of reasons, has been a horrible few weeks including frenetic work on software workarounds. Several personal matters were far worse. Lets hope that is the end of it, more stuff keeps on dumping on me.

The weather is a tad chilly in England, went down to -6.8C at Katesbridge Northern Ireland last night (27th into 28th) [UPDATE] and what happened next? See comments and link to another blog article with data, went off the bottom of plot shown here –Tim][UPDATE 2, -8.8C ]

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It might drop further tonight, flat anti-cyclone calm over the UK, unusually clear skies but there is still humidity to freeze out.

We had a remarkable day today in southern England, clear sunny all day with flat calm, just right to look at insolation and radiation balance.

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Top Debunker Of The Year

Posted: December 27, 2014 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics

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Whole lotta ‘estimating’ going on. And it has increased dramatically. Why? Infilling from non-rural stations into rural raises the ‘adjusted’ temperature according to Steve Goddard.

Real Science

Hardly a day goes by without expert comments like this appearing in comment sections, like this one from yesterday.

ScreenHunter_5592 Dec. 27 10.29

All reported warming in the US over the past 25 years is due to infilling fabricated data.

ScreenHunter_5147 Dec. 12 21.27

USHCN has 1,218 stations in their database. Prior to 1990, they typically recorded temperatures at about 97% of these stations. But for some reason, USHCN has been reporting monthly temperatures at a smaller and smaller percentage of stations since 1990, and now about 30% of monthly temperatures are completely missing.

What NCDC does in those cases, is to fabricate temperatures for the missing stations. The graph below shows the percentage of stations which have fabricated data, which is increasing in a hockey stick.

ScreenHunter_5149 Dec. 12 21.43

The station data being fabricated is dominantly from rural stations, which are being infilled with surrounding urban stations

ScreenHunter_5178 Dec. 13 12.17

Fake temperatures are marked with an “E” in their final database, as seen below in the 2008-2011 January-June…

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The Truth About Davey’s Energy Savings

Posted: December 27, 2014 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics

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Paul Homewood eviscerates Ed Davey’s latest attempt to explain away his utter incompetence as an energy minister.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

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Ed Davey has been stung into defending his disastrous energy policies, following revelations that his department had disgracefully attempted to hide data, showing that electricity prices would soon be 40% higher, as a result of climate policies.

The above letter was published in last week’s Sunday Telegraph. Unfortunately, he is being rather economical with the truth.

First, let’s recap on the energy savings which Davey says will make us so much better off. The table below is from the data that DECC tried to hide.

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https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/estimated-impacts-of-energy-and-climate-change-policies-on-energy-prices-and-bills-2014

The so-called savings are listed under 2).

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Earth's Axial Tilt, or Obliquity [Credit: Wikipedia]

Earth’s Axial Tilt, or Obliquity [Credit: Wikipedia]


This Atlantipedia report (reproduced below) from 2010 concerns research by English-born George Dodwell, who held the post of Government Astronomer for South Australia for 43 years (1909 – 1952) until his retirement. He came across a study by a Professor Drayson who cited ancient astronomical observations and put forward a revision to standard Earth precession theory which Dodwell found ‘untenable’, but he became interested in the data.

Dodwell: ‘it seemed to me worthwhile to trace out more clearly just how much, and why, the ancient and mediaeval observations of the obliquity of the ecliptic, on which Professor Drayson based his conclusions, differed from Newcomb’s internationally accepted formula for the secular, or age-long, variation of the obliquity. These observations went back to values given by Strabo, Proclus, Ptolemy, and Pappus in the early centuries of the Christian era. They indicated a consistent and increasing divergence in past ages from the values calculated by means of Newcomb’s formula.’ [bold added]

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Third in a trilogy of guest posts from Ed Hoskins. This one looks at how much temperature would be reduced if we committed economic suicide.

Temperature reduction outcomes from de-carbonisation
Ed Hoskins MAarch (Cantab)  BDS (Lond).

To quantify what might be achieved by any political action for de-carbonization by Western economies, the comparative tables below show the remaining effectiveness of each 100ppmv tranche up to 1000ppmv, with the total global warming in each of the five diminution assessments.  These estimates depend on the calculations set out in the following associated essay:

https://edmhdotme.wordpress.com/2014/09/13/the-diminishing-influence-of-increasing-carbon-dioxide-co2-on-temperature/

The table below shows the likely range of warming arising from these divergent (sceptical and IPCC) views, (without feedbacks, which are questionably either negative or positive: but probably not massively positive as assumed by CAGW alarmists), that would be averted with an increase of CO2 for the full increase from 400 ppmv  up to 1000 ppmv.Screen Shot 2014-08-10 at 11.33.54The results above for countries and country groups show a range for whichever scenario of only a matter of a few thousandths to a few hundredths of a degree Centigrade.

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Stephan Lewandowsky, that scion of psycho-psience who recently had a paper libelling climate sceptics retracted for its poor ethical standards, has given an interview which ends with this gem:

Lewdicrous

One thing that I would point out is that it’s very important for people to be skeptical and anticipate that people will be misleading to the public. Some of the misinformation that’s out there is not accidental. I think there’s quite a bit that’s put into the public discourse in order to have a political effect. It’s supposed to be wrong, but effective.

I think we need to illustrate this important point with some examples. So instead of this years climate quiz, we’ll have a barnstormer of quotes about climate that have been “put into the public discourse in order to have a political effect.” – Add your favourites, with links if possible, below.

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Merry Christmas from the GWPF

Posted: December 22, 2014 by tallbloke in humour
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The Global Warming Policy Foundation sends seasons, greetings.

