AGU presentation argues that NE Pacific centennial trend is mostly natural

• GC33H-07Atmospheric controls on northeast Pacific temperature trends and variations, 1900-2012

Wednesday, December 17, 201403:16 PM – 03:28 PM

• Moscone West
• 3005

Over the past century, northeast Pacific coastal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and land-based surface air temperatures (SATs) display multidecadal variations associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, in addition to a warming trend of ~0.5 to 1°C. Using independent records of sea-level pressure (SLP), SST and SAT, this study investigates NE Pacific coupled atmosphere-ocean variability from 1900 to 2012, with emphasis on the coastal areas around North America. We use a linear stochastic time series model to show that the SST evolution around the NE Pacific coast can be explained by a combination of regional atmospheric forcing and ocean persistence, accounting for 63% of nonseasonal monthly SST variance (r = 0.79) and 73% of variance in annual means (r = 0.86).

Dave Quast: Sierra Club Gets an F in “Fracking 101”

Reposted from Energy in Depth

by Dave Quast dave@energyindepth.org Los Angeles, Calif.

The Sierra Club, founded in San Francisco in 1892 by legendary conservationist John Muir, was once a clarion voice for the preservation of public lands and environmental stewardship. To note that the group has grown increasingly distant from its roots is an understatement. Its decline, which we have covered previously, unfortunately moves on apace with the release of its latest video: “Fracking 101.”

Following in the “ban fracking” activist tradition of believing that actors (and whatever Yoko Ono is) somehow confer scientific legitimacy to anti-scientific polemics, the video features a voice-over by Edward James Olmos, who we will assume was unaware that the scripted words he was paid to read are the opposite of the truth.

Introducing the animated video in the Huffington Post, current Sierra Club executive director Michael Brune wrote:

“…fracking and other dirty fuel development is bad for public health, bad for the climate, and bad for the economy.”

While this is likely all you need to know about the seriousness of today’s Sierra Club, let’s examine the claims made in the video.

Douglas Carswell: Frozen out from cheaper bills by #greencrap energy policy

From the Yorkshire Post, UKIP MP Doug Carswell on the reasons behind big fuel bike price hikes:

GOVERNMENT energy policy, put in place by Ministers of all three established parties, is pricing people out of being able to heat their own homes.

The cosy consensus over energy policy here in Westminster is squeezing living standards across the country. According to the index of domestic fuel and light prices, helpfully reproduced by the House of Commons Library, prices have changed fairly dramatically over the past 40 years.

From the early 1980s through to the early noughties, there was a slow, gradual fall in prices; it was a 20-year period of customers getting what they tend to get in a free market, capitalist economy – more for less.

Suddenly and dramatically, that picture changed in the early noughties. Since then we have seen a rapid rise in prices – sharper, indeed, than that experienced during either of the two oil shocks of the 1970s.

Dual-fuel household energy bills in 2014 for the average home are forecast to be almost £1,400. That represents a real-terms price increase of over 50 per cent in a decade during which average household incomes stagnated.

Oooh Look! A Squirrel!

The BBC reports on a major new source of ‘carbon’. apparently, squirrels are going to kill us all according to climate scientist Dr Sue Natali, from Woods Hole Research Center in Massachusetts.

If ground squirrels are adding nitrogen to an area – and that area doesn’t have plants because they dug them up – this may result in increased loss of carbon from the system

Watch out for those tree felling squirrels, a falling tree will kill you as surely as a falling wind turbine.

100m Turbine collapse: Not bolts this time – weld failure in the main tower

De Bilt reports on yet another serious turbine failure. This time the 100m structure folded at a weld line some 30m off the ground. This is of great concern. Whereas most catastrophic failures are due to installation errors at the base bolts, this is a problem with the specification or execution of the construction of the monocoque structure – the main tower.

There’s a fundamental problem here. When steel is welded, the structure of the material either side of the joint, and the weld itself is different to the rolled steel sheet. This inevitably creates a location where stress gets concentrated more as the structure ages.

67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. A single body that has been stretched- Part 1

.
.
1st in a Series of 4 posts by Talkshop contributor ‘scute’ examines Comet 67P and find it to b a stretched body rather than a contact binary. Navigate to the other 3 parts via the homepage.

67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko- A Single Body That's Been Stretched

Below are two photos of comet 67P/Churyumov- Gerasimenko. The first is a close-up of the so called body, the second is a portion of the head. These two areas have numerous matching points showing that they were once joined together. It therefore follows that 67P/C-G was once a single body that has since been stretched, resulting in the two lobes we see today.

67P/C-G is therefore not a contact binary as has been suggested. Nor is it an unstretched single body that has been eroded to form the separate head and body.

