CET: No increase in extremes in recent years

Posted: December 19, 2014 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics

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Nice analysis of UK temperature records punctures MET-O’s ‘increasing extreme weather’ meme touted by their ennobled mouthpiece, Dame Julia of the Marshes.

Comments
  1. Stephen Richards says:

    My impression was that several cold records have been broken in recent years. eg. Coldest Dec in 100 yrs 2009>

  2. tallbloke says:

    This one needs attending and countering. I bet Rich Pancost and Lewandowsky will be there.

    Cabot Lecture: Responding to Climate Risk: Making Climate Science Work for Society
    Tue 3 February 2015, 18:00-19:30
    SSL Lecture Theatre, Priory Road Complex, 12 Priory Road, Clifton BS8 1TU

    The impact of human activity on our climate has become increasingly clear: with the IPCC stating that “Human influence on the climate system is unequivocal”. It has become clear that we are taking the planet into uncharted territory and changing the risk of extreme weather and climate events. Our exposure to these risks is also changing as a result of changes in how we live and a rapidly growing global population.

    Climate science is now moving beyond questions of global average surface temperature change, and is now responding to questions about whether extreme weather such as heat waves, wet winters or flash flooding will become more or less frequent as the climate changes. This change in thinking requires the science to move on to more complex and high resolution simulations of what our climate is likely to be like across timescales from decades to centuries ahead.

    This information allows society to make informed decisions about climate change mitigation and adaptation, and will help communities to prepare for weather and climate extremes across timescales.

    Professor Dame Julia Slingo of the Marshes, Met Office Chief Scientist, will give this Cabot Institute lecture co-organised by Bristol Festival of Ideas and part of Bristol 2015. The talk will include a panel discussion from some leading Cabot academics and an opportunity for questions from the audience at the end. Julia Slingo will be made a special Cabot Institute Distinguished Fellowship in honour of her work in climate science at the event.

  3. oldbrew says:

    ‘This information allows society to make informed decisions about climate change mitigation and adaptation, and will help communities to prepare for weather and climate extremes across timescales.’

    Whoa! Information? It’s the output from models that everybody knows are wildly inaccurate and can’t even predict the present or recent past.

    This is exactly the type of smoke-and-mirrors spin-doctoring that needs to be eradicated from climate ‘science’ if it ever wants to be taken seriously.

    ‘Climate science is now moving beyond questions of global average surface temperature change’

    Yes, that one failed miserably so time for version 2.0😉

  4. oldbrew says:

    xmetman: ‘I’m not sure that I accept that there has been an increase in Central England Temperature [CET] records in the last few decades as the following news blog from the Met Office claims’

    It’s true unless the figures are wrong – here’s the MetO chart:

  5. clivebest says:

    It is hardly surprising that there are more ‘warm’ records broken in recent decades than ‘cold’ records because of a long term warming trend in CET. This warming trend is independent of recent CO2 increases and has been occuring since 1650. Nor has this trend accelerated or changed since 1900.

    The linear trend is 0.026C/decade and seems likely to be a slow recovery from the LIA. If you select just CRUTEM4 stations within UK and Ireland and area average them then they show little if any change since 1940. Winter 2010 was the coldest since 1947.

  6. wayne says:


    This one indicates no large number of warm records being set. Looks like one year exceeded that peak in apx 1780. Is someone slingoing adjustments about on these records too?

  7. As for rainfall, the wettest decade since 1766 was the 1870’s. The last decade only ranks 7th wettest.

    http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/12/14/is-britain-getting-wetter/

    Just what the theory would predict, eh??

  8. michael hart says:

    Well I can report from deep central England that everything looks pretty much the same as when I was a child. Don’t panic.