Xmas-GWPF

Here’s another guest post from Ed Hoskins. This one deals with the IPCC’s own figures fro the effect of CO2 on global tamperature, demonstrating that due to the logarithmic limitation as this trace gas increases, future warming will be limited to within beneficial limits.

The diminishing influence of increasing Carbon Dioxide CO2 on temperature
Ed Hoskins MAarch (Cantab)  BDS (Lond).

The temperature increasing capacity of atmospheric CO2 is theoretically plausible, but its influence is known and widely accepted to diminish as its concentration increases. It diminishes logarithmically with increasing concentration.

Global Warming advocates and Climate Change sceptics both agree on this. IPCC Published reports, (TAR), acknowledge that the effective temperature increase caused by growing concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere radically diminishes with increasing concentrations. This information has been presented in the IPCC reports. It is well disguised for any lay reader, (Chapter 6. Radiative Forcing of Climate Change: section 6.3.4 Total Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gas Forcing Estimate) [i].

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The Cost Of Liz Truss’ Nuclear Future

Posted: December 21, 2014 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics

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Paul Homewood points up more holes in government thinking on energy.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

New DEFRA Secretary, Liz Truss, was given a bit of a mauling by Andrew Neil last week, but what drew my attention was her constant reference to expansion of nuclear power.

So, let’s see how that might work out.

Current capacity looks like this.

GW
Coal 21
Gas 35
Oil 2
Nuclear 10
Hydro 4
Wind 11
Bio 2
TOTAL 85

With peak demand running close to 60GW, consumption likely to rise during the next decade, and the need for a sensible reserve, we would certainly need at least 90GW of capacity by 2030.

Wind and solar cannot be included in any calculations of capacity, as they are intermittent, while all but 1GW of current nuclear at Sizewell B is due for closure well before 2030.

Assuming that the current level of gas capacity remains in place as standby, we would need 55GW of nuclear capacity, equivalent…

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Ole Humlum: Climate Indices November Analysis

Posted: December 20, 2014 by tallbloke in Analysis, climate
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Ole Humlum, one of the PRP contributors, has emailed me the climate4you November roundup of global temperature records and other climate metrics from the various providers. Clear analysis with informed commentary, the full document is available here.

ole-humlum-nov14

Solar contiguous activity cycle 23/24

Posted: December 20, 2014 by tchannon in Astrophysics, Solar physics

At first sight this Brazilan paper in Astronomy & Astrophysics is relatively uninteresting if you are familar with sunspot activity, appears to be another general look using waveletts.

Two features strike me as worthy of highlighting

  • a double burst of activity during cycle 23, not obvious from sunspot data alone
  • continuing activity right through the 23/24 transition

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Extract from paper Fig. 5, my highlight of strong X activity post the cycle 23 sunspot peak.

Wavelet analysis of CME, X-ray flare, and sunspot series

M. R. G. Guedes, E. S. Pereira and J. R. Cecatto

A&A 573 A64 (2015)

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201323080

(access with registration, large PDF 17.7MB)

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Why all research findings are false

Posted: December 19, 2014 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics

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An aeronautics expert writes sense about science. At the edge of design and testing in this field, the only thing between you and the field is thin, sharp-cold air.

Some disciplines force you to consider more precautionary principles than you could shake a climatologist at. But test pilots are adventurous and live life to the full. They push the edge hard in to see how it pushes back

The Devil's Neuroscientist

(Disclaimer: For those who have not seen this blog before, I must again point out that the views expressed here are those of the demonic Devil’s Neuroscientist, not those of the poor hapless Sam Schwarzkopf whose body I am possessing. We may occasionally agree on some things but we disagree on many more. So if you disagree with me feel free to discuss with me on this blog but please leave him alone)

In my previous post I discussed the proposal that all¹ research studies should be preregistered. This is perhaps one of the most tumultuous ideas that are being pushed as a remedy for what ails modern science. There are of course others, such as the push for “open science”, that is, demands for free access to all publications, transparent post-publication review, and sharing of all data collected for experiments. This debate has even become entangled with age-old faith…

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Guest post from Ed Hoskins
A comparison of both the Capital Cost and Energy Production Effectiveness of the Renewable Energy in Europe.

The diagrams and table below collate the cost and capacity factors of Renewable Energy power sources, Onshore and Off-shore Wind Farms and Large scale Photovoltaic Solar generation, compared to the cost and output capacity of conventional Gas Fired Electricity generation.

Screen Shot 2014-12-16 at 08.16.07

The associated base data is shown below:

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Welcome post from people who know about polar bears.

polarbearscience

NOAA’s list of purported evidence for harm being caused to polar bears by Arctic warmingis short and weak. It puts the gloomiest spin possible on the current well-being of an animal with all the earmarks of a healthy, well-distributed species.

Arctic report card 2014 screencap_Dec 18 2014

This year, polar bears are virtually the only species that NOAA mentions in their Arctic Report Card – they’ve put all their icon-eggs in one leaky basket [what happened to walrus??]. But polar bears are doing so well that to make an alarming case for polar bears as victims of Arctic warming, many important caveats had to be left out or misrepresented. Some details given are simply wrong.

This year’s polar bear chapter was penned by IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group chairman Dag Vongraven (you might recall his email to me earlier this year) and a polar bear conservation activist from Polar Bears International (whose battle…

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CET: No increase in extremes in recent years

Posted: December 19, 2014 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics

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Nice analysis of UK temperature records punctures MET-O’s ‘increasing extreme weather’ meme touted by their ennobled mouthpiece, Dame Julia of the Marshes.

First images from NASA OCO-2 satelite

Posted: December 18, 2014 by Andrew in atmosphere, data

imageNASA has released the first images from its Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2)  at the AGU conference today. (more…)