As it’s clear the comet was stretched, it must have been subjected to one of two scenarios. It either underwent a close approach to Jupiter under the Roche limit in the distant past or it underwent spin-up to around a 90-120 minute rotation period which would overcome its gravitational pull. The former scenario would need to allow stretching…

View original post 499 more words

Peter Morecambe: Institutional Climate Science, Prospects for Independent Researchers and Some Results

Guest post from Peter Morecambe aka ‘Galloping Camel’

CLIMATE SCIENCE

The Kyoto Protocol

Elites around the world tend to believe that rising levels of CO2 in our atmosphere will cause catastrophic climate changes. Collectively they wield enough power to shape energy policies in many nations according to commitments laid down in the “Kyoto Protocol” and subsequent accords. It is interesting to compare the fate of the Kyoto Protocol based on the work of “Climate Scientists” such as Michael Mann with that of the Montreal Protocol based on the work of people like McElroy.

The Montreal Protocol essentially banned the production of Freon and similar compounds based on the prediction that this would reduce the size of the polar “Ozone Holes”. After the ban went into effect the size of the ozone holes diminished. This may mean that the science presented by McElroy and his cohorts was “Robust” or it may be dumb luck. Either way, McElroy has credibility and “Skeptics” are ridiculed. The Kyoto Protocol did not fare so well.

BBC News – Arctic sea ice volume holds up in 2014

On tour in the Arctic
[credit: US Navy]

Now that the so-called ‘climate summit’ is out of the way, the BBC finds itself forced to admit that reports of the impending death of Arctic sea ice were greatly exaggerated. There’s even talk of ‘modest growth’ – shock horror!

Arctic sea ice may be more resilient than many observers recognise.

While global warming seems to have set the polar north on a path to floe-free summers, the latest data from Europe’s Cryosat mission suggests it may take a while yet to reach those conditions.

[Straw-clutching going on there?]

Doug Proctor: The Lima Declaration – In Denial of Disunity and Despond

Guest post from Talkshop regular Doug Proctor

The Draft Decision coming out of the Lima, Conference of the Parties (COP20) meetings of 01-12 December 2014 is now available. The summary is only 4 pages long (the fifth is a blank Annex). It is short but an interesting read for what it doesn’t demonstrate: a commitment to create binding commitments with respect to either CO2 emissions or adaptation maneuvers for anyone on anything up to and, it would appear, including, the upcoming December 2015 meeting in Paris.

The draft was created as a series of semi-bullet points, though instead of “bullets” it uses action words to signify decisions made by the 195 Parties to the conference. But we should not be deceived that the action words mean “action” in the common sense of “doing something”. These are more intellectual action words, like “affirming”, “noting”, “confirming” etc. In effect, “We agree to keep talking about the subject, even perhaps around the subject, but we do not agree to step up and start doing anything related to the subject of CO2 emissions”. This can be construed as a cynical interpretation, but I argue (below) that a close read says it is not.

GWPF Welcomes Non-Binding And Toothless UN Climate Deal

.
.
Lord Lawson calls for suspension of Climate Change Act

Watts Up With That?

Press Release 14/12/14

Lord Lawson: After Lima, UK Climate Change Act Should Be Suspended

London 14 December: Dr Benny Peiser, the director of the Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF), has welcomed the non-binding and toothless UN climate agreement which was adopted in Lima earlier today.
Dr Peiser said:

“The Lima agreement is another acknowledgement of international reality. The deal is further proof, if any was needed, that the developing world will not agree to any legally binding caps, never mind reductions of their CO2 emissions.”
“As seasoned observers predicted, the Lima deal is based on a voluntary basis which allows nations to set their own voluntary CO2 targets and policies without any legally binding caps or international oversight.”

“In contrast to the Kyoto Protocol, the Lima deal opens the way for a new climate agreement in 2015 which will remove legal obligations for governments to cap or reduce CO2 emissions…

View original post 79 more words

Obama: “The price of energy will necessarily skyrocket” – Now in UK too!

Back before he took office, Obama set out his stall for his pogrom against affordable energy. The mail has breaking new of a report the government has tried to suppress:

By TOM MCTAGUE, DEPUTY POLITICAL EDITOR FOR MAILONLINE

PUBLISHED: 12:52, 14 December 2014 | UPDATED: 14:16, 14 December 2014

Family electricity bills are set to soar by almost £350 within 15 years – to pay for the Government subsidies for green energy.

Official figures — initially withheld by ministers — reveal the price of electricity will rocket by 60 per cent as wind farms and other green projects take over traditional coal-burning power stations.

The cost of electricity will jump from £131 per megawatt hour to some £206 by 2030, the Government estimates. It means that the average household bill will rise from £589.50 to £927.

Homes which only use electricity could see their bills rise by as much as £440 a year.

Sea Level Plummeting At Fastest Rising Location On Earth

.
.
How fast is the Pacific cooling? Pretty fast by the look of the sea level data.

Real Climate Science

According to experts at the University of Colorado, sea level east of the Philippines is rising at about 15 mm/year. However, their own data shows sea level at that location falling 36 mm/year since late 2010.

ssh_anomaly.nc

View original post

Ferenc Miskolczi: The Greenhouse Effect and the Infrared Radiative Structure of the Earth’s Atmosphere

Ferenc Miskolczi

Well here’s a nice surprise. Out of the blue, Dr Ferenc Miskolczi has dropped a link onto Tim Channon’s thread, which goes to his major new paper, published by the SEI. So we are privileged to be among the first to read it and start a discussion. It challenges the entire basis of the IPCC AGW theory by deriving a theoretical atmosphere which fits observations and demonstrates stability of the Earth’s radiative balance. Thanks Ferenc!

Ferenc Mikolczi 2014 Abstract

Eclipses, Moon cycles and Inner solar system Observations – open thread

This is an open thread for Eclipses, Moon cycles and Inner solar system Observations to run in parallel with Ian Wilson and Paul Vaughan’s technical discussion.

Questionable Time #118

.
.
A wry look at the #BBCQT Brand – Farage knockabout.

Questionable Time

Good morrow lemmings and a very merry Dimblemas to you all! We’re in Canterbury for this edition, and lemme tell ya, it’s a real doozy. What even is a doozy. I don’t know. This is merely the first bout of confusion and distress you are no doubt about to experience in this week’s razzmatazz rendition of Questionable Time. Onwards!

There are actually more women on this panel than men, but who cares about that! It’s time to let the chaps speak for once. Where would we be without them

First up is a question about petty adversarialism. It is somewhat predictably answered by…petty adversarialism? Actually, no, for these are the five minutes at the beginning where everyone pretends to be ‘mature’ and ‘diplomatic’ before inevitably descending into the standard shit-slinging that goes on every week. When will they learn? At this point panellists shouldn’t even try to fight it, but…

View original post 1,335 more words

Search for the missing heat to continue: No sleep ’til Paris

Nice Freudian slip from Suzanne Goldenberg, or Grauniad typo? You decide.

Nicola Scafetta: Fatal Error in Benestad and Schmidt 2009 paper on Solar Forcing

Repost from Roger Pielke Sr’s weblog. Important this isn’t lost, because it shows a fatal error in Schmidt and Benestad’s paper. A paper still relied on by the IPCC in AR5 to dismiss solar forcing as an important climate variable, five years after Nicola demolished it. Benestad and Schmidt claim they successfully rebutted Scafetta’s exposure of their fatal error, something Scafetta vigorously disproved. We’ll take a look at that part of the controversy later.

Roger Pielke Sr’s original intro:
On July 22 2009 I posted on the new paper on solar forcing by Lean and Rind 2009. In that post, I also referred to the Benestad and Schmidt 2009 paper on solar forcing which has a conclusion at variance to that in the Lean and Rind paper.

After the publication of my post, Nicola Scafetta asked if he could present a comment (as a guest weblog) on the Benestad and Schmidt paper on my website, since it will take several months for his comment to make it through the review process. In the interests of presenting the perspectives on the issue of solar climate forcing, Nicola’s post appears below. I also invite Benestad and Schmidt to write responses to the Scaftta contribution which I would be glad to post on my website.

E-Petition to roll climate fund donations into foreign aid budget

After Mark Reckless MP’s spirited defence in parliament of what most people want (66% say no to 0.7% of gdp being earmarked for foreign aid, only 7% in favour), I considered our recent story on £1Bn of our climate fund donations being used to build coal fired power stations in Indonesia, and decided to set up this petition on the govt’s e-petition system.

I don’t for a moment think it’ll achieve enough signatures to force a debate, but at least it might have made some govt person think for a minute while they decided whether to approve it. Click the image or visit the link.
http://epetitions.direct.gov.uk/petitions/72814

Josh: 2015 Calendar of Climate Capers now available in time for Christmas

Get your orders in quickly, Josh’s 2015 calendar is going to run out faster than Mickey Mann’s box of ‘pause excuse chocs’! The indispensable companion to your climate year, every year. Josh’s wry look at the science, culture, media, and politics of Global Warming is out now. Click the image to be whisked away to the order page or use this link.

Einstein papers Digitised

The California Institute of Technology has digitised the writings of Albert Einstein during the first 44 years of his life, translated into English.